Boxing day soccer

Liverpool V Bolton

I can’t believe the odds on offer here. Sure, Bolton may not be many peoples pick to win this one but Liverpool at odds of 1.3 – 1.4 are not to be taken in my opinion. Bolton are only in 9th position and have got 4 wins away from home, admittedly none were against top opposition but Liverpool at home are not the dominant force they once were and I can only presume that Liverpool have been heavily backed due to the return of Torres. Liverpool haven’t won in 3 at Anfield and they were games against Hull, West Ham and Fulham. Bolton are a much better opposition than all 3 of them and il be having a bit of the 12 available on the visitors. Bolton are not goal shy on the road and have scored 9 times in the last 3 games, Elmander looks a real threat and with Davies and Gardner to back him up there is always a real threat when they go forward.

Verdict
Apologies about the shortness but Liverpool have not done enough for me to even consider backing at these odds. Bolton are a tough organised team and have been creating lots of goal scoring chances lately. The so called big teams always struggle to play against them so its Bolton to snatch a draw for me with a tickle on them grabbing all three points

PICK
Bolton win ( 12 @ skybet) 2 points

Draw ( 4.5 @ bet365) 4 points

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Unfortunately yesterday i had too much beer so previews are at a minimum today.
Instead il just list the picks im taking instead

Manchester City V Hull City over 2.5 goals (1.83 @ betdirect) 5 points
Hull win (5 @ skybet) 2 points

Aston Villa V Arsenal - Draw ( 3.4 @ boylesports) 4 points

Burnley -1 (2.12 @ canbet) 5 points

Happy Holidays

I know not everyone celebrates Christmas but for those of you that do, have a nice few days off and make the most of it.
I have some notes ready for the English programme on Friday, just to throw them together so hopefully i will have some picks up early the day after tomorrow.

Happy holidays!

Sunday Picks

Arsenal V Liverpool

You just don’t know what to expect from Arsenal at all this season. They seem to keep their best for the big games and have fallen flat on their faces against some of the lesser teams. Nevertheless this is a game that’s suite perfectly for them and their preparations have gone just right. Ok so there are still a few casualties but Van Persie and Adebayor will lead the line and this is where they might have the advantage over Liverpool. Liverpool’s attack has been a cause of great debate in recent times and it has been strongly rumoured that Robbie Keane could be on his way out in the January transfer window. Whether that will happen or not there is one thing for sure and that is that Liverpool really need Torres fit and he is out today.
Kuyt is a workhorse and has chipped in with a few goals so far but is not really a player to grab the game by the scruff of the neck which is what Liverpool need today. Instead they will need Steven Gerrard to be on his best form.
Theres a lot of factors to consider in this game and for Arsenal one of them is revenge. Some are still hurting after a dramatic exit in the champions league quarter final last April and there has been a few jibes from the Arsenal camp this week about Babel taking a dive and Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor have both suggested this is the game to exact some revenge.
Arsenal, as I said have been fairly erratic at home with 2 defeats to Hull and Aston Villa. From the outside it looks that complacency is the problem as they don’t look up for it at times and only play their best against the best teams.
Liverpool have been impressive away from home with 6 wins and the only defeat was when they were unlucky to go down 2 – 1 at White Hart Lane. Torres is their main absentee.

Verdict
Should be a tight cagey affair here and there wont be much between the teams. Arsenal are eager to win this one but they might have to be happy with a point. Liverpool will look to attack at every chance but much will depend on Steven Gerrard and whether or not he can make some use of his long distance shooting. On the whole I cant see Liverpool taking the three points but think that they will do enough to frustrate the gunners. Not a huge fan of backing the draw but this has 1 – 1 written all over it.

PICK
Draw ( 3.3 @ pinnacle) 3 points

Correct score 1 - 1 ( 7 @ canbet) 1 point

Hows this for cheek?
Adebayor to score first and the game to finish 1 - 1! (31 @ bet365 and i just cant resist having a unit on it)

Saturday picks

Hull V Sunderland

Interesting game this. Two weeks ago id have jumped at the odds on a Hull win but now im not so sure. Im still not convinced that Sunderland are that good but in last weeks 4 – 0 win against West Brom they at least showed that they are capable of putting a good performance together from time to time. It was inevitable that there would be an improved performance after the departure of Roy Keane as teams always but o don’t think many saw the 4 – 0 coming.
Hull are just outside the European spots approaching the halfway mark and this is a remarkable achievement for them. They have impressed playing against all the big teams and havent looked out of their dept apart from a 3 – 0 defeat to Chelsea and a blip against Wigan. This will be Phil Brown’s 100th game in charge of Hull and how they must be eager to please him as he has done a terrific job with them.
In general Hull have adopted an attacking attitude which has been pleasing to watch as they like to get forward and score goals, At home though they have only kept the one clean sheet, a with Sunderland goal hungry at the moment I would expect another few conceded today.
Sunderland are in the bottom 3 and games like todays are crucial so I would be expecting a hugely committed performance from them today.

Verdict
Too hard to predict as I think both are capable of doing anything on the day. Hull seem to save their best performances for the big guns and Sunderland players are playing for their future at the club. We should see a few goals in this one and I might have a few small bob on the 2 – 2 scoreline too.

PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2.05 @ pinnacle) 5 points


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Blackburn V Stoke

One of my only rules when it comes to gambling is the new manager rule. Never ever back against a team that has just lost their manager, no matter how big or small the club is, and no matter who the opposition.
We saw it last week where Sunderland were transformed and have also seen it recently with Redknapp’s appointment at Tottenham.
However long the honeymoon period lasts for is another question but for now, expect a hugely improved attitude and performance from Blackburn.
After losing the last six League games in a row and falling to 19th in the table, five points from safety and 11 games without a win, its crisis time at Ewood park. Sam Allardyce is the right man for the job though as he has a knack of getting the best out of a limited squad, as he showed at Bolton. One home win is a damming stat and one he will be keen to improve that, starting today.
Stoke will be no pushovers but with Delap not 100% fit they will miss his long throw ins. Tony Pulis will hand fitness tests to five players ahead of this game. Rory Delap ,Andy Griffin,Salif Diao,Leon Cort and Dave Kitson, who is close to returning from a knee injury, will all take late tests before Pulis decides on his final selection.
Pulis will be happy with the way things have gone so far but a defeat today and they will be close to the drop spots. They are a bit of a mixed bag but have generally disappointed on the road with 5 defeats and failed to score in 3 of the last 4.

Verdict
New manager means improved display as players will try to play their way into the new mans plans. I firmly believe that Blackburn are a top 10 team and just need fresh face and some new ideas to inspire them.
Home win

PICK
Home win (1.9 @ betsense) 5 points


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League one

Cheltenham V Walsall

At first glance you might think im mad here but ive been doing a bit of research and it appears that the visitors are having a bit of a crisis at the moment. They are missing some key players and there have been reports of a virus in the camp midweek to stretch their squad to the max.
Cheltenham may be in the bottom 4 but have improve their performances of late winning the last 3 including a morale boosting win over Leyton Orient last weekend. They are a tough side to break down and Martin Allen could prove to be a shrewd boss.

Verdict
This is one of my shortest previews but based on what ive been reading it would be a crime not to have a few bob on the home win. They have improved lately and would be a great bet but in the circumstances they are an even better shout.

