As soon as you see some fixtures you immediately think of goals and this one is no different. What really helps my chances here apart from the obvious goalscoring talents of both teams is the fact that I really fancy Sevilla to get a good result here. It’s a crucial time of the year for them and they badly need a win to help their chances of a top 4 finish. Barca have slipped up in the title race and allowed Villarreal to sneak back into it so there could be a few twists yet.
Reals home form reads with 12 wins from 14 attempts and their games have averaged 3.6 goals at the Bernabeau. They have a few injury worries in the defence which means that Heinze will be pushed into the middle which I cant say will suit him. At the best of times their defence looks suspect and its very hard to see them keeping Kanoute and Fabiano out.
Pepe is ruled out through injury as are Metzelder and van Nistlerooy.
Likewise Sevilla have a few problems in their defence also. Their away games have averaged over 3 goals a game also and they are a team that simply outscores other teams, even if they concede one or two goals. Kanoute is playing very well at the moment and Capel has also shone in the last few weeks especially. Losing to Atletico Madrid last week was a setback but they often keep their best performances for Real and will not be one bit afraid of taking the game to the hosts here. They have won the last 3 meetings between the two with an impressive goals difference and the pressure is on Real tonight as the fickle home fans are starting to lose patience. Ivica Dragutinovic (injury) and Maresca (suspension) are the only absentees
Verdict
I see plenty of goals coming here and hopefully an exciting open attacking game. For a fixed bet before the game starts il be taking over 3 goals. Il also be laying Real and taking that one in play.
Good luck!
PICK
Over 3 goals (2.09 @ canbet) 5 points
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Saturday Football picks
Portsmouth V Wigan
I know it’s easy to say at this stage of the year that every game is critical for both sides and the same can be said here. Pompey need the three points to keep their European challenge going whereas Wigan need 3 points for different reasons at the foot of the table.
Portsmouth are a tricky team to call. Either very hot or very cold. Their home form has been patchy but they are unbeaten at Fratton Park in the last 5 and showing signs of improvement. Jermaine Defoe has been a real boost to them and they will look to him again today to keep up his great strike rate. He missed last weeks clash with Spurs due to a clause in his contract so expect him to be raring to go today. 3 successive wins has put Portsmouth into 6th place and they will be trying to keep the pressure on Everton with another win today.
Wigan have given themselves a fighting chance of survival with good results against Bolton, Man City and Arsenal but it is their away form that is really hurting them. Just 1 away win (at Derby) and a shocking defensive record in which they have conceded almost 2 a game has done them no favours. Despite the arrival of Marlon King they have found goal hard to come by with only 1 in the last 4 away outings.
Verdict
Portsmouth just have too much firepower for this Wigan side. I do think they will stay up but wont have any satisfaction here today. It may also be worth a few bob to have Defoe as a first goalscorer.
PICK
Portsmouth win ( 1.8 @ expekt) 5 points
Defoe 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ bet365) 1 point
Coventry V Plymouth
Coventry’s recent home form has really pulled them out of a rut and given them a great chance at surviving the drop. Unbeaten in the last 6 with 6 clean sheets to their name they have become a much more organised defensive unit. On the road it’s a little different but for now we’ll concentrate on that home record.
Chris Coleman has done an excellent job since his arrival and has them working together. As I mentioned their success has been based around a tough backline which has proved hard to break down. The question is can they keep out Plymouth. The Pilgrims look set for a playoff spot and they too have being playing some decent football in recent times. On the road though they have only scored in 3 of the last 8 attempts and without Peter Halmosi, missing through suspension, it’s very hard to see where that creative spark will come from.
Verdict
Im torn between two bets here at pretty much the same odds. The two im stuck on is Coventry draw no bet as I feel there is the threat of a 0 – 0 draw. The other im stuck on is under 2.5. Coventry have a great defensive record but are not the best at scoring.
Unders is what il go with. Maybe a small punt on 1 – 0 to the home side is also worth a shout.
PICK
Coventry V Plymouth under 2.5 goals (1.67 @ betdirect) 4 points
Coventry 1 - 0 win (4.5 @ expekt) 1 point
Bournemouth V Millwall
Another home side that have played well at home recently and have a very slim yet possible chance of surviving. They have just gone after every game and played like it were their last and have looked a little more composed. More importantly they have been scoring goals and giving themselves a fighting chance. It was always going to be an uphill battle after having 10 points deducted from them but they are 4 games unbeaten at home now and really having a go at it. A 2-1 victory over play-off chasing Tranmere on Monday means that Bournemouth have won seven of their last 11 home matches, a very impressive stat.
Millwall had back-to-back away wins over Swansea and Yeovil but have failed to win in the three games since then. A goalless draw against Luton was a poor result for them. It still looks like they will beat the drop but there may be a few nervous times ahead and they wont get any loose change from Bournemouth today.
Verdict
Millwall have only kept 4 clean sheets from 18 in 2008 and given the scoring form that the home side are in its hard to oppose them. This match is critical for the home side but the draw is my biggest worry i think so it may be wiser to take them level ball
PICK
Bournemouth +0 ( 1.82 @ canbet) 5 points
Luton V Crewe
It would appear that Luton are heading for the 2nd division again. A squad lacking in numbers and off the field problems have ruined their season. Despite a battling 0 – 0 draw at the Den on Easter Monday things look bleak. Their recent home record looks ok mainly due to a 3 – 0 win over Oldham but on closer inspection you would find that on that day Oldham were struggling badly for numbers due to injuries and suspensions and never really travelled with any hope. Other than that 4 defeats in 7 has more or less sealed their fate.
Crewe on the other hand are much different. A run of only two defeats in the last 10 games has given them a massive chance to escape relegation for another year and they were most unlucky not to collect all three points against Walsall on Monday conceding in the 94 th minute to draw 1 – 1
Their away form has been most impressive and they are unbeaten in the last 5.
Verdict
It may be short but I think Crewe have the edge here and would sooner have my money on them. Luton are hard to predict but seem to be going through the motions at the moment and have possibly accepted their fate. A Crewe win or draw is my choice here.
PICK
Crewe 0, +0.5 ( 1.76 @ canbet) 4 points
Chester V Stockport
The home side are in a bit of dissaray at the moment and have lost 8 of the last 9 at home failing to score in 7 of them! On the road they have also lost 4 on the trot so they are a team bang out of form and have to be opposed.
They may have stopped the rot with a 2 – 1 win over Darlington last week but that will only focus the visitors even more in my book as they wont take the 3 points for granted.
Stockport are a team in tremendous form and have put together a nice little run of 3 pointers. On the road they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 8 of those. They were held 0 – 0 by Wycombe last week and I feel that maybe a little complacency had crept in but that was still a good result for them.
Verdict
Two teams in vastly contrasting form. The away side are winning for fun and look good to get another win.
The home side are bang out of form at the moment and have achieved better results away from home this year. I don’t see any reason to back them.
PICK
Stockport win ( 2 @ Betfred) 4 points
I know it’s easy to say at this stage of the year that every game is critical for both sides and the same can be said here. Pompey need the three points to keep their European challenge going whereas Wigan need 3 points for different reasons at the foot of the table.
Portsmouth are a tricky team to call. Either very hot or very cold. Their home form has been patchy but they are unbeaten at Fratton Park in the last 5 and showing signs of improvement. Jermaine Defoe has been a real boost to them and they will look to him again today to keep up his great strike rate. He missed last weeks clash with Spurs due to a clause in his contract so expect him to be raring to go today. 3 successive wins has put Portsmouth into 6th place and they will be trying to keep the pressure on Everton with another win today.
Wigan have given themselves a fighting chance of survival with good results against Bolton, Man City and Arsenal but it is their away form that is really hurting them. Just 1 away win (at Derby) and a shocking defensive record in which they have conceded almost 2 a game has done them no favours. Despite the arrival of Marlon King they have found goal hard to come by with only 1 in the last 4 away outings.
Verdict
Portsmouth just have too much firepower for this Wigan side. I do think they will stay up but wont have any satisfaction here today. It may also be worth a few bob to have Defoe as a first goalscorer.
PICK
Portsmouth win ( 1.8 @ expekt) 5 points
Defoe 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ bet365) 1 point
Coventry V Plymouth
Coventry’s recent home form has really pulled them out of a rut and given them a great chance at surviving the drop. Unbeaten in the last 6 with 6 clean sheets to their name they have become a much more organised defensive unit. On the road it’s a little different but for now we’ll concentrate on that home record.
Chris Coleman has done an excellent job since his arrival and has them working together. As I mentioned their success has been based around a tough backline which has proved hard to break down. The question is can they keep out Plymouth. The Pilgrims look set for a playoff spot and they too have being playing some decent football in recent times. On the road though they have only scored in 3 of the last 8 attempts and without Peter Halmosi, missing through suspension, it’s very hard to see where that creative spark will come from.
Verdict
Im torn between two bets here at pretty much the same odds. The two im stuck on is Coventry draw no bet as I feel there is the threat of a 0 – 0 draw. The other im stuck on is under 2.5. Coventry have a great defensive record but are not the best at scoring.
Unders is what il go with. Maybe a small punt on 1 – 0 to the home side is also worth a shout.
PICK
Coventry V Plymouth under 2.5 goals (1.67 @ betdirect) 4 points
Coventry 1 - 0 win (4.5 @ expekt) 1 point
Bournemouth V Millwall
Another home side that have played well at home recently and have a very slim yet possible chance of surviving. They have just gone after every game and played like it were their last and have looked a little more composed. More importantly they have been scoring goals and giving themselves a fighting chance. It was always going to be an uphill battle after having 10 points deducted from them but they are 4 games unbeaten at home now and really having a go at it. A 2-1 victory over play-off chasing Tranmere on Monday means that Bournemouth have won seven of their last 11 home matches, a very impressive stat.
Millwall had back-to-back away wins over Swansea and Yeovil but have failed to win in the three games since then. A goalless draw against Luton was a poor result for them. It still looks like they will beat the drop but there may be a few nervous times ahead and they wont get any loose change from Bournemouth today.
Verdict
Millwall have only kept 4 clean sheets from 18 in 2008 and given the scoring form that the home side are in its hard to oppose them. This match is critical for the home side but the draw is my biggest worry i think so it may be wiser to take them level ball
PICK
Bournemouth +0 ( 1.82 @ canbet) 5 points
Luton V Crewe
It would appear that Luton are heading for the 2nd division again. A squad lacking in numbers and off the field problems have ruined their season. Despite a battling 0 – 0 draw at the Den on Easter Monday things look bleak. Their recent home record looks ok mainly due to a 3 – 0 win over Oldham but on closer inspection you would find that on that day Oldham were struggling badly for numbers due to injuries and suspensions and never really travelled with any hope. Other than that 4 defeats in 7 has more or less sealed their fate.
Crewe on the other hand are much different. A run of only two defeats in the last 10 games has given them a massive chance to escape relegation for another year and they were most unlucky not to collect all three points against Walsall on Monday conceding in the 94 th minute to draw 1 – 1
Their away form has been most impressive and they are unbeaten in the last 5.
Verdict
It may be short but I think Crewe have the edge here and would sooner have my money on them. Luton are hard to predict but seem to be going through the motions at the moment and have possibly accepted their fate. A Crewe win or draw is my choice here.
PICK
Crewe 0, +0.5 ( 1.76 @ canbet) 4 points
Chester V Stockport
The home side are in a bit of dissaray at the moment and have lost 8 of the last 9 at home failing to score in 7 of them! On the road they have also lost 4 on the trot so they are a team bang out of form and have to be opposed.
They may have stopped the rot with a 2 – 1 win over Darlington last week but that will only focus the visitors even more in my book as they wont take the 3 points for granted.
Stockport are a team in tremendous form and have put together a nice little run of 3 pointers. On the road they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 8 of those. They were held 0 – 0 by Wycombe last week and I feel that maybe a little complacency had crept in but that was still a good result for them.
Verdict
Two teams in vastly contrasting form. The away side are winning for fun and look good to get another win.
