Milan – Reggina
To say this is a season defining game for AC is quite appropriate. They must win here and nothing else will do. They face the unthinkable prospect of not qualifying for Europe and for such a big club this would be a disaster. They have 5 games to make up 7 points on Fiorentina with a game in hand and it all begins today. Anything other than 3 points will almost surely finish their season.
At the San Siro AC have been surprisingly poor with only 5 wins from 16 attempts. Only 3 teams have won fewer games at home and it’s a very strange stat for last years European champions.
Bonera and Pato are out but otherwise there is a full squad to chose from.
Reggina also are in desperate need of points but for different reasons. 2nd from bottom and every point is critical, as there are at least 6 teams still in danger of the drop. Only 7 points from a possible 48 on the road is a terrible record and evidence of why Reggina are so low in the table. Still no win and it’s a big ask to beat Milan on their own turf
Montiel and Cascione are the only absentees.
Verdict
Both need the points but in terms of quality Milan have the advantage. Not to qualify for Europe is unthinkable and it could all come down to today. The Milan players have all played on the big stage before so the pressure of today’s task should not faze them. Time to stand up and deliver.
Milan to win 2 – 0 for me
PICK
Milan –1, -1.5 ( 1.7 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Saturdays picks
Fulham V Liverpool
This is a very tricky game for Liverpool here and the odds on their win have been rising all week. Since Everton lost to Chelsea on Thursday night the need for 3 points is not as great and they can afford the luxury of resting several key players. Torres is out and Benitez looks to give Crouch a run. Reports suggest Gerrard is also to be rested owing to a neck injury and without these two Liverpool are severely lacking in creativity.
It’s now or never for Fulham. 2nd from bottom with 4 games to save their season. They gave themselves a huge chance beating Reading away last weekend so confidence will be up. They also have beaten Liverpool on the last 2 trips to Craven Cottage so wont be one bit in awe of their opponents. Relegation would be a disaster for the club as they don’t necessarily have the fanbase or financial backing to insure that they can come back up to the premiership. It’s a case that if they go down then it may be a very long time before they reappear so a win here is crucial.
Verdict
Fulham have huge motivation for this one whereas Liverpool can afford to take their foot off the pedal. They have a season defining game against Chelsea next week and if I were a liverpool player then that is where my priorities would lie. The odds on Fulham are worth a shot in the circumstances, draw no bet in the even of a stalemate.
PICK
Fulham draw no bet (2.63 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Arsenal V Reading
Probably not a very original pick but I watched Reading last week and they were truly awful. They couldn’t pass it, there was no spirit and they never threatened Man City’s defence at all. Kevin Doyle hasn’t scored for months and they look pretty clueless up front.
Wenger has described the last few days as the worst of his Arsenal career. They crashed out of the champion’s league and despite playing well lost 2 – 1 to Man Utd last week ending any hopes of silverware. It may be beyond reach at this stage but 2nd place is still the target and Arsenal are desperate to get back to winning ways if only to restore a little credibility and confidence. If there is any consolation for Arsenal it is that they played exceptionally at times against both Liverpool and United, but had very little luck and were undone by some poor refereeing calls and some poor finishing. Interestingly they haven't won a League game at the Emirates since February 11th and are under pressure to give something back to the home fans.
Verdict
Reading need a result but I don’t think they are capable of threatening Arsenal. The Gunners need a win badly and should pass Reading off the field. If they convert even a quarter of the chances they will create then this should be comfortable.
PICK
Arsenal –1, -1.5 (1.8 @ betdirect) 6 points
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Wigan V Tottenham
Huge game for Wigan here. 3 points and they have one foot on safe soil. 1 points or a defeat and they are going to go down to the wire. Their recent home form is saving them and they are undefeated in 5 including a draw with Arsenal. The main reason they are so good at home is because of their pitch. For those of you who don’t know, they share their field with the rugby team and it is in appalling condition to say the very least. Teams can’t get any rhythm or movement going there and it is very difficult to string passes together.
Tottenham are a pacy side who rely on speed and a crisp passing pattern to cut through opponents. The field will not suit their style. They have taken their foot off the pedal in recent weeks and have very little to play for at this stage as a European spot is out of reach. With little or no motivation apparent it’s hard to see them getting a result. However they are capable of scoring goals at any time so always remain a threat. But and it’s a big but, their defence can be laughable sometimes and its no coincidence that they have the most goals per game ratio. Only 3 sides have conceded more than them.
Verdict
I see a home win here as they are more focused and have more to play for. As I said though Spurs attack always posses a threat so maybe draw no bet is the best option still at very nice odds.
