29th July evening pick

No time for too much explaining today,
GAA bets for me, very tight game in store and the draw is way too high, il be very surprised if at worst you dont get the chance to trade out your liability

PICKS
Waterford V Cork draw (10 @betfair) 1 point

highest scoring half = the 2nd (1.95@bet365) 3 points

25th july Asian cup

Semi finals of the Asian cup take place tomorrow. first thing that stands out to me is the price on Japan to beat Saudi Arabia (2.16 at betfair) Having watched the quarters i was much more impressed with Japan than the Saudi's. Japan will have the added advantage of having played all 4 previous matches in Hanoi. Going with the fact that i rate Japan much higher on previous viewing, im going with 2 points on them to win in 90 mins and 4 points on them to qualify

The second semi see's Iraq v Korea Republic. Again having watched the quarters i cant figure out why Iraq are priced so high at 3.65 (betfair)
In the quarterfinal match against Vietnam, Iraq started without several players yet still took the lead after 90 seconds and won 2 - 0 in the end. Korea played Iran in wet difficult conditions and it took penalties to separate the two at the end of 120 scoreless minutes.
I see this game as a 50/50 chance and give Iraq an equal chance of progression at a nice price.

PICKS
Japan to beat Saudi Arabia in 90 minutes (2.16 @betfair) 2 points
Japan to qualify (1.5 @ betfair) 4 points

Iraq to beat Korea republic (3.65 @ betfair) 1 point
Iraq to qualify (2.38 @ betfair) 2 point

The Open Championship- UK Golf

Instead of going with the usual and backing Woods I'm looking for a different angle this year.
Top Amateur, there are 6 competing and its most likely that it will be lucky if 2 even make the cut. Rory McIlroy is my pick here, he is Ireland's next hope for a serious golfer and i fancy his chances of making the cut this week-end, he's a top player and has been practising on the course in recent times, he's currently trading at about 3.25 on betfair and that's good enough for me.
From a trading point of view, Woods is out early on the first day and if he shoots a half decent score there will be plenty of over eager people backing him down so i would recommend having some money on him in the start and laying off your liability when the panic starts.
Also going with a few people for a top 10 finish at 1/2 a point each
all placed at betfair

Padraig Harrington (odds of 4) like his chances of doing well here so i was surprised to see 4 available

Stuart Appleby (odds of 7.8) Nice guy, on his day he's as good as anyone else around,pipped by Els in 2002 play-off at Muirfield. Very hot and cold though, lets hope he blows hot this w-end

Darren Clarke (odds of 11) seems to be coming back to a bit of form, again, like Appleby he can be super or rubbish, a lot of people will be cheering him on this w-end, including me.

David Higgins (odds of 75) long shot i know but hey. Grew up playing on a links course, not a very long hitter but very accurate and this is more important. Well up for his first major.


PICKS

Rory McIlroy (top amatuer) (3.25) 2 points

Top Ten finish

Padraig Harrington (4) 1/2 point
Stuart Appleby (7.8) 1/2 point
Darren Clarke (11) 1/2 point
David Higgins (75) 1/2 point

18th July evening pick

Derry v FC Pyunik (Champions League qualification)

Derry City are priced up pretty short here tonight at 1.6. A definite trading opportunity if you lay them to start with. This is a very good Armenia Team with the Armenian Back 4 and Goalkeeper all playing. The same Back 5 who beat Poland in a recent Euro '08 game 1-0. They have won 7 League titles on the trot. Give the strength in defence and the fact that Derry will not want to concede an away goal im plumping for unders and fell its quite safe

PICK
Derry v FC Pyunik
under 2.5 (1.88 at betfair) 5 points

18th July morning pick

Two picks in the Asian cup for tomorrow morning. Iran play Malaysia, Poor ole Malaysia are in a terrible state, hammered in their first two games and now play Iran who need a decent win to ensure they qualify. Finding a value bet here is hard though as the odds (1.14) are far too low unless you plan on putting a huge sum on it.
Instead il go for 4 or more goals at betfair, if Uzbekistan were good enough to score 5 against Malaysia then i think Iran should at least do the same.

Uzbekistan v China is the second match, Uzbekistan needs all 3 points from this match to join the others going into the knockout stage but China only require a draw. China should have too much for Uzbek but as a draw is enough il exercise some caution and take the draw no bet option just in case.


PICKS
Malaysia V Iran 4 goals or more (1.78 at betfair) 2 points

China (Draw no bet) (1.5 at bet365) 2 points

15th July Copa final

Copa final tonight and its Argentina V Brazil, dont have much to say on this one, i think that people are overating Brazil's chances simply cause of past glories. They have a weak team and Gilberto is also out tonight. The Argies want this one and they want it bad, they have been excellent all through and there wont be any let up tonight.
Have a few picks for this match and hope to keep the good form running

http://www.channelsurfing.net/watch-copa-america.html
above is a link for anyone interested

PICKS
Argentina to win in 90 minutes (1.92 at betfair) 3 points
Argentina -1.0 on the asian handicap (2.39 at bet365) 2 points
Over 2.5 goals (1.84 at betfair) 2 points

Correct score
Argentina to win 3 - 0 (22 at betfair)
Argentina to win 3 - 1 (16 at betfair)
1/2 a point on each

14th July evening pick

Copa america 3rd/4th place play off tonight, fancy Mexico to do it in normal time but as theres not a whole pile at stake i wont back them, instead ive gone for over 2.5 goals as the main bet and a small punt on over 3.5.
Teams wont be as cautious as in previous rounds and i think we'll see an open attacking game with plenty of chances and probably lots of corners also.

Pick (Copa America)
Mexico V Uruguay over 2.5 goals (1.77 betfair) 4 points
over 3.5 goals (2.98 betfair) 1 point

14th July morning pick in the asian cup

One pick for the afternoon, going with a large stake on Uzbekistan to beat Malaysia in the asian cup. After an unpredictable start to the tournament the pace has been set, the weaker teams have been separated from the stronger teams and the betting pattern looks a little easier to follow.
Uzbek played some decent stuff against Iraq in the first game but eventually gave in to Iraq'a greater fitness and power, they welcome back their top striker Maksim Shatskikh of Dinamo Kiev, who was suspended for the 1st match, adding to their firepower.
For Malaysia, its damage limitation, the 5 - 1 defeat to China was embarrasing and riddled with silly mistakes. i expec tthem to up it a good bit today but it wont be enough as Uzbek need the win far more whereas Malaysia are hoping to restore pride to the national jersey.
Anything other than an uzbek win will be a major shock today hence the 8 points.

Pick
Uzbekistan to beat Malaysia (Asian cup) 8 points

1.5 available at william hill, 1.4 elsewhere, price is dropping fast though

(will be back later to have a look at some other games in the gaa and copa)

Have one pick today starting in an hour or so. Tennis this morning as i expect Moya to beat Soderling, Moya was available at about 2 but theres been a serious plunge of money on him and he has dropped to 1.6 - 1.68 generally. Moya been in good form of late, Soderling has been moaning a lot about everything since he got to Sweden and it seems hes not in the best form.

Pick
Moya to beat Soderling (tennis) 2 points
1.64 at vc and 1.68 at betfair

The big move and a fresh start

Hey guys, i had to move things over here short term as i try and sort out the web problems ive been having.

On the betting front, nothing appeals to me tonight, id my eye on one punt in the mlb but il keep the € for the weekend instead as ive a bit more confidence in some picks coming up on Saturday and sunday.