The home side are bang out of form at the moment and have achieved better results away from home this year. I don’t see any reason to back them.
PICK
Stockport win ( 2 @ Betfred) 4 points
Monday, March 24, 2008
League 1 on Easter Monday
Carlisle V Northampton
A win tonight will move Carlisle to within 4 points of top placed Swansea pending other results. Swansea have dropped points in recent games giving a chance for their close opponents to close the gap.
Brunton Park has been a fortress with 15 wins from 17 attempts, a truly remarkable effort. A win tonight will make it 14 in a row and they have 9 clean sheets to their record. With 7 defeats away from home it is that remarkable home record that is keeping their title challenge alive. Manager John Ward has no injury worries to contend with and looks likely to start with the same side that beat Leyton Orient last weekend.
Northampton sit in 12th spot and are still in with a shot at the playoffs. Their recent form has good of late taking some decent results against out of sorts Swansea but were beaten 2 – 1 at home to Nottingham Forest. 11 points from the last possible 18 away from home is a good return and they have based their success on good defensive play. Manager Stuart Gray has injury concerns regarding Chris Doig, Brett Johnson, Danny May and Mark Hughes.
Verdict
Carlisle obviously need the three points but may have their work cut out for them here. Despite the fact that they have scored in all but one of their home games tonight will be a good test of them. I still expect them to get the result but im not sure whether to go with the Carlisle win or unders. Northampton have proven to be a difficult side to beat but I think Carlisle will have enough to eventually get the better of them. Carlisle to win 1 – 0
PICK
Carlisle win (1.8 @ betfred) 6 points
Doncaster V Oldham
Doncaster lost valuable points on Friday night losing 2 – 1 away to Yeovil. That makes the need for a win even far greater tonight as they look to gain automatic promotion to the championship. Their home form has been solid winning the last 4 averaging 2 goals a game. In general their home record has also been good with just 4 defeat and 10 clean sheets. Gordon Greer would appear to be the only absentee.
Oldham have felt the force of a long injury list lately and were easily defeated 3 – 0 to Luton town last weekend. Manager John Sheridan has to plan without John Thompson, Andy Liddell, Lee Hughes, Craig Davies, Lewis Alessandra, Mark Crossley but Reuben Hazell returns from suspension. Apart from their 3 – 0 win against bottom side Port Vale on March 1st they have found goals hard to come by only hitting the net in two of the last 7 games.
Verdict
Short and sweet, Doncaster need a win to get back on track and should do so with little fuss against an injury ravaged Oldham side. Oldham were made to look very ordinary against Luton town last time out so Doncaster should be able to notch up another 3 points with ease.
PICK
Doncaster (1.67 @ paddy power) 5 points
A win tonight will move Carlisle to within 4 points of top placed Swansea pending other results. Swansea have dropped points in recent games giving a chance for their close opponents to close the gap.
Brunton Park has been a fortress with 15 wins from 17 attempts, a truly remarkable effort. A win tonight will make it 14 in a row and they have 9 clean sheets to their record. With 7 defeats away from home it is that remarkable home record that is keeping their title challenge alive. Manager John Ward has no injury worries to contend with and looks likely to start with the same side that beat Leyton Orient last weekend.
Northampton sit in 12th spot and are still in with a shot at the playoffs. Their recent form has good of late taking some decent results against out of sorts Swansea but were beaten 2 – 1 at home to Nottingham Forest. 11 points from the last possible 18 away from home is a good return and they have based their success on good defensive play. Manager Stuart Gray has injury concerns regarding Chris Doig, Brett Johnson, Danny May and Mark Hughes.
Verdict
Carlisle obviously need the three points but may have their work cut out for them here. Despite the fact that they have scored in all but one of their home games tonight will be a good test of them. I still expect them to get the result but im not sure whether to go with the Carlisle win or unders. Northampton have proven to be a difficult side to beat but I think Carlisle will have enough to eventually get the better of them. Carlisle to win 1 – 0
PICK
Carlisle win (1.8 @ betfred) 6 points
Doncaster V Oldham
Doncaster lost valuable points on Friday night losing 2 – 1 away to Yeovil. That makes the need for a win even far greater tonight as they look to gain automatic promotion to the championship. Their home form has been solid winning the last 4 averaging 2 goals a game. In general their home record has also been good with just 4 defeat and 10 clean sheets. Gordon Greer would appear to be the only absentee.
Oldham have felt the force of a long injury list lately and were easily defeated 3 – 0 to Luton town last weekend. Manager John Sheridan has to plan without John Thompson, Andy Liddell, Lee Hughes, Craig Davies, Lewis Alessandra, Mark Crossley but Reuben Hazell returns from suspension. Apart from their 3 – 0 win against bottom side Port Vale on March 1st they have found goals hard to come by only hitting the net in two of the last 7 games.
Verdict
Short and sweet, Doncaster need a win to get back on track and should do so with little fuss against an injury ravaged Oldham side. Oldham were made to look very ordinary against Luton town last time out so Doncaster should be able to notch up another 3 points with ease.
PICK
Doncaster (1.67 @ paddy power) 5 points
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Super Sunday
Manchester United V Liverpool
I was reading somewhere yesterday where Liverpool have not score against Man United in 3 years. If ever there was a time for them to break this trend then it could be today. A fascinating clash is in store and im really looking forward to the two games today.
From a betting perspective its very hard to see any real value in either game but I feel that both teams to score in the first game may be worth a wager.
It’s the head to head meeting of the two hot shots, Ronaldo and Torres that captures the imagination. Both are in serious form and are scoring for fun. Ronaldo has had to deal with a fair bit of criticism from his doubters who say he doesn’t do it in the big games. He has a point to prove today. Torres and Gerrard have developed a serious partnership and Liverpool fans must be already looking forward to next season where I see them as genuine title contenders for the first time in a long time.
Back to the game at hand though and it’s a hard one to call. Despite many saying this will be a low scoring affair I think the opposite. With 61 goals Man U lead the pack in the goalscoring charts. With 55 goals the Pool are not that far behind.
Manchester’s home form has been pretty impressive with 13 wins from 15attempts. However this is their first real challenge from one of the big 4 since they beat Chelsea 2 – 0 way back in September. A win today will stretch the lead out at the top and with things as tight as they are they need to take the three points on offer.
Liverpool are finally delivering some consistent displays. A win today will make it 6 in a row and make for a very interesting finish to the season. As mentioned above Torres is looking like a bargain buy and today will be a good gauge of his talent up against Ferdinand and a suspect looking Pique. At the back they are a little suspect with Hypia who can be really caught for pace at times. Javier Mascherano has being immense lately but will have his hands full if he is to stop the delivery to and from Ronaldo.
Verdict
Games have been very tight between these two in the past but finally I see there may be some value in siding with Liverpool. Over/under backers will all tell you to go with unders and its hard to argue with them as the last 5 meetings have gone under.
Overs is priced up at a high of 2.40 but for me im going with both sides to score. The reason I prefer this bet to overs is that I can see both sides scoring but as the game pushes on then both may be happy to settle for the 1 – 1 draw.
1 – 1 is my preferred scoreline for this game and il be having a wee punt on that also. Medium sized stakes for me. Good luck folks!
PICK
Manchester United/Liverpool - Both sides to score - yes (1.95 @ bet365) 3 points
1 - 1 scoreline - (7 @ unibet) 1 point
Chelsea V Arsenal
I have no bets for this game. Im going to sit down and root for the Gunners but its just too hard to call. Id love to see us winning and putting pressure on United but its a big ask. Im going to sit in peace and watch this one.
Good Luck!
I was reading somewhere yesterday where Liverpool have not score against Man United in 3 years. If ever there was a time for them to break this trend then it could be today. A fascinating clash is in store and im really looking forward to the two games today.
From a betting perspective its very hard to see any real value in either game but I feel that both teams to score in the first game may be worth a wager.
It’s the head to head meeting of the two hot shots, Ronaldo and Torres that captures the imagination. Both are in serious form and are scoring for fun. Ronaldo has had to deal with a fair bit of criticism from his doubters who say he doesn’t do it in the big games. He has a point to prove today. Torres and Gerrard have developed a serious partnership and Liverpool fans must be already looking forward to next season where I see them as genuine title contenders for the first time in a long time.
Back to the game at hand though and it’s a hard one to call. Despite many saying this will be a low scoring affair I think the opposite. With 61 goals Man U lead the pack in the goalscoring charts. With 55 goals the Pool are not that far behind.
Manchester’s home form has been pretty impressive with 13 wins from 15attempts. However this is their first real challenge from one of the big 4 since they beat Chelsea 2 – 0 way back in September. A win today will stretch the lead out at the top and with things as tight as they are they need to take the three points on offer.
Liverpool are finally delivering some consistent displays. A win today will make it 6 in a row and make for a very interesting finish to the season. As mentioned above Torres is looking like a bargain buy and today will be a good gauge of his talent up against Ferdinand and a suspect looking Pique. At the back they are a little suspect with Hypia who can be really caught for pace at times. Javier Mascherano has being immense lately but will have his hands full if he is to stop the delivery to and from Ronaldo.
Verdict
Games have been very tight between these two in the past but finally I see there may be some value in siding with Liverpool. Over/under backers will all tell you to go with unders and its hard to argue with them as the last 5 meetings have gone under.
Overs is priced up at a high of 2.40 but for me im going with both sides to score. The reason I prefer this bet to overs is that I can see both sides scoring but as the game pushes on then both may be happy to settle for the 1 – 1 draw.
1 – 1 is my preferred scoreline for this game and il be having a wee punt on that also. Medium sized stakes for me. Good luck folks!
PICK
Manchester United/Liverpool - Both sides to score - yes (1.95 @ bet365) 3 points
1 - 1 scoreline - (7 @ unibet) 1 point
Chelsea V Arsenal
I have no bets for this game. Im going to sit down and root for the Gunners but its just too hard to call. Id love to see us winning and putting pressure on United but its a big ask. Im going to sit in peace and watch this one.
Good Luck!
Saturday, March 22, 2008
La Ligo tonight
Sevilla V Atletico Madrid
I had a pretty crappy day today but hope to get a bit of success in La Liga tonight.
Both teams are fighting for that 4th spot and it looks like being a very interesting match. Everyone seems to be on overs here and im no different. Sevilla are the kind of team that don’t worry about conceding as they score so many goals. They are second only to Real in the scoring charts yet have a poor defensive record. They have averaged 2 – 3 goals at home this season. Just 2 points separates them and their opponents tonight and there is still plenty of time to get back into the top four.
Atletico are having a fine if sometimes inconsistent season. Much like Sevilla they are in fine scoring form and have hit the net in the last 7 games. In more recent times they have had 2 important away wins at Valencia and Espanyol, two places that are never easy to visit.
Verdict
I see plenty of goals in this one. Both are noted for their attacking power and both need to good performance and a win tonight. We should see a few goals and hopefully the bet will be in well before full time.
PICK
Over 2.5 goals (1.75 @ bet365) 6 points
I had a pretty crappy day today but hope to get a bit of success in La Liga tonight.
Both teams are fighting for that 4th spot and it looks like being a very interesting match. Everyone seems to be on overs here and im no different. Sevilla are the kind of team that don’t worry about conceding as they score so many goals. They are second only to Real in the scoring charts yet have a poor defensive record. They have averaged 2 – 3 goals at home this season. Just 2 points separates them and their opponents tonight and there is still plenty of time to get back into the top four.
Atletico are having a fine if sometimes inconsistent season. Much like Sevilla they are in fine scoring form and have hit the net in the last 7 games. In more recent times they have had 2 important away wins at Valencia and Espanyol, two places that are never easy to visit.
Verdict
I see plenty of goals in this one. Both are noted for their attacking power and both need to good performance and a win tonight. We should see a few goals and hopefully the bet will be in well before full time.