PICK
Wigan DNB ( 1.85 @ game bookers) 7 points
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Southampton V Burnley
The hosts are in severe need of points here today and their recent good home form should be enough to see off a Burnley side who are settled nicely in mid table.
Southampton have picked up the tempo a little and are 4 home games, the last outing being a deserved 2 – 0 win over promotion contenders Bristol City. They have tightened up in the defence and look to keep a 4th consecutive clean sheet at home today.
Burnley are floating kind of aimlessly in mid table. They have lost the last 5 on their travels and appear to bethinking of their summer holidays already. Coming into this game in that form against a more motivated team then its hard to see any reason to side with the visitors.
Verdict
Southampton appear to have all that is needed today for a win. Motivation, better form and a tough team to play on their own patch. Home win
PICK
Southampton win (1.91 @ boylesports) 5 points
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Rochdale V Morecambe
The hosts are in fine form at the moment and can consolidate a playoff spot with a win today. At home they are banging goals in for fun and have scored 20 goals in the last 6 home games.
With Wycombe still searching for that last playoff place Rochdale are not yet home and dry so 3 points is still a requirement.
Morecambe are playing for nothing other than pride as they are out of reach of the playoff spots and their season is pretty much finished. Sitting in 10th spot they can be pretty content with their season so far but will probably see their away form as where they slipped up and they are winless in the last 5 on the road.
Verdict
Motivated against a team with little to play for. Home side are scoring freely and Morecambe have not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games.
PICK
Rochdale (1.62 @ centrebet) 6 points
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Nottingham Forest V Luton
Not much to say about this one. Forest can confirm their playoff spot with a win here today. More importantly the two sides above them Carlisle and Doncaster both have tricky ties today so 2nd place is still very much within their grasp providing they win today. This should provide enough motivation for the them, as they would much prefer to go up automatically instead of the lottery that is the playoffs.
Luton are down and out and already preparing for next season. Their away record (1 – 5 – 15) says it all really and they are only playing for pride. 1 clean sheet in the last 13away outings doesn’t inspire much confidence and they will be looking to get the year over and done with as soon as possible.
PICK
Forest – 1, -1.5 (1.9 @ vcbet) 5 points
This is a very tricky game for Liverpool here and the odds on their win have been rising all week. Since Everton lost to Chelsea on Thursday night the need for 3 points is not as great and they can afford the luxury of resting several key players. Torres is out and Benitez looks to give Crouch a run. Reports suggest Gerrard is also to be rested owing to a neck injury and without these two Liverpool are severely lacking in creativity.
It’s now or never for Fulham. 2nd from bottom with 4 games to save their season. They gave themselves a huge chance beating Reading away last weekend so confidence will be up. They also have beaten Liverpool on the last 2 trips to Craven Cottage so wont be one bit in awe of their opponents. Relegation would be a disaster for the club as they don’t necessarily have the fanbase or financial backing to insure that they can come back up to the premiership. It’s a case that if they go down then it may be a very long time before they reappear so a win here is crucial.
Verdict
Fulham have huge motivation for this one whereas Liverpool can afford to take their foot off the pedal. They have a season defining game against Chelsea next week and if I were a liverpool player then that is where my priorities would lie. The odds on Fulham are worth a shot in the circumstances, draw no bet in the even of a stalemate.
PICK
Fulham draw no bet (2.63 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Arsenal V Reading
Probably not a very original pick but I watched Reading last week and they were truly awful. They couldn’t pass it, there was no spirit and they never threatened Man City’s defence at all. Kevin Doyle hasn’t scored for months and they look pretty clueless up front.
Wenger has described the last few days as the worst of his Arsenal career. They crashed out of the champion’s league and despite playing well lost 2 – 1 to Man Utd last week ending any hopes of silverware. It may be beyond reach at this stage but 2nd place is still the target and Arsenal are desperate to get back to winning ways if only to restore a little credibility and confidence. If there is any consolation for Arsenal it is that they played exceptionally at times against both Liverpool and United, but had very little luck and were undone by some poor refereeing calls and some poor finishing. Interestingly they haven't won a League game at the Emirates since February 11th and are under pressure to give something back to the home fans.
Verdict
Reading need a result but I don’t think they are capable of threatening Arsenal. The Gunners need a win badly and should pass Reading off the field. If they convert even a quarter of the chances they will create then this should be comfortable.