PICK
Cheltenham win ( 2.4 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Cheltenham win 2 – 0 ( 13 @ skybet) 2 points
Cheltenham win 3 – 0 ( 26 @ skybet) 1 point
Cheltenham win 4 – 0 ( 81 @ bet365) 1 point

Saturday's football

Wolves V Barsnley

At the risk or repeating myself I find myself once again backing Wolves at home. Its simple really, they have looked a class apart when facing the lesser opposition and their problem area of goals has been cleared up this season. Iwelumo and Ebanks-Blake are sticking them in for fun and at the moment the only thing that I can see getting in their way is complacency. A defeat last week to Qpr might have been a blessing in disguise though to keep them focused and they look very very comfortable at home where they have collected 28 points from a possible 33. Wolves also have had the benefit of resting players recently showing their strength in dept.
Barnsley are one of those sides that will be happy with mid table this year. Their away form has seen them lose 7 times and their squad is hit with injuries. 17 players were declared fit for their midweek trip to Swansea. On saying that, they were unlucky to come away from Swansea without the 3 points after conceding a 94th minute goal to tie things up at 2 – 2.

Verdict
Barnsley’s midweek effort at Swansea will have alerted Mick McCarthy’s men and there will be no complacency from them today. The manner in which Barnsley threw away the 3 points was disheartening and it might be a long tough afternoon for them.

PICK
Wolves –1 ( 1.74 @ ladbrokes) 5 points
Wolves win 2 – 0 (7 @ladbrokes) 1 point
Wolves win 3 – 0 (10 @ladbrokes) 1 point

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Reading v Norwich

Like Wolves, Reading are one of those sides that always look the business at home in the championship, and once again I find myself backing them to win today. They are putting goals away for fun and look set for a quick return to the premiership where lets face it, they deserve to be.
Keeper Marcus Hahnemann picked up a knock midweek and looks set to miss but I don’t think his absence will be critical. Reading strolled to a 1 – 0 win over Blackpool on Tuesday night, an Ingimarsson goal enough to separate the sides but in truth it was never in doubt as Reading played against 10 men a long time. They even had the luxury of missing a penalty when Hunts shot was saved by Paul Rachubka.
That win made it 9 wins from 11 at home and they look set to extend that with victory today.
Norwich face another tough away assignment after being leapfrogged by Waterford in their 2 – 1 defeat to the same club on Tuesday night. Goals have been an issue and Glen Roeder has signed injury-prone striker Carl Cort until the end of the season though the jury is out on that one.
Norwich have only kept a clean sheet once this season on the road and that was way back in September.

Verdict
It should be another routine 3 points for the home side here and anything but would be a shock as they bid to overtake Wolves. Home points are critical over the xmas period.

PICK

Reading – 1 (1.72 @ ladbrokes) 5 points

Heineken Cup Saturday

Munster V Clermont Auvergne

This is a huge game for both sides and could be potentially classed as a make or break game. Last weeks win for Clermont has really stirred things up and made things interesting. As defending champions Munster have not reached the heights that they are capable of getting to and should know by now that every team wants to beat the best so they can expect no easy ride They have struggled to get any rhythm going and as usual a lot today will hinge on O Gara and his boot. Clermont’s 6 point win last week was a surprise to some but in reality they have some excellent players and at odds of 26 outright could give you a good run for your money.
Their biggest disadvantage is that there are doubts about their fitness levels as they were visibly tiring towards the end of last week’s class. Hooker Ledesma has been resigned to the bench and it is likely that he will be used as an impact sub in the course of the final 20 minutes when his teammates might need a boost. They are tough in the tackle and at times brushed some of the Munster player’s aside and were able to register some easy scores.
Munster always seem to need a bit of danger in their play. It’s at this stage every season that they look like a spent force and almost always stick in a poor performance along the way. But they always seem to bounce back and they will be glad to be back at Thomand Park where they look most comfortable. With only a losing bonus point from last week’s encounter another defeat is unthinkable and the crowd will need to get behind them from the very start.
Clermonts strengths are similar to Munster in that they hold on to possession and look to stretch the opposition and Brock James will be crucial. One poor kick and the crowd will be on his back and he could be in for a tough afternoon. As I said O Gara needs to have his kicking boots on and O Callaghan and O Connell will be crucial in the lineout.

Verdict
I see this being very tight but I think Munster’s experience and that remarkable home record will see them through but only just by a few. Theres a couple of hours to kick off yet but it is pelting rain outside and this could be a low scoring tie settled by a few points

PICK
Munster win by 1 – 12 points (2.88 @ bluesq) 4 points
Munster win by 1 – 5 points (8.5 @ skybet) 1 point


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Harlequins v Stade Francais Paris

I very nearly missed this one but im very surprised at the odds on the away win here. Harlequins won last week in France but to my mind it was more down to poor play from the French who never stamped their authority on the game. Defeat for the French side last week came as a big surprise to many and Im sure that todays odds are a reflection of that game rather than the current strengths and weaknesses of both sides. They had not been defeated at home since 2002 in this competition so theres a little revenge planned for Quins today. Man for man Stade Francais are a better outfit and are very much fancied to be in the shake up at the end and it would be an even bigger surprise if they didn’t at least reach the semis. Some poor handling will need to be improved and their decision making was also very questionable the last evening as they didn’t look up for a fight at all.
Dean Richards Harlequins side sit n pole position and have given themselves a great chance of progressing to the next round. Today’s game will be a huge test of their character though as they aim to show that last weeks result wasn’t a fluke. They had the advantage mentally last week as they made a lot more use of possession and clearly rattled their opponents with their determination. Danny Care and Nick Evans are the pivotal players for them and they both need to be on top form to reproduce another win.

Verdict
This ones a little short but I can’t pass up Stade at those odds. Another defeat today will be a serious blow to them and they wont be as laid back as last week where I think a little complacency had crept in. Its do or die for them and I expect a hugely improved performance. The pressure is now on the home side to reproduce the form they showed last week and that might prove too much for them. If Stade get in front early on then this could be over in no time.

PICK

Stade Francais Paris ( 2.2 @ ladbrokes) 5 points

Tuesday night

Roma V Bordeaux

This is not normally a night i get involved as many teams already know their fate and dont send out their strongest sides. However i like the look of this game as both still have a lot to play for and both need a win to be sure of progressing to the knock out stages. Roma have overcame a poor start to lead the group from Chelsea by 1 point. This in no small way has been down to the recovery of injuries and the return to form of Totti. A draw would be good enough for Roma but in order to finish first they need to win which means they will avoid drawing the likes of Barcelona and Manchester United.
Probable Starting Team – Doni; Cicinho, Juan, Mexes, Riise; Brighi, De Rossi, Perrotta; Menez, Baptista; Totti

Bordeaux need the win full stop. Anything less and they are looking at Uefa Cup for the rest of the season. Laurent Blanc's side need to show the same desire that they did against Chelsea last time out and definately have what it takes to get on the scoresheet and make this one interesting. Roma won the reverse fixture 3 - 1 in Bordeaux so a little payback should be in order. They have a few injury problems though and Valverde will be trying to prove himself in goal and they will look to Diarra and Gourcuff in midfield for some creativity
Probable Starting Team – Valverde; Jurietti, Diawara, Chalmé, Planus; Diarra; Fernando, Wendel, Gourcuff; Cavenaghi, Chamakh

Verdict
Both need the win so we should see some good open football. Roma have been playing well of late and i expect them to win but they do look dodgy at the back sometimes and i expect to see Bordeaux get on the scoresheet at some stage. A 2 - 1 or 3 -1 home win is my call but i prefer to go with the overs bet hers and hopefully we dont have to wait to long for it to come in. There were plenty of goals and chances for more in the first clash between these two and im looking for the same tonight.

