Munster V Toulouse
Date: Saturday, May 24
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17.00 (16.00 GMT)
What a game that’s in store for us here this evening and I can’t wait for it. I had tickets and was all set to go but unfortunately for me work commitments got the better of me so il have to make do with watching this one from the comfort of my home.
Anyone who knows what they are talking about will agree that these two are the best club teams in Europe and one couldn’t have asked for a better pairing in the final.
After both France and Ireland underachieved at the world cup a few months ago there is a sense of national pride resting on the outcome of this game and that is especially the case for the Munster side.
Munster boss Declan Kidney is in charge for his last outing before taking over the national job and he has named the same side that unconvincingly defeated Saracens in the semi final. As usual a lot today will depend on O Gara and his kicking ability. After the disaster he had at the world cup he is back on song and playing really well at club level. Munster are able to call upon the likes of Doug Howlett and Ian Dowling on the wings, whilst at scrumhalf, Tomas O'Leary has been chosen once more over Peter Stringer.
Munster:
Beat Saracens 18-16 in the semi-final
Beat Gloucester 16-3 in the quarterfinal
Beat London Wasps 19-3
Lost to Clermont Auvergne 19-26
Beat Llanelli Scarlets 22-13
Beat Llanelli Scarlets 29-16
Beat Clermont Auvergne 36-13
Lost to London Wasps 23-24
Toulouse are a typically strong French side and have plenty of experience. To be fair to them I think the draw has been a little kinder to them so far with them topping their group courtesy of 4 bonus points picked up along the way. That set up a home tie with Cardiff, which they were never going to lose. After that they had semi final debutantes London Irish to contend with which they won 20 – 15.
Names like Cédric Heymans, Yannick Jauzion, Jean-Baptiste Elissalde and Byron Kelleher would put fear into most teams and add in forward such as Thierry Dusautoir, Shaun Sowerby, Patricio Albacete, Fabien Pelous, William Servat and you know you have a good team. The clash of Pelous and O Connell will be crucial, as they will line up against each other in the line out
Toulouse:
Beat London Irish 21-15 in the semi-final
Beat Cardiff Blues 41-17 in the quarterfinal
Beat Edinburgh 34-10
Lost to Leinster 13-20
Beat Leicester Tigers 22-11
Lost to Leicester Tigers 9-14
beat Leinster 33-6
Beat Edinburgh 19-15
Verdict
I really can’t call this one as it’s a toss of a coin for me. Both are very strong and maybe the slight advantage is with the French. But Munster have over 60,000 fans making the journey and they are loud and fanatical which should create an electric atmosphere. With it being so tight I can only see the winner taking this game by the slimmest of margins so perhaps the best choice is to take both teams to win by 1 – 5 points margin with a tiny saver on the draw. Remember two of the previous finals have been drawn so it’s not impossible and at odds of 20/1 is worth a small shot
PICKS
Munster to win by 1 – 5 points = 6 @ ladbrokes – 3 points
Toulouse to win by 1 – 5 points = 7 @ ladbrokes – 3 points
Munster/ Toulouse draw = 21 @ paddy power – 1 point
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Saturday, May 17, 2008
FA Cup final
Portsmouth V Cardiff
An amazing FA Cup comes to an end today and to be fair to everyone I don’t think many would have expected either of the finalists to get this far.
Lets start with Portsmouth first, They have beaten four Championship sides – Ipswich, Plymouth, Preston and West Brom on the way to the final though and with Lauren (three medals), Sol Campbell (two) and Kanu (two) on board they have the advantage in terms of experience.
Their final few matches in the season will have been an area of concern though as they lost four in a row and failed to score for the last five-and-a-half hours.
Jermaine Defoe is cup tied and his absence is a huge loss, considering his impact since he arrived at the club.
Cardiff will aim to be the first team outside the top flight to win the FA Cup since West Ham way back in 1980. The bluebirds have the one title, which came way back in 1927.
When you compare the path of each team to the final it is hard to make a big case for Cardiff, the only premiership team they beat along the way was Middlesborough who froze on the day compared to Pompeys run which included wins over Ipswich, Plymouth and the Baggies, teams who all finished above Cardiff in the league.
The only Cardiff players to have experienced a final before are veteran strikers Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Robbie Fowler, the latter who hasn’t played since December.
Verdict
When all is said and done this is still a final and anything is possible. Nobody has given Cardiff a sniff here and Portsmouth have been favourites for a long time now. In terms of experience Pompey have a crucial advantage and this may be a huge factor today. All their players have played on big occasions before and while it may be a bit unfair to say that Cardiff will buckle under the pressure, it will be very interesting to see how they cope with the thought of a packed stadium and millions watching on tv’s around the world.
