Manchester United V Birmingham
Manchester losing to West Ham the last day was good news for the few teams that are trying to catch them but it must have been the result that every Brum fan feared. As if thing were not bad enough for them they now have to travel to Old Trafford to face a team desperate to get back on track. Though Man U were beaten the last day, things could have been so much different. With a 1 – 0 lead they were presented with a penalty and a glorious chance to make it 2 - 0 but the usually reliable Cristiano Ronaldo drove it wide. Despite this penalty miss, I don’t expect it to affect him too much and once again Man U will look to him for inspiration. Van Der Sar should be once again ready for selection as will Wayne Rooney.
Birmingham have it all to do here to get a result. Their away form has been poor and they have conceded almost 2 goals a game on their travels. They won’t have the strength in dept to challenge United on their home turf and for me it’s a case of damage limitation for them. Manchester Uniteds defence is just far too strong and though they have conceded in the last 2 home games they have only conceded 3 all season, a remarkable effort.
That is not the kind of statistic that will get Birmingham hopes up and I expect the poor away form to continue.
2 or 3 – 0 is the call
Bolton V Derby
Bolton seem to be on the right track and have got the home form going again, something which they have lacked all season. 3 wins on the bounce and 7 goals scored to 1 conceded in the last two should give them confidence and they will see the visit of Derby as another great chance to extend the home record to 6 games unbeaten. Anelka is bang in form and he will also be trying to score for the fourth home game in a row.
Derby are heading down and theres no two ways about it. Their squad is depleted to say the least and they have two more men on the sidelines after a tough Xmas period in which they only obtained 1 point. In fact that point against Newcastle was their first in 8 games and they have only taken 2 points from a possible 30 on the road. Scoring goals has also been a problem and 10 goals in 20 matches certainly isn’t even going to give you a fighting chance of survival in the premiership. Only 3 of those have come away from Pride Park and news that Steve Howard is to be sold is only depleting their squad even more.
Verdict
Bolton are just playing too well at the Reebok at the moment to even entertain the idea of anything less than a win here. The odds are very low but Bolton should still have enough to win this with ease,
2 – 0 should be a realistic scoreline
Stoke V Hull
Stoke are a team bang in form at the moment. Unbeaten in the last 9 games and coming into this game against Hull with 5 points taken from a possible 9 over the Xmas period, a record that most teams would be happy with considering the opposition they had to face. Their last home game was on the 22nd of December in which they recorded a emphatic 3 – 1 win over table toppers West Brom.
Stoke have a full squad to chose from with the exception of Russell Hoult who was red carded against Plymouth.
Hull are no mugs this season and will be no pushovers on Tuesday. They are sitting in 8th place on the back of a 4 game unbeaten run. However most of their hard work and points have been picked up at home. On the road they are a different outfit and struggle to keep the opposition out and they have only two clean sheets on their travels. Like Stoke, the Xmas period has been good to them and they have 7 points from a possible 9. Fraizer Campbell looks to be the only injury worry
Verdict
Stoke can wrap up a good Xmas period with another 3 points. Their recent home form has been good and a win can push them to second spot. Hull have conceded 8 in their last 3 away games if they are that generous against Stoke then they will suffer.
Stoke to win 1 – 0 or 2 – 0
Carlisle V Hartlepool
A simple look at the stats here should tell you all you need to know about this one. Carlisle sit in 5th place, 9 places ahead of the opposition Hartlepool.
Their home record has been strong (7 – 1 – 1) and they have won the last 5 home games on the bounce, beating Leeds 3 – 1 along the way. In these 5 games they have scored 13 goals and only conceded the one so they have an efficient defence which is more than capable of shutting Hartlepool out. Paul Trollope has come through the festive period unscathed from injuries thus far and is looking at having a fully fit squad to choose from. They have lost the two games over the Xmas holidays but both were away from home where they tend to struggle.
Hartlepool on the contrary have lost the last 5 on the bounce away from home, only scoring 3 goals and conceding 10.
They are struggling with injuries at the moment and have Willie Boland (Flu),James Brown (Flu),Ben Clark (Hamstring),Tom Haigh (Foot),Jamie McCunnie (Knee),Andy Monkhouse (Knee) and Joel Porter (Knee) all out of action.
Verdict
I can’t see anything other than a comfortable home victory here. Carlisle need to get something from the Christmas holidays and now is a great chance to do so.
League two
Two more picks here and both are for home wins.
I fully expect M k Dons and Wycombe to have comfortable home wins and set the new year off to a good start.
Both have good home records and are up against teams that struggle on the road. Both Mansfield and Barnet haven’t taken any points away from home in a while and I don’t expect it to start tomorrow either.
PICKS
Manchester United – 1.75 Asian( 1.72 @ betdirect) 4 points
Bolton – 1 Asian (1.85 @ gamebookers) 4 points
Stoke –0.5 (1.98 @ bet365) 4 points
Carlisle –0.5 ( 2.02 @ canbet) 5 points
Wycombe -0.5 (1.7 @ gamebookers) 3 points
M k Dons –1 (european hdcp) (2.2 @ bet365) 3 points
Monday, December 31, 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
26th Decembers picks
Greetings to all, i hope you had a good day yesterday. As you can probably imagine im very stretched with time today so theres not much to say in the line of previews and so on. All the following have met the criteria and are suitable for betting on. Good Luck
Portsmouth V Arsenal (1.85 @ betsense) 3 points
Barnsley V Stoke (draw) (3.4 @ totesport) 3 points
Coventry V Crystal Palace +0 (2.13 @ mansion) 4 points
Hull V Wolves under 2.5 goals (1.8 @ centerbet) 4 points
Milwall V Brighton +0 (2.01 @ mansion) 3 points
Swansea - 1 V Cheltenham (1.72 @ gamebookers) 4 points
Yeovil V Swindon (1.88 @ pinnacle) 3 points
Wrexhan V Rochdale +0 ( 1.73 @ stanjames) 4 points
Boxing day often throws out strange results and there are a lot of factors to consider. My only advise is to keep stakes small over the xmas period.
Good luck.
Portsmouth V Arsenal (1.85 @ betsense) 3 points
Barnsley V Stoke (draw) (3.4 @ totesport) 3 points
Coventry V Crystal Palace +0 (2.13 @ mansion) 4 points
Hull V Wolves under 2.5 goals (1.8 @ centerbet) 4 points
Milwall V Brighton +0 (2.01 @ mansion) 3 points
Swansea - 1 V Cheltenham (1.72 @ gamebookers) 4 points
Yeovil V Swindon (1.88 @ pinnacle) 3 points
Wrexhan V Rochdale +0 ( 1.73 @ stanjames) 4 points
Boxing day often throws out strange results and there are a lot of factors to consider. My only advise is to keep stakes small over the xmas period.
Good luck.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Happy Holidays
Many of you may not celebrate Christmas in the same way but some of you will still have some time off to relax i hope.
Enjoy it while it lasts and i shall be back with my picks on Wednesday morning. Theres a full bill of games and i am still contemplating what strategy to take over the next few days. Some players will be playing as many as 4 games inside a 10 day period so theres many things to consider before placing any bets. Anyway, check back and i should have everything posted before 12 pm (uk time) on Wednesday.
Happy Christmas!!!
Enjoy it while it lasts and i shall be back with my picks on Wednesday morning. Theres a full bill of games and i am still contemplating what strategy to take over the next few days. Some players will be playing as many as 4 games inside a 10 day period so theres many things to consider before placing any bets. Anyway, check back and i should have everything posted before 12 pm (uk time) on Wednesday.
Happy Christmas!!!
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Sunday football picks
Fiorentina V Cagliari
Hard to look past the home win here.
Their title hopes may be gone but theres still lots to play for in the Seria A, a place in the Champions league is now the target. The Viola have not picked up a victory in their last five matches and have a great chance to end a 2 game losing streak at home in which they lost to table toppers Inter and 4th placed Udinese.
With a Christmas break coming up 3 points is a must for Fiorentina and they have a fully fit squad to chose from.
How to describe Cagliari? A sinking ship maybe? Their manager is gone and they are propping up the table with an away record that’s as bad as their home record. Only 7 scored on the road to 16 conceded and they were turned over quite easily last week by a below par Inter Milan.