PICK
Roma V Bordeaux 0ver 2.5 goals ( 1.99 @ canbet) 5 points

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Championship football

Wolves V Derby

1st against 16th here and im fully expecting Wolves to bounce back from a dissapointing 1 - 0 defeat to QPR at the weekend. In that game Wolves looked surprisingly disjointed and didnt look like the side that has been banging in goals for fun since the season started. To top off that bad result, Reading and Birmingham both won to cut Wolves lead to just 3 points at the top. At home Wolves have been generally solid with 8 wins from 10 and 22 goals scored. Molineaux is usually a tough place to go, especially midweek when not so many away fans ten to make the journey.
Derby were beaten 2 -1 at the weekend by Palace and really need to get a few points together to avoid being dragged near the bottom and the christmas period is going to be a busy one for them. They have only taken 1 points from the last 4 games and have looked very poor in their last 3 away games losing Reading Ipswich and Burnley failing to score in these games.

Verdict
Wolves need 3 points here and its important for the teams confidence that they bounce back with a win. They have thrown away big leads at the top of this league before and they will hope not to do so again this year. They are a good side at home and i dont see that Derby have enough up front to trouble them.

Wolves -1 asian (1.98 @ canbet) 5 points



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Burnley V Cardiff

This one is based on the strengths and weaknesses of two sides. Burnley are a very good outfit on their own turf and look to extend a 12 game unbeaten run tonight.
Burnley are full of confidence at home and have sent Premiership big boys Arsenal and Chelsea crashing from the Carling Cup at Turf Moor. They have not conceded in the last 4 at home and in just over 9 hours in all competitions, a remarkable achievement.
Last 4 home

Burnley	1	0	Reading	28/10/2008
Burnley	2	0	Norwich	01/11/2008
Burnley	0	0	Doncaster	22/11/2008
Burnley	3	0	Derby	29/11/2008

Cardiff on the other hand have been reliant on their home form and have only won once in the last 8 on their travels, that coming against strugglers Nottingham Forest. They have drawn a good share of away game but have yet to face any real quality and still face trips to the top 3.Tonight will be a big test of their credentials.
Cardiff have the division’s second top scorer, Ross McCormack but unfortunately for them he is injured tonight and with his absence goes the only real threat they had coming into this game. Skipper Stephen McPhail is still suspended and Michael Chopra is expected to lead the line in attack.
Last 4 away

Nott'm Forest	0	1	Cardiff	25/10/2008
Q.P.R.	1	0	Cardiff	08/11/2008
Plymouth	2	1	Cardiff	22/11/2008
Swansea	2	2	Cardiff	30/11/2008

Verdict
Burnley are on fire at home at the moment and why not jump on board. Cardiff are not the best visiting side and have a poor record in midweek games. I really like the odds on the home win here and cant help having a bit o Burnley to win to nil prices up at 3.6 at Paddy power, a feat that has happened in their last 4 home games

PICK
Burnley win ( 2.15 @ canbet) 4 points
Burnley win to nil ( 3.6 @ paddy Power) 3 points

Saturday's bets

Time is not on my side today jut just a few brief notes on my picks.

Chelsea look more comfortable on the road away from “fortress” Stamford bridge and should probably pick up another 3 points today at Bolton, another team who are not playing so well in front of their home support. Chelsea’s away record is pretty special with 7 wins from 7 so that is a stat that they would like to keep going.
Chelsea have a huge pick of players and after defeat to Arsenal last time out will be keen to get back on track
Chelsea to win to nil is 2.4 at Paddy Power and il have some of that.

Manchester United are facing a club in crisis at the moment. Sunderland have dropped down to the bottom 3 after a poor run and are now managerless too. Should be cakewalk for United who need to win to close the gap at the top. Il be having a small punt on 3 and 4 nil wins for United as well as laying no hat trick at betfair.

Out side of the premiership there should be wins for Birmingham at home to Waterford in the championship and Leicester at home to Southend should also be too strong.

PICKS
Chelsea win to nil (2.4 @ paddy power) 4 points

Manchester United to win 3 - 0 (8 @ skybet) 1 point
Manchester United to win 4 - 0 (11 @ bluesq) 1 point
Lay no hat trick (betfair 1.12) liability 1 point- profit = 8.3 points

Birmingham – 1 ( 2.13 @ bet365) 4 points
Leicester - 0.75 ( 1.85 @ bet365) 4 points

Uefa cup Wednesday

Sevilla FC v FK Partizan Belgrade

This one is a bit of a no brainer and really it should only be a case of how many the home side will win by. It might not be so straightforward though but after a dismal showing in the 3 – 0 defeat at home to Barcelona on Saturday night there is no doubt that the home side are out to restore a bit of pride. Mathematically this game is a must win for Sevilla as they need the 3 points to give themselves a better shot at the top 3 in the group and qualification to the next round. Fabiano will be suspended for Sevilla this coming weekend and should be a starter tomorrow. Navas will return from his suspension and Squilacci is back and should be fit to play.
Partizan have little to play for but pride. 0 points to date and no chance of qualifying begs the question if they will send a full strength squad to Spain. A surprise defeat at the weekend has cut their lead at the top of the Serbian league to 5 points. Admittedly there is a long way to go in their domestic league but that is now the priority as European dreams will have to wait until next year.

Verdict
Home side needing the points versus a poor travelling side that don’t need the points. Should be a routine home win but it’s a little hard to find any real value as the odds on the home win are too low and the asian handicap levels are set about right. Nonetheless Sevilla on their day are capable of mixing it with the best and should win this game by at least a two goal margin.
Good luck

Pick

Sevilla –1.5 (1.7 @bet365) 6 points

Manchester derby

Manchester City V Manchester United

The Manchester derby has in the past thrown up some unexpected results so the first bit of advice that I have is not to bet too big on any outcome here. At first look the 4+ odds on Man City look very very tempting, given the recent results that both sides have had. Man City ran out easy 3 – 0 winners against Arsenal but one look at the league table tells us that they are still only in 14th position, just two mere points ahead of Spurs and Newcastle, two clubs said to be in a “crisis”. The blue half’s biggest problem has been consistency. Big results seem to be followed by poor results and to challenge the top 4 as their intentions are, you need to be beating the likes of Spurs, Bolton and Boro, 3 teams that have beaten Man City in recent times. Enough of the history lesson though, at home Man City have been scoring for fun, averaging close to 3 a game.
Stephen Ireland has been in excellent form of late and lets not forget Robinho who has chipped in with 8 goals.

Last 5 home games

Man. City 6 0 Portsmouth 21/09/2008
Man. City 2 3 Liverpool 05/10/2008
Man. City 3 0 Stoke 26/10/2008
Man. City 1 2 Tottenham 09/11/2008
Man. City 3 0 Arsenal 22/11/2008

Robinho is back after an ankle strain picked up against Arsenal. Petrov and Bojinov are long term absentees. Other than that City have no other problems.

