Some saturday previews

Reading V Middlesborough

Reading were one of my favourite teams to back last season, this year though they have been a bit of a let down. Mainly due to a lack of form up front from Kevin Doyle, however they seem to have turned a corner and now look a little more confidant. Sitting in 13th place theres no doubt that their away form is dire with only one point picked from a possible 21. But the home form seems to be back on track. (4-0-3) 3 wins on the bounce at home against Wigan, Derby and Newcastle. Its fair to say none of these 3 teams are world beaters but its also fair to say that Wigan and Newcastle especially have more to offer than this Boro side.

Middlesborough are flirting dangerously with the relegation this year. Home and away form is poor with only 2 games won this year. The signing of Mido earlier in the year hasn’t boosted their strike force and he seems to be out of shape. They haven’t fared well on the road at all (1-1-5) and have scored measly 4 goals and conceded 14. Both of the first and second choice keepers are out injured and R. Turnbull will wearing the number one for this game.

Only once have Reading failed to score at home this year and have managed to score against the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal, surely the weak Boro defence will not keep them out for 90 minutes. On the other hand Boro have really struggled to find the net. This could be the final nail in the coffin for Gareth Southgate. I must admit I’m surprised that there are odds of 2 available for the home win, as I would have been expecting 1.8 or so.
Home win.



Ipswich V Barnsley Town

I must admit at first when I saw the odds available I had to check if I was missing something, 1.7 for a team with a 100% 8 wins from 8 at home???
Playing against a Barnsley side who can be described at best as mediocre away from home. One look at home and away stats for both clubs here tells two very different tales.
Ipswich have the best home record in England, as I said above. 8 home games played, 8 won, 25 goals scored and only 4 conceded. An unbelievable record which inevitably has to come to an end eventually but I cant see it happening against Barnsley.

Barnsley are in 1oth place but this is mainly due to a decent home record, they are very poor away from home, only one team has scored less away goals ( bottom placed Norwich)
Again, one look at their away stats doesn’t make great reading for any potential backers out there. (1-3-5) with only 6 scored and 14 conceded.
skipper Brian Howard and Jamal Campbell-Ryce are out and its hard to see them stopping the Ipswich train. Both teams are similar enough in the sense that they are both strong at home but away are really poor.

I expect a confident Ipswich to get another win tomorrow and will take them –1 on the asian to boost the odds a little, at worst im expecting a 1 goal home win which would mean money back




PICK
Reading –0.5 ( 2.02 @ bet365) 5 points
Ipswich – 1 asian handicap ( 2.12 @ mansion) 6 points


There will be more previews, hopefully posted first thing tomorrow morning so check back.

November is almost over

November is almost over and its safe to say that once again i am ( and hopefully you are) well in profit. ( full monthly review to follow shortly)

First of all i would like to say, thanks to you who have emailed me to thank me for the picks in recent weeks. I hope you will all be as polite and agreeable when a losing weekend appears!!!

On nights like tonight there was a full round of Uefa cup games and some of you may wonder why i had nothing previewed or picked out for attention.

Quite simply, there are many nights like tonight when nothing appeals to me. I work hard and only make bets if i see that theres a good chance of a winner.
Also in reply to those of you who have asked me to post my picks earlier....
Sometimes its just not possible for me. Time is scarce and unfortunately i don't work near a PC.

However I will make an effort in future to get my stuff done and posted well before KO.
Feel free to email me with any queries or questions

Looking forward to December!




NOVEMBER STATS

Staked = 97 points
Returned = 128.45
Profit = 31.45

Yield = +32.4%

Tuesday 27th November pick

I could stay here all night and write a long preview about how good Ipswich are at home, but one look at their home stats should say enough. Seven wins from seven, 23 goals scored and only 4 conceded so far is an unbelievable start. They sit in 8th position in the league despite having one of the poorest away records in the league where they have yet to record a win. 8th position, and this is all down to that home record. Like everything else all good runs will have to come to an end but I don’t see it tonight.

Southampton are one of those teams that are very hard to predict, either very good or very bad but its hard to escape that they have conceded the most goals away from home in the league, not exactly inspiring for potential backers. They also have a few injury worries tonight with Centre-back Wayne Thomas a major doubt. Dailly has returned to West Ham from his loan spell. Fellow defenders Darren Powell (calf), Alexander Ostlund (hamstring), Claus Lundekvam (ankle) and Chris Makin (hip) all remain on the sick list.

Southamptons away record coupled with the injuries suggest they are really going to struggle tonight to contain an Ipswich side who have averaged almost three goals in every home game.
Home win looks like a value call and im really surprised that the odds are not lower.