PICK
Over 2.5 goals (1.75 @ bet365) 6 points
Saturday action
Newcastle V Fulham
A huge game for both sides here, as relegation is a major issue for both. It’s a difficult game to call as Newcastle are in a dire run of form and haven’t won a home game since early December. Fulham haven’t won away all season though. Kevin Keegan is still waiting for that first win since taking charge at Newcastle and playing the second from bottom team is as good a chance as he is going to get. The only advantage that Fulham have is that they have actually won some games this year and taken a few draws in recent times. The return of Jimmy Bullard has been a huge boost to the club and they have actually played a bit better than their results suggest.
What to say about Newcastle? Just 3points gained in 2008 sees them in real difficulty and they could badly do with 3 points. Their defence has been a shambles and the loss of Shay Given is a big blow to them. To describe their home form should not take too long either, just 2 points taken from a possible 15 in the last 5 games, 2 scored to 9 conceded, it makes for poor reading for any fans out there.
Verdict
Newcastle have failed to beat fellow strugglers, Middlesborough, Bolton and Derby at home in the last few months. Fulham on their day are as good if not better than any of these. The Cottagers have looked to draw their games on the road and they have succeeded against the lower ranked clubs. This is a huge game for both sides and a point doesn’t really help either. Fulham beat an in form Everton last week so they definitely have a bit more in terms of confidence. Im siding with the visitors here to create a mini shock and take their first away win of the year. As Fulham have a tendency to draw games il take them level ball as insurance for small stakes.
PICK
Fulham +0 (3.4 @ paddy power) 2 points
Scunthorpe V Ipswich
Its sh*t or bust time for Scunny and they are desperately in need of 3 points today. The worst thing about their league position is that they have been playing quite well but are just lacking a little firepower, especially in their away performances.
At home they look a little better and recent wins over Plymouth, Coventry and Charlton have been massive results.
Survival is fading fast and anything but 3 points here will surely condemn them to relegation.
Ipswich are lying in 10th spot but have their sights firmly set on the play-offs. A great 2 – 0 win over Charlton last weekend will have helped their confidence but on the road they have struggled.
Just 2 wins from 19 attempts and they were hammered 4 – 1 last time out by Barnsley. They are one of the better teams in the championship when given time and space to play the ball, as they were last week v Charlton. However an away trip to a side battling for points and survival is not going to yield any time to play around with the ball and Scunthorpe’s style of play wont suit Ipswich.
Verdict
Im siding with the home side here. Their need is greater and im not so sure what Ipswich have achieved away from home to be perceived as favourites for this one. Scunthorpe have got some good results at home to beck me up here. 2.88 for the home win, though it may be tight, is too good for me to turn down.
Scunthorpe (2.88 @ bet365) 3 points
Stoke V Blackpool
Just going purely on recent form for this one. Stoke are sitting top of the pile in the championship and have been banging in goals for fun. They have scored in each of their last 8 home games and look good to take 3 points here against 15th placed Blackpool. However one look at Blackpool’s away stats suggests they will be no pushovers. They are not afraid to go forward either and 7 goals in the last 4 away games show this. In fact they have only been kept out twice on their travels so they like to score goals too. They have conceded 13 in their last 6 away games so over backers would be quite happy with their efforts
Verdict
Stoke have stumbled a bit recently and need a win here to steady the ship. I think they are more than capable but it wont be easy, they have only kept 4 clean sheets at home all season and I don’t see them holding Blackpool out. Overs looks a good call
PICK
Stoke V Blackpool over 2.5 goals ( 2.08 @ canbet) 4 points
A huge game for both sides here, as relegation is a major issue for both. It’s a difficult game to call as Newcastle are in a dire run of form and haven’t won a home game since early December. Fulham haven’t won away all season though. Kevin Keegan is still waiting for that first win since taking charge at Newcastle and playing the second from bottom team is as good a chance as he is going to get. The only advantage that Fulham have is that they have actually won some games this year and taken a few draws in recent times. The return of Jimmy Bullard has been a huge boost to the club and they have actually played a bit better than their results suggest.
What to say about Newcastle? Just 3points gained in 2008 sees them in real difficulty and they could badly do with 3 points. Their defence has been a shambles and the loss of Shay Given is a big blow to them. To describe their home form should not take too long either, just 2 points taken from a possible 15 in the last 5 games, 2 scored to 9 conceded, it makes for poor reading for any fans out there.
Verdict
Newcastle have failed to beat fellow strugglers, Middlesborough, Bolton and Derby at home in the last few months. Fulham on their day are as good if not better than any of these. The Cottagers have looked to draw their games on the road and they have succeeded against the lower ranked clubs. This is a huge game for both sides and a point doesn’t really help either. Fulham beat an in form Everton last week so they definitely have a bit more in terms of confidence. Im siding with the visitors here to create a mini shock and take their first away win of the year. As Fulham have a tendency to draw games il take them level ball as insurance for small stakes.
PICK
Fulham +0 (3.4 @ paddy power) 2 points
Scunthorpe V Ipswich
Its sh*t or bust time for Scunny and they are desperately in need of 3 points today. The worst thing about their league position is that they have been playing quite well but are just lacking a little firepower, especially in their away performances.
At home they look a little better and recent wins over Plymouth, Coventry and Charlton have been massive results.
Survival is fading fast and anything but 3 points here will surely condemn them to relegation.
Ipswich are lying in 10th spot but have their sights firmly set on the play-offs. A great 2 – 0 win over Charlton last weekend will have helped their confidence but on the road they have struggled.
Just 2 wins from 19 attempts and they were hammered 4 – 1 last time out by Barnsley. They are one of the better teams in the championship when given time and space to play the ball, as they were last week v Charlton. However an away trip to a side battling for points and survival is not going to yield any time to play around with the ball and Scunthorpe’s style of play wont suit Ipswich.
Verdict
Im siding with the home side here. Their need is greater and im not so sure what Ipswich have achieved away from home to be perceived as favourites for this one. Scunthorpe have got some good results at home to beck me up here. 2.88 for the home win, though it may be tight, is too good for me to turn down.
Scunthorpe (2.88 @ bet365) 3 points
Stoke V Blackpool
Just going purely on recent form for this one. Stoke are sitting top of the pile in the championship and have been banging in goals for fun. They have scored in each of their last 8 home games and look good to take 3 points here against 15th placed Blackpool. However one look at Blackpool’s away stats suggests they will be no pushovers. They are not afraid to go forward either and 7 goals in the last 4 away games show this. In fact they have only been kept out twice on their travels so they like to score goals too. They have conceded 13 in their last 6 away games so over backers would be quite happy with their efforts
Verdict
Stoke have stumbled a bit recently and need a win here to steady the ship. I think they are more than capable but it wont be easy, they have only kept 4 clean sheets at home all season and I don’t see them holding Blackpool out. Overs looks a good call
PICK
Stoke V Blackpool over 2.5 goals ( 2.08 @ canbet) 4 points
Saturday, March 15, 2008
football pick on Saturday
Im very caught for time so previews are not available today
Picks that make the grade are as follows
QPR (1.75 @ expekt) 5 points
Coventry (2.15 @ canbet) 4 points
Cardiff (2.6 @ betdirect) 3 points
Leeds (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points
Apologies about the lack of detail for these games but these are my chosen selections for now
Picks that make the grade are as follows
QPR (1.75 @ expekt) 5 points
Coventry (2.15 @ canbet) 4 points
Cardiff (2.6 @ betdirect) 3 points
Leeds (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points
Apologies about the lack of detail for these games but these are my chosen selections for now
Six nations on saturday
Italy V Scotland
This is an important game for both sides as Italy need to win by 5 point’s minimum to avoid the wooden spoon.
Italy have really improved this year despite not winning any game yet. Apart from that second half collapse against Wales they have battled well and hit hard. They played very well last weekend against France in Paris and were only defeated by 12 points, which is far from an embarrassment. Its also fair to say that if they worked a little more on the final pass then they could have had 1 - 2 more tries. Coach Nick Mallet has named an unchanged side for this clash with Bergamasco still suspended.
Scotland had a terrific result last weekend beating the English at Murrayfield. A poor day weather wise meant the game was a little scrappy and it all came down to kicking but the Scots wont mind that one bit. Despite that win over a very unpredictable English side I am not all that impressed by Scotland. One try in the campaign is a poor return and they have relied on frees for the majority of their scoring. They seemed to through in the towel against Ireland and they sure wont be given any respect by the Italians today. Ospreys back Nikki Walker will not be able to take his starting place on the wing for Scotland after an ankle injury flared up in training so Dan Parks will start at stand-off with Paterson on the wing Simon Danielli returns to the wing in place of Rory Lamont, who suffered a horrendous triple cheekbone fracture against England, and Fergus Thomson comes in for Ross Ford at hooker.
Verdict
So Scotland have more points on the board at this stage though I strongly fancy Italy to get the better of them today. They have a decent record against Scotland beating them in 2000, 2004 in Rome and thumping them by 20 points in Murrayfield last year.
They also met during the world cup stages where Scotland just overcame Italy 18 – 16 putting them out of the tournament.
I would imagine that this is the game that the Italians have being gearing up for all season. They knew from the start that it would be difficult with games away to Wales, Ireland and France. They ran England very close in Rome but don’t seem to have any fear of playing Scotland which should carry them through today. They made France work exceptionally hard for scores last week and should probably be able to keep a try shy Scottish side restricted to 3 pointers. If they get their handling errors sorted then they could win this easy.
Italy to win by 5 – 7 points for me.
I feel that Scotlands win over England has improved the price on Italy and only for that Italy might have been going off here at 1.75 or so
PICK
Italy –1 (2 @ bet365) 5 points
This is an important game for both sides as Italy need to win by 5 point’s minimum to avoid the wooden spoon.
Italy have really improved this year despite not winning any game yet. Apart from that second half collapse against Wales they have battled well and hit hard. They played very well last weekend against France in Paris and were only defeated by 12 points, which is far from an embarrassment. Its also fair to say that if they worked a little more on the final pass then they could have had 1 - 2 more tries. Coach Nick Mallet has named an unchanged side for this clash with Bergamasco still suspended.
Scotland had a terrific result last weekend beating the English at Murrayfield. A poor day weather wise meant the game was a little scrappy and it all came down to kicking but the Scots wont mind that one bit. Despite that win over a very unpredictable English side I am not all that impressed by Scotland. One try in the campaign is a poor return and they have relied on frees for the majority of their scoring. They seemed to through in the towel against Ireland and they sure wont be given any respect by the Italians today. Ospreys back Nikki Walker will not be able to take his starting place on the wing for Scotland after an ankle injury flared up in training so Dan Parks will start at stand-off with Paterson on the wing Simon Danielli returns to the wing in place of Rory Lamont, who suffered a horrendous triple cheekbone fracture against England, and Fergus Thomson comes in for Ross Ford at hooker.
Verdict
So Scotland have more points on the board at this stage though I strongly fancy Italy to get the better of them today. They have a decent record against Scotland beating them in 2000, 2004 in Rome and thumping them by 20 points in Murrayfield last year.
They also met during the world cup stages where Scotland just overcame Italy 18 – 16 putting them out of the tournament.
I would imagine that this is the game that the Italians have being gearing up for all season. They knew from the start that it would be difficult with games away to Wales, Ireland and France. They ran England very close in Rome but don’t seem to have any fear of playing Scotland which should carry them through today. They made France work exceptionally hard for scores last week and should probably be able to keep a try shy Scottish side restricted to 3 pointers. If they get their handling errors sorted then they could win this easy.
Italy to win by 5 – 7 points for me.
I feel that Scotlands win over England has improved the price on Italy and only for that Italy might have been going off here at 1.75 or so
PICK
Italy –1 (2 @ bet365) 5 points
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Uefa cup this thursday
Sporting Lisbon V Bolton
After going so far in the tournament it would appear that Gary Megson and Bolton have decided that Premiership survival is now the main priority. When the first leg finished 1 – 1 Boltons dream was all but over as Sporting has that vital away goal which they deserved. Now, Megson has decided that the upcoming game with Wigan on Sunday is more important and this is reflected in the players he has rested for this game. Jussi Jaaskelainen and captain Kevin Nolan, Kevin Davies, Matt Taylor, Andy O'Brien, Ivan Campo, El-Hadji Diouf and Ricardo Gardner while Gavin McCann is suspended and Tamir Cohen, Grzegorz Rasiak and Gretar Steinsson are ineligible. That right there is some of Bolton most influential players and with all them missing you would fancy Derby County to give them a beating.