Verdict
Fiorentina really need 3 points right now and they won’t have a better chance than against Cagliari. Mutu finally hit the net last weekend and he will look to increase his goal tally. It wont be as one sided as people think though and Fiorentina will have to work hard for the win. However they should still have enough quality to cover the handicap and win 2 – 0 or so
PICK
Fiorentina –1.5 Asian hdcp ( 2.05 @ canbet) 4 points
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Barcelona V Real Madrid
One of the most anticipated games in the Spanish calendar.
Barca are sitting in 2nd place 4 points behind Real and are facing into a 2 week winter break so a win is important for them. Statistically Barcelona are one of the strongest home teams around and have averaged almost 3 goals a game at home. With attacking talent all over the field it will take an immense effort to keep them out for 90 minutes. The only problem they have is the injury to Messi who’s a star man at the Nou camp.
Real, win lose or draw will be in first place for the Xmas holidays. Their away record reads (4 – 2- 2) and they have only failed to score in one away fixture averaging 2 goals a game. Like Barca they are filled with attacking options and can call on the likes of Robinho, Raul, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Baptista amongst others.
Verdict
Rather than going for a winner here I think the safer option is to take the over 2.5 goals choice. Last year the corresponding fixture finished 3 – 3, we may not get as many goals this time but we should still see three at least
PICK
Barcelona/Real Madrid over2.5 goals (1.8 @ stanjames) 4 points
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Blackburn V Chelsea
Theres no need to go into great detail here, Blackburns strongest 11 couldn’t beat a young Arsenal side midweek so is it fair to rule them out here? No in my opinion, they may not be playing well at the moment but they are still a hard side to get the better of. They are the kind of side that up their game for the visit of the “big teams” and Chelsea will certainly not have it all their own way at Ewood Park.
Their home record is all over the place, having recorded impressive results against Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle but being completely outclassed by Villa and tasting defeat to West Ham last time out.
Chelsea are crammed with stars but still lack that world class striker they need to open up any defence. Drogba is immense but when he is out, as he is tomorrow, they struggle to score. The loss of Terry for 6 weeks is also a massive blow to Chelsea as Grant’s side has conceded just 2 goals in 10 matches. They must now change things around and try to continue to play solid football at the back with Carvalho likely to take Terry’s place.
It’s interesting to note that the last 8 Chelsea away games have finished under 2.5
Verdict
I cant see many, if any goals in this one. Despite having Ballack back Chelsea struggle to find the killer touch up front, especially without Drogba. One goal may be enough to win this for either side and 1 – 0 to the Chelsea could be the outcome
PICK
Blackburn/Chelsea under 2.5 goals (1.72 @ expect) 4 points
Scorecast
F Lampard to score first and Chelsea to win 1 – 0
(33 @ vc bet) 1 point
Hard to look past the home win here.
Their title hopes may be gone but theres still lots to play for in the Seria A, a place in the Champions league is now the target. The Viola have not picked up a victory in their last five matches and have a great chance to end a 2 game losing streak at home in which they lost to table toppers Inter and 4th placed Udinese.
With a Christmas break coming up 3 points is a must for Fiorentina and they have a fully fit squad to chose from.
How to describe Cagliari? A sinking ship maybe? Their manager is gone and they are propping up the table with an away record that’s as bad as their home record. Only 7 scored on the road to 16 conceded and they were turned over quite easily last week by a below par Inter Milan.
Verdict
Fiorentina really need 3 points right now and they won’t have a better chance than against Cagliari. Mutu finally hit the net last weekend and he will look to increase his goal tally. It wont be as one sided as people think though and Fiorentina will have to work hard for the win. However they should still have enough quality to cover the handicap and win 2 – 0 or so
PICK
Fiorentina –1.5 Asian hdcp ( 2.05 @ canbet) 4 points
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Barcelona V Real Madrid
One of the most anticipated games in the Spanish calendar.
Barca are sitting in 2nd place 4 points behind Real and are facing into a 2 week winter break so a win is important for them. Statistically Barcelona are one of the strongest home teams around and have averaged almost 3 goals a game at home. With attacking talent all over the field it will take an immense effort to keep them out for 90 minutes. The only problem they have is the injury to Messi who’s a star man at the Nou camp.
Real, win lose or draw will be in first place for the Xmas holidays. Their away record reads (4 – 2- 2) and they have only failed to score in one away fixture averaging 2 goals a game. Like Barca they are filled with attacking options and can call on the likes of Robinho, Raul, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Baptista amongst others.
Verdict
Rather than going for a winner here I think the safer option is to take the over 2.5 goals choice. Last year the corresponding fixture finished 3 – 3, we may not get as many goals this time but we should still see three at least
PICK
Barcelona/Real Madrid over2.5 goals (1.8 @ stanjames) 4 points
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Blackburn V Chelsea
Theres no need to go into great detail here, Blackburns strongest 11 couldn’t beat a young Arsenal side midweek so is it fair to rule them out here? No in my opinion, they may not be playing well at the moment but they are still a hard side to get the better of. They are the kind of side that up their game for the visit of the “big teams” and Chelsea will certainly not have it all their own way at Ewood Park.
Their home record is all over the place, having recorded impressive results against Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle but being completely outclassed by Villa and tasting defeat to West Ham last time out.
Chelsea are crammed with stars but still lack that world class striker they need to open up any defence. Drogba is immense but when he is out, as he is tomorrow, they struggle to score. The loss of Terry for 6 weeks is also a massive blow to Chelsea as Grant’s side has conceded just 2 goals in 10 matches. They must now change things around and try to continue to play solid football at the back with Carvalho likely to take Terry’s place.
It’s interesting to note that the last 8 Chelsea away games have finished under 2.5
Verdict
I cant see many, if any goals in this one. Despite having Ballack back Chelsea struggle to find the killer touch up front, especially without Drogba. One goal may be enough to win this for either side and 1 – 0 to the Chelsea could be the outcome
PICK
Blackburn/Chelsea under 2.5 goals (1.72 @ expect) 4 points
Scorecast
F Lampard to score first and Chelsea to win 1 – 0
(33 @ vc bet) 1 point
Friday, December 21, 2007
Weekend Football picks
Here are more picks that have made the cut for selection. All the picks are based on statistical info such as home and away form and i have also checked on recent player performances and injuries, suspensions etc.
The reason that i havent written a full preview for these games is simply that i dont have the time. Ive listed the games and the picks im taking. As there is so many picks this week i have had to reduce my staking so instead of average 5 or 6 points per bet, the average size stake this weekend will be 3 or 4 depending on confidence.
Charlton -0.5 V Hull - (1.9 @ mansion) 4 points
Bristol City - 0.5 V Barnsley - (1.95 @ mansion) 4 points
Wolves -0.5 V Leicester - (1.96 @ canbet) 3 points
Leeds -1.25 V Bristol Rovers (2.03 @ bet365) 3 points
Nottingham Forest -1.25 V Port Vale (1.97 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Rochdale V Barnet (1.9 @ betsson) 3 points
Leeds and Nottingham Forest win double (2.02 @ betdirect) 4 points
The reason that i havent written a full preview for these games is simply that i dont have the time. Ive listed the games and the picks im taking. As there is so many picks this week i have had to reduce my staking so instead of average 5 or 6 points per bet, the average size stake this weekend will be 3 or 4 depending on confidence.
Charlton -0.5 V Hull - (1.9 @ mansion) 4 points
Bristol City - 0.5 V Barnsley - (1.95 @ mansion) 4 points
Wolves -0.5 V Leicester - (1.96 @ canbet) 3 points
Leeds -1.25 V Bristol Rovers (2.03 @ bet365) 3 points
Nottingham Forest -1.25 V Port Vale (1.97 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Rochdale V Barnet (1.9 @ betsson) 3 points
Leeds and Nottingham Forest win double (2.02 @ betdirect) 4 points
Some Saturday picks
Liverpool V Portsmouth
I just cant back the home side here. Home odds of 1.45 or so are far too short in my opinion. Liverpool lost all hope of winning the Premiership when they went down 1 – 0 to Man United last week.