PICK

Ipswich -0.5 (1.88 @ bet365) 6 points

Saturday 24th of November

I may be wrong on this but im not going to go big on any of the premieship teams this weekend. Too many of them had players away on international duty so its a bit hard to know if some of them can be 100% fit and focused, especially after long flights, the various emotions of qualifying or elimination so i think the big games should be treated with caution.

Darlington V Wycombe

Darlingtons defence has been a revelation so far this season. 11 clean sheets in 16 league games is without doubt an impressive record to have on your side. This has been one of the factors which has pushed them to third place and they will be looking to build on that with another 3 points today. Any team with a 100 % record at home has to be respected and they also have the best home record in the league

Darlingtons last 4 home games

Darlington - Shrewsbury 2 - 0
Darlington - Chesterfield 0 - 0
Darlington - Stockport 4 - 0
Darlington - Rochdale 1 - 1


Wycome are also a team who have promotion ideas. However with a team so high in the table its a bit of a surprise to see that their away record is quite poor and they are without an away since late september. They are not without problems too with Striker Jermaine Easter refusing to play for the club, leaving them short of attacking options up front.


Wycombe's last 4 away

0 - 0Wrexham - Wycombe
2 - 2 Chester City - Wycombe
2 - 1Peterborough - Wycombe
2 - 1Barnet - Wycombe


With Wycombe being one of the poorer away sides in the division id have to side with Darlington keeping yet another clean sheet and grinding out another home win and a probable 1 - 0 victory.


The other teams that catch my eye are Nottingham Forest to beat Crewe at home. Forest have a great home record and have only conceded 2 in their last 6 home games. With 1st and 2nd placed Carlisle and Orient facing tricky away ties an win today will put Forest top which should be motivation enough for them. Crewe have only kept one clean sheet on the road so far. I dont see that extending today.


PICKS
Darlington-0.5 (2.07 @canbet) 4 points

Nottm Forest (1.67 @ bluesq) 6 points

Good luck

Is the time right to oppose Manchester United?

Bolton Wanderers V Manchester United

In my honest opinion I think Manchester United are priced up far too short here. Lets look at the team first before looking through Uniteds recent form. United will be without Rooney, Scholes and G Neville through injury. Tevez is a doubt as he may be jet lagged after playing for Argentina in the recent world cup qualifiers. And finally, Vidic is still on international duty. Manchester have been in cracking form of late, Tevez and Rooney have been terrorising defences and scoring goals hasn’t been a problem with plenty of goals home and away in recent weeks. Ronaldo has also been playing well and has chipped in with a few goals.

Manchester Uniteds last 4 away games.

2 - 2 Arsenal - Man United
1 - 4 Aston Villa - Man United
0 - 1 Birmingham City - Man United
0 - 1 Everton - Man United

Bolton are having an awful year so far, They lack any real creativity going forward and scoring goals has been a problem. The only teams to have scored less than Bolton are Wigan and Derby which says it all really. So why do i think they can surprise here?

Boltons last 4 home games

Bolton - Middlesbrough 0 – 0
Bolton - Aston Villa 1 – 1
Bolton - Chelsea 0 – 1
Bolton - Tottenham 1 - 1

Despite all this I feel they should be able to give Man U a good game of it tomorrow, the reasons being,
Bolton have Anelka and Hadji-Diouf back so they wont be lacking up front.
They have a full squad to pick from.
I don’t think the international break will have affected and disrupted the Bolton squad as much as Man Utd’s.
Nobody is expecting much from Bolton tomorrow and this is the kind of game they will love. Players always like to be the underdog and and every team ups their performance for visitors of the callibre of Manchester United.
Bolton's home record has been nothing to boast about so far but United's fine run has to end sometime and Bolton have to start winning at home eventually.
With the few players that man U are missing I feel theres no better time to oppose them. General odds of 1.4ish are far to low for me on the away win. Im in two minds how to follow Bolton here though, I think a straight win may be pushing my luck a bit too far so il take them + 1 on the asian handicap and worst case scenario should get the money back if United sneak it.

Good luck

PICK

Bolton +1 asian handicap ( 2.21 @ betsson) 6 points

I will have some more picks either tonight or early tomorrow so stay tuned!

A general update

Well, im dam glad i stayed away from any bets tonight. England sensationally lose 3 - 2 at home to Croatia to leave them at home and Russia to go through instead. And Holland losing away to Belarus? And Germany failing to beat Wales at home, though i suspect that was a tactical move to finish in 2nd spot. So all in all a few strange results and like i said, im glad i gave it a miss.