Manchester United are having some unusual problems at the moment. Goals are hard to come by and Wayne Rooney hasn’t hit the net for some time now. Consecutive 0 – 0 draws with Aston Villa and Villareal have not done much to inspire confidence at this moment and apart from a Ronaldo effort midweek against Villareal which crashed of the crossbar they looked a little poor up front. They haven’t had the best of this fixture either in recent times and will be keen to get revenge for losing both derbies last season.

Last 5 away games

Chelsea 1 1 Man. Utd. 21/09/2008
Blackburn 0 2 Man. Utd. 04/10/2008
Everton 1 1 Man. Utd. 25/10/2008
Arsenal 2 1 Man. Utd. 08/11/2008
Aston Villa 0 0 Man. Utd. 22/11/2008


After picking up a knock on International duty it appears that Berbatov is back in the fold though he may have to settle for a place on the bench alongside Gary Neville. Scholes looks set to miss also.

Verdict
Given the recent bickering between the two clubs and the jibes from Rooney and Ferguson (about City being a mid table club despite the invesments) it is safe to say that City will not need any motivation coming into this one. However on the other side of the fence United were beaten twice in the derby last year and don’t need to be reminded of that fact. Bottom line is that derbies like this are a bit of a lottery and il be looking for a few value bets in this one. A game to sit back relax and have a few pints in the process. Its Robinho’s first Manchester derby and with the spotlight, media attention and the camera’s on him it might be worth a few quid on him to get his 9th goal in 9 games at the Eastlands. A jab at the 2 – 2 correct scoreline should keep me interested throughout also.
Good luck!


PICKS
Robinho anytime scorer (3.8 @ unibet) 3 points
Correct score 2 – 2 ( 17 @ boylesports) 1 point


More to follow in the morning

My return

Im making my return to the site after taking a break from it all. Its amazing what a few weeks off betting, researching and studying can do for you. Onto the weekend and I really only have a few fancies.

Wolves V Blackpool

Wolves have been going really well this season and that’s mainly down to the scoring form of Iwelumo, Ebanks Blake and Kightly. In fact all over the field they have looked like a much-improved outfit from last season. Their defence can be a bit leaky at times but a bit like Spurs of last season Wolves just have this mentality that they can outscore the opposition. In total 14 of 17 Wolves games have gone over the 2.5 goal mark and they have been shut out only once in that spell.
Their home form is rivalled only by their two main threats to the title, Birmingham and Reading. Birmingham beat Swansea last night 3 – 2 to keep the pressure on and Reading should collect 3 points also today against Southampton so there is no room for complacency in the Wolves dressing room. 11 on their players were on midweek international duty but they have all returned with a clean bill of health.
The visiting outfit Blackpool can be more than satisfied with their opening to the season but in more recent times it has been going a bit pear shaped. Recent home defeats to Ipswich and Preston wont have helped their confidence and they have brought in former Aston Villa and England player Lee Hendrie on-loan for his experience. Blackpool have gathered more points on the road too with with the standout result a 1 – 0 win at Birmingham.

Verdict

Blackpool are no mugs on the road and this coupled with Birminghams 3 points last night and 3 points expected for Reading today should have Wolves very focused for this challenge. If their attitude is right, then this should be a comfortable home win.

PICK

Wolves – 1 euro handicap (2.63 @ betdirect) 5 points



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Reading V Southampton

Reading look to continue their great home form today against Southampton. The only time that Reading have failed to collect 3 points was against Qpr a few weeks back, a game I had the displeasure of watching where it finished 0 – 0. In the game after that Reading were shocked 1 – 0 away to Burnley. However that mini crisis seems to have been put behind then and they are looking to record 4 straight wins on the trot. Kevin Doyle has been in sensational for with 14 goals as he bids to fire Reading back into the bigtime.
Southampton are no slouches away from St Mary’s either though with 3 wins but more recently they have only managed to record one win in their last eight games and currently find themselves just outside the drop zone. Their main problem though is their inconsistency. Last weekend they were beaten 2 – 1 at home by Wolves but by all accounts left a great impression on the visiting fans with t heir slick passing and movement. The problem is though which team will turn up today? It will need to be on top form to keep this attacking Reading side at bay. Alex Pearce is on-loan from Reading and will be ineligible for today’s game, with Michael Svensson looking to replace him after his return from a knee problem. Jason Euell will also be unavailable a straight red card last weekend.

Verdict
Reading can ill afford to drop points here. Despite playing some lovely football so far they find themselves 7 points off the top so a win and a convincing win is vital.

PICK

Reading – 1 euro handicap ( 2.2 @ bluesq) 5 points

Brazil Thursday night

PALMEIRAS - SPORT CLUB DO RECIFE

My recent record is dire to say the least but im confident I can turn it around with a win tonight. Palmeiras are topping the home tables and have won 5 on the spin at home. In all they have only failed to take three points at home on the one occasion and that was back in mid July. Averaging just over two goals a game, scoring hasn’t been an issue to date and they will be keen to take the three points on offer tonight to keep up the pace with Gremio who have built up a nice little lead at the top of the table.
Sport Recife lie in 9th place but like most other teams their record on the road has been a little hazy with only two wins to show for their efforts. They have been kept out in 6 of their 12 away games and they will need a lot of luck up front t o trouble the Palmeiras defence.

Verdict
Palmeiras need the points badly and their home record speaks for itself. They are good enough to beat the handicap too and are well worth a shout to extend their home record to 6 wins.

PICK

Palmeiras – 1.25 ( 1.95 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Chelsea V Tottenham

Chelsea V Tottenham

Nothing really appealed to me over the weekend as i would rather to let another round or two passing before having a better idea of what level some teams are at.
However there is a huge gulf in class here as i feel Chelsea have the better players in almost every area on the field. Drogba is still out for Chelsea and Ballack and Essien are rated as 50/50 shots. These players are big losses to the team no doubt but Deco has settled into life here very well and should be able to dictate the play around the middle. Two wins from two with 5 goals scored and none conceded is the perfect start that Scolari was looking for. Also they are unbeaten at Stamford bridge for an astonishing 84 games now.
Spurs have been on the end of two 2 - 1 defeats now and theres already talks of a crisis albeit very early in the season for that kind of talk. Selling Keane was a strange move as he scored so often for them yet at the money they got you could hardly blame them. It will be interesting to see how new £14 million signing Roman Pavlyuchenko fits in to things as the season progresses. New signings Luka Modric, David Bentley, Heurelho Gomes and Giovani Dos Santos will all be keen to impress too.

