Feeling good about this weekend, I just have to take Liverpool to give Derby a hammering, early on in the season I though Derby would make it tough for teams to play but after seeing the way that they were outplayed at Tottenham, I think they will be on the receiving end of some serious beatings this year. Derby opened their season with an encouraging 2-2 draw against Portsmouth, however it's all gone wrong since then. Their performances seem to have taken a major turn for the worse, with confidence seeping out of the team with each defeat. Their defeat in the carling cup during the week to lowly Blackpool will have been a further blow and a trip to Anfield is the last thing they need right now.
Stevie G is a doubt and it’s likely that Benitez will rest him but with or without him they will be far to strong at home for Derby. Liverpool conceded just 7 goals at Anfield in the league last season, which indicates just how hard they are to break down. Given that fact and Derby’s ineffective front line its highly unlikely that Liverpool’s goal will be breached. Torres to make hay.
Liverpool – 2 goals and a Liverpool clean sheet are the recommendations.
Coventry v Preston
Coventry are on a high, They’ve scored eleven goals already this season; conceding just two. Dowie is manager of the month for August, they have 3 wins away already and all of the Coventry strikers have scored so far.
Preston have struggled since losing David Nugent, His importance to the club was never so evident as it has been in recent times. They have nothing to offer up front. Morale is at an all time low with reports of behind the scenes fighting and chairman Derek Shaw is on the way out of the club.
Ill stick with basic logic here, in form scoring team against a low confidence club lacking up front
PICKS
Liverpool – 2 goals asian handicap(2.1 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Liverpool clean sheet (1.68 @ betfair) 2 points
Coventry win (1.98 @ betfair) 3 points
Coventry clean sheet (2.72 @ betfair) 2 points
More to follow tomorrow morning
Friday, August 31, 2007
Thursday, August 30, 2007
30th August UEFA CUP
Bit of a late post here but i fully expect Helsingborg to knock Drogheda out of Europe tonight. Reasons being, Drogs away form is very poor and their league success is mostly down to an impressive home record. I wont complicate things here, if Drogheda could only manage a 1 - 1 draw at home then all logic points towards them struggling tonight. Henrik Larson is back in form and Helsingborg seem to be hitting form in their last few games
PICKS
Helsingborg -1 goal ( 1.87 @betfair) 3 points
PICKS
Helsingborg -1 goal ( 1.87 @betfair) 3 points
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Sunday 26th August evening pick
Valencia V Villareal
Opening day presents a great chance for Valencia to get off to a good start. Valencia at the mestalla are usually solid and over the summer they’ve brought in some decent palyers such as Zigic, Helguera, Alexis, Arizmendi and Hildebrand to their squad.
Zigic is not yet fit and he will miss this game though as will Vicente and Del Horno.
D Silva, Villa and Morientes should have more than enough in attack.
Last year Villareal won this fixture 3 – 2 but Diego Forlan was the main man then and has since departed for Athletico Madrid. G Franco, is out suspended and Villareal will lack attacking options.
Capdevila and Cazorla have joined, but in summary I think the loss of Forlan will be the biggest factor this season.
I simply think Valencia have too much firepower with the likes of Villa and Morientes and they should get off to a 3 pointer tonight.
PICKS
Valencia win (1.86 @ betfair) 3 points
Valencia 2 - 0 correct score (9.6 @ betfair) ½ a point
Valencia 3 – 0 correct score (19.5 @ betfair) ½ a point
Opening day presents a great chance for Valencia to get off to a good start. Valencia at the mestalla are usually solid and over the summer they’ve brought in some decent palyers such as Zigic, Helguera, Alexis, Arizmendi and Hildebrand to their squad.
Zigic is not yet fit and he will miss this game though as will Vicente and Del Horno.
D Silva, Villa and Morientes should have more than enough in attack.
Last year Villareal won this fixture 3 – 2 but Diego Forlan was the main man then and has since departed for Athletico Madrid. G Franco, is out suspended and Villareal will lack attacking options.
Capdevila and Cazorla have joined, but in summary I think the loss of Forlan will be the biggest factor this season.
I simply think Valencia have too much firepower with the likes of Villa and Morientes and they should get off to a 3 pointer tonight.
PICKS
Valencia win (1.86 @ betfair) 3 points
Valencia 2 - 0 correct score (9.6 @ betfair) ½ a point
Valencia 3 – 0 correct score (19.5 @ betfair) ½ a point
Sunday 26th August early pick
Today sees the day ive been waiting for for the last two weeks. Kerry take on Dublin in the All-Ireland semi final football championship. Much has been made over the past two weeks of the poor form of the Kerry side when they defeated Monaghan by the minimum after trailing for most of the game. In truth the defending champion’s form has been pretty sub standard overall, as they seem to be going through the motions big time. Their main players such as Dara O se, Donaghy and Galvin haven’t got going yet either but surely the sight of the Dub jersey today will spark some motivation.
As for Dublin they have been having a good year so far but still crave an All-Ireland title which they last won in 1995 which is a major wait for the capital. They’ve sorted out all the free taking problems this year and Mark Vaughan though not contributing as much from open play, has been deadly from frees. The same old problems are still there for Dublin though, they tend to lose concentration for 10 –15 minutes of every game and they just haven’t been punished for it. YET. Though Kerry haven’t been playing with the style usually associated with them, they are by far the biggest challenge that Dublin will face this year. Dublins full back will be well tested out today and expect 6 ft 5 kerry full forward Kieran Donaghy to create havoc. This game has captured the imagination of the country and Croke Park is a sell out. Got my hands on a ticket last week but couldn’t travel today because of work commitments.
I’m trying to approach this from a betting perspective without following my heart and while everything may point to a Dublin win based on form I feel Kerry’s greater experience and squad dept will prevail.