Back to the blog though and last nights win pushes me closer to my aim of 100 points profit. Which is not bad considering how long ive been posting.
With a few days left in the month im hoping to get to that mark before the 1st of December but only time will tell.

Anyway theres a round of games from England on Saturday and Sunday so check back for updates. Hopefully il get some selections posted tomorrow or Friday evening.
Stay safe Gents.

Tuesday 20th November pick

Things are a little quiet these days with a round of internationals to be played tommorrow night.
Tonights bet is from Ireland and im going with Finn harps to beat Waterford in the playoffs 1st leg. I watched Finn Harps a few weeks back and while they are not the strongest of teams, they are fairly good at home. They are unbeaten in the last 7 home playoff games and have only conceded 1 goal in said games. It is a long journey for Waterford and despite not losing in their last 6 games they have struggled to score goals. It should also be noted that they are missing 3 players tonight.
I think Finn Harps should have enough quality to take advantage of the home venue tonight and should get a win.

PICKS
Finn Harps - 0.5 goals ( 1.83 @ bet365) 6 points

More Euro 2008 games

Wales V Ireland

Not much to say on this one really. Neither can qualify and both are fighting for the third place, which will see a better seeding for the world cup draw.
Both have had a turbulent qualifying campaign. Irish manager Steven Staunton was given the sack a few weeks back and caretaker manager Don Givens is in charge for this one.
Wales boss John Toshack is under extreme pressure also and he may be out of a job shortly.
Back to the game though and Wales will be without Craig Bellamy and Gareth Bale, Koumas is also a doubt. The absence of Bellamy especially will severely dent the Welsh attack, as they often look pretty toothless up front without him.
Ireland have a strong squad to chose from and several players have a point to prove here. Their away form has been poor but on saying that their home form hasn’t been much to brag about either. Some players such as Keane and O Shea have come under fierce pressure from the Irish media and I expect an improved performance from them today.
Givens has selected McGeady on the wing, which would indicate that he is going for an attacking performance. Also Ireland won the reverse fixture 1 – 0. I don’t think it will be pretty to watch but I think Ireland have slightly more in terms of quality and may once again get a 1 – 0. With all the other games on tv today im sure there will be much better games to watch, for me though il take Ireland on level ball

PICKS
Ireland level ball ( 1.8 @ bluesq) 6 points

Euro 2008 qualifiers

Israel V Russia

99% of English fans will be watching and cheering on Israel in this one. This game is make or break for both Russia and England as a win for the Russians will virtually seal qualification for Euro 2008.

Israel are out of contention so its very hard to see how motivated they will be for this one. Now usually the thought of putting one over Russia would be enough to motivate any team but theres has been whispers of "fix" all week. Personally im not convinced but i still think Russia should have enough quality to get 3 vital points.

Russia's away form
12/09/07 L 0-3 v England
06/06/07 D 0-0 v Croatia
24/03/07 W 2-0 v Estonia
15/11/06 W 2-0 v Macedonia

Russia have a fully fit squad to chose from, Akinfeev the keeper who was the only doubt, is back to fitness.


Israel on the other hand are playing only for pride. Its difficult to gauge just how up for this game the Israel team will actually be. Liverpool midfielder Benayoun sustained an adductor tear on Saturday and is definitely out. He will be a major loss in the middle of the park as Israel need his creativity going forward.

Israel Home Form
28/03/07 W 4-0 v Estonia
24/03/07 D 0-0 v England
15/11/06 L 3-4 v Croatia
06/09/06 W 4-1 v Andorra


Verdict
Theres lots of talk about the Israel team rolling over and letting Russia win but i dont see it being as clear cut as that. Im always a little weary whenever these type of match present themselves. On saying that, given the circumstances and that Russia have a full squad to chose from and a win will almost seal them a place in Euro 2008 i think they will do enough to win. The odds on the Russian win is priced up at about 1.5 but theres not enough value there for me. I think it will be tight and maybe 1 - 0 or so to Russia.
Draw at HT and the Russian win at FT is the pick for me here. I think Israel will try keep it tight at the back and it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see a goal until after the 70th minute.
Good luck.

PICK
Draw HT / Russia FT (x/2) ( 4.5 @ ladbrokes) 2 points

Sunday Picks

Greetings people.
Once again im very stuck for time so will keep it brief.
Yesterday i didnt get the chance to study any fixtures so it was a day of no betting for me, today only two catch my eye, and both for small stakes only.

PICKS
Porstmouth win (2 @ skybet) 3 points

Bolton win (2.15 @ betsson) 3 points


good luck, will try to get back online at some stage if possible.