Verdict
To date there have been two very different styles of play evident and i think that Chelsea have too much for Spurs today. It should be a decent game with plenty of goal chances for both sides but i think Chelsea have the better firepower and will take advantage of the chances they are given

PICK
Chelsea - 1 (1.69 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Saturdays picks

Coventry V Bristol City

Two teams that have started well to the season and Coventry will be eager to keep their 100% record going. For me Freddy Eastwood has and will prove to be a big hit here over the course of the coming year. His strikerate is prolific and alongside Clinton Morrison could well be a great partnership. In this fixture last year Bristol ran out easy 3 - 0 winners and that started a very bad run for Coventry so they will be eager not to let that happen again.
The visitors have a lot to live up to if they hope to achieve as much as they did last season. They are also unbeaten this year and will give a good account of themselves but the loss of centre back Jamie McCombe will be a big loss to them if they hope to keep Eastwood and Morrison under wraps.
Their defence will need to be on top form today and they have struggle to keep clean sheets in the past on the road.
Coventry to win 2 – 0 here as I feel home advantage coupled with their stronger options going forward will be the difference

PICK

Coventry 2.3 @ 188bet (5 points)

Sunday action

SPL

Dundee United V Celtic


Time to dip my feet into the SPL for a change and im going with Celtic to beat Dundee Utd today.
Utd have a truly awful record against Celtic and after their display last Monday against new boys Hamilton theres obviously not much confidence in the team. Nakamura is back for Celtic and they will be glad to have him back as they need a bit of creativity and he is sure to get the ball into the right positions going forward. Dundee are missing a few and realistically they needed all options available for this clash. Going back to the history of the two teams, Celtic have won 11 of the last 12 games here and with Rangers winning yesterday 3 points are crucial for Celtic.
Celtic have too many options going forward and this will prove the difference against a suspect looking Utd defence which struggles especially from set pieces. Celtic to win 2 - 0

PICK
Celtic - 1 ( 2.15 @ bet365) 5 points

English football

The English leagues got under way last saturday but in truth i would rather let a few rounds be played before i jump in head first. It often takes a team 3 or 4 games to get settled and we saw that especially with Man Utd last season. So for today, no Premiership bets but i will be keeping a close eye on things

Championship

Norwich V Blackpool

Norwich have hardly set the world alight so far but have just been lacking a little luck in front of goal. They have been creating plenty of chances and having a decent say in the possession stakes at their recent games but just lacking that little spark up front. Of course it could go on for a while but i think they might have better fortune today. Last season was a bit of a struggle and they need to pick up early points and this is the kind of game they should be winning.
Blackpool in truth were lucky to survive last season and their chances are looking slim this year. They sold on some of their better players and really look like a club that will struggle financially to replace them. Lacking the players from last year indicates that this will be a long tough year for them and i cant see them getting anything today. Betsson make Norwich an evens money shot and thats more than generous to me

PICK
Norwich -0.5 ( 2.01 @ betsson) 4 points


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Wolves V Sheffield Wednesday

What are the Molineux faithful to expect this season? Wolves missed out on the championship playoffs on goal difference last year and the start of the season will be vital to their chances of promotion. They always flatter to deceive but i think this could be they year where they finally do what they have threatened for the last few seasons. They have plenty of options going forward in Kightly, Keogh, Ebanks-Blake and Chris Iwelumo. This is where i give them the major advantage today as Wednesday have often been weak at the back. Sheffield Wednesday were excellent in their 4 - 1 win against Burnley but it came at a cost, Sam Sodje who had bagged two goals was forced off through injury and it will be very interesting to see how they cope without him in the next few weeks. Up front his absence will be a huge blow and he's a loss mentally to the team also as they will struggle for goals without him.
Wolves haven't set the world alight just yet but should start off their home campaign with 3 points.

PICK

Wolves win (1.9 @ expect) 6 points


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Reading V Plymouth

To be honest its always hard to know how a team will react when they have been relegated. Some will show determination and resolve and make a dam good attempt to bounce back whereas others struggle as they lose too many games that their heads have already won. So where do Reading fit in? I would have liked to see them stay in the premiership last year but things went horribly wrong for them. Doyle had a terrible year and they lacked goal power to threaten some of the bigger teams. But back in the championship they might be a little too strong for some teams. They have kept the most of their squad together and look determined to bounce back at the first attempt.
Plymouth did enough to earn a 2 - 2 draw at home to Wolves last week but on the road they might struggle, in fact i think its going to be tough for them to survive and games like this will probably be better for them to get out of the way early on. The lack creativity which is their main problem and against opponents like today chances are you will have to score at least once to have any chance of taking something from the game. I just cant see them scoring at the Madjeski. Reading to win 2 - 0 comfortably

PICK
Reading - 1 ( 2.22 @ betsson) 5 points

Champions league qualifying

SHAKHTAR DONETSK - DINAMO ZAGREB

Shakhtar are a very good team and really should have done better than they did at last years champions league. They have some quality players in their ranks and have taken over from Kiev as the nations top domestic side. They have started off their league campaign a little slowly but this is the tie that will define their season so its fair to say that they will be a lot more motivated tonight. At home they have a decent record in Europe as teams like Celtic found out last year.
Dinamo have a great history and will be no pushovers but history also says that it is nearly 10 years since they reached the knockout stages. They have lost out a couple of times at this stage and really were up against it from the moment the draw was made. They have to start their second choice goalkeeper, a 20 year old and tonight will be a huge test of his character. Their best chance is to keep it as tight as possible and to give themselves a chance in the return leg but for me the hosts have a little quality all over the field and should do enough tonight to give themselves some breathing space for the away leg

PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk – 1 asian (2.08 @ mansion) 5 points


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GALATASARAY- STEAUA BUCHAREST

Two teams with experience and history. Financially this game means a lot to both sides and im expecting a tight clash here. Galatasaray missed out last year so will be keen to get back into the group stages where they have been a tough side to beat, especially at home. They have a fantastic record in these qualifying rounds and despite winning the Turkish league last year, brought in German coach Michael Skibbe to help them out for occasions specifically like this.
Steaua are no mugs either but had a disappointing campaign last year where they only recorded 1 point, a 1 – 1 draw at home to Slavia Prague. Goals remain to be their biggest problem and they could only manage one goal in their three home games last year in the group stages. Janos Szekely is their winger and he is missing tonight and his absence will limit their creativity going forward.
All in all I see Gala taking a lead to the away leg, and most likely a clean sheet as well.


PICK
Galatasaray –0.75 ( 2 @ bet365) 5 points

GAA on Saturday

Tyrone V Mayo

This is a very hard one to call and no matter what i do im going to have a little saver on the draw as i see this being very tight. Neither have really impressed to date and poor shooting cost Mayo another Connaught crown. Tyrone had a decent win over Westmeath but that kind of game suited them as Westmeath play a similar style of football. Sean Cavanagh took a serious tumble in that game and though he is due to start here i would have serious doubts about his fitness after such an injury. If he has a poor game then its the end of the road for Mickey Harte's men.
This is very even and not reflected in the prices offered by the bookies. Reputation has made Tyrone favourites here and i simply have to back Mayo as they offer far better value, with a small saver on the draw.

Pick
Mayo win (2.75 @ bet365) 3 points
Draw ( 8.5 @ bet365) 1 point


Down V Wexford

Another tough game to call and its hard to know if Wexford have got over that humiliating defeat to Dublin at Croker aa few weeks back. If they show any sign of weakness then Down will destroy them as they are a good team to rack up big scores. Wexfords weakness is in the middle where they lack mobility. Both have suspect defenses and good scoring forwards so i would imagine this should be a good open match with plenty of scores. I went with Benny coulter last week to score first and will try again, he always seems to get into great positions.
I think Down will shade this one

PICK
Race to 10 points - Down ( 1.8 @ bet365) 4 points
1st goalscorer - Benny Coulter ( 7 @ bet365) 1 point

Shelbourne V Athlone Town

Just a quick look at the stats on this meeting points towards under 2.5 goals. The Irish leagues are not too well known for large scoring games where defensive minded play is the first train of thought. Shelbourne sit in 4th and really need the three points tonight to put them back into the top 2. However they have not won at home in three and are finding goals hard to come by and have been shut out in 3 of the last 4 games. In fact of the 10 home games they have played this season 9 have finished under 2.5 goals.
Athlone also are in need of points tonight to try and distance themselves from the bottom two at the bottom of the table. Goals are also their downfall and they have not scored in their last three games. Much like Shels here, Athlone have a very similar record as far as goals per game go. 10 played away from home and 8 finished under.