Most people are tipping Dublin at odds of up to 2.6 while Kerry are available at about 1.9 ish. This is a tricky game to call so I’m going to play it in running. It will be decided in midfield and il give Dara the edge
Dara o Se is 10 to get man of the match at paddy powers and il have a little on that, he had an off day in the last game but this is possibly the former player of the years last game and I expect him to deliver.
Also taking my good friend Declan O Sullivan to score a goal anytime at 6 also with pp, he’s in cracking form this year and will be feeding from passes from Donaghy and is a great price to score. (he scored first goal in last game)
KO is at 3.30 pm
PICKS
Dara O Se man of the match (10 @ paddy power) 1 point
Declan O Sullivan anytime goal scorer (6 @ paddy power) 1 point
As for Dublin they have been having a good year so far but still crave an All-Ireland title which they last won in 1995 which is a major wait for the capital. They’ve sorted out all the free taking problems this year and Mark Vaughan though not contributing as much from open play, has been deadly from frees. The same old problems are still there for Dublin though, they tend to lose concentration for 10 –15 minutes of every game and they just haven’t been punished for it. YET. Though Kerry haven’t been playing with the style usually associated with them, they are by far the biggest challenge that Dublin will face this year. Dublins full back will be well tested out today and expect 6 ft 5 kerry full forward Kieran Donaghy to create havoc. This game has captured the imagination of the country and Croke Park is a sell out. Got my hands on a ticket last week but couldn’t travel today because of work commitments.
I’m trying to approach this from a betting perspective without following my heart and while everything may point to a Dublin win based on form I feel Kerry’s greater experience and squad dept will prevail.
Most people are tipping Dublin at odds of up to 2.6 while Kerry are available at about 1.9 ish. This is a tricky game to call so I’m going to play it in running. It will be decided in midfield and il give Dara the edge
Dara o Se is 10 to get man of the match at paddy powers and il have a little on that, he had an off day in the last game but this is possibly the former player of the years last game and I expect him to deliver.
Also taking my good friend Declan O Sullivan to score a goal anytime at 6 also with pp, he’s in cracking form this year and will be feeding from passes from Donaghy and is a great price to score. (he scored first goal in last game)
KO is at 3.30 pm
PICKS
Dara O Se man of the match (10 @ paddy power) 1 point
Declan O Sullivan anytime goal scorer (6 @ paddy power) 1 point
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Saturday 25th August picks
A few matches that catch my eye this weekend,
Wolves V Blackpool
The price on Wolves seems very high to me, (1.89 @ betfair).Wolves main problem has bee scoring and maybe last year but for their poor strike rate they could be playing in the premiership right now. The signing of Freddy Eastwood seems to have boosted their firepower and he and Wolves are playing with great confidence at the moment despite an opening day blunder. Mick McCarthy has managed at the highest level and I fully expect Wolves to push for a top 4 finish this season. They simply have to win games such as today’s and I think Eastwood can push them towards 3 points today
Aston Villa V Fulham
Villa have played some decent stuff this year but haven’t been able to get themselves over the final furlong but I expect them to defeat Fulham at Villa park today. Villa striker John Carew scored both the Norwegian goals in midweek against Argentina so his confidence will be sky high. Berger and Sorenen are out.
Fulham lost both their forwards McBride and Bouazza to injuries last week and they are out of this game. D Kamara will make his full debut instead.
Villa’s home advantage will surely be good enough to get their first 3 points against a slightly depleted Fulham side more renowned for their home form.
West Ham V Wigan
I watched Wigan play Sunderland last week and while they recorded a convincing 3 – 0 win I think it was more a case of Sunderland playing rubbish than Wigan doing anything spectacular. Wigan could have had about 5 penalties such was the weakness of the mackems. West Ham finally got the show up and running away at Birmingham, the game itself wasn’t a classic but it should be a springboard for bigger and better things at Upton Park this season. Lucas Neill is back in action after injury while we won’t know until close to KO if Ljungberg and Parker can play. Bellamy and Zamora should be the difference so once again this weekend, I’m going with the home team to get 3 points.
Finally I think that Arsenal will be able to beat Man City at home. The City goal has lead a charmed life so far but it cant last, Van Persie an co will surely test young Schmeicel out thoroughly and I think Man City’s bubble will be well and truly burst by the gunners. Almunia is in goal for Arsenal because Lehmann is “injured” though that’s a story for another day. After his last few cock ups there is a big chance for Almunia today to stake a claim for a regular starting spot and he should be fired up for this one. Man city didn’t offer much up front last week and I think Arsenal will shut them out today .I’m gonna go a little greedy on this and take Arsenal – 1 goal (money back if they win by the 1)
2.18 at bet365 looks good to me. Will also go with an Arsenal clean sheet
Another game to take note of is Cowdenbeath at home to Raith Rovers in the scottish 2nd division, Cowdenbeath are facing a virus crisis and have had a request to have the game cancelled turned down. They have the bare team to chose from and a first Fife derby of the season is not the best thing to be facing at this time. News has got out and Raith have fallen to 1.7 ish and falling all the time. Ill give Raith a go, but only 2 points mind as I’m a bit cautious of these type of things.
(Many thanks to forum poster “Skittle” at www.goonersguide.com/forum-frame.htm for bringing it to the attention of others)
PICKS
Wolves (1.89 @ betfair) 3 points
Aston Villa (1.82 @ pinnacle) 3 points
West Ham (2.04 @ pinnacle) 3 points
Arsenal – 1 (2.18 @ bet365) 2 points (money back if Arsenal win by 1 goal)
Arsenal clean sheet (2.28 @ betfair) 2 points
Raith Rovers (currently 1.71 @ betfair) 2 points
After last weeks disaster i hope to get back on track
Wolves V Blackpool
The price on Wolves seems very high to me, (1.89 @ betfair).Wolves main problem has bee scoring and maybe last year but for their poor strike rate they could be playing in the premiership right now. The signing of Freddy Eastwood seems to have boosted their firepower and he and Wolves are playing with great confidence at the moment despite an opening day blunder. Mick McCarthy has managed at the highest level and I fully expect Wolves to push for a top 4 finish this season. They simply have to win games such as today’s and I think Eastwood can push them towards 3 points today
Aston Villa V Fulham
Villa have played some decent stuff this year but haven’t been able to get themselves over the final furlong but I expect them to defeat Fulham at Villa park today. Villa striker John Carew scored both the Norwegian goals in midweek against Argentina so his confidence will be sky high. Berger and Sorenen are out.