Their home form has not been so hot and Anfield is no longer the tough venue it once was for visiting sides (3 – 4 – 1) is not the kind of record that will win you the league title and its something that Benitez has to sort out quickly.
Steven Gerrard will captain the side, while Xabi Alonso came through Wednesday in one piece and should start. Crouch is suspended.
Its strange for me that you can get odds of 7 on Portsmouth, a team with the best away record in the league and they also have the same points total as Liverpool. Fair enough they have never won at Anfield but they have won their last 6 away games, a feat that’s hard to ignore. With the African Nations coming soon, Pompey require a strong Christmas campaign before they lose the likes of Muntari and Kanu in January.
Defender Noe Pamarot is out with a hamstring injury, with Hermann Hreidarsson set to fill in at left-back. Sean Davis is doubtful so Pedro Mendes should start.
Verdict
On their day Liverpool can rip anyone apart but they are not playing so well at the moment. The pressure is really on them to perform but I think that this Portsmouth side is just too good to write off. Il take Pompey +1 on the Asian handicap, as the odds of 1.98 @ betfred are still appealing to me.
PICK
Portsmouth + 1 (1.98 @ betfred) 3 points
Middlesborough V West Ham
Middlesborough recorded only their 4th win of the season last week against lowly Derby. It was their second win on the bounce too coming a week after that tremendous win over the Gunners. However when all is said and done its hard not to see Boro being involved in relegation fight come next may. Their general play has been poor and their main problem has been the lack of action up front. Only 16 goals scored all season. A statistic that reflects badly on them when you consider that only Derby have scored less than them. Tomorrow they will be without the suspended Rochemback but hope to include J Arca again. Both the midfielders S Downing and O'Neill are doubtful.
West Ham are having a decent season so far. They sit in 12th place and have a good record on the road. (4 – 1 – 3) although it has to be said they still have to travel to the Emirates , Old Trafford and Anfield. Their away stats may be blinded slightly by their 5 – 0 thrashing of Derby but it still has to be said that they are playing with heart and determination, obviously they don’t want to leave it too late this year.
They do have selection concerns at the moment though, C Cole is out suspended. Freddie Ljungberg is sidelined again with migraine’s. And finally Bellamy is still injured.
Verdict
Middlesborough may have won their last two but I think many are reading a little too much into their win over Arsenal. They raised their game 200% that day and that is an effort that they seem to save only for the big guns. West Ham have picked up more points on their travels for some reason. They don’t concede many away (1 in their last 4) and Boro don’t score too many in general. Low scoring draw is possible but i fancy the Hammers to sneak it
PICK
West Ham level ball (2.25 @ centrebet) 5 points
Walsall V Millwall
As I write its 9th place Walsall who entertain 20th place Millwall in this League 1 clash at the Banks stadium.
Walsall haven’t exactly set the world alight in their home fixtures so far but in more recent times they seem to have got some kind of rhythm going. Unbeaten in the last 4 at home, a stat that is made more impressive in that those results include a draw against Leeds and a 1 – 0 victory over high flying Nottingham Forest.
They are coming into a tough Christmas period in which they have 4 games in 10 days, Millwall on Saturday and then have a trip to Port Vale on Boxing Day, followed by a visit to Oldham on December 29 and a home fixture against Doncaster on New Year’s Day. Daniel Fox will be suspended after chalking up five bookings but otherwise the Saddlers have a full squad to chose from.
Walsall last 4 home games
Walsall 2 0 Cheltenham 03/11/2007
Walsall 0 0 Luton 17/11/2007
Walsall 1 0 Nott'm Forest 04/12/2007
Walsall 1 1 Leeds 15/12/2007
Milwall come into this game struggling in 20th place and their last away game was a fantastic 1 – 0 win over Leyton Orient. However they were turned over at home in their next game, letting a 2 – 1 lead slip to be defeated 3 – 2 by Oldham. On the road this year they have been poor. Although they have scored in the last 4 away fixtures goals have been the problem for them, with only 5 away goals to 15 conceded. The fact is that they have only taken 6 points from a possible 27 on their travels. Following the departure of Will Hoskins back to Watford and with Jay Simpson suspended, the return to fitness of a few key players is news that’s most welcome to boss Kenny Jackett. Dave Brammer, Richard Shaw and Neil Harris are fit enough for selection once again.
Milwall last four away games
Gillingham 1 1 Millwall 13/10/2007
Leeds 4 2 Millwall 27/10/2007
Bristol R. 2 1 Millwall 17/11/2007
Leyton O 0 1 Millwall 04/12/2007
The two already clashed in mid September when Walsall took all three points courtesy of a late Troy Deeney effort.
Verdict
Walsall seem to have got it together in the last few home games. A hugely impressive performances against Leeds last week has hopefully set them on track and if they can reproduce the type of play that they showed there then they should have enough to take 3 points from Milwall. The price of evens at bodog is too hard to ignore for me.
Walsall to win 1 – 0 or 2 - 1
PICK
Walsall win (2 @ bodog) 5 points
I just cant back the home side here. Home odds of 1.45 or so are far too short in my opinion. Liverpool lost all hope of winning the Premiership when they went down 1 – 0 to Man United last week.
Their home form has not been so hot and Anfield is no longer the tough venue it once was for visiting sides (3 – 4 – 1) is not the kind of record that will win you the league title and its something that Benitez has to sort out quickly.
Steven Gerrard will captain the side, while Xabi Alonso came through Wednesday in one piece and should start. Crouch is suspended.
Its strange for me that you can get odds of 7 on Portsmouth, a team with the best away record in the league and they also have the same points total as Liverpool. Fair enough they have never won at Anfield but they have won their last 6 away games, a feat that’s hard to ignore. With the African Nations coming soon, Pompey require a strong Christmas campaign before they lose the likes of Muntari and Kanu in January.
Defender Noe Pamarot is out with a hamstring injury, with Hermann Hreidarsson set to fill in at left-back. Sean Davis is doubtful so Pedro Mendes should start.
Verdict
On their day Liverpool can rip anyone apart but they are not playing so well at the moment. The pressure is really on them to perform but I think that this Portsmouth side is just too good to write off. Il take Pompey +1 on the Asian handicap, as the odds of 1.98 @ betfred are still appealing to me.
PICK
Portsmouth + 1 (1.98 @ betfred) 3 points
Middlesborough V West Ham
Middlesborough recorded only their 4th win of the season last week against lowly Derby. It was their second win on the bounce too coming a week after that tremendous win over the Gunners. However when all is said and done its hard not to see Boro being involved in relegation fight come next may. Their general play has been poor and their main problem has been the lack of action up front. Only 16 goals scored all season. A statistic that reflects badly on them when you consider that only Derby have scored less than them. Tomorrow they will be without the suspended Rochemback but hope to include J Arca again. Both the midfielders S Downing and O'Neill are doubtful.
West Ham are having a decent season so far. They sit in 12th place and have a good record on the road. (4 – 1 – 3) although it has to be said they still have to travel to the Emirates , Old Trafford and Anfield. Their away stats may be blinded slightly by their 5 – 0 thrashing of Derby but it still has to be said that they are playing with heart and determination, obviously they don’t want to leave it too late this year.
They do have selection concerns at the moment though, C Cole is out suspended. Freddie Ljungberg is sidelined again with migraine’s. And finally Bellamy is still injured.
Verdict
Middlesborough may have won their last two but I think many are reading a little too much into their win over Arsenal. They raised their game 200% that day and that is an effort that they seem to save only for the big guns. West Ham have picked up more points on their travels for some reason. They don’t concede many away (1 in their last 4) and Boro don’t score too many in general. Low scoring draw is possible but i fancy the Hammers to sneak it
PICK
West Ham level ball (2.25 @ centrebet) 5 points
Walsall V Millwall
As I write its 9th place Walsall who entertain 20th place Millwall in this League 1 clash at the Banks stadium.
Walsall haven’t exactly set the world alight in their home fixtures so far but in more recent times they seem to have got some kind of rhythm going. Unbeaten in the last 4 at home, a stat that is made more impressive in that those results include a draw against Leeds and a 1 – 0 victory over high flying Nottingham Forest.