PICK
Arsenal –1, -1.5 (1.8 @ betdirect) 6 points
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Wigan V Tottenham
Huge game for Wigan here. 3 points and they have one foot on safe soil. 1 points or a defeat and they are going to go down to the wire. Their recent home form is saving them and they are undefeated in 5 including a draw with Arsenal. The main reason they are so good at home is because of their pitch. For those of you who don’t know, they share their field with the rugby team and it is in appalling condition to say the very least. Teams can’t get any rhythm or movement going there and it is very difficult to string passes together.
Tottenham are a pacy side who rely on speed and a crisp passing pattern to cut through opponents. The field will not suit their style. They have taken their foot off the pedal in recent weeks and have very little to play for at this stage as a European spot is out of reach. With little or no motivation apparent it’s hard to see them getting a result. However they are capable of scoring goals at any time so always remain a threat. But and it’s a big but, their defence can be laughable sometimes and its no coincidence that they have the most goals per game ratio. Only 3 sides have conceded more than them.
Verdict
I see a home win here as they are more focused and have more to play for. As I said though Spurs attack always posses a threat so maybe draw no bet is the best option still at very nice odds.
PICK
Wigan DNB ( 1.85 @ game bookers) 7 points
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Southampton V Burnley
The hosts are in severe need of points here today and their recent good home form should be enough to see off a Burnley side who are settled nicely in mid table.
Southampton have picked up the tempo a little and are 4 home games, the last outing being a deserved 2 – 0 win over promotion contenders Bristol City. They have tightened up in the defence and look to keep a 4th consecutive clean sheet at home today.
Burnley are floating kind of aimlessly in mid table. They have lost the last 5 on their travels and appear to bethinking of their summer holidays already. Coming into this game in that form against a more motivated team then its hard to see any reason to side with the visitors.
Verdict
Southampton appear to have all that is needed today for a win. Motivation, better form and a tough team to play on their own patch. Home win
PICK
Southampton win (1.91 @ boylesports) 5 points
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Rochdale V Morecambe
The hosts are in fine form at the moment and can consolidate a playoff spot with a win today. At home they are banging goals in for fun and have scored 20 goals in the last 6 home games.
With Wycombe still searching for that last playoff place Rochdale are not yet home and dry so 3 points is still a requirement.
Morecambe are playing for nothing other than pride as they are out of reach of the playoff spots and their season is pretty much finished. Sitting in 10th spot they can be pretty content with their season so far but will probably see their away form as where they slipped up and they are winless in the last 5 on the road.
Verdict
Motivated against a team with little to play for. Home side are scoring freely and Morecambe have not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games.
PICK
Rochdale (1.62 @ centrebet) 6 points
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Nottingham Forest V Luton
Not much to say about this one. Forest can confirm their playoff spot with a win here today. More importantly the two sides above them Carlisle and Doncaster both have tricky ties today so 2nd place is still very much within their grasp providing they win today. This should provide enough motivation for the them, as they would much prefer to go up automatically instead of the lottery that is the playoffs.
Luton are down and out and already preparing for next season. Their away record (1 – 5 – 15) says it all really and they are only playing for pride. 1 clean sheet in the last 13away outings doesn’t inspire much confidence and they will be looking to get the year over and done with as soon as possible.
PICK
Forest – 1, -1.5 (1.9 @ vcbet) 5 points
Friday, April 18, 2008
Eircom League tonight
Cork City V Finn Harps
Theres a huge gulf in class here and Cork should be more than able to take 3 points tonight. Cork City are one of the top 3 sides in this division and are traditionally strong at home. After a poor start to the campaign they have finally found their form with back to back wins over UCD and Galway Utd.
Finn Harps are located in the very North of Ireland and because of this they have many long journeys to deal with. Their squad is not as strong as others and they often struggle on the road. On home turf they are a different prospect and this is where they will pick up the majority of their points.
Verdict
This is as far a journey as Finn Harps will have to make this year and its hard to see them getting any result from the trip. Everything points to a home victory and I think they will do so with a bit to spare
PICK
Cork City –1 (1.81 @ mansion) 6 points
Theres a huge gulf in class here and Cork should be more than able to take 3 points tonight. Cork City are one of the top 3 sides in this division and are traditionally strong at home. After a poor start to the campaign they have finally found their form with back to back wins over UCD and Galway Utd.
Finn Harps are located in the very North of Ireland and because of this they have many long journeys to deal with. Their squad is not as strong as others and they often struggle on the road. On home turf they are a different prospect and this is where they will pick up the majority of their points.