Fulham lost both their forwards McBride and Bouazza to injuries last week and they are out of this game. D Kamara will make his full debut instead.
Villa’s home advantage will surely be good enough to get their first 3 points against a slightly depleted Fulham side more renowned for their home form.
West Ham V Wigan
I watched Wigan play Sunderland last week and while they recorded a convincing 3 – 0 win I think it was more a case of Sunderland playing rubbish than Wigan doing anything spectacular. Wigan could have had about 5 penalties such was the weakness of the mackems. West Ham finally got the show up and running away at Birmingham, the game itself wasn’t a classic but it should be a springboard for bigger and better things at Upton Park this season. Lucas Neill is back in action after injury while we won’t know until close to KO if Ljungberg and Parker can play. Bellamy and Zamora should be the difference so once again this weekend, I’m going with the home team to get 3 points.
Finally I think that Arsenal will be able to beat Man City at home. The City goal has lead a charmed life so far but it cant last, Van Persie an co will surely test young Schmeicel out thoroughly and I think Man City’s bubble will be well and truly burst by the gunners. Almunia is in goal for Arsenal because Lehmann is “injured” though that’s a story for another day. After his last few cock ups there is a big chance for Almunia today to stake a claim for a regular starting spot and he should be fired up for this one. Man city didn’t offer much up front last week and I think Arsenal will shut them out today .I’m gonna go a little greedy on this and take Arsenal – 1 goal (money back if they win by the 1)
2.18 at bet365 looks good to me. Will also go with an Arsenal clean sheet
Another game to take note of is Cowdenbeath at home to Raith Rovers in the scottish 2nd division, Cowdenbeath are facing a virus crisis and have had a request to have the game cancelled turned down. They have the bare team to chose from and a first Fife derby of the season is not the best thing to be facing at this time. News has got out and Raith have fallen to 1.7 ish and falling all the time. Ill give Raith a go, but only 2 points mind as I’m a bit cautious of these type of things.
(Many thanks to forum poster “Skittle” at www.goonersguide.com/forum-frame.htm for bringing it to the attention of others)
PICKS
Wolves (1.89 @ betfair) 3 points
Aston Villa (1.82 @ pinnacle) 3 points
West Ham (2.04 @ pinnacle) 3 points
Arsenal – 1 (2.18 @ bet365) 2 points (money back if Arsenal win by 1 goal)
Arsenal clean sheet (2.28 @ betfair) 2 points
Raith Rovers (currently 1.71 @ betfair) 2 points
After last weeks disaster i hope to get back on track
Monday, August 20, 2007
20th August picks
Today im looking to Portugal for a bit of profit in the Naval vs Belenenses game. Basically i cant see them home team winning here, yhey are in a bit of a slump at the moment (pre season form) and their home advantage hasnt meant much to them in previous times. Their squad is much weaker than last season as they lost Nei, their top scorer, Fernando, the captain and defender, Fajardo, their playmaker, and Lito.
Belenenses did much better than anticipated last year, the aim was mid table and they finished 5th. Their mid season form was good and they only narrowly lost to Real Madrid. They have strenghtened their squad and brought in some players: Devic a central defender, Mendonça a decent forward, Roncatto and Hugo Leal. I give Belenenses a great chance of winning this game but as its still early sesaon il take them on level ball just in case Naval snatch a draw.
PICK
Belenenses -0 (2.04 @ ladbrokes an excellent priceas its 1.7 in most places) 4 points
Belenenses did much better than anticipated last year, the aim was mid table and they finished 5th. Their mid season form was good and they only narrowly lost to Real Madrid. They have strenghtened their squad and brought in some players: Devic a central defender, Mendonça a decent forward, Roncatto and Hugo Leal. I give Belenenses a great chance of winning this game but as its still early sesaon il take them on level ball just in case Naval snatch a draw.
PICK
Belenenses -0 (2.04 @ ladbrokes an excellent priceas its 1.7 in most places) 4 points
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Sunday 19th picks
As I write Manchester City are winning the derby 1 – 0, goal came against the run of play but as I decided to play this game in running I layed Man U before the game at 1.9. I have to admit I was worried as they started off much better but couldn’t convert any chances. Still its only HT and this could still go any way, Ive traded out and can relax and focus on the other games.
Blackburn V Arsenal starts shortly and I will leave this alone. Its just too hard to predict how the travelling and midweek games will affect certain players and if pushed id nearly go for Blackburn, they have home advantage, and Arsenal always struggle against their robust physical style of play. Blackburn are playing with confidence, and with the goalscoring threat they can certainly cause Arsenal some problems.
Liverpool V Chelsea
Rafael Benitez had a lot of success against opposite number Jose Mourinho in cup competitions, but not in the premiership. That was until Chelsea visited Anfield last year and a classy Liverpool ran out easy 2-0 winners, severely damaging Chelsea's title hopes.
All four Champions League meetings between the sides have finished with under 2.5 goals, as did both league games last season. Neither team can afford to lose but I think Liverpool may just be good enough to sneak a 1 – 0 win. Unders for me and something also on the draw at HT.
PICKS
Liverpool V Chelsea under 2.5 goals (1.61 @ betfair) 3 points
Liverpool V Chelsea HT Draw (2.14 @ betfair) 1 point
Blackburn V Arsenal starts shortly and I will leave this alone. Its just too hard to predict how the travelling and midweek games will affect certain players and if pushed id nearly go for Blackburn, they have home advantage, and Arsenal always struggle against their robust physical style of play. Blackburn are playing with confidence, and with the goalscoring threat they can certainly cause Arsenal some problems.