They are coming into a tough Christmas period in which they have 4 games in 10 days, Millwall on Saturday and then have a trip to Port Vale on Boxing Day, followed by a visit to Oldham on December 29 and a home fixture against Doncaster on New Year’s Day. Daniel Fox will be suspended after chalking up five bookings but otherwise the Saddlers have a full squad to chose from.
Walsall last 4 home games
Walsall 2 0 Cheltenham 03/11/2007
Walsall 0 0 Luton 17/11/2007
Walsall 1 0 Nott'm Forest 04/12/2007
Walsall 1 1 Leeds 15/12/2007
Milwall come into this game struggling in 20th place and their last away game was a fantastic 1 – 0 win over Leyton Orient. However they were turned over at home in their next game, letting a 2 – 1 lead slip to be defeated 3 – 2 by Oldham. On the road this year they have been poor. Although they have scored in the last 4 away fixtures goals have been the problem for them, with only 5 away goals to 15 conceded. The fact is that they have only taken 6 points from a possible 27 on their travels. Following the departure of Will Hoskins back to Watford and with Jay Simpson suspended, the return to fitness of a few key players is news that’s most welcome to boss Kenny Jackett. Dave Brammer, Richard Shaw and Neil Harris are fit enough for selection once again.
Milwall last four away games
Gillingham 1 1 Millwall 13/10/2007
Leeds 4 2 Millwall 27/10/2007
Bristol R. 2 1 Millwall 17/11/2007
Leyton O 0 1 Millwall 04/12/2007
The two already clashed in mid September when Walsall took all three points courtesy of a late Troy Deeney effort.
Verdict
Walsall seem to have got it together in the last few home games. A hugely impressive performances against Leeds last week has hopefully set them on track and if they can reproduce the type of play that they showed there then they should have enough to take 3 points from Milwall. The price of evens at bodog is too hard to ignore for me.
Walsall to win 1 – 0 or 2 - 1
PICK
Walsall win (2 @ bodog) 5 points
The weekends picks
This weekend will be a busy one for sure. There are many games that have met the criteria so i will be adding picks all day and will have the last of my thoughts posted by 9 o clock tonight so check back. As there is a range of picks my stake will vary for low to medium with no bet as such really catching my eye for large stakes.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Wednesday night football
Im back with two picks.
Panionios V Bordeaux
I'm going for the home win here for a few reasons, first off Panionios really need the win as only 3 points can guarantee them going through to the next round. Bordeaux have already qualified and word is that they have travelled to Greece with a second string squad. At the weekend they were involved in a titanic struggle with Marseille where they came from 2 - 0 down to snatch a 2 - 2 draw. Bordeaux coach Laurent Blanc, whose side have won all three of their group games so far has named a 15-man squad that includes a group of inexperienced youngsters.
Only three players in the travelling squad, experienced defender David Jemmali and attacking pair Jussie and Fernando Cavenaghi, can be classed as regular contenders for a first-team spot on a weekly basis.
Panionios face possibly one of the most important game in their history as they bid for qualification. Their president has promised all players involved a special bonus as incentive for progression to the next round. If the home outfit fail in their bid to get all 3 points then it looks like Galatasary will go through at Panionios's expense and that is something that the Greek side wont want to happen. At the weekend they also had an excellent morale boosting 1 - 0 win over Panathinaikos.
I think that the home side have all the motivation to win here. Greece is a very hard place to go and get a result as many teams have shown in the past. Nothing less than 3 points will do the home team whereas the away side are facing into a winter break from Ligue 1. They are also through to the next round and its hard to see them putting in a 100% committed display, especially if the crowd get on their back. The odds on the home win have dropped very fast since team news was announced. I think that the home side are more than capable of winning by more than 1 goal so il try them -1 on the asian handicap.
Chelsea V Liverpool
Chelsea and Liverpool have played out some entertaining games in recent years. The two sides over the recent years have built up quite a rivalry and now square off at Stamford Bridge looking to go all the way and win the competition.Both took serious blows to their premiership campaigns after defeats to Arsenal and Manchester United respectively.
Chelsea have just reached 50 games unbeaten at home in all competitions but its hard to see Liverpool breaking that sequence. In the past Chelsea has always taken the Carling Cup seriously and Wednesday’s game will be no different. They are likely to rotate the team but have lots of talent and experience on the bench anyhow so its not exactly a bad thing Both took serious blows to their premiership campaigns after defeats to Arsenal and Manchester United respectively. Here's the deal, Drogba is out and Chelsea without him are fairly shot shy and up against a tough Liverpool defence can expect no loose change. As against Arsenal last week most of the pressure will be on Frank Lampard to try and deliver the goods but he is not in the best of form at the moment and Chelsea need him to play well.
Liverpool have played all the top 3 teams at home and have taken only 2 points, with the way things are going domestically and in Europe, Liverpool go into this Carling Cup Quarter Final knowing it may be their only chance of a trophy this season.
Liverpool so far have beaten Cardiff at home 2-1 and Reading. Both games Liverpool looked comfortable but this game will obviously be much more difficult. Team news is that Benitez is likely to make one or two changes to the side that lost to United at the weekend.
Liverpool against Chelsea is always a tight cagey affair. In the league clash at Anfield this year Chelsea held Liverpool to a 1-1 draw.. At the Bridge, Liverpool have a poor record and I don’t think they will be improving this record on Wednesday, although if they do go down it wont be without a struggle and they certainly wont be hammered
Recent meetings between the two
2006/2007 Community Shield = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:2
2006/2007 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0
2006/2007 Champions League = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0
2005/2006 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 2:0
2005/2006 FA Cup = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:2
2005/2006 Champions League = Chelsea - Liverpool 0:0
2004/2005 Champions League = Chelsea - Liverpool 0:0
2004/2005 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0
2003/2004 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 0:1
I don't think we will be in for a goal fest here, in fact i think we we'll be lucky if we even see one! But as this is a cup game stakes should be kept low. Unders is the call.
PICK
Panionios -1 asian hdcp (2.10 @ mansion) 4 points
Chelsea V Liverpool under 2.5 (1.7 @ betsense) 5 points
Panionios V Bordeaux
I'm going for the home win here for a few reasons, first off Panionios really need the win as only 3 points can guarantee them going through to the next round. Bordeaux have already qualified and word is that they have travelled to Greece with a second string squad. At the weekend they were involved in a titanic struggle with Marseille where they came from 2 - 0 down to snatch a 2 - 2 draw. Bordeaux coach Laurent Blanc, whose side have won all three of their group games so far has named a 15-man squad that includes a group of inexperienced youngsters.
Only three players in the travelling squad, experienced defender David Jemmali and attacking pair Jussie and Fernando Cavenaghi, can be classed as regular contenders for a first-team spot on a weekly basis.
Panionios face possibly one of the most important game in their history as they bid for qualification. Their president has promised all players involved a special bonus as incentive for progression to the next round. If the home outfit fail in their bid to get all 3 points then it looks like Galatasary will go through at Panionios's expense and that is something that the Greek side wont want to happen. At the weekend they also had an excellent morale boosting 1 - 0 win over Panathinaikos.
I think that the home side have all the motivation to win here. Greece is a very hard place to go and get a result as many teams have shown in the past. Nothing less than 3 points will do the home team whereas the away side are facing into a winter break from Ligue 1. They are also through to the next round and its hard to see them putting in a 100% committed display, especially if the crowd get on their back. The odds on the home win have dropped very fast since team news was announced. I think that the home side are more than capable of winning by more than 1 goal so il try them -1 on the asian handicap.
Chelsea V Liverpool
Chelsea and Liverpool have played out some entertaining games in recent years. The two sides over the recent years have built up quite a rivalry and now square off at Stamford Bridge looking to go all the way and win the competition.Both took serious blows to their premiership campaigns after defeats to Arsenal and Manchester United respectively.
Chelsea have just reached 50 games unbeaten at home in all competitions but its hard to see Liverpool breaking that sequence. In the past Chelsea has always taken the Carling Cup seriously and Wednesday’s game will be no different. They are likely to rotate the team but have lots of talent and experience on the bench anyhow so its not exactly a bad thing Both took serious blows to their premiership campaigns after defeats to Arsenal and Manchester United respectively. Here's the deal, Drogba is out and Chelsea without him are fairly shot shy and up against a tough Liverpool defence can expect no loose change. As against Arsenal last week most of the pressure will be on Frank Lampard to try and deliver the goods but he is not in the best of form at the moment and Chelsea need him to play well.