Verdict
This is as far a journey as Finn Harps will have to make this year and its hard to see them getting any result from the trip. Everything points to a home victory and I think they will do so with a bit to spare
PICK
Cork City –1 (1.81 @ mansion) 6 points
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Glasgow derby
Celtic V Rangers
I’m not even going to begin dissecting the ins and outs of this game as it would take too long. It’s a very hard game to call for one simple reason, Celtic have to win. As with any team who have to win the longer the game goes on without a goal then the more adventurous they have to get. This kind of play can be effective if they score but can also be a disaster if they are caught on the counter attack. That’s why this game is far too risky to pick a winner in. Both are capable teams on their day but Rangers are playing much better this year and look set to take the title back to Ibrox. Celtic’s defeat at home to Motherwell almost 2 weeks ago typified their season. They are too inconsistant and have dropped points to too many of the “weaker” sides this year.
Anyway, these derby games usually make for very interesting viewing and have a habit of producing the unexpected, hence why its hard to find a decent betting angle.
I think the game will be very tight and expect a cautious approach from celtic. They have to score but to concede first will be a complete disaster. I think it will be at least the 60th + minute before the game opens up and up to then may be a bit of a bore.
Only one bet appeals to me for this one and that’s for the HT to be a draw. I think its worth a shot for small stakes. The HT draw is available at a best priced 2.1 and for the more adventurous its 2.75 (expekt) for a 0 – 0 HT score.
PICK
Celtic V Rangers – HT draw ( 2.1 @ bet365) 3 points
I’m not even going to begin dissecting the ins and outs of this game as it would take too long. It’s a very hard game to call for one simple reason, Celtic have to win. As with any team who have to win the longer the game goes on without a goal then the more adventurous they have to get. This kind of play can be effective if they score but can also be a disaster if they are caught on the counter attack. That’s why this game is far too risky to pick a winner in. Both are capable teams on their day but Rangers are playing much better this year and look set to take the title back to Ibrox. Celtic’s defeat at home to Motherwell almost 2 weeks ago typified their season. They are too inconsistant and have dropped points to too many of the “weaker” sides this year.
Anyway, these derby games usually make for very interesting viewing and have a habit of producing the unexpected, hence why its hard to find a decent betting angle.
I think the game will be very tight and expect a cautious approach from celtic. They have to score but to concede first will be a complete disaster. I think it will be at least the 60th + minute before the game opens up and up to then may be a bit of a bore.
Only one bet appeals to me for this one and that’s for the HT to be a draw. I think its worth a shot for small stakes. The HT draw is available at a best priced 2.1 and for the more adventurous its 2.75 (expekt) for a 0 – 0 HT score.
PICK
Celtic V Rangers – HT draw ( 2.1 @ bet365) 3 points
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Sunday action
Manchester United V Arsenal
Dam it ive been mulling over this pick for ages and finally decided to go with it.
As an Arsenal fan im gutted with how the season has turned out for us. Tired legs I guess as the squad is just 3 – 4 players short of the real deal. However onto today and I just cant see us getting anything from the game. Flamini is out injured and he is a huge loss to the midfield battle. Fabregas looks dead on his feet at the moment and is badly due a good rest. Man Utd had the luxury of resting Ronaldo, Rooney and Scholes during the week demonstrating their squad dept and this will be crucial to their success today.
Old Trafford is a hard place to visit at the best of times and the Gunners were thumped 4 – 0 there in the FA Cup not so long ago. 15 wins from 17 is a remarkable stat and shows their dominance there. They have 6 clean sheets in the last 7 and the return of Gary Neville is a further boost to them.
Arsenals title challenge has all but gone in my opinion. People will say that there is still an outside chance but lots of results need to work in their favour and it just aint going to happen.
Recent poor results against Boro, Birmingham Wigan and Chelsea have done nothing for their confidence and mentally they look shattered.
Verdict
I feel like im rambling a little so il just cut to the chase. Man Utd will be fresher, more focused and have better attacking options for this game. If they want to then this could be a rout. Arsenals defence is shockingly poor at the moment and Senderos could be taken to the cleaners today
PICK
Manchester United (1.83 @ paddy power) 6 points
Dam it ive been mulling over this pick for ages and finally decided to go with it.
As an Arsenal fan im gutted with how the season has turned out for us. Tired legs I guess as the squad is just 3 – 4 players short of the real deal. However onto today and I just cant see us getting anything from the game. Flamini is out injured and he is a huge loss to the midfield battle. Fabregas looks dead on his feet at the moment and is badly due a good rest. Man Utd had the luxury of resting Ronaldo, Rooney and Scholes during the week demonstrating their squad dept and this will be crucial to their success today.