Liverpool V Chelsea
Rafael Benitez had a lot of success against opposite number Jose Mourinho in cup competitions, but not in the premiership. That was until Chelsea visited Anfield last year and a classy Liverpool ran out easy 2-0 winners, severely damaging Chelsea's title hopes.
All four Champions League meetings between the sides have finished with under 2.5 goals, as did both league games last season. Neither team can afford to lose but I think Liverpool may just be good enough to sneak a 1 – 0 win. Unders for me and something also on the draw at HT.
PICKS
Liverpool V Chelsea under 2.5 goals (1.61 @ betfair) 3 points
Liverpool V Chelsea HT Draw (2.14 @ betfair) 1 point
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Update 18 August
Gone through the figures for the month of August and it seems that I'm half a point down in total bets this month. Considering the bad run i seem to be on (apart from the correct score the other night) and today's disaster area that was the premiership -0.5 of a point is to be expected.
I'm a glass half full kinda guy though and there is still a good few days left in August. Ive no intention of finishing under for the month either.
Tomorrows footy sees some interesting clashes. Sit back, relax and enjoy as the Manchester derby kicks off at 1.30 pm. Arsenal and Blackburn(3pm) are back on home soil after European journeys midweek and to top it off is the clash of Liverpool and Chelsea at 4 pm at Anfield.
3 hard games to predict, and straight off the 3 draws look most likely, Man City will be full of confidence going into this one and with Rooney and Ronaldo out, Man Utd look weakened.
Arsenal and Blackburn had midweek journeys in Europe and will be tired, I cant bring myself to bet against Arsenal but i fancy Blackburn to get a good result here.
Liverpool have a great chance to confirm themselves as genuine contenders this year, they have spent enough money and now they have to deliver, i just read that John Terry is back and this will boost the Chelsea defence and confidence big time.
il have to sleep on it before making any decisions. Back in the morning with my thoughs.
I'm a glass half full kinda guy though and there is still a good few days left in August. Ive no intention of finishing under for the month either.
Tomorrows footy sees some interesting clashes. Sit back, relax and enjoy as the Manchester derby kicks off at 1.30 pm. Arsenal and Blackburn(3pm) are back on home soil after European journeys midweek and to top it off is the clash of Liverpool and Chelsea at 4 pm at Anfield.
3 hard games to predict, and straight off the 3 draws look most likely, Man City will be full of confidence going into this one and with Rooney and Ronaldo out, Man Utd look weakened.
Arsenal and Blackburn had midweek journeys in Europe and will be tired, I cant bring myself to bet against Arsenal but i fancy Blackburn to get a good result here.
Liverpool have a great chance to confirm themselves as genuine contenders this year, they have spent enough money and now they have to deliver, i just read that John Terry is back and this will boost the Chelsea defence and confidence big time.
il have to sleep on it before making any decisions. Back in the morning with my thoughs.
Friday, August 17, 2007
weekend 17th August Picks
Another full bill of footy action to get stuck into this weekend.
Fulham V Middlesborough
First impressions are that Fulham at 2.2 look good value to beat a Boro side that haven’t really got any momentum going yet. Problem is guessing where and when they will deliver. Boro always strike me as the unpredictable type, winning games when they shouldn’t and losing games they should be winning. They have signed Mido whom I think is a good signing but it will take him a while to settle in at the Riverside. Tomorrow is a game that all points to a Fulham win and this worries me, enough to through me off backing Fulham. Draw in my opinion but a bet I wont be taking.
Tottenham V Derby
Good ole Spurs, as I said somewhere else I never back them at odds on because more often than not they disappoint. 1.5 is just far too skinny for me although I expect them to win. Derby are a battling side, as expected they didn’t show Man City any respect mid week and they won’t shy from tackles in any match. Their squad however is limited and I can see them scoring too many this season. I think once again tomorrow Tottenham players will not have the space and time to create many chances and open free flowing football will be limited, its under 2.5 all the way for me here with a small cover on 2 – 1 and 3 – 0 scoreline to Spurs.
Birmingham V West Ham
Will Birmingham keep scoring? 4 goals in two games but 5 conceded makes less impressive reading. The fact is that they are well able to create goal chances but also not able to keep them out at the back. Queudrue is out but this shouldn’t matter too much.
West Ham were poor against Man City, maybe they believed too much in themselves and rode their summer luck too far. They are however much better than they showed and are similar enough to Birmingham in the fact that they are able to score but are poor in defence. They Signed Kieran Dyer this week, a player whom I will reserve judgement on just yet. To cut a long story short, overs is the pick for me, I haven’t enough faith in Birmingham to back them until they sort out their defence. I think both teams will score and 2 –1 or 2 – 2 is likely.
Reading V Everton
I don’t normally take aways but Everton have played good stuff so far. Reading at the Madejski are usually hard to oppose but I think they will do well to take a point tomorrow. Reading will be without Duberry,K Cisse , D Kitson and Lita.
Once again to cut a long story short, I see Everton scoring tomorrow, however I also think Reading will get one, overs is likely but im taking Everton +0 on the asian. I feel this has a great chance as Everton have had an extra days rest over Reading and coupled with the confidence from their two games so far they have the edge.
That’s it for the time being, if I get time il post a few other bets up tomorrow afternoon between 1 – 2.30
PICKS
Tottenham V Derby Under 2.5 (1.94 @ Pinnacle or 1.96 @ betfair) 3 points
Tottenham 2 –1 scoreline (8.8 @ betfair) ½ a point
Tottanham 3 – 0 scoreline (13.5 @ betfair) ½ a point
Birmingham V West Ham over 2.5 goals (2.2 @ bet365) 2 points
Everton +0 (2.13 @ bet365) 4 points (money back if it’s a draw)
Fulham V Middlesborough
First impressions are that Fulham at 2.2 look good value to beat a Boro side that haven’t really got any momentum going yet. Problem is guessing where and when they will deliver. Boro always strike me as the unpredictable type, winning games when they shouldn’t and losing games they should be winning. They have signed Mido whom I think is a good signing but it will take him a while to settle in at the Riverside. Tomorrow is a game that all points to a Fulham win and this worries me, enough to through me off backing Fulham. Draw in my opinion but a bet I wont be taking.