Verdict
A narrow 1 - 0 win for the home side here but unders looks to be the best bet

PICK
Under 2.5 goals (1.72 @ paddy power) 4 points

GAA for the weekend

A couple of football games to chose from today but with home venue playing such a vital part of any teams chances its kind of hard to find value.

Limerick V Kildare

One that looks good to me is Limerick to progress to the next round at the expense of Kildare. Limerick were ruthless last weekend in their demolition of hot favourites Meath and have been priced up as best priced 1.73 chances for this game. They discovered an amazing new talent in Ian Ryan who scored 3 - 7, a remarkable individual score for any player. Obviously his cover is blown now but i would expect him to be well marked and if Kildare make the mistake of concentrating on him then they will be punished by the other forwards. Confidence is high amongst Limerick now and on home soil should have enough to take their championship through to the next round. Kildare needed a last minute goal last weekend against Cavan to make it this far. Their over reliance on Doyle in the last few years has hindered their progress and they now find it hard to make scoring chances.

Verdict
Limerick are full of confidence and playing at home should give them an extra 2 or 3 point advantage that should see them win by 3 0r 4 points. They have the better overall play and create more scoring chances which will give them the edge.


Laois V Down

Two teams here that you just cannot rely on for betting purposes, too often both win when they shouldn't and lose games that they should win at a canter. Down start as favourites and rightly so but Laois on their own patch are a tough nut to crack. Based on form though you would have to plump for the Mourne men and they certainly in good scoring form grabbing 5 - 19 in their last outing against Offaly. il keep it short here, i think that this has the potential to be an open entertaining game and i think we could see a few goals in this. Benny Coulter has an eye for the net and at 8 (paddy power) he certainly is worth a small punt. If this is as open as i expect it to be then i think the best punt is over 2.5 goals at powers. Down scored 5 on their own last weekend and Laois are well capable of getting goals
Over 2.5 goals is my choice


PICKS
Limerick - 1 point (1.91 @ bet365) 4 points 5 points

Laois V Down over 2.5 goals ( 2.5 @ paddy power) 4 points
Benny Coulter 1st goalscorer (8 @ paddy power) 1 point

1 year anniversary of the blog

One year in and the blog is 117 points in profit overall. I have had some good months and some bad months but i guess anytime your showing a profit over a long period of time then you must be doing something right. Over the course of the year im showing a 12% profit so while many others claim to win all the time i wont. 12% may not sound like a massive increase in the bank but its much better than being -12% !
Im busy trying to make time to work on the new website, as im a bit of an amatuer at these things its taking a little longer than i forecasted. Other than that im more or less waiting for the football to start up again. The Irish season is running at the moment but its not a league i ever really got into and i find it hard enough to predict at times. If anyone is interested in writing a column now and then for the new website then contact me by email and let me know.
Thanks!

Euro 2008 final

Germany V Spain

In one corner, wearing the white we have the three time champions Germany. In the other corner, the great pretenders, The Spanish with one major title to their name. After all is said and done, all the talk about every team these are the final two. I must admit that I am on the two of these from the beginning so I cannot lose either way but after a few rounds of matches I really though the Netherlands would be the team to beat. However they departed at the hands of the Russians and apart from the Russian no other side really threatened to go all the way.
The best way to look at this game is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of both sides. From a neutral point of view the two teams have both in abundance.

Lets start with the Germans.
Weaknesses – Lehmann, he is just not good enough at this level and he had a shocker against Turkey which almost cost them. Mertesacker and Metzelder are not the most convincing of centre backs either and will have it all to do to keep out An attacking Spanish side.
Strengths – Lahm, he’s a great little player, gets into great attacking positions and well able to put in a cross.
Podolski and Schweinsteiger are proven goal getters and Schweinsteiger in particular is very good from set pieces and added to the arial threat of Klose this is somewhere that the Germans can exploit.

Spain – weaknesses. I have to say that I think their defence is also a little suspect. Ramos has not been convincing and Puyol has not been properly tested. The speed of Lahm attacking them should be interesting. I guess I would count their boss, Aragones as a weakness, his stubbornness in leaving Fabregas on the bench has been astounding, especially considering how good Fabregas has looked with every sub appearance.
Strengths – attack, Torres can score from nothing, Villa is out and his absence is a blow but when you have a player like Fabregas coming in to replace him then all is not lost. Xavi and Iniesta are good at keeping the ball and passing about so the midfield battle will be where it will be won and lost.

Verdict
At the time of writing I cannot confirm whether or not Ballack will play. As a man who has lost all types of finals through his career I think it is most likely he will play through the pain barrier. He missed the world cup final through suspension in 2002 so it would be a travesty if he were to miss again. Spain have this title of choking on the big occasion whereas Germany have the title of winning even when not at their best. Spain have the edge in terms of quality but for me this game is very even. I think there will be an even amount of chances created so it all comes down to who is better equipped to take them. For me I think it will be a bit more open than people think and we could see a few goals
I have a range of bets taken, at the very least will keep me interested until the final whistle and some at nice prices I think.
Good luck whatever you chose

PICK
Over 2 goals (1.71 @ canbet) 4 points

Schweinsteiger anytime goalscorer (7 @ paddy power) 2 points
Podolski anytime goalscorer (4 @ paddy power) 2 points

Man of the match award
Fabregas (8 @bet365) 2 points
Casillas (15 @ bet365) 1 point

GAA on sunday

Down V Armagh

The Armagh boys are the favourites here but I wouldn’t be so sure. I feel this game is being priced up on past fortunes and reputation as opposed to ability. The ulster championship is well open to many teams now and this is as good a chance as Down are going to have. In Benny Coulter they have a goal getting machine and a very potential game winner. Their cover has been blown somewhat with the win over Tyrone but in that game they showed some admirable qualities and a never say die attitude that may see them through once again. It will be tough hard hitting stuff but the value has to be with Down to keep it close and possibly pull off another great win.

PICK
Down +2 ( 2.38 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Dublin V Westmeath

Huge expectations on the Dubs here and as usual the media circus is writing up their chances of All-Ireland success at this early stage. However while i feel they will most likely win this game today i dont think it will be easy by any means. Westmeath have adopted a very "northern" style of play and Dublin might struggle to break them down. Their defence is very good and they have absolutely nothing to lose here as everyone has written them off. The handicap is far too big here in my opinion and i think Westmeath should keep this one close enough to make for a nervy finish

PICK
Westmeath + 5 (1.91 @ Boylesports) 4 points

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Back later with a Euro final preview

Euro 2008 update

Well its semi final time and after some great opening days i find myself just about in profit. The games are getting harder to predict now but as we have only one semi left its almost over. Those of you who read the blog often may or may not remember that before anything had began i tipped up both Germany and Spain as outright winners. With one selection already in the final and possibly to be joined by another im quite happy with that.
Onto tonight and the Russians have surprised me too often to go against them again. Therefore i do not have any strong opinions on the game but will have a cheeky few quid on the game to go to penalties as i feel this may go the distance.
Il be back with a final preview though so check back and we'll see can we go out with a bang.
Good luck tonight whatever you chose.