Liverpool have played all the top 3 teams at home and have taken only 2 points, with the way things are going domestically and in Europe, Liverpool go into this Carling Cup Quarter Final knowing it may be their only chance of a trophy this season.
Liverpool so far have beaten Cardiff at home 2-1 and Reading. Both games Liverpool looked comfortable but this game will obviously be much more difficult. Team news is that Benitez is likely to make one or two changes to the side that lost to United at the weekend.
Liverpool against Chelsea is always a tight cagey affair. In the league clash at Anfield this year Chelsea held Liverpool to a 1-1 draw.. At the Bridge, Liverpool have a poor record and I don’t think they will be improving this record on Wednesday, although if they do go down it wont be without a struggle and they certainly wont be hammered
Recent meetings between the two
2006/2007 Community Shield = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:2
2006/2007 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0
2006/2007 Champions League = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0
2005/2006 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 2:0
2005/2006 FA Cup = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:2
2005/2006 Champions League = Chelsea - Liverpool 0:0
2004/2005 Champions League = Chelsea - Liverpool 0:0
2004/2005 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 1:0
2003/2004 English Premier = Chelsea - Liverpool 0:1
I don't think we will be in for a goal fest here, in fact i think we we'll be lucky if we even see one! But as this is a cup game stakes should be kept low. Unders is the call.
PICK
Panionios -1 asian hdcp (2.10 @ mansion) 4 points
Chelsea V Liverpool under 2.5 (1.7 @ betsense) 5 points
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Carling cup 18th December
Ah the ole carling cup. A punters nightmare and a betting grave for many. I gave up betting on this racket many moons ago and wont break the habit tonight. Im putting in a serious effort for the weekend to try and recoup loses as last weekend hit me harder than i would have liked. Nevertheless im staying positive as theres no point crying over spilt milk...
Tonight sees Arsenal take on Blackburn at Ewood park, but with Arsene Wenger expected to again give Arsenal's fringe players a chance to impress, there no telling what may happen. If pushed for a bet i would take this one in running and lay Arsenal as they wont like the physical approach by the Blackburn outfit. This is also Blackburns only realistic chance of silverware so they should be pumped up for it.small stakes advised. Overs looks fairly safe too, should be 3 or more before 60 minutes.
Man City host Tottenham and i think this could be a good game. if pushed i would take the mancs.
But as i said, im getting ready for the weekend and keeping my powder dry till then.
Tune in later to find out!
( oh and anyone reading this, if you would please vote in the above poll, as id like to see peoples views on my previews, thanks)
Tonight sees Arsenal take on Blackburn at Ewood park, but with Arsene Wenger expected to again give Arsenal's fringe players a chance to impress, there no telling what may happen. If pushed for a bet i would take this one in running and lay Arsenal as they wont like the physical approach by the Blackburn outfit. This is also Blackburns only realistic chance of silverware so they should be pumped up for it.small stakes advised. Overs looks fairly safe too, should be 3 or more before 60 minutes.
Man City host Tottenham and i think this could be a good game. if pushed i would take the mancs.
But as i said, im getting ready for the weekend and keeping my powder dry till then.
Tune in later to find out!
( oh and anyone reading this, if you would please vote in the above poll, as id like to see peoples views on my previews, thanks)
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Sunday's thoughts
Today is a busy day in England with the top 4 clashing. Also theres a full round of games to chose from in Spain and Italy.
Back to England though and they are two very hard games to predict,
Arsenal V Chelsea
Id love to see Arsenal win but i cant see it. Theres reports of Fabregas being back but i doubt that he could be anywhere close to 100%. I cant call it, Drogba and Essien are both out and they are both huge blows to Chelsea. I cant separate them and il have a small punt on the draw and a smaller bet on 1 - 1.
Liverpool V Manchester United
Same as above, another game where i cant separate the teams. Both are good on their day and i see another tough encounter. Man U have had the better of the recent meetings and again il be having a small bet on the draw and a small bet on 1 - 1.
PICKS
Arsenal / Chelsea draw ( 3.3 @ bet365) 2 points
correct score 1 - 1 ( 6.5 generally available) 1/2 a point
Liverpool / Manchester United draw ( 3.1 @ bet365) 2 points
Correct score 1 - 1 (6.5 generally available) 1/2 a point
Small bets for me today, i have my eye on one Spanish game for later and will post later
Back to England though and they are two very hard games to predict,
Arsenal V Chelsea
Id love to see Arsenal win but i cant see it. Theres reports of Fabregas being back but i doubt that he could be anywhere close to 100%. I cant call it, Drogba and Essien are both out and they are both huge blows to Chelsea. I cant separate them and il have a small punt on the draw and a smaller bet on 1 - 1.
Liverpool V Manchester United
Same as above, another game where i cant separate the teams. Both are good on their day and i see another tough encounter. Man U have had the better of the recent meetings and again il be having a small bet on the draw and a small bet on 1 - 1.
PICKS
Arsenal / Chelsea draw ( 3.3 @ bet365) 2 points
correct score 1 - 1 ( 6.5 generally available) 1/2 a point
Liverpool / Manchester United draw ( 3.1 @ bet365) 2 points
Correct score 1 - 1 (6.5 generally available) 1/2 a point
Small bets for me today, i have my eye on one Spanish game for later and will post later
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Todays summary
No need to sugar coat it. Today was crap, a poor days work for me. Not to mind all the losers i had the thing that annoys me more is the winners i missed out on. I had narrowed down the weekends picks to a certain few but i left out home wins for Sheffield United, Hull, Bristol City and Carlisle as i felt they were not strong enough selections to make the final cut. And guess what, they all won. Very typical of the form im in right now.
Anyway apologies to anyone who followed and i WILL make it all back with interest before the end of the month. I have yet to finish in the minus figures for a month and i have no intention of letting it happen now.
Tomorrows a big day so im going to sleep on it before posting my thought in the morning.
Anyway apologies to anyone who followed and i WILL make it all back with interest before the end of the month. I have yet to finish in the minus figures for a month and i have no intention of letting it happen now.
Tomorrows a big day so im going to sleep on it before posting my thought in the morning.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Bits and Bobs for Saturday 15th of December
Birmingham V Reading
I like the look of Birmingham here, they have improved a s the year has gone on and look like they will stay up this season. They may have been lucky last week but were unlucky the week before against Newcastle. Reading are 0-1-6 away from home and that is a fairly terrible record, they have been beaten by the likes of Sunderland and Bolton. I rate Birmingham higher than these two alone and think they can get the win here. BUT, it has to be mentioned that Reading have scored in all but 1 away game this year, also all but one game have gone over 2.5 goals and that is my preferred choice
Manchester City V Bolton
Man Citys home record is immaculate. 8 wins from 8 , 5 clean sheets. Playing against a Bolton side that has yet to win on the road and with only 4 away goals. Everything here points towards a Manchester City clean sheet and is the only bet on this game that i will be taking. 2.25 @ Paddy Power is too good to turn down
Derby V Middlesborough
I like the look of Derby to sneak a win here. Lets face it, they may be crap but they will win again at some stage during the year so why not against a poor Boro side. I know Boro beat Arsenal last week but thats why i didnt tip Arsenal, no Fabregas usually no bet. And Boro always play well against Arsenal and also the better teams. I just think they may be brough down to earth by a battling Derby side. Level ball just in case as the odds are still nice enough.