Old Trafford is a hard place to visit at the best of times and the Gunners were thumped 4 – 0 there in the FA Cup not so long ago. 15 wins from 17 is a remarkable stat and shows their dominance there. They have 6 clean sheets in the last 7 and the return of Gary Neville is a further boost to them.
Arsenals title challenge has all but gone in my opinion. People will say that there is still an outside chance but lots of results need to work in their favour and it just aint going to happen.
Recent poor results against Boro, Birmingham Wigan and Chelsea have done nothing for their confidence and mentally they look shattered.
Verdict
I feel like im rambling a little so il just cut to the chase. Man Utd will be fresher, more focused and have better attacking options for this game. If they want to then this could be a rout. Arsenals defence is shockingly poor at the moment and Senderos could be taken to the cleaners today
PICK
Manchester United (1.83 @ paddy power) 6 points
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Saturday action
Bristol City V Wolves
It would appear that Bristols luck has finally worn out and what better time to oppose them than today with the visit of an inform Wolves side. This is the case of two teams in very different form asWolves are making a late charge for the playoffs while Bristol seem to be doing their best to mess it up. Luckily for them some of the other teams knocking at the door are also slipping up so promotion places are still very much up for grabs.
Bristols recent form has seen then take 1 win from 7 and at home two wins from the last 5. In stark contrast Wolves have won 4 of the last 5 away and seem to have finally clicked. The goals are flowing for them and Ebanks-Blake is in top form .
Facing a home side that look like their luck has run dry wont faze them one bit and Mick McCarthy will have his team fired up.
Verdict
The selection of Wolves has more to do with their excellent recent form than anything else. They are coming to the boil at exactly the right time and are my pick to make it through the playoffs. Draw no bet as caution but I really like a Wolves win here today. Im not big into backing away sides in general but their away form is too good to ignore
PICK
Wolves draw no bet (2.2 @ bet365) 6 points
It would appear that Bristols luck has finally worn out and what better time to oppose them than today with the visit of an inform Wolves side. This is the case of two teams in very different form asWolves are making a late charge for the playoffs while Bristol seem to be doing their best to mess it up. Luckily for them some of the other teams knocking at the door are also slipping up so promotion places are still very much up for grabs.
Bristols recent form has seen then take 1 win from 7 and at home two wins from the last 5. In stark contrast Wolves have won 4 of the last 5 away and seem to have finally clicked. The goals are flowing for them and Ebanks-Blake is in top form .
Facing a home side that look like their luck has run dry wont faze them one bit and Mick McCarthy will have his team fired up.
Verdict
The selection of Wolves has more to do with their excellent recent form than anything else. They are coming to the boil at exactly the right time and are my pick to make it through the playoffs. Draw no bet as caution but I really like a Wolves win here today. Im not big into backing away sides in general but their away form is too good to ignore
PICK
Wolves draw no bet (2.2 @ bet365) 6 points
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Saturday plans
Man City V Chelsea
Normally I wouldn’t be so keen to follow an odds on shot away from home but even with a make or break tie against Fenerbache coming up, Chelsea have enough strength in dept to win this one.
Despite losing 2 – 1 midweek Chelsea created enough chances to win and if they are half as creative today then then they should win.
Man City started the season off very well but have since faded away and have only taken 9 points from the last 30 which says it all really. Their football has become a bit disorganised and it looks a little like their players have lost focus. Chelsea tend to do well against City and already beat the 6 – 0 earlier in the season.
Verdict
No matter what side Grant choses to put out he has enough quality on the bench that would shame other teams. He will want his side to go into next Tuesdays game on the back of a win so we should see a motivated Chelsea side today.
PICK
Chelsea –0.5 (1.74 @ mansion) 5 points
Carlisle V Yeovil
Carlisle’s promotion chances took a huge dent with the 2 – 0 reverse to Nottingham forest midweek but today they have a great chance to put it all back on track.
Despite that loss their home record is amazing with 16 wins from 19 attempts and they will be keen to get back to winning ways.
Yeovil really struggle on the road and this trip is not what they need right now, they have failed to score in the last 5 away games and face a Carlisle side that have kept 10 clean sheets at home.
Verdict
Carlisle will be determined to get back to winning ways and luckily for them they face a side who are just awful travellers. Carlisle to win here
PICK
Carlisle win (1.59 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Normally I wouldn’t be so keen to follow an odds on shot away from home but even with a make or break tie against Fenerbache coming up, Chelsea have enough strength in dept to win this one.
Despite losing 2 – 1 midweek Chelsea created enough chances to win and if they are half as creative today then then they should win.