Sporting Lisbon are undefeated at home in the league and have score in each home game averaging 2 a game.
In stark contrast, Bolton are pretty feeble away from the Reebok and have lost 9 times in the premiership conceding almost 2 a game.
After more than matching Bolton in England Sporting look great value to win here. Bolton have many inexperienced players travelling and performing on a big european night away from home. Also, just a though, it must have been very disheartening for Bolton to see Everton and Tottenham to go out of the cup. Both sides are much better than Bolton and the fact is that Bolton don’t possess the quality to go any further in the Uefa cup.
Verdict
Sporting to win this with a bit to spare. They have the attacking quality to get 2 or 3 goals here. Bolton have had some notable results beating Red Star Belgrade and drawing with Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid but this is a much weaker team.
Lisbon to win with a bit to spare. They should also cover the handicap but right now im just content with the odds on the straight home win.
PICK
Sporting Lisbon ( 1.62 @ stanjames) 7 points
After going so far in the tournament it would appear that Gary Megson and Bolton have decided that Premiership survival is now the main priority. When the first leg finished 1 – 1 Boltons dream was all but over as Sporting has that vital away goal which they deserved. Now, Megson has decided that the upcoming game with Wigan on Sunday is more important and this is reflected in the players he has rested for this game. Jussi Jaaskelainen and captain Kevin Nolan, Kevin Davies, Matt Taylor, Andy O'Brien, Ivan Campo, El-Hadji Diouf and Ricardo Gardner while Gavin McCann is suspended and Tamir Cohen, Grzegorz Rasiak and Gretar Steinsson are ineligible. That right there is some of Bolton most influential players and with all them missing you would fancy Derby County to give them a beating.
Sporting Lisbon are undefeated at home in the league and have score in each home game averaging 2 a game.
In stark contrast, Bolton are pretty feeble away from the Reebok and have lost 9 times in the premiership conceding almost 2 a game.
After more than matching Bolton in England Sporting look great value to win here. Bolton have many inexperienced players travelling and performing on a big european night away from home. Also, just a though, it must have been very disheartening for Bolton to see Everton and Tottenham to go out of the cup. Both sides are much better than Bolton and the fact is that Bolton don’t possess the quality to go any further in the Uefa cup.
Verdict
Sporting to win this with a bit to spare. They have the attacking quality to get 2 or 3 goals here. Bolton have had some notable results beating Red Star Belgrade and drawing with Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid but this is a much weaker team.
Lisbon to win with a bit to spare. They should also cover the handicap but right now im just content with the odds on the straight home win.
PICK
Sporting Lisbon ( 1.62 @ stanjames) 7 points
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Wednesday night action
Aston Villa V Middlesborough
I almost missed this game so this preview may be a little short. Two teams here in very contrasting form at the moment. Villa's last match was at the emirates where they went so close to beating Arsenal. They played some great stuff and even though im a gunner they probably deserved the 3 points. On a completely different note, Middlesborough didnt even turn up against Cardiff in the FA Cup semi on Sunday. They were outplayed and never got into the game. An area of weakness that cropped up very visably was their poor defence of set pieces and this is an area where i feel that the likes of Mellberg could well expose tonight.
Villa are pretty solid at home where they are undefeated since early December. Recent results include a 4 - 1 thumping of Newcastle and wins over Spurs and Reading.
Boro put up a good fight at Anfield a few weeks back before eventually losing out to a Torres hatrick. Relegation is still an issue for them and in the near future they have Derby at home which is a vital game. They have a tough run coming up against Arsenal , Chelsea , Tottenham and Man Utd and this may sound strange but they seem to play their best against these strong teams often frustrating them with their defensive style.
Its games such as tonight where Boro seem to lack the motivation for some reason and this is why they wont win at Villa Park. A european spot is very much the prize that Aston Villa are looking at and they should have the motivation and ability to take 3 easy points against Boro.
PICK
Aston Villa (1.63 @ paddy power) 6 points
Chelsea V Derby
If there was ever a right time to play the league whipping boys then the time is now for Chelsea. If the carling cup final defeat to Tottenham was a blow, an FA Cup exit to Barnsley was a complete disaster. There are many problems at Stamford Bridge and now the pressure is on Grant to deliver.
Chelsea have loads of attacking talent and the names roll off the tongue, a choice of Ballack, Essien, Wright-Phillips, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka, Drogba etc etc is the kind of arsenal that any team would wish to have.
Despite all the talk of the title being between Arsenal and Chelsea people must realise that Chelsea are only 3 points off Man Utd if they win here so its all to play for yet.
Derby on the other hand are heading for the championship and for them the quicker it comes the better. In more recent times they have at least battled a bit better but their away form does not lie. 0 wins, 11 defeats, 33 conceded in 14 games and failure to score in 10 of those games.
Chelsea at home are undefeated at home and have 9 clean sheets to their name. The need for an impressive display is at its greatest right now and if the players have any belief in Grant then they should take care of Derby with ease. In Derby’s 3 away games with the remaining of the “big 4” they conceded 15 goals. I don’t expect it to be anywhere as easy as that for Chelsea but they should still win.
Odds of 1.10 for the home win is only for the big hitters and there are various handicaps out there but the best value in my opinion is Chelsea to win both halves. For that bet to win, all Chelsea need to do is score in both halves, as I don’t see Derby scoring at all. The price of 1.91 at bet365 represents great value in my opinion and that’s my choice for this game.
Pick
Chelsea to win both halves (1.91 @ bet365) 5 points
I almost missed this game so this preview may be a little short. Two teams here in very contrasting form at the moment. Villa's last match was at the emirates where they went so close to beating Arsenal. They played some great stuff and even though im a gunner they probably deserved the 3 points. On a completely different note, Middlesborough didnt even turn up against Cardiff in the FA Cup semi on Sunday. They were outplayed and never got into the game. An area of weakness that cropped up very visably was their poor defence of set pieces and this is an area where i feel that the likes of Mellberg could well expose tonight.
Villa are pretty solid at home where they are undefeated since early December. Recent results include a 4 - 1 thumping of Newcastle and wins over Spurs and Reading.
Boro put up a good fight at Anfield a few weeks back before eventually losing out to a Torres hatrick. Relegation is still an issue for them and in the near future they have Derby at home which is a vital game. They have a tough run coming up against Arsenal , Chelsea , Tottenham and Man Utd and this may sound strange but they seem to play their best against these strong teams often frustrating them with their defensive style.
Its games such as tonight where Boro seem to lack the motivation for some reason and this is why they wont win at Villa Park. A european spot is very much the prize that Aston Villa are looking at and they should have the motivation and ability to take 3 easy points against Boro.
PICK
Aston Villa (1.63 @ paddy power) 6 points
Chelsea V Derby
If there was ever a right time to play the league whipping boys then the time is now for Chelsea. If the carling cup final defeat to Tottenham was a blow, an FA Cup exit to Barnsley was a complete disaster. There are many problems at Stamford Bridge and now the pressure is on Grant to deliver.
Chelsea have loads of attacking talent and the names roll off the tongue, a choice of Ballack, Essien, Wright-Phillips, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka, Drogba etc etc is the kind of arsenal that any team would wish to have.
Despite all the talk of the title being between Arsenal and Chelsea people must realise that Chelsea are only 3 points off Man Utd if they win here so its all to play for yet.
Derby on the other hand are heading for the championship and for them the quicker it comes the better. In more recent times they have at least battled a bit better but their away form does not lie. 0 wins, 11 defeats, 33 conceded in 14 games and failure to score in 10 of those games.
Chelsea at home are undefeated at home and have 9 clean sheets to their name. The need for an impressive display is at its greatest right now and if the players have any belief in Grant then they should take care of Derby with ease. In Derby’s 3 away games with the remaining of the “big 4” they conceded 15 goals. I don’t expect it to be anywhere as easy as that for Chelsea but they should still win.
Odds of 1.10 for the home win is only for the big hitters and there are various handicaps out there but the best value in my opinion is Chelsea to win both halves. For that bet to win, all Chelsea need to do is score in both halves, as I don’t see Derby scoring at all. The price of 1.91 at bet365 represents great value in my opinion and that’s my choice for this game.
Pick
Chelsea to win both halves (1.91 @ bet365) 5 points
Monday, March 10, 2008
More Tuesday night football
Theres a full bill of games to chose from tonight and plenty of good value out there.
Looking through the championship and theres actually nothing that interests me. So I shall skip straight to the first division where there are a few mismatches.
Carlisle V Luton
There is a serious gulf in quality between these two sides.
Carlisle are fighting it out with Doncaster for 2nd place and with Doncaster having a seemingly easy tie at home to Gillingham, 3 points here is crucial. Carlisle have a home record to be proud of, 14 wins from 16 games shows just how dominant they are at home. That’s 12 wins on the trot now and surely a record for them. Teams for some reason just don’t like to go there and Carlisle have kept 9 clean sheets at home.
Luton on the other hand seem resigned to relegation. 11 points from safety and they have lost 5 on the bounce away from home failing to score in the last three. At home it is not much better where they have failed to win since New years day. It’s hard to imagine that two years ago to the very day that they were comfortably mid table in the championship. How they have fallen.
Verdict
Im not going to go into this one too much more. Team with a tremendous home record averaging 2 goals a game at home against a doomed side with a bare squad who have failed to score in the last 3 away. Carlisle cannot afford to slip up here and should win comfortably.
PICK
Carlisle –1.25 ( 2.05 @ mansion) 6 points
Doncaster V Gillingham
Another seemingly one-sided affair. Doncaster must view this game as a must win because they know that Carlisle will win also tonight. Apart from that slip up to Swansea a few weeks back, Doncaster’s home form has been very good in recent times. 6 wins from the last 7 and 4 clean sheets in that period. Their overall play has been good with plenty of wins but being 8 points behind the league leaders with a game more played look like they will have to be content with aiming for second spot.
It would be hard to make a case for backing the visitors so il let the numbers do the talking, 14 defeats on their travels and 43 goals shipped in 18 away games. They tend to do their best work at home and 6 successive defeats on the road wont do much for their confidence. Neither will the fact that they have conceded 12 in the last 3 away games. They really are in terrible form away from home and going to Doncaster is not the place to try and get things back on track. A relegation battle is looming
Verdict
A win is crucial for the home side and if they play to their potential should get it without breaking too much of a sweat.
PICK
Doncaster –1asian hdcp (1.78 @ mansion) 6 points
Crewe V Port Vale
The reason this one jumps out at me is because of Vale's poor away form. Sure this is a local derby and anything can happen but take Port Vale out of their home patch and what do you find? 8 successive defeats, 15 games since a clean sheet and almost 2 goals conceded per game, the 2nd worst defensive record in the league away and the worst overall. 16 goals conceded in the last 6 away games.
Crewe may be in no great position either but to give them some credit their last three home games have been against Nottingham Forest, Carlisle and Swansea, that’s 3 of the top 4 right there and they managed to draw with 2 of them. That’s a tough run of games for any side and they have came out of it with immense credit.
This game is very important to both sides but realistically Port Vale are 15 points off having a fighting chance of survival and are beyond staying up. Crewe are not safe yet but have a bit more form coming into this one and if they can play the way they have in the last few games can take a vital 3 points. Not full stakes though as this is a local derby.
PICK
Crewe –0.5 ( 2.01 @ mansion) 4 points
Looking through the championship and theres actually nothing that interests me. So I shall skip straight to the first division where there are a few mismatches.
Carlisle V Luton
There is a serious gulf in quality between these two sides.