East Stirling V Elgin City
Goals Goals Goals. Neither team can defend, both can score, East Stirling's last home game had 9 yes 9 goals, Elgins last away game had 7 goals!!! SEE a pattern here? The bookies have priced the over under market quite low but i still think that there will be plenty of goals seen at this game
PICKS
Birmingham V Reading over 2.5 goals (1.95 @ bet365) 4 points
Man City clean sheet (2.25 @ paddy power) 3 points
Derby level ball (draw no bet) (2.2 @ paddy power) 3 points
East Stirling V Elgin City over 3 goals (1.82 @ canbet) 6 points
I like the look of Birmingham here, they have improved a s the year has gone on and look like they will stay up this season. They may have been lucky last week but were unlucky the week before against Newcastle. Reading are 0-1-6 away from home and that is a fairly terrible record, they have been beaten by the likes of Sunderland and Bolton. I rate Birmingham higher than these two alone and think they can get the win here. BUT, it has to be mentioned that Reading have scored in all but 1 away game this year, also all but one game have gone over 2.5 goals and that is my preferred choice
Manchester City V Bolton
Man Citys home record is immaculate. 8 wins from 8 , 5 clean sheets. Playing against a Bolton side that has yet to win on the road and with only 4 away goals. Everything here points towards a Manchester City clean sheet and is the only bet on this game that i will be taking. 2.25 @ Paddy Power is too good to turn down
Derby V Middlesborough
I like the look of Derby to sneak a win here. Lets face it, they may be crap but they will win again at some stage during the year so why not against a poor Boro side. I know Boro beat Arsenal last week but thats why i didnt tip Arsenal, no Fabregas usually no bet. And Boro always play well against Arsenal and also the better teams. I just think they may be brough down to earth by a battling Derby side. Level ball just in case as the odds are still nice enough.
East Stirling V Elgin City
Goals Goals Goals. Neither team can defend, both can score, East Stirling's last home game had 9 yes 9 goals, Elgins last away game had 7 goals!!! SEE a pattern here? The bookies have priced the over under market quite low but i still think that there will be plenty of goals seen at this game
PICKS
Birmingham V Reading over 2.5 goals (1.95 @ bet365) 4 points
Man City clean sheet (2.25 @ paddy power) 3 points
Derby level ball (draw no bet) (2.2 @ paddy power) 3 points
East Stirling V Elgin City over 3 goals (1.82 @ canbet) 6 points
Weekend action **part 2**
Nottingham Forest V Northampton
Nottingham forest will look to continue on their journey back to the top tiers of the English leagues as they take on Northampton at home on Saturday. Their home form has been impressive and their only defeat came on match day two to Leeds. With Leyton Orient facing a tough away tie at Carlisle and Swansea also facing a tricky game against Southend, the chance is there for Forest to get back the top spot. Colin Calderwood has challenged his players to pick up the pace and take 6 points in their next two league games, which are both at home. Midweek they were knocked out of the FA Cup at the hands of Luton town and in doing so lost out on a glamour tie with Liverpool in the next round. Now they have the league to concentrate on and with Leeds driving their way up the ladder its imperative for the likes of Nottingham to take advantage of the home venue and take as many points as possible.
Nottingham Forest last 5 home games
Nott'm Forest 0 0 Doncaster 20/10/2007
Nott'm Forest 0 0 Oldham 30/10/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Tranmere 03/11/2007
Nott'm Forest 4 1 Southend 06/11/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Crewe 24/11/2007
Team news
Kris Commons, Arron Davies and Junior Agogo are all fit again and forcing for starting places. Calderwood has confirmed he does not have any fresh injury concerns but will have to make do without injured Julian Bennett and the suspended Sammy Clingan.
Northampton
Northampton sit in 18th place. Their away form has been poor with 5 defeats and only 6 points taken from a possible 27. They came up against table toppers Swansea last time out and were comfortably beaten 3 – 0. Their main problem especially away from home has been in their defence, only one clean sheet away from home and they are up against a Forest attack that has scored 15 goals at the City ground this year.
Boss Stuart Gray has this week stated his concern at the lack of goals his side has scored and has called on his player to take the pressure off Andy Kirk, top scorer this season. (who is out injured)
Northampton last 5 away games
Millwall 2 0 Northampton 02/10/2007
Luton 4 1 Northampton 15/10/2007
Oldham 0 1 Northampton 27/10/2007
Crewe 1 0 Northampton 17/11/2007
Swansea 3 0 Northampton 04/12/2007
Team news
Former Forest defender Chris Doig is nursing a serious hamstring injury and is not expected back until sometime in the New Year.
The Cobblers will also be without injured duo Giles Coke and Andy Kirk, while Andy Holt is a doubt with an ankle injury.
Verdict
Forest were knocked out of the FA Cup midweek and will be looking for a speedy return to winning ways. Northampton have struggled to score goals with only 3 in their last 7. Their main man Andy kirk (11 goals) is out and its hard to see them troubling a Forest defence that has only conceded 2 goals on their last 7 home games. Comfortable home win is the call
Nottingham forest 3 – 0 Northampton
PICK
Nottingham forest -1 asian hdcp (1.99 @ canbet) 5 points
Nottingham forest will look to continue on their journey back to the top tiers of the English leagues as they take on Northampton at home on Saturday. Their home form has been impressive and their only defeat came on match day two to Leeds. With Leyton Orient facing a tough away tie at Carlisle and Swansea also facing a tricky game against Southend, the chance is there for Forest to get back the top spot. Colin Calderwood has challenged his players to pick up the pace and take 6 points in their next two league games, which are both at home. Midweek they were knocked out of the FA Cup at the hands of Luton town and in doing so lost out on a glamour tie with Liverpool in the next round. Now they have the league to concentrate on and with Leeds driving their way up the ladder its imperative for the likes of Nottingham to take advantage of the home venue and take as many points as possible.
Nottingham Forest last 5 home games
Nott'm Forest 0 0 Doncaster 20/10/2007
Nott'm Forest 0 0 Oldham 30/10/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Tranmere 03/11/2007
Nott'm Forest 4 1 Southend 06/11/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Crewe 24/11/2007
Team news
Kris Commons, Arron Davies and Junior Agogo are all fit again and forcing for starting places. Calderwood has confirmed he does not have any fresh injury concerns but will have to make do without injured Julian Bennett and the suspended Sammy Clingan.
Northampton
Northampton sit in 18th place. Their away form has been poor with 5 defeats and only 6 points taken from a possible 27. They came up against table toppers Swansea last time out and were comfortably beaten 3 – 0. Their main problem especially away from home has been in their defence, only one clean sheet away from home and they are up against a Forest attack that has scored 15 goals at the City ground this year.
Boss Stuart Gray has this week stated his concern at the lack of goals his side has scored and has called on his player to take the pressure off Andy Kirk, top scorer this season. (who is out injured)
Northampton last 5 away games
Millwall 2 0 Northampton 02/10/2007
Luton 4 1 Northampton 15/10/2007
Oldham 0 1 Northampton 27/10/2007
Crewe 1 0 Northampton 17/11/2007
Swansea 3 0 Northampton 04/12/2007
Team news
Former Forest defender Chris Doig is nursing a serious hamstring injury and is not expected back until sometime in the New Year.
The Cobblers will also be without injured duo Giles Coke and Andy Kirk, while Andy Holt is a doubt with an ankle injury.
Verdict
Forest were knocked out of the FA Cup midweek and will be looking for a speedy return to winning ways. Northampton have struggled to score goals with only 3 in their last 7. Their main man Andy kirk (11 goals) is out and its hard to see them troubling a Forest defence that has only conceded 2 goals on their last 7 home games. Comfortable home win is the call
Nottingham forest 3 – 0 Northampton
PICK
Nottingham forest -1 asian hdcp (1.99 @ canbet) 5 points
Weekend Football action **Part one**
Portsmouth V Tottenham
Portsmouth
Portsmouth are having a strange year. Strange in the sense that away from home they are playing fantastic football. They are creating chance after chance and are capable of scoring goals out of nothing as Muntari’s two goals last week prove. Away from home they have scored 17 times which is by far and away the best in the league. But home tells a different story, played seven and although they are still unbeaten they have only picked up two wins, which is strange for a team in 5th place in the league. Their last 3 home games have also finished 0 – 0, another odd fact. There has been trouble off the field too with harry Redknapp making the headlines for all the wrong reasons but so far it wouldn’t appear to have affected the team. As well as Pompey have been playing the next month will determine where they will finish in the league as they will be losing Kanu, Muntari, Utaka, and Diop for the African nations cup. That’s four key players and they need to start registering 3 pointers, especially at home before the tournament begins. Throw in the fact that the next two league games are against Liverpool and Arsenal and you can see why a good result against Spurs is a must.