Tottenham V Derby
Good ole Spurs, as I said somewhere else I never back them at odds on because more often than not they disappoint. 1.5 is just far too skinny for me although I expect them to win. Derby are a battling side, as expected they didn’t show Man City any respect mid week and they won’t shy from tackles in any match. Their squad however is limited and I can see them scoring too many this season. I think once again tomorrow Tottenham players will not have the space and time to create many chances and open free flowing football will be limited, its under 2.5 all the way for me here with a small cover on 2 – 1 and 3 – 0 scoreline to Spurs.
Birmingham V West Ham
Will Birmingham keep scoring? 4 goals in two games but 5 conceded makes less impressive reading. The fact is that they are well able to create goal chances but also not able to keep them out at the back. Queudrue is out but this shouldn’t matter too much.
West Ham were poor against Man City, maybe they believed too much in themselves and rode their summer luck too far. They are however much better than they showed and are similar enough to Birmingham in the fact that they are able to score but are poor in defence. They Signed Kieran Dyer this week, a player whom I will reserve judgement on just yet. To cut a long story short, overs is the pick for me, I haven’t enough faith in Birmingham to back them until they sort out their defence. I think both teams will score and 2 –1 or 2 – 2 is likely.
Reading V Everton
I don’t normally take aways but Everton have played good stuff so far. Reading at the Madejski are usually hard to oppose but I think they will do well to take a point tomorrow. Reading will be without Duberry,K Cisse , D Kitson and Lita.
Once again to cut a long story short, I see Everton scoring tomorrow, however I also think Reading will get one, overs is likely but im taking Everton +0 on the asian. I feel this has a great chance as Everton have had an extra days rest over Reading and coupled with the confidence from their two games so far they have the edge.
That’s it for the time being, if I get time il post a few other bets up tomorrow afternoon between 1 – 2.30
PICKS
Tottenham V Derby Under 2.5 (1.94 @ Pinnacle or 1.96 @ betfair) 3 points
Tottenham 2 –1 scoreline (8.8 @ betfair) ½ a point
Tottanham 3 – 0 scoreline (13.5 @ betfair) ½ a point
Birmingham V West Ham over 2.5 goals (2.2 @ bet365) 2 points
Everton +0 (2.13 @ bet365) 4 points (money back if it’s a draw)
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Wednesday 15 August picks
Tonight sees 6 fixtures in the premiership, as well as a vital fixture for Arsenal away to Sparta Prague in champions league qualifying. I cant admit to knowing a whole pile about Prague but i know enough about Arsenal to say that a best priced 1.83 is not enough to tempt me, especially away from home. Wenger will most likely to be happy with keeping a clean sheet and to finish the job off in the Emirates. Unders if i were to chose.
Il stay closer to home tonight and on first glances Man City at home to Derby looks good as well as Fulham at home to Bolton.
Starting elsewhere first, Birmingham take on Sunderland at home. Sunderland got off to a great start at the weekend albeit taking a late winner to beat Tottenham. Birmingham although going down 3 -2 to Chelsea at Stamford bridge impressed many with their determination and hard work. Birmingham make only one change for this game with Parnaby coming in for Queudrue. Im my opinion going on the weekend form the advantage is slightly in Birminghams favour, i know they lost but were much more impressive in the manner in which they took the game to Chelsea and thats the kind of positive attitude that may keep them up. Sunderland however despite winning, didnt create much of note and were possibly satisfied with the draw untill Chopras late winner. I can see no other finish than a draw here and although im not usually a draw backer im prepared to give it a go here. il go with 1/2 a point on correct score draws of 0 - 0 and 2 - 2 and a single point on the 1 -1 scoreline as it is the one most likely in my opinion.
Man city are bankers against Derby or are they? My only rule last year was never to back Man City or Tottenham at odds on and it saved me many times.
Man City are best priced 1.62 and theres something just not right about seeing them so low, regardless of the opposition. I see this game going either two ways, Derby turn up and play tough physical football and give City no space unlike west ham last week meaning City will struggle to create any chances or, and its a big or, Man City prove last weekends win was no fluke and give derby a beating by 2 or 3 goals. il put 2 points on the second option and take Man City -1 goal on the asian at 2.13. I still feel City can nick this so even if they win by the one goal cushion we'll get our money back.
Finally, Fulham at home to Bolton. A year ago id have probably taken Bolton, how things have changed. Despite tipping Arsenal at the weekend i was very impressed with Fulham, they took an early lead and had several chances to get a second but didnt take any of them, nerves perhaps? im not sure but they should have beaten Arsenal and were most unlucky to go down to two late goals. Warner was fantastic in goal and i hope he has little to do tonight. Bolton were well beaten 3 -1 at home to Newcastle last weekend, Kevin Davies and Vaz Te are both out and Davies especially is a big loss. Andy o Brien looks set to play for Bolton in defence and this wouldnt inspire me much if i were a bolton fan. Fulham to get their home season off to a good start.
In the other game i think Chelsea may sneak a win over Reading, I would also take Portsmouth except for the fact that Tevez is making his first start so anything is possible here and il leave it alone. Wigan should also sneak a win over Boro though im not tempted by it.
PICKS
Birmingham/Sunderland 0 - 0 (9.5 @ VC) 1/2 a point
Birmingham/Sunderland 1 - 1 (7.2 @ betfair) 1 point
Birmingham/Sunderland 2 - 2 (21 @ betfair) 1/2 point
Man City - 1 goal (2.13 @ betfair) 2 points
Fulham win (2.44 @ pinnacle or 2.46 @ betfair) 3 points
A 7 point outlay on the evening, hopefully things will pick up and the month will get back on track.