Carlisle are fighting it out with Doncaster for 2nd place and with Doncaster having a seemingly easy tie at home to Gillingham, 3 points here is crucial. Carlisle have a home record to be proud of, 14 wins from 16 games shows just how dominant they are at home. That’s 12 wins on the trot now and surely a record for them. Teams for some reason just don’t like to go there and Carlisle have kept 9 clean sheets at home.
Luton on the other hand seem resigned to relegation. 11 points from safety and they have lost 5 on the bounce away from home failing to score in the last three. At home it is not much better where they have failed to win since New years day. It’s hard to imagine that two years ago to the very day that they were comfortably mid table in the championship. How they have fallen.
Verdict
Im not going to go into this one too much more. Team with a tremendous home record averaging 2 goals a game at home against a doomed side with a bare squad who have failed to score in the last 3 away. Carlisle cannot afford to slip up here and should win comfortably.
PICK
Carlisle –1.25 ( 2.05 @ mansion) 6 points
Doncaster V Gillingham
Another seemingly one-sided affair. Doncaster must view this game as a must win because they know that Carlisle will win also tonight. Apart from that slip up to Swansea a few weeks back, Doncaster’s home form has been very good in recent times. 6 wins from the last 7 and 4 clean sheets in that period. Their overall play has been good with plenty of wins but being 8 points behind the league leaders with a game more played look like they will have to be content with aiming for second spot.
It would be hard to make a case for backing the visitors so il let the numbers do the talking, 14 defeats on their travels and 43 goals shipped in 18 away games. They tend to do their best work at home and 6 successive defeats on the road wont do much for their confidence. Neither will the fact that they have conceded 12 in the last 3 away games. They really are in terrible form away from home and going to Doncaster is not the place to try and get things back on track. A relegation battle is looming
Verdict
A win is crucial for the home side and if they play to their potential should get it without breaking too much of a sweat.
PICK
Doncaster –1asian hdcp (1.78 @ mansion) 6 points
Crewe V Port Vale
The reason this one jumps out at me is because of Vale's poor away form. Sure this is a local derby and anything can happen but take Port Vale out of their home patch and what do you find? 8 successive defeats, 15 games since a clean sheet and almost 2 goals conceded per game, the 2nd worst defensive record in the league away and the worst overall. 16 goals conceded in the last 6 away games.
Crewe may be in no great position either but to give them some credit their last three home games have been against Nottingham Forest, Carlisle and Swansea, that’s 3 of the top 4 right there and they managed to draw with 2 of them. That’s a tough run of games for any side and they have came out of it with immense credit.
This game is very important to both sides but realistically Port Vale are 15 points off having a fighting chance of survival and are beyond staying up. Crewe are not safe yet but have a bit more form coming into this one and if they can play the way they have in the last few games can take a vital 3 points. Not full stakes though as this is a local derby.
PICK
Crewe –0.5 ( 2.01 @ mansion) 4 points
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Inter V Liverpool
Im back! Got some winners together eventually after a poor run and i had a great weekend. Hopefully things will continue to move in the right direction and i have this one up a little early.
Inter Milan V Liverpool
Liverpool are 2 – 0 up from the first leg so what way do they approach this game? If I were Rafa I would have my team going out to play as normal and try to score a goal. That crucial away goal will send them through because if they score once then Inter will have to score at least 4 to progress and that ain’t going to happen.
Liverpool are coming into this one with high confidence after their season has gone from strength to strength. The battle to get 4th place between them and Everton is very much alive and it will be interesting to see who gets it because both are playing very well. Anyway back to the champions league. Liverpool rode their luck a little in the first leg, Materazzi was booked twice, a little harshly in my view and Liverpool didn’t really look like scoring until two late goals sealed the deal.
Inter on the other hand looked stale and didn’t really create much of note. With 10 men from an early stage it always was a mountain to climb and at 1 – 0 they would have fancied their chances but at 2 – 0 it going to be very tough.
Liverpool cant afford to sit back and defend because if they happen to go 1 – 0 down then they will be treading very dangerously. Inter cant commit to throwing everything forward either though as if they concede 1 goal then they are most probably out.
I’m not too convinced by Liverpool’s defence, lets not forget they have conceded goals to lowly Derby, Bolton, Middlesborough and a poor Reading on the road. Inter scored 9 in the San Siro in the group stages in three games and have scored in every single home game in the Seria A this year averaging just over 2 a game so I can definitely see them scoring at some stage.
Heres how I see this one panning out, a tight cagey affair for the first 45 or so minutes. Eventually Inter will have to go for goal which they will most likely get. I can see it getting a bit desperate and there will be gaps at the back. As Liverpool demonstrated against Newcastle they are well able to score on the counter attack and I can see it happening again. Torres is simply unstoppable at the moment and he and Gerrard are working well together. My pick? Both sides to score pays out at 2 @ bet365 and ive taken it a little early as I don’t see it staying that high. 1.85 - 1.9 or so would be more along the right line.
Final score will be something like 1 – 1 or 2 – 1 to Inter I feel.
PICK
Inter V Liverpool – both sides to score ( 2 @ bet365) 5 points
Inter Milan V Liverpool
Liverpool are 2 – 0 up from the first leg so what way do they approach this game? If I were Rafa I would have my team going out to play as normal and try to score a goal. That crucial away goal will send them through because if they score once then Inter will have to score at least 4 to progress and that ain’t going to happen.
Liverpool are coming into this one with high confidence after their season has gone from strength to strength. The battle to get 4th place between them and Everton is very much alive and it will be interesting to see who gets it because both are playing very well. Anyway back to the champions league. Liverpool rode their luck a little in the first leg, Materazzi was booked twice, a little harshly in my view and Liverpool didn’t really look like scoring until two late goals sealed the deal.
Inter on the other hand looked stale and didn’t really create much of note. With 10 men from an early stage it always was a mountain to climb and at 1 – 0 they would have fancied their chances but at 2 – 0 it going to be very tough.
Liverpool cant afford to sit back and defend because if they happen to go 1 – 0 down then they will be treading very dangerously. Inter cant commit to throwing everything forward either though as if they concede 1 goal then they are most probably out.
I’m not too convinced by Liverpool’s defence, lets not forget they have conceded goals to lowly Derby, Bolton, Middlesborough and a poor Reading on the road. Inter scored 9 in the San Siro in the group stages in three games and have scored in every single home game in the Seria A this year averaging just over 2 a game so I can definitely see them scoring at some stage.
Heres how I see this one panning out, a tight cagey affair for the first 45 or so minutes. Eventually Inter will have to go for goal which they will most likely get. I can see it getting a bit desperate and there will be gaps at the back. As Liverpool demonstrated against Newcastle they are well able to score on the counter attack and I can see it happening again. Torres is simply unstoppable at the moment and he and Gerrard are working well together. My pick? Both sides to score pays out at 2 @ bet365 and ive taken it a little early as I don’t see it staying that high. 1.85 - 1.9 or so would be more along the right line.
Final score will be something like 1 – 1 or 2 – 1 to Inter I feel.
PICK
Inter V Liverpool – both sides to score ( 2 @ bet365) 5 points
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Sunday Fa Cup
Some decent winners today. Some days there are strange results. I just watched the Chelsea game and cant believe that Barnsley beat them , deservingly i know but an amazing result all the same, and Manchester United!!! I was lucky enough to get a few quid on Pompey at 15 in running but that was down to luck more than anything else.
Anyway i hope that all the upsets are not over yet...
Middlesborough V Cardiff
Based on league form it would be safe to jump to the conclusion that Boro have the upper hand. Mid table in the premiership but still not quite safe from relegation.
Boro have taken 4 wins from a possible 14 at the Riverside this season and were unlucky not to take something from Liverpool last week at Anfield losing 3 – 2. Their main problem is creativity and although Downing is playing quite well, they tend to rely heavily on his delivery from set pieces to create any clear cut scoring chances.
Cardiff are on the back of a poor run in which they have failed to win any of the last 6 league games. However they have blossomed in the FA Cup and it might be fair to say that they seem to have one eye on the cup games. Despite the recent poor results they have not been playing all that badly and I really fancy them to get a result here.
A chance to play at Wembley for the semi final is a huge incentive for any team and this is the furthest Cardiff have been in the FA Cup since they became the only Welsh side to lift the trophy way back in 1927. Now they are a mere 90 minutes away from a big day out and at this stage of the competition with Arsenal and Manchster United out, anything is possible. Winning this game for Cardiff would be no more surprising than Coventry’s victory at Blackburn in the third round, Sheffield United’s success over Manchester City in the fourth round or indeed Barnsley’s shock win at Liverpool in the fifth round. Bear in mind that Cardiff are as good if not better than any of those championship sides and Middlesborough are arguably as poor as any of the premiership teams left in the cup.
Verdict
With only 4 wins at home this year Boro are far from a great home side. Cardiff have only been beaten 5 times on the road from 18 and you can expect them to be well up for this clash. I feel that this means a bit more to Cardiff and theres not a big difference between the sides in terms of ability. Given that this is a cup tie anything can happen so im siding with the visitors. They are best priced at 6 but il take them draw no bet as they have a tendency to draw away from home.
PICK
Cardiff draw no bet (4.2 @ boylesports) 3 points
Bristol Rovers V West Brom
Im approaching this one a little cautiously, as there has been so many shocks this weekend in the fa cup.
Theres a difference in class here as Bristol rovers are just hovering above the drop zone in Division one albeit with a few games in hand. The Baggies on the other hand are pushing for a place in the top flight and whether it’s automatic or via the play-offs I think they will get there.
Bristol’s results have improved over the last few weeks but a 1 – 0 defeat midweek to Doncaster highlighted their lack of creativity and firepower up front. They have based their gameplan around a good defence but it will be hard to see them keeping out a West Brom side who have amassed an amazing 71 goals in 35 league games, about two goals a game.
Verdict
West Brom have already gone to tough venues like Coventry and Peterborough in the FA Cup and won with ease. A journey to lower league opposition who struggle to score should not be too tough for them. Obviously a semi-final place is a huge incentive for both sides and with no major opposition left in the cup the Baggies will quietly fancy their chances of going all the way. West Brom to win this one for me.
PICK
West Brom -0.25 ( 1.8 @ stan james) 6 points
Anyway i hope that all the upsets are not over yet...
Middlesborough V Cardiff
Based on league form it would be safe to jump to the conclusion that Boro have the upper hand. Mid table in the premiership but still not quite safe from relegation.
Boro have taken 4 wins from a possible 14 at the Riverside this season and were unlucky not to take something from Liverpool last week at Anfield losing 3 – 2. Their main problem is creativity and although Downing is playing quite well, they tend to rely heavily on his delivery from set pieces to create any clear cut scoring chances.
Cardiff are on the back of a poor run in which they have failed to win any of the last 6 league games. However they have blossomed in the FA Cup and it might be fair to say that they seem to have one eye on the cup games. Despite the recent poor results they have not been playing all that badly and I really fancy them to get a result here.
A chance to play at Wembley for the semi final is a huge incentive for any team and this is the furthest Cardiff have been in the FA Cup since they became the only Welsh side to lift the trophy way back in 1927. Now they are a mere 90 minutes away from a big day out and at this stage of the competition with Arsenal and Manchster United out, anything is possible. Winning this game for Cardiff would be no more surprising than Coventry’s victory at Blackburn in the third round, Sheffield United’s success over Manchester City in the fourth round or indeed Barnsley’s shock win at Liverpool in the fifth round. Bear in mind that Cardiff are as good if not better than any of those championship sides and Middlesborough are arguably as poor as any of the premiership teams left in the cup.
Verdict
With only 4 wins at home this year Boro are far from a great home side. Cardiff have only been beaten 5 times on the road from 18 and you can expect them to be well up for this clash. I feel that this means a bit more to Cardiff and theres not a big difference between the sides in terms of ability. Given that this is a cup tie anything can happen so im siding with the visitors. They are best priced at 6 but il take them draw no bet as they have a tendency to draw away from home.
PICK
Cardiff draw no bet (4.2 @ boylesports) 3 points
Bristol Rovers V West Brom
Im approaching this one a little cautiously, as there has been so many shocks this weekend in the fa cup.