Id expect a slow cautious start from both sides here and we may have to wait a while before things open up. Eventually though I expect Portsmouth’s class and experience to show through.
Two selections for me here
Draw HT/ Portsmouth FT- 4.5 @ bet365 (2 points)
Portsmouth win – 1.73 @ bet365 ( 6 points)
An amazing FA Cup comes to an end today and to be fair to everyone I don’t think many would have expected either of the finalists to get this far.
Lets start with Portsmouth first, They have beaten four Championship sides – Ipswich, Plymouth, Preston and West Brom on the way to the final though and with Lauren (three medals), Sol Campbell (two) and Kanu (two) on board they have the advantage in terms of experience.
Their final few matches in the season will have been an area of concern though as they lost four in a row and failed to score for the last five-and-a-half hours.
Jermaine Defoe is cup tied and his absence is a huge loss, considering his impact since he arrived at the club.
Cardiff will aim to be the first team outside the top flight to win the FA Cup since West Ham way back in 1980. The bluebirds have the one title, which came way back in 1927.
When you compare the path of each team to the final it is hard to make a big case for Cardiff, the only premiership team they beat along the way was Middlesborough who froze on the day compared to Pompeys run which included wins over Ipswich, Plymouth and the Baggies, teams who all finished above Cardiff in the league.
The only Cardiff players to have experienced a final before are veteran strikers Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Robbie Fowler, the latter who hasn’t played since December.
Verdict
When all is said and done this is still a final and anything is possible. Nobody has given Cardiff a sniff here and Portsmouth have been favourites for a long time now. In terms of experience Pompey have a crucial advantage and this may be a huge factor today. All their players have played on big occasions before and while it may be a bit unfair to say that Cardiff will buckle under the pressure, it will be very interesting to see how they cope with the thought of a packed stadium and millions watching on tv’s around the world.
Id expect a slow cautious start from both sides here and we may have to wait a while before things open up. Eventually though I expect Portsmouth’s class and experience to show through.
Two selections for me here
Draw HT/ Portsmouth FT- 4.5 @ bet365 (2 points)
Portsmouth win – 1.73 @ bet365 ( 6 points)
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
UEFA Cup final
Zenit St. Petersburg - Glasgow Rangers
Not many had these two teams picked out as potential winners a few months ago but there is no doubting that both deserve to be here on the final day. Both have played different styles and taken different approaches to games so far with Rangers adopting a successful defensive approach to games whereas Zenit perfected the counter attack in the semi final scoring 4 goals against mighty Bayern Munich.
We’ll start with Zenit first, managed by Dick Advocat, a man who also spent 4 years in charge of Rangers. He brought Zenit to their first league title in 2007 and though this year has started of slowly it would appear that this final is the focus of their attention. Unfortunately for them Pogrebnyak, their top scorer is suspended and his absence is a huge loss. Andrei Arshavin is back from his own suspension, as are Radek Sirl and former Rangers player Fernando Ricksen. They are in the final courtesy of a resounding 4 – 0 win against Bayern Munich, a result which shocked many. They play fast open football and move it around fast though they may have their work cut out for them to score against a Rangers side that pinpointed defence as their main strength.
Rangers have frustrated sides at time this year and are here after two 0 – 0 games against Fiorentina, whom they eventually overcame on penalties. One of the main causes of concern for them is that they have a serious amount of games to get through in a congested fixture list. On the plus side for them, motivation will not be a problem as they are looking for their first European trophy since that 1972 European Cup Winners' Cup win. Over 100,000 fans are expected to make the journey to Manchester so they will be well cheered on.
Verdict
As with all finals anything is possible here. I just feel that Rangers have had too much to deal with lately with trying to keep the pressure on Celtic in the SPL and trying to cope with so many games coming so fast after each other its bound to have a negative effect on them. On the other hand Zenit have had a nice long break coming into this game and despite missing their top scorer have been installed as favourites.
For me it will be very interesting to see how Zenit’s attack cope with the Gers defence. Im all for Zenit here but am very wary of the draw.
Zenit draw no bet it is.
PICK
Uefa cup final
Zenit ST Petersburg +0 (1.62 @ boylesports) 5 points
Not many had these two teams picked out as potential winners a few months ago but there is no doubting that both deserve to be here on the final day. Both have played different styles and taken different approaches to games so far with Rangers adopting a successful defensive approach to games whereas Zenit perfected the counter attack in the semi final scoring 4 goals against mighty Bayern Munich.