Euro 2008 quarter final

Netherlands V Russia

To be honest I was one of the people who doubted that the Dutch would make any real significant contribution to the tournament but how wrong I was. They opened up Italy and France and a largely second string side beat the Romanians to give them a 100% record thus far. Now a new task faces them in the form of the Russians who have been hard to figure out to date. In the opening game against Spain they looked outclassed and didn’t impress all that much against the Greeks side either. But then came that wonderful display against Sweden where they scored two great goals and passed the ball about with ease. On that evidence its very hard to ignore the fact that they are capable of giving the Netherlands a good game tonight.
My only concern for the Russians is that they were in action on Wednesday night in a crucial game whereas the Dutch booked this ticket a long time ago giving themselves a chance to rest players. For that reason alone I think the Dutch will have a huge advantage in the fitness stakes and that especially as the game wears on this will come into play. Also the quality of the Dutch bench is worth noting, Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar are not guaranteed starting places and they would walk onto most national sides. For Russia Arshavin is they key man, he looked sharp and eager against Sweden but surely wont have as much time and space here tonight.

Verdict
I have to go with the Dutch here, they have demonstrated devastating attacking ability and created numerous chances against Italy and France, teams noted for their defensive qualities.
It may be tight for a while but as the game progresses I think Netherlands will show their superior fitness levels and and pull away. 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 is my verdict. Overs looks to be a decent shout here also.

PICK
Netherlands – 1 (2.18 @ canbet) 4 points

Euro 2008 tonight

Switzerland V Portugal

It will be very interesting to see how both sides approach this game. Both already know their destiny so for Portugal it may be a case of resting players. Still though they will want to keep the momentum going and id be expecting a decent performance. The players who will get their chance tonight will be eager to impress Scolari and Portugal have some great attacking players to call on
The Swiss are out but will be desperate to give the home fans something to cheer about. There is no pressure on them anymore so they can at least play with a little freedom tonight. Their problem so far has been up front, they have created chances but lacked composure. Their midfield is solid and their defence could be in for a rough night so they will need to be on their toes.

Verdict
Hopefully this will be an entertaining game with a few goals and the Swiss might have something to shout about. Theres nothing stopping them from going forward a bit and being a bit more adventurous while Portugal have plenty of attacking options. Even if they field a few subs, Nani or Quaresma? These players wont weaken the team one bit and im expecting a portugal win somewhere along the lines of 2 – 1 or 3 – 1

PICK
Over 2.5 goals (2.02 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Sunday picks

One GAA pick here. Odds are available at a range of bookies and ive chosen bet365 as they have the best odds for this pick.
Its Clare +15.5 points against Kerry.
Il be heading to the game shortly so il keep it short for now. Kerry will win this, of that theres no doubt, but i think the handicap is set too high for this one. Kerry could win by 20 if they want but i think the focus will be more on trying out new players and testing new formations as opposed to running up a big score which will not tell them much. The bookies have priced this one up wrong i feel. Kerry will most likely win by 10 - 12 points and Clare will be out to keep the score respectable.

PICK
Clare +15.5 points ( 2.05 @ bet365) 5 points

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Euro 2008 picks will be up soon

Euro 2008 - Day 8

Sweden V Spain

The Euro’s have gone a bit arse ways for me in the last few games so hopefully il get back on track today. First game off is the Swedes against Spain and this should be interesting as we will find out a lot about both teams chances today. Both won their opening games but against poor opposition so it remains to be seen just how good either of these really are. Spain overcame a rather poor Russian side with Villa scoring a hat trick. Torres played very well also and was extremely unselfish in some of his passing when others would have gone on their own. Spain played some typically attractive football and passed it about well and got into great scoring positions time after time, but their defence is still rather suspect and im not convinced. Ramos had an absolute howler and will need to improve considerably or Spain could be in trouble.
Sweden came through the opening game against Greece courtesy of some great play by Ibrahimovic. Interestingly he had not scored in a Swedish jersey since 2005 so hopefully he is back on track. Henrik Larsson will also be vital today. He will be up against Puyol and he will know the best way to get by him from his days at Barca. Overall the Swede’s are a very decent organised side who are well able to score. Christian Wilhelmsson is out injured though and this is cause for concern as he played well on day 1.


Verdict
As it stands I fancy both sides to go through but whoever finishes in second will have to face Portugal in the next round so a draw is not so good for either. Id like to see an open attacking game and that’s what im expecting. Goals then is the obvious choice

PICK
Over 2 goals (2.25 @ boylesports) 4 points


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Greece V Russia

Two teams without a point and defeat for either means an early exit for the loser so both will be keen to take the three points.
Neither side impressed too much in the opener but at least Greece looked like getting a result. The Russians caved in far too early and never really looked like getting anything from the game. Even when they were behind they never attacked the game as if they were desperate for a result, inatead they passed it about and didnt seem too worried.
Greece don’t play the most attractive football but it is usually effective. For large parts of the Sweden game they looked comfortable but my only concern was the lack of a threat up front. The defence is the first priority but Otto Rehhagel is likely to be a little more adventurous tonight.
Russia are a well drilled team and have a great leader in Hiddink. However they are sorely missing their top scorer Pogrebnyak and look very tame up front.


Verdict
Il keep it short and sweet, why the Russians have been installed as favourites im not sure but one thing is for certain and that is that Greece wont go out as defending champions without a fight. I would give the Greeks the slight edge but am very weary of a draw so Greece +0.5 is my choice in a low scoring encounter

PICK
Greece +0.5 (1.69 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Euro picks for today

Busy weekend with a good bit to chose from. After a great start to the Euros, things have gone a a bit pear shaped for me but were still in profit. Im still angry about the 93rd minute goal conceded by Poland but anyhow, onwards and upwards. il be back later with my Euro picks and also a very strong selection for tomorrow in Gaa. Check back later, about 1 or 2 pm.

Euro 2008 - Day 7

Italy V Romania

We all know what happened in the first round games here. Italy were thumped 3 – 0 by the Netherlands and Romania played out a 0 –0 with France. After the Dutch game I was very fast to write off Italy but in hindsight maybe I didn’t give them enough credit. On watching the highlights of the game I think it is fair to say that everything went right for the Dutch whereas Italy did not have any luck in front of goal. Who knows if Toni had scored that great chance when they were 2 – 0 down then anything could have happened.
Anyhow onto today and this is a must win game for both sides. I think Italy have much more in terms of ability and luckily for this bet they are a humiliated team and playing for pride. Romania are very limited and happy to frustrate teams and try to take their chances on the counter attack. However the Italian defence got a lesson the last night so I would expect them to tighten up at the back considerably. The introduction of Grosso and Del Piero brought a bit of spark to the Dutch game so hopefully they will start tonight.

Verdict
Taking the two opening games into consideration I would say that the scoreline was harsh on Italy and flattered the Romanians a little as they didn’t really try to come out and score.
Italy do have the technical advantage and I don’t expect them to take this challenge lightly or to make the same defensive errors again. Italy win for me.