Team news
Harry Redknapp looks to name an unchanged side from the side that won at Aston Villa. Davis and Lauren are fit again but look likely to start on the bench. Crainie and Primus are both out. Kanu is getting near match fitness and is another boost to the squad.
Tottenham
It’s been a long season for Spurs fans. Pre season they were tipped to finally break into the top four and finally get the better of Arsenal but it hasn’t happened for them yet. One clean sheet (against Wigan) from 16 matches says it all really and they have been forced to attack all out in a bid to win games. To give them a bit of credit most of their games have been associated with goals so entertainment wise they have been good. But betting wise they are just too erratic to be considered bankers in any game. Last weeks 3 –2 reverse to Birmingham is evidence of this. Without Ledley King, Tottenham always look vulnerable at the back and unfortunately Paul Robinson is having a season to forget so far. They are still winless on the road but have managed to hit the net in their last 6 away games which has given them a fighting chance of getting a result. However it is still that weak defence that comes back to haunt them.
Team news
Gareth Bale and Rocha are absent through injury. Ledley King (knee), Anthony Gardner (ankle), and Benoit Assou-Ekotto (knee) are also out, while Robbie Keane is suspended for the 2nd of his 3 match punishment
Verdict
The home form has to kick in at some stage for Portsmouth. They have two tough upcoming games so they should be very keen to take the 3 points here. However that poor home record is stopping me from being too confident on backing them. Tottenham are very inconsistent and their games often include bizarre unexpected events, they are well capable of scoring and have a lot of attacking options in the form of Jenas, Malbranque, Lennon, Bent, Berbatov and Defoe. Id give a slight advantage to Pompey here but the value bet for me has to be both teams to score, which is 1.73 @ bet365
PICKS
Portsmouth V Tottenham, both teams to score (1.73 @ bet365) 5 points
More Picks to follow
Portsmouth
Portsmouth are having a strange year. Strange in the sense that away from home they are playing fantastic football. They are creating chance after chance and are capable of scoring goals out of nothing as Muntari’s two goals last week prove. Away from home they have scored 17 times which is by far and away the best in the league. But home tells a different story, played seven and although they are still unbeaten they have only picked up two wins, which is strange for a team in 5th place in the league. Their last 3 home games have also finished 0 – 0, another odd fact. There has been trouble off the field too with harry Redknapp making the headlines for all the wrong reasons but so far it wouldn’t appear to have affected the team. As well as Pompey have been playing the next month will determine where they will finish in the league as they will be losing Kanu, Muntari, Utaka, and Diop for the African nations cup. That’s four key players and they need to start registering 3 pointers, especially at home before the tournament begins. Throw in the fact that the next two league games are against Liverpool and Arsenal and you can see why a good result against Spurs is a must.
Team news
Harry Redknapp looks to name an unchanged side from the side that won at Aston Villa. Davis and Lauren are fit again but look likely to start on the bench. Crainie and Primus are both out. Kanu is getting near match fitness and is another boost to the squad.
Tottenham
It’s been a long season for Spurs fans. Pre season they were tipped to finally break into the top four and finally get the better of Arsenal but it hasn’t happened for them yet. One clean sheet (against Wigan) from 16 matches says it all really and they have been forced to attack all out in a bid to win games. To give them a bit of credit most of their games have been associated with goals so entertainment wise they have been good. But betting wise they are just too erratic to be considered bankers in any game. Last weeks 3 –2 reverse to Birmingham is evidence of this. Without Ledley King, Tottenham always look vulnerable at the back and unfortunately Paul Robinson is having a season to forget so far. They are still winless on the road but have managed to hit the net in their last 6 away games which has given them a fighting chance of getting a result. However it is still that weak defence that comes back to haunt them.
Team news
Gareth Bale and Rocha are absent through injury. Ledley King (knee), Anthony Gardner (ankle), and Benoit Assou-Ekotto (knee) are also out, while Robbie Keane is suspended for the 2nd of his 3 match punishment
Verdict
The home form has to kick in at some stage for Portsmouth. They have two tough upcoming games so they should be very keen to take the 3 points here. However that poor home record is stopping me from being too confident on backing them. Tottenham are very inconsistent and their games often include bizarre unexpected events, they are well capable of scoring and have a lot of attacking options in the form of Jenas, Malbranque, Lennon, Bent, Berbatov and Defoe. Id give a slight advantage to Pompey here but the value bet for me has to be both teams to score, which is 1.73 @ bet365
PICKS
Portsmouth V Tottenham, both teams to score (1.73 @ bet365) 5 points
More Picks to follow
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Wednesday night action
So it turns out yesterday was a bit of a damp squib. Marseille were nowhere to be seen against Liverpool and Schalke played very well against Rosenborg. As i was out of my usual enviroment i somehow missed that Ipswich were playing Leicester at home and missed out on a sure home win.
Anyhow, onto tonights action and once again there is very little that interests me for any serious large bets
Arsenal V Steaua Bucharest
Arsenal have dropped a few points lately and although they dont really need a win here i still think they will go all out for a win, purely for a confidence boost. Despite all the players that they will be missing tonight (Fabregas included) i still think that they have enough strength in dept to beat a Steaua team who cannot progress. Lehmann gets a chance to impress in goal for a change and i cant see him conceding as he doesnt get too many games any more. Steaua are finding goals hard to come by so i also think theres value in an Arsenal clean sheet.
Rangers V Lyon
A must win game for Lyon and it should be a great game. Rangers have really surprised me and have played well in all the games to date. Lyon need a win here to progress but Rangers and their fanatical support will stand in their way. A game thats very hard to call, Lyon are either excellent or terrible and the same can be said of Rangers. However With rivals Celtic already gone through i think Rangers will do everything in their power to progress. I cant bet against any team with Juninho in their starting 11 so i cant back the home side here. I do however think there will be goals and a price of 2.2 for over 2.5 goals really appeals to me.
PICKS
Arsenal -1.5 asian hdcp (2.05 @ bodog) 3 points
Arsenal clean sheet (1.88 @ betfair) 3 points
Rangers V Lyon over 2.5 goals (2.2 @ bluesq) 5 points
Il have my Weekend picks up on Friday evening which will most likely be my next post. Check back anyway.
Anyhow, onto tonights action and once again there is very little that interests me for any serious large bets
Arsenal V Steaua Bucharest
Arsenal have dropped a few points lately and although they dont really need a win here i still think they will go all out for a win, purely for a confidence boost. Despite all the players that they will be missing tonight (Fabregas included) i still think that they have enough strength in dept to beat a Steaua team who cannot progress. Lehmann gets a chance to impress in goal for a change and i cant see him conceding as he doesnt get too many games any more. Steaua are finding goals hard to come by so i also think theres value in an Arsenal clean sheet.
Rangers V Lyon
A must win game for Lyon and it should be a great game. Rangers have really surprised me and have played well in all the games to date. Lyon need a win here to progress but Rangers and their fanatical support will stand in their way. A game thats very hard to call, Lyon are either excellent or terrible and the same can be said of Rangers. However With rivals Celtic already gone through i think Rangers will do everything in their power to progress. I cant bet against any team with Juninho in their starting 11 so i cant back the home side here. I do however think there will be goals and a price of 2.2 for over 2.5 goals really appeals to me.
PICKS
Arsenal -1.5 asian hdcp (2.05 @ bodog) 3 points
Arsenal clean sheet (1.88 @ betfair) 3 points
Rangers V Lyon over 2.5 goals (2.2 @ bluesq) 5 points
Il have my Weekend picks up on Friday evening which will most likely be my next post. Check back anyway.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Tuesday nights football action
Alright gentlemen. Im currently abroad on business so i havent time to write up full or detailed previews. It looks like another bizarre European night of action with plenty of teams needing to win and certain teams needing only to draw etc. Because of this i think results will be very hard to predict acurately and maybe the best option will be lots of goals.
Real Madrid V Lazio
Both teams still need a result here, the home team only need a draw though but Lazio really need a win. Because of this i think Lazio will have to attack leaving them vulnerable at the back, we all know that Real Madrid are packed with quality all through the team and they will score at some stage. But owing to how much Lazio will press forward i think that they will also score as the Madrid defence is less than watertight.