We’ll start with Zenit first, managed by Dick Advocat, a man who also spent 4 years in charge of Rangers. He brought Zenit to their first league title in 2007 and though this year has started of slowly it would appear that this final is the focus of their attention. Unfortunately for them Pogrebnyak, their top scorer is suspended and his absence is a huge loss. Andrei Arshavin is back from his own suspension, as are Radek Sirl and former Rangers player Fernando Ricksen. They are in the final courtesy of a resounding 4 – 0 win against Bayern Munich, a result which shocked many. They play fast open football and move it around fast though they may have their work cut out for them to score against a Rangers side that pinpointed defence as their main strength.
Rangers have frustrated sides at time this year and are here after two 0 – 0 games against Fiorentina, whom they eventually overcame on penalties. One of the main causes of concern for them is that they have a serious amount of games to get through in a congested fixture list. On the plus side for them, motivation will not be a problem as they are looking for their first European trophy since that 1972 European Cup Winners' Cup win. Over 100,000 fans are expected to make the journey to Manchester so they will be well cheered on.
Verdict
As with all finals anything is possible here. I just feel that Rangers have had too much to deal with lately with trying to keep the pressure on Celtic in the SPL and trying to cope with so many games coming so fast after each other its bound to have a negative effect on them. On the other hand Zenit have had a nice long break coming into this game and despite missing their top scorer have been installed as favourites.
For me it will be very interesting to see how Zenit’s attack cope with the Gers defence. Im all for Zenit here but am very wary of the draw.
Zenit draw no bet it is.
PICK
Uefa cup final
Zenit ST Petersburg +0 (1.62 @ boylesports) 5 points
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Sunday picks
Liverpool V Man City
Ok il probably get slated for this pick but im going to oppose the home side here. It’s been a tough week for Liverpool fans losing out on a champions league spot during the week. With that result went any last remaining thoughts of silverware and physically and mentally it was a very draining exercise. Skrtel went off injured and reports suggest that Torres is also absent today.
Both teams are similar in regards to off the field trouble. The ownership problems at Liverpool are well documented and City were rocked by the news this week that Sven Goran Eriksson’s ten month reign will be brought to an end shortly by Thaksin Shinawatra. Its bizarre to me really as Man City have had a great season, and it’s not a popular choice as Eriksson is a popular man at Eastlands. He is held in high regard by the players and the decision has angered many of the players and supporters, especially those players who appear to have signed contracts on the basis that Sven would be at the helm for the “three year plan” bandied about by the club owners.
With this in mind we should see a much better and determined performance from the visitors today as the target appears to be to embarrass Shinawatra. Man City left themselves down last week, throwing away a 2 – 0 lead to lose 3 – 2 to strugglers Fulham.
Verdict
Rafa will probably rotate the Liverpool team a bit and freshen it up but after the gruelling 120 minutes they played at Stamford bridge on Tuesday there will be some tired minds out there. They are already assured of 4th place too so the pressure is somewhat off them.
Manchester City have a point to prove to the club owners today and although they are without Dunne and Richards they can still give a good account of themselves.
An away win might sound unrealistic to some but remember Man City won away at Old Trafford when nobody gave them a sniff. Against all odds Wigan won away at Aston Villa yesterday so results like this are not so extraordinary. Man City to at least get a draw for me.
PICK
Manchester City +0.5 ( 2.58 @ 5dimes) 4 points
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Blackpool V Watford
One of the few championship games where something is riding on the result. Interestingly a draw may be enough for both teams so a cagey affair is to be expected here. Blackpool are in 18th place and a draw will be enough to keep them up as long as Southampton don’t win by 13 or more goals!
The mathematics tell us that Watford only need a point for a playoff spot but only if Wolves don’t win by three or more.
What does this all mean? It means that at this moment a draw is probably good enough for both teams and I feel that it will be a tight cagey low scoring affair. Blackpool are no mugs at home and have only been defeated once in the last eleven games.
Half time draw stands out as having a great shot as neither team will want to commit too much early on. If Wolves take a 3 – 0 lead elsewhere then Watford may have to go looking for a win but this situation should not come up until after half time. Remember a defeat for Watford would be a disaster so cagey and disciplined would be how I see them staring the game.
Anyhow, half time draw is the selection for me
PICK
Blackpool V Watford ht draw ( 2 @ paddy power) 4 points
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Sheffield Wednesday V Norwich
Sheffield will have the final say over their own destiny, as a win will ensure survival for another year. Luckily for them they are facing Norwich, a team who are safe and as such only playing for pride. Since they won 3 away on the trot back in Jan/Feb Norwich have stuttered along on the road picking up 1 point from a possible 18.