Theres a difference in class here as Bristol rovers are just hovering above the drop zone in Division one albeit with a few games in hand. The Baggies on the other hand are pushing for a place in the top flight and whether it’s automatic or via the play-offs I think they will get there.
Bristol’s results have improved over the last few weeks but a 1 – 0 defeat midweek to Doncaster highlighted their lack of creativity and firepower up front. They have based their gameplan around a good defence but it will be hard to see them keeping out a West Brom side who have amassed an amazing 71 goals in 35 league games, about two goals a game.
Verdict
West Brom have already gone to tough venues like Coventry and Peterborough in the FA Cup and won with ease. A journey to lower league opposition who struggle to score should not be too tough for them. Obviously a semi-final place is a huge incentive for both sides and with no major opposition left in the cup the Baggies will quietly fancy their chances of going all the way. West Brom to win this one for me.
PICK
West Brom -0.25 ( 1.8 @ stan james) 6 points
Saturdays football
Im having some serious pc problems today so i havehad to borrow a laptop from a friend which im not used to and can hardly use. Unfortunayely there will be no previews today only the picks that make the grade. Hopefully il have things up and running again shortly.
Coventry (2.5 @totesport) 3 points`
Hull (1.8 @bet365) 6 points
Stoke (1.95 @bet365) 5 points
Carlisle (1.8 @bet365) 6 points
Coventry (2.5 @totesport) 3 points`
Hull (1.8 @bet365) 6 points
Stoke (1.95 @bet365) 5 points
Carlisle (1.8 @bet365) 6 points
Six ntions on saturday
Ireland V Wales
A vital game here which could yet decide just where the title goes. With one defeat already Ireland badly need to win here. Warren Gatland has had a huge influence on Wales and wins over England, Scotland and Italy have left them in a good position. However outside of that win over England i don't feel that they have been tested for the full 80 minutes yet and this could backfire on them today.
Ireland have a few positional problems with Dempsey and Murphy out as Kearney moves to full back. He may be young but is an exciting talent so his selection should not worry potential backers. Ulster's Tommy Bowe switches flanks to take Kearney's place on the left, Shane Horgan is promoted from the bench at 14.
Jones has retained his place over Hook after an impressive game in the victory over Italy - but he will have a new half-back partner. Mike Phillips has been chosen over Dwayne Peel at scrum-half as one of four changes made by Gatland. Jones returning to the second row in place of Evans after recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the win over England. Bennett returns at hooker while prop Adam Jones regains the tight-head role from Rhys Thomas.
Verdict
Ireland have had more problems in recent times than Wales but should be fired up for this one. As i mentioned before anything but a win for the Irish and their dreams are over for another year. The confidence has been restored after a decent 2nd half display against the French and a resounding win over Scotland. I do not expect the Welsh to give in as easy as the Scots or not to make as many mistakes as them either but i do expect them to get a tougher challenge than they have had to this point. I like to watch Wales play as they can create from nothing but i think the Irish have learned from the defeat to France and will be looking out for the wide expansive play and especially the threat of Shane Williams. Home advantage and Ronan O Gara's kicking should see them through by 5 - 7 points.
PICK
Ireland -3 points (2 @ bet365) 4 points
Scotland V England
Another very interesting game.
How will England react to the win over France? Im prepared to think they may be a little over confident going into this one. Here's the story of the last two game, England were magnificent against France. Scotland were rotten against Ireland. There can only be one winner right? Im not so sure, lets face it, as good as England were against France, i couldn't believe that the French continued to run the ball as it wasn't working. Time after time they ran when kicking for touch would have made more sense. Also the fact that the French had no out and out kicker meant they missed some vital frees. England sat back, played basic rugby and lapped up all the pressure for a deserved win.
Scotland on the other hand were cruel to watch against Ireland, too many basic handling errors cost them and by the end of the game they looked like they wanted to be far far away from Croke park. Do not under any circumstances expect them to give up so easy today. Playing England at Murrayfield always brings out the best in the Scots id be expecting a much more committed display today. Scotland have recalled number eight Simon Taylor for Saturday's game but there is no room for Scott Murray in Hadden's squad.
Ian Balshaw is back in the England side in place of Danny Cipriani who was dropped from the panel after some late night action on Thursday night at a night club ended his starting place.
Verdict
The 5 on Scotland is too big. This is a game that England wont have easy. They could either trounce Scotland or else as i suspect have a very difficult afternoon ahead of them. In my opinion i think that Scotland will show us today that they can play and that they are no pushovers making the English work hard for every point. Kicking will be crucial and it may come down to a battle between Wilkonson and Patterson. Im not at all convinced by Balshaw and think that he may be in for a rough afternoon if targeted by the Scots. Very tight game in store where i think taking Scotland with a 9 point start may be the way to go.
PICK
Scotland + 9 ( 2 @ bet365) 4 points
A vital game here which could yet decide just where the title goes. With one defeat already Ireland badly need to win here. Warren Gatland has had a huge influence on Wales and wins over England, Scotland and Italy have left them in a good position. However outside of that win over England i don't feel that they have been tested for the full 80 minutes yet and this could backfire on them today.
Ireland have a few positional problems with Dempsey and Murphy out as Kearney moves to full back. He may be young but is an exciting talent so his selection should not worry potential backers. Ulster's Tommy Bowe switches flanks to take Kearney's place on the left, Shane Horgan is promoted from the bench at 14.
Jones has retained his place over Hook after an impressive game in the victory over Italy - but he will have a new half-back partner. Mike Phillips has been chosen over Dwayne Peel at scrum-half as one of four changes made by Gatland. Jones returning to the second row in place of Evans after recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the win over England. Bennett returns at hooker while prop Adam Jones regains the tight-head role from Rhys Thomas.
Verdict
Ireland have had more problems in recent times than Wales but should be fired up for this one. As i mentioned before anything but a win for the Irish and their dreams are over for another year. The confidence has been restored after a decent 2nd half display against the French and a resounding win over Scotland. I do not expect the Welsh to give in as easy as the Scots or not to make as many mistakes as them either but i do expect them to get a tougher challenge than they have had to this point. I like to watch Wales play as they can create from nothing but i think the Irish have learned from the defeat to France and will be looking out for the wide expansive play and especially the threat of Shane Williams. Home advantage and Ronan O Gara's kicking should see them through by 5 - 7 points.
PICK
Ireland -3 points (2 @ bet365) 4 points
Scotland V England
Another very interesting game.
How will England react to the win over France? Im prepared to think they may be a little over confident going into this one. Here's the story of the last two game, England were magnificent against France. Scotland were rotten against Ireland. There can only be one winner right? Im not so sure, lets face it, as good as England were against France, i couldn't believe that the French continued to run the ball as it wasn't working. Time after time they ran when kicking for touch would have made more sense. Also the fact that the French had no out and out kicker meant they missed some vital frees. England sat back, played basic rugby and lapped up all the pressure for a deserved win.
Scotland on the other hand were cruel to watch against Ireland, too many basic handling errors cost them and by the end of the game they looked like they wanted to be far far away from Croke park. Do not under any circumstances expect them to give up so easy today. Playing England at Murrayfield always brings out the best in the Scots id be expecting a much more committed display today. Scotland have recalled number eight Simon Taylor for Saturday's game but there is no room for Scott Murray in Hadden's squad.
Ian Balshaw is back in the England side in place of Danny Cipriani who was dropped from the panel after some late night action on Thursday night at a night club ended his starting place.
Verdict
The 5 on Scotland is too big. This is a game that England wont have easy. They could either trounce Scotland or else as i suspect have a very difficult afternoon ahead of them. In my opinion i think that Scotland will show us today that they can play and that they are no pushovers making the English work hard for every point. Kicking will be crucial and it may come down to a battle between Wilkonson and Patterson. Im not at all convinced by Balshaw and think that he may be in for a rough afternoon if targeted by the Scots. Very tight game in store where i think taking Scotland with a 9 point start may be the way to go.
PICK
Scotland + 9 ( 2 @ bet365) 4 points
Friday, March 7, 2008
Weekend preview
Ive got a lot to post over the next two days. Lots of football on offer and some rugby also. My rugby punting has been poorly this year so far but im fairly confident i can turn it around tomorrow. Ive a busy time of typing ahead of me so check back. At worst i shall have most of the stuff posted up early tomorrow morning, before 11 am or so.
To tonights games i decided to leave them alone. The Eircom Irish league is starting up again so we shall let that run for a few rounds before committing to any bets there. Swansea are playing Millwall tonight and will probably win but theres a few side issues in that one so its best left alone.
As i stated earlier the blog numbers are badly in need of an updating but my schedule is crammed at the moment.
Anyhow, check back later if you wish to view the weekends picks.
To tonights games i decided to leave them alone. The Eircom Irish league is starting up again so we shall let that run for a few rounds before committing to any bets there. Swansea are playing Millwall tonight and will probably win but theres a few side issues in that one so its best left alone.
As i stated earlier the blog numbers are badly in need of an updating but my schedule is crammed at the moment.
Anyhow, check back later if you wish to view the weekends picks.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Uefa cup this thursday
Rangers V Werder Bremen
Important clash for both sides here tonight in what will be a very cagey affair in my view. Rangers have scored more goals away from Ibrox in Europe this season and go into this game having not scored in their last three European games at home, against Barcelona, Lyon and Panathinaikos.
Rangers are in goo form at the moment and are currently on an nineteen game unbeaten run in all competitions since their Champions League defeat at Ibrox to Lyon in January.
Rangers results on the road have been a bit more impressive which leads me to believe that keeping a clean sheet tonight will be a priority for them. Away goals are crucial and if they can achieve a 0 - 0 tonight then they will quietly fancy their chances in the next leg.
Werder Bremen are currently the main challengers to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and the favourites to progress to the next round. In Diego they have one of the best playmakers around and Rangers will need to keep a close eye on him. They seem to keep their best performances for their home games and have struggled to score on the road at times with just two goals away from home in the group stages of the Champions League and a slender 1-0 victory over Braga in the last 32 of the UEFA Cup.
Verdict
I cant see too many goals in this one. rangers will be happy to prevent Werder from scoring the crucial away goal and so should defend accordingly. Werder on the other hand will seek out that away goal but will still not want to concede either as this may leave a mountain to climb for the return leg. Over the two legs i think Bremen will do enough to progress but tonight i think 0 - 0 scoreline is a good looking selection as is under 2.5 goals
PICK
Rangers/Bremen under 2.5 goals (1.86 @ canbet) 5 points
Rangers/Bremen 0 - 0 correct score (10 @ sportingbet) 1 point
Bolton V Sporting Lisbon
Tough fixture for Bolton here. il cut to the chase, Bolton knocked Athletico Madrid out in the last round but i was not at all convinced by their efforts. Tonight El-Hadji Diouf is suspended and Nolan is a big doubt so its very hard to see them scoring at all. They have drawn two blanks in their last three at home so thats more evidence of their lack of firepower.
Sporting are not a bad outfit and could go far in this tournament. They are fighting for third place in the Portuguese League behind Porto and Benfica. If you compare the two sides its fair to say that Sporting have much more experience in the line of European football and this should stand to them. Im not going to go any further into this one. Not one of the Uefa Cup matches Bolton have played in this season have given us more than two goals. In fact they have never scored more than two goals in any of their 16 Uefa Cup games over two separate campaigns so unders looks safe. However the bookies have twigged onto this and unders is as low as 1.45 in places
Verdict
I cant see Bolton scoring and its going to take a big effort to keep Sporting out for 90 minutes. With away goals critical i think if Sporting can get 1 - 0 then they will hold onto that lead as it may be enough to see them through in the next leg. As i mentioned before unders is priced too low for my liking so 1 - 0 correct score to the away side may be a better investment.
Bolton/Sporting Lisbon- Lisbon 1 - 0 correct score (8.5 @ expect) 1 point
Important clash for both sides here tonight in what will be a very cagey affair in my view. Rangers have scored more goals away from Ibrox in Europe this season and go into this game having not scored in their last three European games at home, against Barcelona, Lyon and Panathinaikos.