Wednesday 7th October picks

Unfortunately i have to up and leave for Italy for a few days so i will be pc restricted in the next few days. Still check back for updates as il do my best to post all picks in the next 7 days or so.
Onto tonights picks

PICKS
Manchester Utd clean sheet ( 1.72 @ betfair) 4 points

Barcelona clean sheet ( 1.72 @ betfair) 4 points

Barcelona - 1.75 ah (1.92 @ betdirect) 3 points

Lisbon V Roma over 2.5 goals ( 2.15 @ mansion) 3 points

Tuesday 6th November picks

Theres a host of champions league action and a full bill of the championship tonight.
Champions league games though are a little hard to pick value from so small stakes only tonight.
My sincere apologies for the lack of information with the picks but time is not on my side these days.
Tommorrow il be back with some more picks and hopefully a bit of info to go with the picks.

PICKS
Liverpool -1.75 ah( 1.86 @ mansion) 5 points

Chelsea -0.5 (2.10 @ mansion) 2 points

QPR + 0 ah (1.76 @ canbet) 5 points

Carlisle +0 ah (2.16 @ canbet) 3 points

Monday evening premiership action

Or it probably wont be. No matter how much i look at this, i just cant see any goals coming. City were hammered 6 - 0 last week so we should see a much better defensive display. On the other hand Sunderland will huff and puff but i can see them scoring.

So what will happen? A borefest in my honest opinion. This is in my eyes a nailed on unders game. Sunderlands best hope is to try and keep it tight and nick a goal on the counter attack. Also City are struggling to score many but i still think they will be good enough to sneak a 1 - 0 or 2 - 0 win.
Trying something different, if Sunderland score im f*cked but il give it a go none the less. I just dont see Sunderland scoring and cant see City scoring more than 1 goal . 2 is the max they will get.

PICKS
Man city 1 - 0 correct score (7 @ centrebet) 1 point

Man city 2 - 0 correct score (7.5 @ centrebet) 1 point

La Ligo tonight

Sevilla V Real Madrid


As soon as I saw this fixture the word goals popped into my head.
Sevilla are a bit of a mixed bag this season. The early devastation at the club due to the death of a player brought obvious problems to the players but they seem to have got back on track a little. That was until last week, when coach Ramos upped and left for warmer climates, aka London!
Their home form has also been a little hard to predict, 3 wins and 2 losses. But most games they have played have gone hand in hand with plenty of goals, both home and away. A home record in which they have scored 13 and conceded 6 gives their home goals average to about 2.6.

Real Madrid, the defending champions are playing sterling football this season and they have only been defeated the once, away to Espanyol. Their away record though is good, the most notable result a 5 – 1 hammering of Valencia at the Mestalla.
Like sevilla, their games, both home and away have also seen plenty of goals. Away from home their record reads 3-1-1 and they have yet to fail to score an any match, home or away. Their away goals record stands at 13 for and 4 against averaging at just over 2.5 goals a game away from home.

On the playing field Sevilla have had the slight edge over Real in recent times and already put them out of the Super Cup. They have also won 5 of the last 6 home games against Real, another interesting stat to consider.
Much like today’s earlier game between Arsenal and Manchester, I’m finding it very hard to pick a winner, both teams are equally good but I think Real will win this one, if only just. They have so much attacking quality with the likes of Van Nistlerooy, Robinho and Raul that’s its very hard to see them not scoring tonight.

This is a game im looking forward to and I see lots of goals coming hopefully.




PICKS
Sevilla V Real Madrid over 2.5 goals ( 1.78 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Saturday's English picks

Unfortunately im a little stuck for time so there will be no previews, only picks.

PICKS
Blackburn + 0.25 (1.81 @ pinnacle) 3 points

Reading +0.25 (1.9 @ pinnacle) 3 points

Aston Villa - 1.5 asian hdcp (2.26 @ canbet) 6 points

Sheff Utd win (1.91 @ tote) 4 points

More later

*** October final statistics***

October was a bit of a mixed bag for me. I had a bad start to the month but gradually got the funds back up before losing a max bet around the middle of the month.
However when everything is added up and put together things look like this


October

STAKED - 153.5 points
RETURNED - +179.21 points
PROFIT - +25.71 points
YIELD - +16.7%

Fridays pick

Tonight sees 2nd placed Swansea City take on struggler’s Gillingham at home.
Ive looked through a few things and quite frankly I haven’t found one thing to stop me lumping on Swansea.

Swansea, their home form has been patchy to date, but the stats should surely be improved after tonight’s game. A win will put them top and they shouldn’t have too much to fear from Gillingham. Their recent form has been excellent and they have won the last three games on the bounce, all away from home, the most notable, being a 5 – 0 thrashing of 4th placed Leyton Orient.