Il stay closer to home tonight and on first glances Man City at home to Derby looks good as well as Fulham at home to Bolton.
Starting elsewhere first, Birmingham take on Sunderland at home. Sunderland got off to a great start at the weekend albeit taking a late winner to beat Tottenham. Birmingham although going down 3 -2 to Chelsea at Stamford bridge impressed many with their determination and hard work. Birmingham make only one change for this game with Parnaby coming in for Queudrue. Im my opinion going on the weekend form the advantage is slightly in Birminghams favour, i know they lost but were much more impressive in the manner in which they took the game to Chelsea and thats the kind of positive attitude that may keep them up. Sunderland however despite winning, didnt create much of note and were possibly satisfied with the draw untill Chopras late winner. I can see no other finish than a draw here and although im not usually a draw backer im prepared to give it a go here. il go with 1/2 a point on correct score draws of 0 - 0 and 2 - 2 and a single point on the 1 -1 scoreline as it is the one most likely in my opinion.
Man city are bankers against Derby or are they? My only rule last year was never to back Man City or Tottenham at odds on and it saved me many times.
Man City are best priced 1.62 and theres something just not right about seeing them so low, regardless of the opposition. I see this game going either two ways, Derby turn up and play tough physical football and give City no space unlike west ham last week meaning City will struggle to create any chances or, and its a big or, Man City prove last weekends win was no fluke and give derby a beating by 2 or 3 goals. il put 2 points on the second option and take Man City -1 goal on the asian at 2.13. I still feel City can nick this so even if they win by the one goal cushion we'll get our money back.
Finally, Fulham at home to Bolton. A year ago id have probably taken Bolton, how things have changed. Despite tipping Arsenal at the weekend i was very impressed with Fulham, they took an early lead and had several chances to get a second but didnt take any of them, nerves perhaps? im not sure but they should have beaten Arsenal and were most unlucky to go down to two late goals. Warner was fantastic in goal and i hope he has little to do tonight. Bolton were well beaten 3 -1 at home to Newcastle last weekend, Kevin Davies and Vaz Te are both out and Davies especially is a big loss. Andy o Brien looks set to play for Bolton in defence and this wouldnt inspire me much if i were a bolton fan. Fulham to get their home season off to a good start.
In the other game i think Chelsea may sneak a win over Reading, I would also take Portsmouth except for the fact that Tevez is making his first start so anything is possible here and il leave it alone. Wigan should also sneak a win over Boro though im not tempted by it.
PICKS
Birmingham/Sunderland 0 - 0 (9.5 @ VC) 1/2 a point
Birmingham/Sunderland 1 - 1 (7.2 @ betfair) 1 point
Birmingham/Sunderland 2 - 2 (21 @ betfair) 1/2 point
Man City - 1 goal (2.13 @ betfair) 2 points
Fulham win (2.44 @ pinnacle or 2.46 @ betfair) 3 points
A 7 point outlay on the evening, hopefully things will pick up and the month will get back on track.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Tuesday night 14th August pick
Sorry folks, wont have time to do a major write up tonight. Things didnt go well over the week-end and im glad i kept stakes to a minimum. Early season form can be tricky enough predict and i hope to get baack on track tonight. Tottenham and Everton are playing in the premiership. I fancy a draw in that one but as im not a man for taking draws il leave it alone.
Instead i look to the north where Rangers are taking on Crvena Zvezda at 9pm in the first leg of the Champions League qualifying round . Walter Smith is doing a decent job at ibrox and getting to the champions league is a financial priority. Goals and a decent cushion are a must as Rangers want to have a lead going away to Crvena Zvezda(formerly known as Red Star Belgrade) though im open to correction on that.
PICKS
Rangers win (1.65 @ betfair) 4 points
Rangers HT/FT (2.66 @ betfair) 2 points
Instead i look to the north where Rangers are taking on Crvena Zvezda at 9pm in the first leg of the Champions League qualifying round . Walter Smith is doing a decent job at ibrox and getting to the champions league is a financial priority. Goals and a decent cushion are a must as Rangers want to have a lead going away to Crvena Zvezda(formerly known as Red Star Belgrade) though im open to correction on that.
PICKS
Rangers win (1.65 @ betfair) 4 points
Rangers HT/FT (2.66 @ betfair) 2 points
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Sunday 12th Evening Pick
Man Utd V Reading
Defending champs kick off the season at home to Reading. Fergie has splashed out big time over the summer buying several quality players and competition for places will be tough. Attack wise they look very good, Rooney, Ronaldo, Nani and co will score plenty of goals between them this season. Defensively they are not the strongest but with Van Der Sar in goal they have one of the best goalies in the business.
Reading will do well to repeat last years success, they sold Steve Sidwell to Chelsea and he is a major loss, it will be interesting to see if Doyle and Lita can score as many as they did last year.
Today Lita is out injured and he’s a big loss. With Liverpool winning yesterday, Arsenal winning today and Chelsea closing in on a victory as I write, Man u know what they have to do. Early days I know but anything but a win today for Man U will be viewed as a disaster, they have to keep up the pace and I expect them to score a few today. The only thing that bothers me today is that Fulham scored against Arsenal, Birmingham have hit 2 so far against Chelsea so I wouldn’t rule out a Reading goal meaning taking Man U on the handicap may be tricky, -1.5 is only 1.8ish so il stay away. Instead il go with over 3.5 goals as I expect we may be in for a few goals but as I said I think Reading may also get one.
PICK
Man Utd V Reading over 3.5 goals (2.78 @ betfair) 2 points
Defending champs kick off the season at home to Reading. Fergie has splashed out big time over the summer buying several quality players and competition for places will be tough. Attack wise they look very good, Rooney, Ronaldo, Nani and co will score plenty of goals between them this season. Defensively they are not the strongest but with Van Der Sar in goal they have one of the best goalies in the business.