Sheffield have really responded well to the relegation threat and last weeks 3 – 1 win away to Leicester was a massive result. At home they are undefeated in 5 and they include games against teams such as Stoke and in form Coventry.
Ticket prices have been reduced for the home fans to encourage a sell-out crowd and with two teams with contrasting needs and form its just impossible to look past the home win today.
Sheffield Wednesday to stage a final day survival act and take 3 points.
PICK
Sheffield Wednesday (1.73 @ totesport) 6 points
Ok il probably get slated for this pick but im going to oppose the home side here. It’s been a tough week for Liverpool fans losing out on a champions league spot during the week. With that result went any last remaining thoughts of silverware and physically and mentally it was a very draining exercise. Skrtel went off injured and reports suggest that Torres is also absent today.
Both teams are similar in regards to off the field trouble. The ownership problems at Liverpool are well documented and City were rocked by the news this week that Sven Goran Eriksson’s ten month reign will be brought to an end shortly by Thaksin Shinawatra. Its bizarre to me really as Man City have had a great season, and it’s not a popular choice as Eriksson is a popular man at Eastlands. He is held in high regard by the players and the decision has angered many of the players and supporters, especially those players who appear to have signed contracts on the basis that Sven would be at the helm for the “three year plan” bandied about by the club owners.
With this in mind we should see a much better and determined performance from the visitors today as the target appears to be to embarrass Shinawatra. Man City left themselves down last week, throwing away a 2 – 0 lead to lose 3 – 2 to strugglers Fulham.
Verdict
Rafa will probably rotate the Liverpool team a bit and freshen it up but after the gruelling 120 minutes they played at Stamford bridge on Tuesday there will be some tired minds out there. They are already assured of 4th place too so the pressure is somewhat off them.
Manchester City have a point to prove to the club owners today and although they are without Dunne and Richards they can still give a good account of themselves.
An away win might sound unrealistic to some but remember Man City won away at Old Trafford when nobody gave them a sniff. Against all odds Wigan won away at Aston Villa yesterday so results like this are not so extraordinary. Man City to at least get a draw for me.
PICK
Manchester City +0.5 ( 2.58 @ 5dimes) 4 points
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Blackpool V Watford
One of the few championship games where something is riding on the result. Interestingly a draw may be enough for both teams so a cagey affair is to be expected here. Blackpool are in 18th place and a draw will be enough to keep them up as long as Southampton don’t win by 13 or more goals!
The mathematics tell us that Watford only need a point for a playoff spot but only if Wolves don’t win by three or more.
What does this all mean? It means that at this moment a draw is probably good enough for both teams and I feel that it will be a tight cagey low scoring affair. Blackpool are no mugs at home and have only been defeated once in the last eleven games.
Half time draw stands out as having a great shot as neither team will want to commit too much early on. If Wolves take a 3 – 0 lead elsewhere then Watford may have to go looking for a win but this situation should not come up until after half time. Remember a defeat for Watford would be a disaster so cagey and disciplined would be how I see them staring the game.
Anyhow, half time draw is the selection for me
PICK
Blackpool V Watford ht draw ( 2 @ paddy power) 4 points
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Sheffield Wednesday V Norwich
Sheffield will have the final say over their own destiny, as a win will ensure survival for another year. Luckily for them they are facing Norwich, a team who are safe and as such only playing for pride. Since they won 3 away on the trot back in Jan/Feb Norwich have stuttered along on the road picking up 1 point from a possible 18.
Sheffield have really responded well to the relegation threat and last weeks 3 – 1 win away to Leicester was a massive result. At home they are undefeated in 5 and they include games against teams such as Stoke and in form Coventry.
Ticket prices have been reduced for the home fans to encourage a sell-out crowd and with two teams with contrasting needs and form its just impossible to look past the home win today.
Sheffield Wednesday to stage a final day survival act and take 3 points.
PICK
Sheffield Wednesday (1.73 @ totesport) 6 points
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Some weekend picks
Sorry for my absense guys. Its been a tough few weeks workwise for me so ive been absent from any betting. Onto the weekend
Aston Villa V Wigan
Villa are probably one of the form teams in the premiership at the moment and it would be unwise to write them off at any venue. Agbonlahor has scored in each of the last 4 games and his pace should get him into some decent positions today against a Wigan side that is as good as safe.
The goals are flowing and 17 in the last 4 games are encouraging signs. They are fighting it out for 5th place with Everton and today is a great chance to get back on track as Everton have a tough fixture away at the Emirates to think about.