PICK
Italy win (1.73 @ paddy power) 5 points

Euro 2008 - Day 6

Austria V Poland

Pre tournament everybody was saying how bad Austria were and that they would be the whipping boys. On opening day they were very unlucky not to get something from the game against Croatia. The big question is, did they play above themselves? And if the answer is yes then can they do it once more. Croatia looked very tired for some reason and despite some decent scoring chances the Austrians just could not score. Striker Roland Linz looks set to miss and if he is out his absence will be a huge blow.
Poland lost the opening game 2 – 0 but were always up against it against tournament favourites Germany. They still made 2 or 3 chances and maybe if a little sharper in front of goal could have got a result. Nevertheless the introduction of Roger Guerreiro at half time brought a new dimension to the Polish attack and he looked very dangerous. I hope he is starting tonight.
A result is vital for both sides tonight but I think people are over reacting on the opening day results and not giving Poland much credit. Remember they finished above Portugal in the qualifying group so the players are there. Austria are outside the top 100 in the world rankings and even though they played well on day 1 I still think they will finish bottom of the group. A Poland win would set them up nicely for the last game against Croatia and that is how I see this one going.

Verdict
A Poland win is where I see this one going. 1 – 0 or 2 – 0 perhaps. Im quite surprised at the odds but think this is a reaction to the opening fixtures. Just because you are the home nation does not entitle you to any advantage, just ask the Swiss about last night.

Pick
Poland ( 2.32 @ pinnacle) 4 points


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Croatia V Germany

Interesting tie here, both teams were well talked as pre tournament faves. Both won on opening day but under different circumstances. Germany were their usual selves and played some good football against Poland. Croatia looked very tired and were hanging on to a 1 – 0 lead for much of the game against whipping boys Austria. Maybe over confidence or whatever im not sure but they certainly didn’t do anything to convince me they should be backed as outside favourites. Germany powered through Poland. Two goals from Podolski and in truth they could have easily had 2 or 3 more. On saying that though they left a few spaces at the back but luckily for them Poland couldn't capitalise.
Now normally I would jump on a German win here but I'm cautious for one reason. If this game is level with say 10 or 15 minutes to go then you could see both sides sit back and take the foot off the pedal as a draw is good enough for both sides. Germany face Austria in the last game so realistically have 3 points there if they want. Croatia would then head into the game against Poland knowing a draw would be enough (presuming Poland win tonight)
On that basis I think it might just finish a draw. Therefore for me the better value is to find a first goalscorer
Klose and Gomez got into enough scoring chances against Poland but unselfishly laid the ball off. I think both of them will be well up for this again tonight so will go for either of them to score first with small stakes.

PICKS
Klose 1st goal – 7 @ coral ( 1 point)
Gomez 1st goal – 7 @ coral ( 1 point)

Euro 2008 - Day 5

Portugal V Czech Republic

First things first, I do not rate the Czech’s. They were lucky in qualifying and really lucky to get by the Swiss in the opening fixture. Without Rosicky they really do not possess the attacking threat needed to be considered as candidates to win.
Probable starting line-up (4-4-2): Cech - Grygera, Ujfalusi, Rozehnal, Jankulovski - Sionko, Matejovsky, Galasek, Kovac, Plasil - Koller
Portugal on the other hand can score goals from anywhere and have exciting attacking options, especially from the midfield in.
Probable starting line-up (4-3-3): Ricardo - Bosingwa, Pepe, Carvalho, Ferreira - Moutinho, Petit, Deco - Quaresma, Nuno Gomes, Ronaldo
As I see it, Portugal have the upper hand here in all areas and have a full squad to chose from. Winning the game is vital for both sides but again I think Portugal will want to wrap up qualification as early as possible and perhaps rest a few players in the final group game.

Verdict
Portugal look good to me and have too much attacking ability. They are a fast moving team and should have too much pace for the Czech’s.

PICK
Portugal (2 @ betsense) 4 points


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Switzerland V Turkey

Im doing my best to find an angle here but to no avail. The Swiss deserved something from the opening round but didnt get it and now are without Frei. Turkey were poor against Portugal and were lucky that they were only beaten by 2 goals.

No bet for me

Euro 2008 - Day 4

Actually i am not doing anything for either of tonights games. Im just not familiar with the teams to make an informed decision. The Greeks defensive organisation may prove to be too much for Sweden but the Swede's have a match winner in Ibrahimovic so anything is possible.
I thunk Spain should be good enough to beat the Russians also but not at the odds. The Russians have Gus Hiddink in charge and he is a man capable of miracles so for me its a game best left alone.
Good luck whatever you chose!

Euro 2008 - Day 3 - The group of Death

France V Romania

Everyone seems to be siding with the French here and im not sure why. France are beatable, any Scottish fan can tell you that and they are typically slow starters at big tournaments.
Romania deserve a lot of credit for how they qualified, finishing above the Netherlands who are also in the same group as them. They are a very organised unit with a decent defence in the shape of Chivu, Contra, Tamas, Goian and Rat. This is a huge test for them but they are in the perfect position as nobody really gives them a chance and doesn’t everyone love to be tagged an underdog? I guess what people are saying about the French now is very similar to what people were saying 2 years ago before they reached the world cup final. William Gallas and Lillian Thuram are the centre backs while Makélélé is in the middle with Toulahan who replaces the injured Viera. Ribery is sure to be the main player and if he’s on form then anything is possible here. Up front Domenech has to chose from Henry, Benzema and Anelka and it appears he will rest Henry.
Predicted line-up: Coupet; Sagnol, Abidal, Gallas, Thuram; Toulalan, Makélélé, Ribéry, Malouda; Anelka, Benzema
Romania come into this competition without the injured reserve goalkeeper Danut Conman and midfielder Ovidiou Petre but they have little to worry about otherwise.
Predicted line-up: Labont; Contra, Rat, Goian, Tamas Chivu; Radoi, Dica, Petra; Mutu, Marica

Verdict
This is the group of death so every game is vital. I have a feeling that the tag of underdogs might play right into the Romanians hands here and they can get a result. The French have a habit of disappointing when they should win and haven't convinced me enough to say that they should be as low as 1.83 in places. The main advantage they have here is in terms of experience but I think the organised Romanians can frustrate the French and take a result.

Pick
Romania +0.5, +1 (1.82 @ gamebookers) 4 points


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Netherlands V Italy

Interesting clash here. Italy are the same as usual, even without Cannavaro they have a world class defence and probably be in the final 4 whenever that time comes. Luca Toni had an amazing season and he will no doubt fancy his chances here against a suspect looking Dutch back four.
The Netherlands were dealt a massise blow midweek when they learned that Arjen Robben will miss this game through injury. His absence seriously limits the Dutch teams attacking options. They have a few casualties to deal with too as Clarence Seedorf pulled out before the tournament and Ryan Babel injuring himself in training. Robain Van Persie has spent most of the last season injured and its unlikely he will play tonight.
With the exception of Cannavaro, Italy have more or less a full squad to chose from.

Verdict
Il keep it short and sweet, I think the Dutch are going to have it all to do to qualify here. I think the Italians are the best side in the group and will most likely emmerge as winners. They have a top notch defence and will fancy themselves going forward against a weak Dutch defence. If Robben was playing id be a little more optomistic for the Dutch but without his creativity and speed I don’t see where the goals will come from.
Italy draw no bet for me

PICK
Italy +0 ( 1.7 @ bet365) 5 points