Reading will do well to repeat last years success, they sold Steve Sidwell to Chelsea and he is a major loss, it will be interesting to see if Doyle and Lita can score as many as they did last year.
Today Lita is out injured and he’s a big loss. With Liverpool winning yesterday, Arsenal winning today and Chelsea closing in on a victory as I write, Man u know what they have to do. Early days I know but anything but a win today for Man U will be viewed as a disaster, they have to keep up the pace and I expect them to score a few today. The only thing that bothers me today is that Fulham scored against Arsenal, Birmingham have hit 2 so far against Chelsea so I wouldn’t rule out a Reading goal meaning taking Man U on the handicap may be tricky, -1.5 is only 1.8ish so il stay away. Instead il go with over 3.5 goals as I expect we may be in for a few goals but as I said I think Reading may also get one.
PICK
Man Utd V Reading over 3.5 goals (2.78 @ betfair) 2 points
Sunday 12th early Pick
The “big 3” are all in action today and it will be interesting to see how they all start off.
First up is Arsenal V Fulham.
Arsenal face a big test this year as they have to head into the year minus Thierry Henry. Now in my opinion two years back this would have been a disaster as they relied so much on him to do the business. But the fact is that last year he never got going at all and gave a long time out through injury. I believe his loss wont be as big a factor as people say and they will do very well this year. Arsenal have been going very well in pre-season and I expect it to continue today against the cottagers. Part of the reason that Arsenal fell away last year is that they didn’t step it up a gear against the lesser teams and to be considered contenders this year they will simply have to put teams like Fulham away.
Today Adebayour and Silva are out. Will Van Persie deliver? That’s the big question, I think he will and the 2.1 anytime score today looks worth a little maybe.
Fulham today are without Hughes, Ian Pearce, Christanval and Lee Cook. Many have Fulham tipped for relegation but I don’t think they are that bad at the moment. An opening away fixture to the gunners is something they could have done without though
I think Arsenal will lay down a marker today and win 2 – 0 or 3 – 0
PICKS
Arsenal –1.5 (2.25 @ betfair) 2 points
Arsenal clean sheet (2.04 @ betfair) 1 point
Ive more for today, should be up in the next two hours
First up is Arsenal V Fulham.
Arsenal face a big test this year as they have to head into the year minus Thierry Henry. Now in my opinion two years back this would have been a disaster as they relied so much on him to do the business. But the fact is that last year he never got going at all and gave a long time out through injury. I believe his loss wont be as big a factor as people say and they will do very well this year. Arsenal have been going very well in pre-season and I expect it to continue today against the cottagers. Part of the reason that Arsenal fell away last year is that they didn’t step it up a gear against the lesser teams and to be considered contenders this year they will simply have to put teams like Fulham away.
Today Adebayour and Silva are out. Will Van Persie deliver? That’s the big question, I think he will and the 2.1 anytime score today looks worth a little maybe.
Fulham today are without Hughes, Ian Pearce, Christanval and Lee Cook. Many have Fulham tipped for relegation but I don’t think they are that bad at the moment. An opening away fixture to the gunners is something they could have done without though
I think Arsenal will lay down a marker today and win 2 – 0 or 3 – 0
PICKS
Arsenal –1.5 (2.25 @ betfair) 2 points
Arsenal clean sheet (2.04 @ betfair) 1 point
Ive more for today, should be up in the next two hours
Saturday, August 11, 2007
SOME WEEKEND PICKS
Finally back to the good stuff.
The main problem is identifying value from so many selections after a few months of nit-picking. Probably it is best not to go in too heavy so early in the season but for tommorrow i cant resist a few punts as theres so much available to us.
Starting with the premiership the first pick that hit me was Blackburn away to Middlesborough. I think Boro will struggle this year, Although Sanli, Aliadiere and Young have joined, Viduka's gone, many are looking for Yakubu and its hard to see where goals will come from, for tomorrow, Woodgate is out injured (big surprise there) and so is Pogetez.
Blackburn are a good battling side and always hard to bet against, they have signed Roque Sants Cruz, ex Bayern star and they conyinue this year with mostly the same pool of players as last year. Simply i can see them scoring tomorrow, Boro i can not. Blackburn are about 2.02 on the asian at bet365 and thats good enough for me. (Caution, still early days) Almost 3 in places for the straight win
I also like West Ham to beat Man city, West Ham have made good signings and will hope to get off to a good start this year and not be in the same trouble they were last year. Expect Bellamy and Ljungberg to play although Faubert and Parker are out.
Sven and Man City have also made good signings and i expect good things of them this year but not this early. They are still trying to bond the team together and it may take a few games before they click. West Ham to get off to a good start for me.
Theres plenty other interesting ties on but no value in taking Chelsea, Arsenal or Man U as singles unless your planing big sums which i dont recommend, Liverpool away is a tricky first tie but at just over evens the pool will attract planty of money, not from me though.
Instead we'll look for a few teams to add up in an acca, Chelsea have injury problems but should still have far too much for Brum , Man U should beat a Kitson less Reading at home. Arsenal have been playing well in pre-season and will be out to prove a point that there is life after Henry, so we'll add them. The final leg in my acca is Hibernian (-1.5 goals), now i know that i tipped Gretna last week but this week they should once again be out of their dept against Hibs, who got off to a good start away to Hearts last week winning 1 - 0.
these 4 pay out a nice 4.2 at bet365 and its worth 1 point.
(Accas like this may be for mugs, but i cant resist this one)
PICKS
Blackburn +0 (2.02 @ bet365) 2 points
West Ham (2.1 @ betdirect) 2 points
Quad acca (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man U, Hibs - 1.5) (4.2 a@bet365) 1 point
Only a 5 point outlay as we try and settle in to the new season, no point in getting carried away just yet
The main problem is identifying value from so many selections after a few months of nit-picking. Probably it is best not to go in too heavy so early in the season but for tommorrow i cant resist a few punts as theres so much available to us.