Rangers are in goo form at the moment and are currently on an nineteen game unbeaten run in all competitions since their Champions League defeat at Ibrox to Lyon in January.
Rangers results on the road have been a bit more impressive which leads me to believe that keeping a clean sheet tonight will be a priority for them. Away goals are crucial and if they can achieve a 0 - 0 tonight then they will quietly fancy their chances in the next leg.
Werder Bremen are currently the main challengers to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and the favourites to progress to the next round. In Diego they have one of the best playmakers around and Rangers will need to keep a close eye on him. They seem to keep their best performances for their home games and have struggled to score on the road at times with just two goals away from home in the group stages of the Champions League and a slender 1-0 victory over Braga in the last 32 of the UEFA Cup.
Verdict
I cant see too many goals in this one. rangers will be happy to prevent Werder from scoring the crucial away goal and so should defend accordingly. Werder on the other hand will seek out that away goal but will still not want to concede either as this may leave a mountain to climb for the return leg. Over the two legs i think Bremen will do enough to progress but tonight i think 0 - 0 scoreline is a good looking selection as is under 2.5 goals
PICK
Rangers/Bremen under 2.5 goals (1.86 @ canbet) 5 points
Rangers/Bremen 0 - 0 correct score (10 @ sportingbet) 1 point
Bolton V Sporting Lisbon
Tough fixture for Bolton here. il cut to the chase, Bolton knocked Athletico Madrid out in the last round but i was not at all convinced by their efforts. Tonight El-Hadji Diouf is suspended and Nolan is a big doubt so its very hard to see them scoring at all. They have drawn two blanks in their last three at home so thats more evidence of their lack of firepower.
Sporting are not a bad outfit and could go far in this tournament. They are fighting for third place in the Portuguese League behind Porto and Benfica. If you compare the two sides its fair to say that Sporting have much more experience in the line of European football and this should stand to them. Im not going to go any further into this one. Not one of the Uefa Cup matches Bolton have played in this season have given us more than two goals. In fact they have never scored more than two goals in any of their 16 Uefa Cup games over two separate campaigns so unders looks safe. However the bookies have twigged onto this and unders is as low as 1.45 in places
Verdict
I cant see Bolton scoring and its going to take a big effort to keep Sporting out for 90 minutes. With away goals critical i think if Sporting can get 1 - 0 then they will hold onto that lead as it may be enough to see them through in the next leg. As i mentioned before unders is priced too low for my liking so 1 - 0 correct score to the away side may be a better investment.
Bolton/Sporting Lisbon- Lisbon 1 - 0 correct score (8.5 @ expect) 1 point
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Wednesday night action
Porto V Shalke
I really like the look of the home side here. Porto played rather poorly in the first leg but were still only beaten 1 – 0. At home they are a different prospect and have won 10 from 11 this season scoring 24 and only conceding 1. In the group stages they beat both Marseille and Besiktas and drew with Liverpool. Overall, the Portuguese giants have only ever lost one Champions League game at the Estadio do Dragão.
Probable starting XI: Helton - Bosingwa, Bruno Alves, Pedro Emanuel, Fucile - Lucho Gonzalez, Paulo Assuncao, Raul Meireles - Lisandro Lopez, Farias, Ricardo Quaresma
Shalke know exactly what is needed to progress. Holding a 1 – 0 first leg win means that if they score one goal then Porto need at least 3 to go through. They’re away record in Europe surprised many this season with a 2 - 0 win at Rosenborg, before securing an impressive 0 - 0 draw at the Mestala against Valencia.
Despite being beaten by Chelsea at Stanford bridge they played quite well and possibly looked like they lacked the self-belief to take the game to Chelsea as they should have.
Probable starting XI: Neuer - Rafinha, Bordon, Krstajic, Westermann - Jones, Ernst - , Kobiashvili, Rakitic, Streit – Kuranyi
Verdict
Porto at home are a tough nut to crack and can mix it with the best when they play to their capabilities. Realistically this could go either way but the bottom line is that Porto have to win. If Shalke happen to score then I still don’t believe all will be lost for the home side as they are a team capable of scoring out of nothing. I think Porto have enough not only to win here but to progress to the next stage too.
PICK
Porto win (1.75 @ totesport) 5 points
Porto to qualify (2.38 @ paddy power) 3 points
Chelsea V Olympiakos
Chelsea look to be good things here. Greek sides traditionally struggle away from home and playing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is a big ask. Add in that Chelsea are finally coming to form and confidence is high after that 4 – 0 drubbing of West Ham at the weekend.
Chelsea don’t tend to give teams big beatings but here they may have to. An away goal may wreck their chances and holding a 1 – 0 lead may be dodgy. This leads me to believe that they will go out and try to get at least 2 goals or 3 just in case their usually dependable defence will be breached.
Olympiakos are in poor condition at the moment. 4 points off the top of the league and their away form is not as impressive as it has been in the past. They are struggling to create any real chances of note and to break down the Chelsea rearguard they will need to create something special.
Verdict
I just can’t see Chelsea conceding tonight and cannot see past a comfortable win. As I mentioned before a 1 – 0 lead is dodgy and they will strive to kill off this game as early as possible. I think Chelsea will be there or thereabouts come final time and can win comfortably tonight.
PICK
Chelsea –1.5 ( 1.83 @ stanjames) 6 points
I really like the look of the home side here. Porto played rather poorly in the first leg but were still only beaten 1 – 0. At home they are a different prospect and have won 10 from 11 this season scoring 24 and only conceding 1. In the group stages they beat both Marseille and Besiktas and drew with Liverpool. Overall, the Portuguese giants have only ever lost one Champions League game at the Estadio do Dragão.
Probable starting XI: Helton - Bosingwa, Bruno Alves, Pedro Emanuel, Fucile - Lucho Gonzalez, Paulo Assuncao, Raul Meireles - Lisandro Lopez, Farias, Ricardo Quaresma
Shalke know exactly what is needed to progress. Holding a 1 – 0 first leg win means that if they score one goal then Porto need at least 3 to go through. They’re away record in Europe surprised many this season with a 2 - 0 win at Rosenborg, before securing an impressive 0 - 0 draw at the Mestala against Valencia.
Despite being beaten by Chelsea at Stanford bridge they played quite well and possibly looked like they lacked the self-belief to take the game to Chelsea as they should have.
Probable starting XI: Neuer - Rafinha, Bordon, Krstajic, Westermann - Jones, Ernst - , Kobiashvili, Rakitic, Streit – Kuranyi
Verdict
Porto at home are a tough nut to crack and can mix it with the best when they play to their capabilities. Realistically this could go either way but the bottom line is that Porto have to win. If Shalke happen to score then I still don’t believe all will be lost for the home side as they are a team capable of scoring out of nothing. I think Porto have enough not only to win here but to progress to the next stage too.
PICK
Porto win (1.75 @ totesport) 5 points
Porto to qualify (2.38 @ paddy power) 3 points
Chelsea V Olympiakos
Chelsea look to be good things here. Greek sides traditionally struggle away from home and playing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is a big ask. Add in that Chelsea are finally coming to form and confidence is high after that 4 – 0 drubbing of West Ham at the weekend.
Chelsea don’t tend to give teams big beatings but here they may have to. An away goal may wreck their chances and holding a 1 – 0 lead may be dodgy. This leads me to believe that they will go out and try to get at least 2 goals or 3 just in case their usually dependable defence will be breached.
Olympiakos are in poor condition at the moment. 4 points off the top of the league and their away form is not as impressive as it has been in the past. They are struggling to create any real chances of note and to break down the Chelsea rearguard they will need to create something special.
Verdict
I just can’t see Chelsea conceding tonight and cannot see past a comfortable win. As I mentioned before a 1 – 0 lead is dodgy and they will strive to kill off this game as early as possible. I think Chelsea will be there or thereabouts come final time and can win comfortably tonight.
PICK
Chelsea –1.5 ( 1.83 @ stanjames) 6 points
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Tuesday night action
Im skipping on the champions league tonight. Going to watch and pray for an Arsenal win though.
Plymouth V Colchester United
Plymouth were well beaten at the weekend but I firmly believe they are one of the better sides in the championship. Playoff places are still within their grasp and with their decent record at home I think they can take three points here and get back on track.
With just one defeat in the last 8 home games they are a decent home side and have a good record.
Colchester are going to have to seriously turn things around to stay in the league this year. With just one win in 2008 Colchester are not in the best of shape and their squad is being stretched at the moment.
Im not going to go into this one in too much detail. Plymouth are a step above Colchester and after a poor result at the weekend will be looking to get back on track. A home tie against the bottom side should do the trick
PICK
Plymouth (1.8 @ pinnacle) 6 points
Oldham V Hartlepool
Considering the form that Oldham are in, I find the odds quite strange and had to check if I was missing something. Evens for a good side who have proved they can play to a high standard, against Hartlepool, a side with only two draws in the last 11 away games? Oldham are still in with a shot at the playoff places and need three points tonight. Since the turn of the year they have yet to lose at home and have recorded notable wins over form sides like Carlisle .
Hartlepool have conceded 3o goals on the road this season and havent kept a clean sheet since early November.
Oldham have 9 goals in the last 4 home games and all in all have improved their recent performances at home.
I cant see anything but a solid home win here and I cant skip on the price
Pick
Oldham -0.5 (2 @ canbet) 4 points
Plymouth V Colchester United
Plymouth were well beaten at the weekend but I firmly believe they are one of the better sides in the championship. Playoff places are still within their grasp and with their decent record at home I think they can take three points here and get back on track.
With just one defeat in the last 8 home games they are a decent home side and have a good record.
Colchester are going to have to seriously turn things around to stay in the league this year. With just one win in 2008 Colchester are not in the best of shape and their squad is being stretched at the moment.
Im not going to go into this one in too much detail. Plymouth are a step above Colchester and after a poor result at the weekend will be looking to get back on track. A home tie against the bottom side should do the trick
PICK
Plymouth (1.8 @ pinnacle) 6 points
Oldham V Hartlepool
Considering the form that Oldham are in, I find the odds quite strange and had to check if I was missing something. Evens for a good side who have proved they can play to a high standard, against Hartlepool, a side with only two draws in the last 11 away games? Oldham are still in with a shot at the playoff places and need three points tonight. Since the turn of the year they have yet to lose at home and have recorded notable wins over form sides like Carlisle .
Hartlepool have conceded 3o goals on the road this season and havent kept a clean sheet since early November.
Oldham have 9 goals in the last 4 home games and all in all have improved their recent performances at home.
I cant see anything but a solid home win here and I cant skip on the price
Pick
Oldham -0.5 (2 @ canbet) 4 points
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Monday night
Nottingham Forest V Carlisle
A very interesting tie is in store at The City Ground on Monday evening. Both sides are fighting it out for second spot in division one behind Swansea. Nottingham Forest sit in 4th place just 2 points behind their opponents. Home form this season has been good with 10 wins from 16. They are unbeaten in their last six home games, winning five of them, and drawing the other one. Their success has revolved around a mean defence, which has kept 4 successive clean sheets at home and 11 in total. 19 clean sheets is their overall record and Carlisle are going to have to be very creative up front to get any rewards here.
Manager Colin Calderwood has no fresh injury worries though Will Hoskins and Nathan Tyson are long term absentees.
Nottingham forest last 5 home games
Nott'm Forest 2 1 Huddersfield 01/01/2008
Nott'm Forest 4 0 Leyton O 12/01/2008
Nott'm Forest 0 0 Swansea 29/01/2008
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Millwall 09/02/2008
Nott'm Forest 1 0 Swindon 16/02/2008
Carlisle are playing very well this year and well in line for a playoff spot. However the difference between their home and away records have to be seen to be believed. 13 wins from 15 home games is a quite sensational return, made all the more impressive by the fact that he defeat came way back in early September. Since then they have claimed the scalps of high flying Doncaster, Leeds and Walsall amongst others. But, take them on the road and it’s a very different story, just 4 wins away from home and the lack of goals is a real concern. Just two goals in the last seven outings is a poor return. Add in the fact that they have gathered just 4 points from the last possible 28 and you see how important that home record is to their league ambitions. For the superstitious of you out there, John Ward has being named Coca-Cola League 1 Manager of the Month for February. Kiss of death perhaps? Anyhow he looks set to be without top scorer Joe Garner who injured himself in midweek action against Crewe. His replacement Scott Dobie cannot play either as he is a former Forest player and has a clause in his contract.