Man City started the season off very well but have since faded away and have only taken 9 points from the last 30 which says it all really. Their football has become a bit disorganised and it looks a little like their players have lost focus. Chelsea tend to do well against City and already beat the 6 – 0 earlier in the season.
Verdict
No matter what side Grant choses to put out he has enough quality on the bench that would shame other teams. He will want his side to go into next Tuesdays game on the back of a win so we should see a motivated Chelsea side today.
PICK
Chelsea –0.5 (1.74 @ mansion) 5 points
Carlisle V Yeovil
Carlisle’s promotion chances took a huge dent with the 2 – 0 reverse to Nottingham forest midweek but today they have a great chance to put it all back on track.
Despite that loss their home record is amazing with 16 wins from 19 attempts and they will be keen to get back to winning ways.
Yeovil really struggle on the road and this trip is not what they need right now, they have failed to score in the last 5 away games and face a Carlisle side that have kept 10 clean sheets at home.
Verdict
Carlisle will be determined to get back to winning ways and luckily for them they face a side who are just awful travellers. Carlisle to win here
PICK
Carlisle win (1.59 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Wednesday night review
Where to start. Sincere apologies to anyone who followed. For some strange reason the first bets of the calender month always do badly. I have a system designed to pick in form home/away teams and it has worked fairly well up until the last few weeks for some reason, hence where the Carlisle and Doncaster picks came from.( i dont guess in case your wondering!) More annoyingly is the fact that Gillingham also qualified for tonight but i left them out as i figured i had enough selections.
For tomorrow i think i will keep my ideas to myself and play small as i dont wish to lose money for others. I shall be back at the weekend.
For tomorrow i think i will keep my ideas to myself and play small as i dont wish to lose money for others. I shall be back at the weekend.
League action tonight
Sheffield Wednesday V Coventry
It’s all to play for in this battle to avoid the drop. A win for the home side here will bring them level on points with the visitors.
Coventry have pulled away slowly from the dropzone with some excellent home displays but on the road they have been poor. Their last win came way back in early December and they have really struggled to score with just 3 goals in the last 9 away games.
Sheffield Wednesday are leaving it late and know that defeat tonight will be a disaster. Their home form has been ok considering some of the opposition they have had to face recently, Stoke, West Brom Cardiff and QPR have all been recent visitors and have been made to work hard for a result and a few of them have left empty handed.
Verdict
A real close encounter is to be expected. The result is critical for both sides and im swaying for the home side here. Their recent performances against better opposition have been notable and Coventry are not the best travellers. Home win draw no bet is my choice, as I really can’t see Coventry leaving with 3 points.
PICK
Sheffield Wednesday – Draw no bet (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points
Carlisle V Nottingham Forest
With a home record of 16 wins from 18 attempts its hard to see why bookies are offering 2+ for Carlisle here. Fair enough Nottingham are not so far behind in the league standings but one look at their away record doesn’t inspire much confidence in them. Just 2 wins in the last 11 against a side who have won 14 on the trot. Carlisle and Doncaster are fighting it out for that second place behind Swansea. Carlisle have 3 points more with a game in hand so another win tonight could possibly see them make a late charge for the title. At home they ooze confidence and Brunton Park has become a real fortress. Both sides have a few injury worries to contend with as Carlisle plan without Scott Dobie, Danny Graham, Jeff Smith, Joe Garner and skipper Paul Thirlwell.
Forest must do without Kris Commons, Davies and James Perch.
Verdict
While both are missing a few players I think the advantages still lie with Carlisle and with that home record as impressive as it is they have to be backed.
PICK
Carlisle –0.5 (2.21 @ canbet) 4 points
Doncaster V Leeds
The last of my Tuesday previews and once again I can only guess that the bookies are pricing this one up on reputation rather than current form and ability.
Doncaster are 14 points ahead of the visitors and have won 5 of the last 6 at home. Leeds have won 2 of the last 10 away from elland road and even failed to beat bottom side Port Vale last time out.
For Doncaster Sean O'Driscoll has no new injuries to worry about with Greer the only absentee.
Leeds United defender Rui Marques and midfielder David Prutton are both out after picking up knocks.
Verdict
Not one of my more detailed previews but I think that the bookies have made an error here in offering such good odds for the home side. Their home form compared to the away form of Leeds only points to one thing. Leeds have struggled a little because they are such a big club and every team wants to beat them. Doncaster already won at Elland road and should complete the double tonight. They need the win to keep up the fight for the second automatic promotion spot and wont give anything away softly tonight.