Starting with the premiership the first pick that hit me was Blackburn away to Middlesborough. I think Boro will struggle this year, Although Sanli, Aliadiere and Young have joined, Viduka's gone, many are looking for Yakubu and its hard to see where goals will come from, for tomorrow, Woodgate is out injured (big surprise there) and so is Pogetez.
Blackburn are a good battling side and always hard to bet against, they have signed Roque Sants Cruz, ex Bayern star and they conyinue this year with mostly the same pool of players as last year. Simply i can see them scoring tomorrow, Boro i can not. Blackburn are about 2.02 on the asian at bet365 and thats good enough for me. (Caution, still early days) Almost 3 in places for the straight win
I also like West Ham to beat Man city, West Ham have made good signings and will hope to get off to a good start this year and not be in the same trouble they were last year. Expect Bellamy and Ljungberg to play although Faubert and Parker are out.
Sven and Man City have also made good signings and i expect good things of them this year but not this early. They are still trying to bond the team together and it may take a few games before they click. West Ham to get off to a good start for me.
Theres plenty other interesting ties on but no value in taking Chelsea, Arsenal or Man U as singles unless your planing big sums which i dont recommend, Liverpool away is a tricky first tie but at just over evens the pool will attract planty of money, not from me though.
Instead we'll look for a few teams to add up in an acca, Chelsea have injury problems but should still have far too much for Brum , Man U should beat a Kitson less Reading at home. Arsenal have been playing well in pre-season and will be out to prove a point that there is life after Henry, so we'll add them. The final leg in my acca is Hibernian (-1.5 goals), now i know that i tipped Gretna last week but this week they should once again be out of their dept against Hibs, who got off to a good start away to Hearts last week winning 1 - 0.
these 4 pay out a nice 4.2 at bet365 and its worth 1 point.
(Accas like this may be for mugs, but i cant resist this one)
PICKS
Blackburn +0 (2.02 @ bet365) 2 points
West Ham (2.1 @ betdirect) 2 points
Quad acca (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man U, Hibs - 1.5) (4.2 a@bet365) 1 point
Only a 5 point outlay as we try and settle in to the new season, no point in getting carried away just yet
Friday, August 10, 2007
Back to the real stuff
Sorry folks about the lack of input recently. Ive been trying to keep a level head and not bet on every thing in front of me. Also due to work commitments ive been kind of restricted to internet access.
Thankfully the English leagues kick off tomorrow so we can get back to the normal routine of trying to pick a winner from 60 odd matches.
The problem with these matches is that its hard to figure out what way teams are feeling after the lay off, some take much longer than others to get going while theres always some unexpected team that comes flying out of the traps.
Be back with my thoughts and picks later.
Thankfully the English leagues kick off tomorrow so we can get back to the normal routine of trying to pick a winner from 60 odd matches.
The problem with these matches is that its hard to figure out what way teams are feeling after the lay off, some take much longer than others to get going while theres always some unexpected team that comes flying out of the traps.
Be back with my thoughts and picks later.
Saturday, August 4, 2007
August 4th scottish league starts
Inverness V Rangers kicks off the SPL today at 12.30
Rangers know that because of a terrible start last year they handed the SPL title to Celtic and will be eager to get off to a good start this year. However teams always rise their games for the old firm and today will be bo different, i see Rangers getting the win, just about and considered unders at 2 but instead ive gone for a rangers clean sheet at cracking odds of 2.26 (betfair)
The other match that catches my eye is the eagerly awaited clash of Gretna at home to Falkirk. This will be Gretna's first year in the SPL after rising up the leagues. The big question is will they be able to handle the step up. I think they will and people shouldnt underestimate them. Todays a big day for them and they will be well tuned in to get a result against Falkirk (KO at 3pm) The game is tight and the draw appaels at 3.5 but im gonna go the Gretna to sneak a win and get the campaign off to the right start, will take them -0 goals though so if its a draw we get our money back. Only 1 point mind as we try and figure out early season form.
PICK
Rangers clean sheet (2.24 @ Betfair) 2 points
Correct score
Rangers 1 - 0 (7.2 @ generally available) 1/2 point
Rangers 2 - 0 (7.2 @ generally available) 1/2 point
Gretna -0 (2 @ betfair) 1 point
Rangers know that because of a terrible start last year they handed the SPL title to Celtic and will be eager to get off to a good start this year. However teams always rise their games for the old firm and today will be bo different, i see Rangers getting the win, just about and considered unders at 2 but instead ive gone for a rangers clean sheet at cracking odds of 2.26 (betfair)
The other match that catches my eye is the eagerly awaited clash of Gretna at home to Falkirk. This will be Gretna's first year in the SPL after rising up the leagues. The big question is will they be able to handle the step up. I think they will and people shouldnt underestimate them. Todays a big day for them and they will be well tuned in to get a result against Falkirk (KO at 3pm) The game is tight and the draw appaels at 3.5 but im gonna go the Gretna to sneak a win and get the campaign off to the right start, will take them -0 goals though so if its a draw we get our money back. Only 1 point mind as we try and figure out early season form.
PICK
Rangers clean sheet (2.24 @ Betfair) 2 points
Correct score
Rangers 1 - 0 (7.2 @ generally available) 1/2 point
Rangers 2 - 0 (7.2 @ generally available) 1/2 point
Gretna -0 (2 @ betfair) 1 point
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
JULY - PROFIT/LOSS
Good month overall despite not placing a lot of bets. Counting down the days till the football starts up again and i can concentrate on punting on the stuff i know best.
July profit = +20.36 (slightly flattered by the 9/1 winner)
Id happily take this every month though.
July profit = +20.36 (slightly flattered by the 9/1 winner)
Id happily take this every month though.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