Carlisle’s last 5 away games
Doncaster 1 0 Carlisle 12/01/2008
Cheltenham 1 0 Carlisle 25/01/2008
Oldham 2 0 Carlisle 29/01/2008
Port Vale 1 1 Carlisle 09/02/2008
Crewe 0 1 Carlisle 26/02/2008
Verdict
A strong home side against a poor travelling away side without their top striker, seems a no brainer but it might be closer than people think. Nevertheless Nottingham forest should have enough strength in defence to keep Carlisle out and should do enough to take the three points and send Carlisle away empty handed.
1 or 2 - 0 to the home side is the call.
PICK
Nottingham Forest -0.5 ( 1.92 @ vc bet) 6 points
A very interesting tie is in store at The City Ground on Monday evening. Both sides are fighting it out for second spot in division one behind Swansea. Nottingham Forest sit in 4th place just 2 points behind their opponents. Home form this season has been good with 10 wins from 16. They are unbeaten in their last six home games, winning five of them, and drawing the other one. Their success has revolved around a mean defence, which has kept 4 successive clean sheets at home and 11 in total. 19 clean sheets is their overall record and Carlisle are going to have to be very creative up front to get any rewards here.
Manager Colin Calderwood has no fresh injury worries though Will Hoskins and Nathan Tyson are long term absentees.
Nottingham forest last 5 home games
Nott'm Forest 2 1 Huddersfield 01/01/2008
Nott'm Forest 4 0 Leyton O 12/01/2008
Nott'm Forest 0 0 Swansea 29/01/2008
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Millwall 09/02/2008
Nott'm Forest 1 0 Swindon 16/02/2008
Carlisle are playing very well this year and well in line for a playoff spot. However the difference between their home and away records have to be seen to be believed. 13 wins from 15 home games is a quite sensational return, made all the more impressive by the fact that he defeat came way back in early September. Since then they have claimed the scalps of high flying Doncaster, Leeds and Walsall amongst others. But, take them on the road and it’s a very different story, just 4 wins away from home and the lack of goals is a real concern. Just two goals in the last seven outings is a poor return. Add in the fact that they have gathered just 4 points from the last possible 28 and you see how important that home record is to their league ambitions. For the superstitious of you out there, John Ward has being named Coca-Cola League 1 Manager of the Month for February. Kiss of death perhaps? Anyhow he looks set to be without top scorer Joe Garner who injured himself in midweek action against Crewe. His replacement Scott Dobie cannot play either as he is a former Forest player and has a clause in his contract.
Carlisle’s last 5 away games
Doncaster 1 0 Carlisle 12/01/2008
Cheltenham 1 0 Carlisle 25/01/2008
Oldham 2 0 Carlisle 29/01/2008
Port Vale 1 1 Carlisle 09/02/2008
Crewe 0 1 Carlisle 26/02/2008
Verdict
A strong home side against a poor travelling away side without their top striker, seems a no brainer but it might be closer than people think. Nevertheless Nottingham forest should have enough strength in defence to keep Carlisle out and should do enough to take the three points and send Carlisle away empty handed.
1 or 2 - 0 to the home side is the call.
PICK
Nottingham Forest -0.5 ( 1.92 @ vc bet) 6 points
Sunday Plans
The blog figures are in need of an updating so bear with me as time is not on my side these days.
Anyways, i have a few previews stuck up for you to read.
Everton V Portsmouth
Im looking forward to this game. Everton are on the back of an excellent run but the question is can they keep it up? Undefeated in the last seven games and only two defeats in the last seventeen, the defeats coming to Arsenal and Manchester United so hardly an embarrassment. Midweek they controlled the game against Man City and ran out easy 2 – 0 winners. A Champions league spot is now a very realistic target so they will be fully focused on the job in hand today. Yakubu is in terrific form and wouldn’t it be ironic if he scored against his old club today.
Portsmouth come into this one 6 points adrift of Everton in 9th place. Their away form this season is only bettered by Chelsea with 8 wins and a draw. In fact 21 goals in 14 games makes them one of the higher scoring away sides in the premiership and they will look to new signing Defoe to continue his good run of form today. Losing 2 in a row to Sunderland and Man Utd may have suggested that their away form was slipping but they have bounced back with wins over Bolton, Preston and Sunderland so all is not lost.
Verdict
Two similar teams in terms of physical ability here though I suspect that Pompey have a little more in terms of creativity. Should be an interesting game with a few chances for both sides and I think the best bet may be on both teams to score. Jermaine Defoe has looked sharp for Pompey whereas Yakuby has done likewise for Everton. I see a 1 – 1 or 2 – 1 scoreline outcome today.
PICK
Everton V Portsmouth – Both teams to score ( 2.1 @ bet365) 3 points
Bolton V Liverpool
Very difficult game to call. Both teams need points and for different reasons. Liverpools away record has not been great in terms of wins but only 2 defeats tells that they are a tough team to beat. With Everton and Villa playing well, that 4th spot is looking like it could be a struggle so the need for 3 points here today is huge for Benitez and his men. Daniel Agger may be back in what is a huge boost for the club. Last weekend they showed some great attacking flair and some truly horrendous defensive play against Boro and were lucky to take all 3 points.
Bolton on the other hand are kind of doing enough to survive. What worries me most about them is their lack of goals, Just two goals in their last 4 home games, one of those came against Derby and they failed to score against struggling Fulham. They have progresses to the next round of the Uefa cup, which is a big bonus for the club, but premiership survival is the main objective.
Verdict
I can’t tell which sides will come to play here. On their day, Liverpool can be excellent but can also be awful. The same goes for the home side though they tend to raise their game for the visit of big clubs. I think Liverpool can take something from this game and any team with Torres in it has a chance. With a hat trick last time out his confidence is sky high and if the Pool are to score today I strongly fancy that Torres will be the man.
PICK
Torres anytime goalscorer ( 2.4 @ paddy power) 3 points
Anyways, i have a few previews stuck up for you to read.
Everton V Portsmouth
Im looking forward to this game. Everton are on the back of an excellent run but the question is can they keep it up? Undefeated in the last seven games and only two defeats in the last seventeen, the defeats coming to Arsenal and Manchester United so hardly an embarrassment. Midweek they controlled the game against Man City and ran out easy 2 – 0 winners. A Champions league spot is now a very realistic target so they will be fully focused on the job in hand today. Yakubu is in terrific form and wouldn’t it be ironic if he scored against his old club today.
Portsmouth come into this one 6 points adrift of Everton in 9th place. Their away form this season is only bettered by Chelsea with 8 wins and a draw. In fact 21 goals in 14 games makes them one of the higher scoring away sides in the premiership and they will look to new signing Defoe to continue his good run of form today. Losing 2 in a row to Sunderland and Man Utd may have suggested that their away form was slipping but they have bounced back with wins over Bolton, Preston and Sunderland so all is not lost.
Verdict
Two similar teams in terms of physical ability here though I suspect that Pompey have a little more in terms of creativity. Should be an interesting game with a few chances for both sides and I think the best bet may be on both teams to score. Jermaine Defoe has looked sharp for Pompey whereas Yakuby has done likewise for Everton. I see a 1 – 1 or 2 – 1 scoreline outcome today.
PICK
Everton V Portsmouth – Both teams to score ( 2.1 @ bet365) 3 points
Bolton V Liverpool
Very difficult game to call. Both teams need points and for different reasons. Liverpools away record has not been great in terms of wins but only 2 defeats tells that they are a tough team to beat. With Everton and Villa playing well, that 4th spot is looking like it could be a struggle so the need for 3 points here today is huge for Benitez and his men. Daniel Agger may be back in what is a huge boost for the club. Last weekend they showed some great attacking flair and some truly horrendous defensive play against Boro and were lucky to take all 3 points.
Bolton on the other hand are kind of doing enough to survive. What worries me most about them is their lack of goals, Just two goals in their last 4 home games, one of those came against Derby and they failed to score against struggling Fulham. They have progresses to the next round of the Uefa cup, which is a big bonus for the club, but premiership survival is the main objective.
Verdict
I can’t tell which sides will come to play here. On their day, Liverpool can be excellent but can also be awful. The same goes for the home side though they tend to raise their game for the visit of big clubs. I think Liverpool can take something from this game and any team with Torres in it has a chance. With a hat trick last time out his confidence is sky high and if the Pool are to score today I strongly fancy that Torres will be the man.
PICK
Torres anytime goalscorer ( 2.4 @ paddy power) 3 points
Saturday, March 1, 2008
La Liga tonight
Atletico Madrid v FC Barcelona
The home side are not in the best of form going into this one. Two defeats on the trot in the league and they were knocked out of Europe by Bolton. Still they are in 4th place in La Liga but this is mainly due to the fact that many of the teams around them are not playing well. Just one point in their last 3 home games is a poor return and with only 4 points taken from the last possible 18 is a clear indication of the form they are currently in.
Everything is falling into place for Barcelona in 2008. They hold a 3 – 2 lead over Celtic in the champions league and barring a miracle will be through to the next round. 6 wins from 8 in 2008 and Real Madrid slip up’s have left Barca back into a title race that almost looked over at Xmas.
Real’s amazing 1 – 0 defeat last weekend at home to Getafe was another boost for Barcelona and with Real facing a tricky tie tonight at Recreativo, then Barca could potentially back atop the league tonight. My only concern is that Barca’s away form is not of the highest quality, with only 4 wins and 6 draws. The deciding factor for me tonight importance of the game coupled with Barca's current run of form. Lets not forget that Barcelona won this fixture 6 - 0 last year and that was after Atletico promising to put in a good performance to help Real win the title! Ronaldinho returns to the Barcelona panel along with Gudjohnsen, Sylvinho and Giovani Dos Santos
Verdict
Huge game tonight for Barcelona. There is a serious chance to regain top spot and with them playing with confidence I think they are worth a bet. The price of evens or slightly higher should be taken for medium stakes.
Good luck.
PICK
Barcelona –0.5 (2.01 @ betsson) 4 points
The home side are not in the best of form going into this one. Two defeats on the trot in the league and they were knocked out of Europe by Bolton. Still they are in 4th place in La Liga but this is mainly due to the fact that many of the teams around them are not playing well. Just one point in their last 3 home games is a poor return and with only 4 points taken from the last possible 18 is a clear indication of the form they are currently in.
Everything is falling into place for Barcelona in 2008. They hold a 3 – 2 lead over Celtic in the champions league and barring a miracle will be through to the next round. 6 wins from 8 in 2008 and Real Madrid slip up’s have left Barca back into a title race that almost looked over at Xmas.
Real’s amazing 1 – 0 defeat last weekend at home to Getafe was another boost for Barcelona and with Real facing a tricky tie tonight at Recreativo, then Barca could potentially back atop the league tonight. My only concern is that Barca’s away form is not of the highest quality, with only 4 wins and 6 draws. The deciding factor for me tonight importance of the game coupled with Barca's current run of form. Lets not forget that Barcelona won this fixture 6 - 0 last year and that was after Atletico promising to put in a good performance to help Real win the title! Ronaldinho returns to the Barcelona panel along with Gudjohnsen, Sylvinho and Giovani Dos Santos
Verdict
Huge game tonight for Barcelona. There is a serious chance to regain top spot and with them playing with confidence I think they are worth a bet. The price of evens or slightly higher should be taken for medium stakes.
Good luck.
PICK
Barcelona –0.5 (2.01 @ betsson) 4 points
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