PICK
Doncaster win (2.26 @ pinnacle) 4 points
It’s all to play for in this battle to avoid the drop. A win for the home side here will bring them level on points with the visitors.
Coventry have pulled away slowly from the dropzone with some excellent home displays but on the road they have been poor. Their last win came way back in early December and they have really struggled to score with just 3 goals in the last 9 away games.
Sheffield Wednesday are leaving it late and know that defeat tonight will be a disaster. Their home form has been ok considering some of the opposition they have had to face recently, Stoke, West Brom Cardiff and QPR have all been recent visitors and have been made to work hard for a result and a few of them have left empty handed.
Verdict
A real close encounter is to be expected. The result is critical for both sides and im swaying for the home side here. Their recent performances against better opposition have been notable and Coventry are not the best travellers. Home win draw no bet is my choice, as I really can’t see Coventry leaving with 3 points.
PICK
Sheffield Wednesday – Draw no bet (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points
Carlisle V Nottingham Forest
With a home record of 16 wins from 18 attempts its hard to see why bookies are offering 2+ for Carlisle here. Fair enough Nottingham are not so far behind in the league standings but one look at their away record doesn’t inspire much confidence in them. Just 2 wins in the last 11 against a side who have won 14 on the trot. Carlisle and Doncaster are fighting it out for that second place behind Swansea. Carlisle have 3 points more with a game in hand so another win tonight could possibly see them make a late charge for the title. At home they ooze confidence and Brunton Park has become a real fortress. Both sides have a few injury worries to contend with as Carlisle plan without Scott Dobie, Danny Graham, Jeff Smith, Joe Garner and skipper Paul Thirlwell.
Forest must do without Kris Commons, Davies and James Perch.
Verdict
While both are missing a few players I think the advantages still lie with Carlisle and with that home record as impressive as it is they have to be backed.
PICK
Carlisle –0.5 (2.21 @ canbet) 4 points
Doncaster V Leeds
The last of my Tuesday previews and once again I can only guess that the bookies are pricing this one up on reputation rather than current form and ability.
Doncaster are 14 points ahead of the visitors and have won 5 of the last 6 at home. Leeds have won 2 of the last 10 away from elland road and even failed to beat bottom side Port Vale last time out.
For Doncaster Sean O'Driscoll has no new injuries to worry about with Greer the only absentee.
Leeds United defender Rui Marques and midfielder David Prutton are both out after picking up knocks.
Verdict
Not one of my more detailed previews but I think that the bookies have made an error here in offering such good odds for the home side. Their home form compared to the away form of Leeds only points to one thing. Leeds have struggled a little because they are such a big club and every team wants to beat them. Doncaster already won at Elland road and should complete the double tonight. They need the win to keep up the fight for the second automatic promotion spot and wont give anything away softly tonight.
PICK
Doncaster win (2.26 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Champions league Tuesday night
Roma V Manchester United
This is a hard one to call with Totti out. On one hand people will tell you that he goes missing in the big games and that he wont be missed, however I think he’s been pivotal in their good form of late and think he will be missed. This is the fifth time these two have met inside the last 12 months so they should be somewhat accustomed to each other at this stage.
Roma’s league run has had much success owing to their home record where they have 12 wins from 15 attempts. They now have 11 consecutive wins at the Stadio Olimpico scoring 23 and keeping 7 clean sheets in the process. They progressed to this round after beating Real Madrid home and away 2 – 1 on both occasions with Daniele De Rossi and Alberto Aquilani both impressing.
Francesco Totti is out with a thigh strain but De Rossi and Vucinic, who will take Totti’s place return from their suspensions, while Perrotta is suspended.
Manchester United have been in tremendous form in the last few months and it would take a brave man to bet against them winning the League title again. They cruised past Aston Villa 4 – 0 on Sunday and in truth it could have been 10 – 0 as they created so many chances. They seem to have everything in their favour for this one as they have all their big guns available and Ronaldo, Rooney are in excellent form. Despite an early season blip United have been just as dominant away from home and have 6 wins from the last 8 outings. Theres a real belief that this is the year that they can recapture the Champions league title and it will take a big effort to knock them out.
Verdict
I feel that Man Utd will be happy here with a draw as they should definitely be too strong on their own patch in the second leg. Roma are good in front of home fans but without Totti its very hard to see them break down a tough United defence. United would be happy to take a draw here and finish the job back in Old Trafford and this is how I see this one panning out. 1 – 1 would be a good result for Manchester as they would have an away goal. Personally il be having small stakes on the 0 – 0 and 1 – 1 scorelines and the draw as my selection.