Swansea’s last 5 home results

18 Aug 07 Swansea City 0 - 0 Nottm Forest
1 Sep 07 Swansea City 1 - 2 Doncaster
14 Sep 07 Swansea City 2 - 1 Carlisle Utd
29 Sep 07 Swansea City 0 - 0 Brighton & HA
2 Oct 07 Swansea City 2 - 1 Swindon

Gillingham, are simply awful away from home. They’ve lost 6 on the bounce and have scored a measly one goal in them six matches. And how many scored in those six? Just the one, these are the kind of stats that make for grim reading for Gills fans. To give them credit, their home record is reasonably good and this is whats keeping them outside the relation zone. But for tonight they are on foreign soil and facing a home side with the expectations of promotion.

Gillinghams last 6 away results

11 Aug 07 Cheltenham Town 1 - 0 Gillingham
25 Aug 07 Luton Town 3 - 1 Gillingham
8 Sep 07 Southend Utd 3 - 0 Gillingham
22 Sep 07 Nottm Forest 4 - 0 Gillingham
6 Oct 07 Swindon 5 - 0 Gillingham
20 Oct 07 Carlisle Utd 2 - 0 Gillingham

As you can see, Gillingham have faced some of the better sides so far but came away empty handed each time.

Verdict
Its just too hard to see past a comfortable home win here. Swansea can go top, which should provide enough motivation for the home side, and they should also be good enough to cover the handicap.

PICK

Swansea – 1 goal (1.79 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Arsenal V Manchester United

This pick is out much earlier than usual for me but its a game that i cant wait for,
Here goes

Arsenal V Manchester Utd

Arsenal face their second big test inside a week as they take on the reigning champions.
Arsenal are playing very well so far this season and Henry has now become a distant memory. Players are playing with confidence and flair and even at this early stage, Cesc Fabregas looks certain to get the player of the year award. The only blip at the moment is the knee injury to Robin Van Persie but he is expected back in a few short weeks.
At home Arsenal have finally got over their early stadium jitters and there is now no doubt that the Emirates has become a fortress. A 100% record at home this season makes impressive reading. Also the fact that they have scored 16 goals and only conceded 4. But United represent a much bigger challenge than Arsenal have had to face so far.

Arsenal last 6 home

12 Aug 07 Arsenal 2 - 1 Fulham
25 Aug 07 Arsenal 1 - 0 Manchester City
2 Sep 07 Arsenal 3 - 1 Portsmouth
22 Sep 07 Arsenal 5 - 0 Derby County
7 Oct 07 Arsenal 3 - 2 Sunderland
20 Oct 07 Arsenal 2 - 0 Bolton


Man Utd on the other hand seem to have got over their bad start to the season. Early results including a derby defeat away to rivals Man City have been forgotten about and recent results have made much better viewing for fans. Four goals in each of their last four games is a great return and Tevez and Rooney finally look to have clicked. Incidentally, both were excellent in the 4 – 1 thrashing of Villa last time out.
Their away record is still impressive having recorded wins away at venues such as Everton, Birmingham and Villa, though you would expect a team the calibre of United to be winning these such games.

Manchester United last 6 away

15 Aug 07 Portsmouth 1 - 1 Man United
19 Aug 07 Manchester City 1 - 0 Man United
15 Sep 07 Everton 0 - 1 Man United
29 Sep 07 Birmingham City 0 - 1 Man United
20 Oct 07 Aston Villa 1 - 4 Man United


This promises to be a cracking 1st V 2nd clash. Last year Arsenal did a memorable double over United and Manchester will be out to get some revenge. Theres very little between the sides in terms of ability, when Arsenal get the time to pass it about then they are one of the best sides around. United will have to be quick to stamp this out and stop Arsenal getting any momentum going. But with Tevez and Rooney finally looking like a partnership up front then its going to take a mammoth performance from Toure and Senderos to keep them out for 90 minutes.
Likewise with Fabregas in irresitable form and Rosicky and Hleb playing with confidence its hard to see Arsenal not hitting the net also.

I just cant separate the sides and though il be rooting for an Arsenal victory I think this has draw written all over it. However the best bet to be had here has to be for both teams to score. Both teams have plenty of attacking class and I see something like a 1 – 1 or 2 – 2 draw.

Good luck

PICK
Both teams to score (1.91 @ bet365) 7 points

October finally finishes!

And we're well in profit. I have to go through the stats and things and add up the points and calculate the all important yield but im relatively happy considering the few bad days i had.

***Figures to follow shortly***