Wigans away record speaks volumes about them (1-5-12) with almost 2 goals a game conceded. Most of their points tally have came from a solid home record but take them on the road and they are wobbly at best. That being said they can be tough opposition and you can expect them to make Villa work hard for the 3 points today.
Villa are on song at the moment and could probably land the overs themselves in this game but ive a feeling that Wigan are good enough to snatch a goal here and make a game of it.
Overs for me.
PICK
Aston Villa/Wigan over 2.5 goals ( 1.9 @ unibet) 3 points
Blackburn V Derby
There is not much to say about this one that you guys don’t already know. Derby are just too poor for the top flight and have been whipping boys for most of the season.
They were thumped 6 – 2 by Arsenal midweek but were just delighted that they got on the scoresheet twice.
If an unmotivated side so comprehensively defeated them then how will they do against a Blackburn side in need of the 3 points? The home side are not known as prolific scorers but have scored in each of the last 5 at Ewood park and today should be more target practice for them. Benni McCarthy is out so Santa Cruz and Roberts will lead the line.
A comfortable home win should be in order here.
Blackburn –1.75 (1.98 @ bet365) 5 points
Wolves V Plymouth
Wolves look like serious nap material for me. I was at Molineux last week to see them beat Cardiff 3 – 0 and even though they didn’t play exceptional in any way they still showed enough desire to take 3 points.
In many ways this game is very similar. Wolves need the win badly whereas Plymouth are floating in mad table and planning the summer holidays. 3 points will take Wolves into the playoff zone but only if other results go their way.
With a pretty much full strength squad to chose from at home its hard to look past a home win here.
Plymouth are in 10th place and secure for another season. With little to play for here except pride its hard to see them crashing into 50/50 tackles with 100% commitment. However they are payed to do their job so it will be far from a walkover for the home side. The Pilgrims have actually been quite decent on the road with 8 wins but they have been conceding goals and lowly Coventry hit them for 3 a few weeks back.
A 1- 0 or 2 – 0 home win for me and the home side will just about do enough to give them a shot at the playoffs.
PICK
Wolves (1.57 @ bet365) 5 points
Aston Villa V Wigan
Villa are probably one of the form teams in the premiership at the moment and it would be unwise to write them off at any venue. Agbonlahor has scored in each of the last 4 games and his pace should get him into some decent positions today against a Wigan side that is as good as safe.
The goals are flowing and 17 in the last 4 games are encouraging signs. They are fighting it out for 5th place with Everton and today is a great chance to get back on track as Everton have a tough fixture away at the Emirates to think about.
Wigans away record speaks volumes about them (1-5-12) with almost 2 goals a game conceded. Most of their points tally have came from a solid home record but take them on the road and they are wobbly at best. That being said they can be tough opposition and you can expect them to make Villa work hard for the 3 points today.
Villa are on song at the moment and could probably land the overs themselves in this game but ive a feeling that Wigan are good enough to snatch a goal here and make a game of it.
Overs for me.
PICK
Aston Villa/Wigan over 2.5 goals ( 1.9 @ unibet) 3 points
Blackburn V Derby
There is not much to say about this one that you guys don’t already know. Derby are just too poor for the top flight and have been whipping boys for most of the season.
They were thumped 6 – 2 by Arsenal midweek but were just delighted that they got on the scoresheet twice.
If an unmotivated side so comprehensively defeated them then how will they do against a Blackburn side in need of the 3 points? The home side are not known as prolific scorers but have scored in each of the last 5 at Ewood park and today should be more target practice for them. Benni McCarthy is out so Santa Cruz and Roberts will lead the line.
A comfortable home win should be in order here.
Blackburn –1.75 (1.98 @ bet365) 5 points
Wolves V Plymouth
Wolves look like serious nap material for me. I was at Molineux last week to see them beat Cardiff 3 – 0 and even though they didn’t play exceptional in any way they still showed enough desire to take 3 points.
In many ways this game is very similar. Wolves need the win badly whereas Plymouth are floating in mad table and planning the summer holidays. 3 points will take Wolves into the playoff zone but only if other results go their way.
With a pretty much full strength squad to chose from at home its hard to look past a home win here.
Plymouth are in 10th place and secure for another season. With little to play for here except pride its hard to see them crashing into 50/50 tackles with 100% commitment. However they are payed to do their job so it will be far from a walkover for the home side. The Pilgrims have actually been quite decent on the road with 8 wins but they have been conceding goals and lowly Coventry hit them for 3 a few weeks back.
A 1- 0 or 2 – 0 home win for me and the home side will just about do enough to give them a shot at the playoffs.
PICK
Wolves (1.57 @ bet365) 5 points
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