Good luck
PICK
Roma/Manchester United – draw ( 3.1 @ paddy power) 3 points
Shalke 04 V Barcelona
It seems that when the draw was made for this round that everyone wanted to get Shalke. As time has progressed though now is the best time to play Barca as domestically they have been having trouble, especially away from home. With just 4 wins away from Camp Nou all season and just 1 win in the last 6 they have slipped back to third and have been overtaken by Villareal. They were 2 – 0 up at Betis on Saturday before eventually going down 3 – 2 and the fickle fans are getting restless.
Ronaldinho, Deco and Lionel Messi are all still out and Etoo faces a late fitness test.
So what they don’t need right now is an away tie to a somewhat unknown force. With three wins and a draw in their last four matches Shalke will go into this one fully confident of causing an upset. They have very little to lose and as ive mentioned this is the best time to be getting Barcelona to visit. They have scored in all but two home games this year and with Kuranyi and Altintop ready to go, it could make for an interesting night.
Jermaine Jones is suspended and Albert Streit and Ivan Rakitić are both out with injuries so a bit of re-jigging is needed to the midfield.
Verdict
Why not a home win? The home side will come out to win this one and I would never consider backing Barcelona without Messi, Deco or Ronaldinho. The atmosphere should be very intimidating and this could be one of those great European nights. I think the match has been priced up on reputation rather than recent form and ability and im siding with Shalke here.
PICK
Shalke win (3.75 @ expekt) 3 points
This is a hard one to call with Totti out. On one hand people will tell you that he goes missing in the big games and that he wont be missed, however I think he’s been pivotal in their good form of late and think he will be missed. This is the fifth time these two have met inside the last 12 months so they should be somewhat accustomed to each other at this stage.
Roma’s league run has had much success owing to their home record where they have 12 wins from 15 attempts. They now have 11 consecutive wins at the Stadio Olimpico scoring 23 and keeping 7 clean sheets in the process. They progressed to this round after beating Real Madrid home and away 2 – 1 on both occasions with Daniele De Rossi and Alberto Aquilani both impressing.
Francesco Totti is out with a thigh strain but De Rossi and Vucinic, who will take Totti’s place return from their suspensions, while Perrotta is suspended.
Manchester United have been in tremendous form in the last few months and it would take a brave man to bet against them winning the League title again. They cruised past Aston Villa 4 – 0 on Sunday and in truth it could have been 10 – 0 as they created so many chances. They seem to have everything in their favour for this one as they have all their big guns available and Ronaldo, Rooney are in excellent form. Despite an early season blip United have been just as dominant away from home and have 6 wins from the last 8 outings. Theres a real belief that this is the year that they can recapture the Champions league title and it will take a big effort to knock them out.
Verdict
I feel that Man Utd will be happy here with a draw as they should definitely be too strong on their own patch in the second leg. Roma are good in front of home fans but without Totti its very hard to see them break down a tough United defence. United would be happy to take a draw here and finish the job back in Old Trafford and this is how I see this one panning out. 1 – 1 would be a good result for Manchester as they would have an away goal. Personally il be having small stakes on the 0 – 0 and 1 – 1 scorelines and the draw as my selection.
Good luck
PICK
Roma/Manchester United – draw ( 3.1 @ paddy power) 3 points
Shalke 04 V Barcelona
It seems that when the draw was made for this round that everyone wanted to get Shalke. As time has progressed though now is the best time to play Barca as domestically they have been having trouble, especially away from home. With just 4 wins away from Camp Nou all season and just 1 win in the last 6 they have slipped back to third and have been overtaken by Villareal. They were 2 – 0 up at Betis on Saturday before eventually going down 3 – 2 and the fickle fans are getting restless.
Ronaldinho, Deco and Lionel Messi are all still out and Etoo faces a late fitness test.
So what they don’t need right now is an away tie to a somewhat unknown force. With three wins and a draw in their last four matches Shalke will go into this one fully confident of causing an upset. They have very little to lose and as ive mentioned this is the best time to be getting Barcelona to visit. They have scored in all but two home games this year and with Kuranyi and Altintop ready to go, it could make for an interesting night.
Jermaine Jones is suspended and Albert Streit and Ivan Rakitić are both out with injuries so a bit of re-jigging is needed to the midfield.
Verdict
Why not a home win? The home side will come out to win this one and I would never consider backing Barcelona without Messi, Deco or Ronaldinho. The atmosphere should be very intimidating and this could be one of those great European nights. I think the match has been priced up on reputation rather than recent form and ability and im siding with Shalke here.
PICK
Shalke win (3.75 @ expekt) 3 points
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