Overs is the call here for me.
Marseille V Liverpool
The odds on Liverpool are far too low. Mostly because every english tipster is tipping them to get a result here. They have been very lucky in the past and have often only scraped through to the next round. BUT, the big question is can they do it again tonight, i think their time may be up. Sure they had resounding wins in their last 2 games but they were both at Anfield, a very tough place to go. We saw at the weekend that they could be beaten as Reading demonstrated by winning 3 - 1. Marseille already beat Liverpool 1 - 0 at Anfield, why not again tonight? Odds of 3.40 level ball are screaming to be backed. The market often over reacts when English teams are playing, mainly due to the number of money put on them by patriotic punters.This leads to very high odds on the "outsider" We saw this very clearly when England played Croatia a few weeks back. That doesnt gaurantee a Liverpool win though. Marseille have an excellent record against English teams at home. Marseille odds are too high for me to ignore.
Schalke V Rosenborg
I think many are over reacting to Rosenborgs 4 - 0 beating in the last round from Chelsea. They have shown they can play away from home as the 2 - 0 win against Valencia can testify, also dont forget they held Chelsea at Stamford bridge. So why are Schalke such overwhelming favourites tonight? I have no idea and theres no such thing as a gaurantee as Shaktar proved last week. I think Rosenborg can upset the odds tonight and grab a draw that will see them through.
PICK
Real Madrid V Lazio over 2.5 goals (1.73 @ stan james) 4 points
Marseille draw no bet (3.4 @ bluesq) 3 points
Rosenborg + 1 asian hdcp ( 3.05 @ betsson) 2 points
All in all i would advise people to keep stakes low as the european cup is anything but 100% predictable on a night like tonight.
Real Madrid V Lazio
Both teams still need a result here, the home team only need a draw though but Lazio really need a win. Because of this i think Lazio will have to attack leaving them vulnerable at the back, we all know that Real Madrid are packed with quality all through the team and they will score at some stage. But owing to how much Lazio will press forward i think that they will also score as the Madrid defence is less than watertight.
Overs is the call here for me.
Marseille V Liverpool
The odds on Liverpool are far too low. Mostly because every english tipster is tipping them to get a result here. They have been very lucky in the past and have often only scraped through to the next round. BUT, the big question is can they do it again tonight, i think their time may be up. Sure they had resounding wins in their last 2 games but they were both at Anfield, a very tough place to go. We saw at the weekend that they could be beaten as Reading demonstrated by winning 3 - 1. Marseille already beat Liverpool 1 - 0 at Anfield, why not again tonight? Odds of 3.40 level ball are screaming to be backed. The market often over reacts when English teams are playing, mainly due to the number of money put on them by patriotic punters.This leads to very high odds on the "outsider" We saw this very clearly when England played Croatia a few weeks back. That doesnt gaurantee a Liverpool win though. Marseille have an excellent record against English teams at home. Marseille odds are too high for me to ignore.
Schalke V Rosenborg
I think many are over reacting to Rosenborgs 4 - 0 beating in the last round from Chelsea. They have shown they can play away from home as the 2 - 0 win against Valencia can testify, also dont forget they held Chelsea at Stamford bridge. So why are Schalke such overwhelming favourites tonight? I have no idea and theres no such thing as a gaurantee as Shaktar proved last week. I think Rosenborg can upset the odds tonight and grab a draw that will see them through.
PICK
Real Madrid V Lazio over 2.5 goals (1.73 @ stan james) 4 points
Marseille draw no bet (3.4 @ bluesq) 3 points
Rosenborg + 1 asian hdcp ( 3.05 @ betsson) 2 points
All in all i would advise people to keep stakes low as the european cup is anything but 100% predictable on a night like tonight.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Inter Milan V Torino
Inter Milan V Torino
Can Inter keep the ball rolling and take another 3 points? It would take a brave man to back Torino with large stakes today, even at odds of 20 or 25 where they are currently trading. Inter seem very comfortable at home, they pass it about well and create plenty of opportunities to score. They won comfortably midweek and if you look down through their home results this season they have won comfortably in most of their games. They are also coming into this on the back of a 6 game winning streak at home, a run that all teams will be trying to break. They have a few injury problems at the moment with Dacourt joining Figo,, Adriano, Toldo and Viera on the injured list.
Torino sit in 13th place. Their main problem this year has been scoring on a consistent basis. 14 goals so far and still winless on the road. They have been solid enough at the back though and as a result have featured in a good few low scoring draws. Ventola will be given the chance to impress over his former club
Inter will look to keep their home record going as they try to get some distance between themselves and Roma who also look like they will take 3 points today against lowly Livorno.
Ibrahimovic has been in amazing form and is probably playing the best football of his career at the moment. It will take a monumental effort from the Torino defence to keep him at bay for 90 minutes.
Taking into consideration that Torino seem to be the draw specialists in the league it wouldn't surprise me if this game goes down to the wire. Still though its just impossible to see them holding Inter scoreless for 90 minutes. Ibrahimovic to score first at 4.50 looks tempting but i think Inter should win this 2 - 0 or so and should cover the 1.5 handicap. evens is just too tempting to turn down for me.
PICK
Inter Milan -1.5 (1.98 @ bet365) 4 points
Can Inter keep the ball rolling and take another 3 points? It would take a brave man to back Torino with large stakes today, even at odds of 20 or 25 where they are currently trading. Inter seem very comfortable at home, they pass it about well and create plenty of opportunities to score. They won comfortably midweek and if you look down through their home results this season they have won comfortably in most of their games. They are also coming into this on the back of a 6 game winning streak at home, a run that all teams will be trying to break. They have a few injury problems at the moment with Dacourt joining Figo,, Adriano, Toldo and Viera on the injured list.
Torino sit in 13th place. Their main problem this year has been scoring on a consistent basis. 14 goals so far and still winless on the road. They have been solid enough at the back though and as a result have featured in a good few low scoring draws. Ventola will be given the chance to impress over his former club
Inter will look to keep their home record going as they try to get some distance between themselves and Roma who also look like they will take 3 points today against lowly Livorno.
Ibrahimovic has been in amazing form and is probably playing the best football of his career at the moment. It will take a monumental effort from the Torino defence to keep him at bay for 90 minutes.
Taking into consideration that Torino seem to be the draw specialists in the league it wouldn't surprise me if this game goes down to the wire. Still though its just impossible to see them holding Inter scoreless for 90 minutes. Ibrahimovic to score first at 4.50 looks tempting but i think Inter should win this 2 - 0 or so and should cover the 1.5 handicap. evens is just too tempting to turn down for me.
PICK
Inter Milan -1.5 (1.98 @ bet365) 4 points
La Liga on Sunday
Barcelona V Deportivo
The pressure is really on Barcelona to take all 3 points after Real Madrids 1- 0 away win at Athletic Bilbao last night. They have not been as convincing in their displays this year but despite all the rumours and small talk concerning players unhappiness and that Rikjard is to get the boot, they still sit in 2nd place. Their away record might be what is stopping them from taking over in 1st place but theres no denying that their home form is as usual something special. 7 games played and 7 won, 20 goals scored and only 3 conceded and plenty of one sided convincing wins along the way. Samuel Eto’o is back from injury and now Rikjard has a selection headache as he has to try and fit Ronaldinho, Samuel Eto'o ,Lionel Messi and Thierry Henry into his starting 11. More importantly for me is news that Deco is fut again for selection and he is a massive boost for the team.
Deportivo have gone very far downhill in recent seasons. From top4 on a consistent basis they have dropped down to mid to low table mediocrity. Miguel Ángel Lotina took over in the summer but this week the board have admitted that the team performances are worrying, not a good sign.
On the field their away form has been average, with the exception of that exceptional 1 – 0 away win in Sevilla back in October. They have a few positional changes today but otherwise a fit squa to pick from.
Given that real gained 3 points last night, Barca really need to step up to the plate and convince the critics. Eto’o and Deco back are huge boosts and I can see a few goals in this one. Hopefully all for Barca.
Home win
Villareal V Real Betis
Villareal have dropped 4 points in their last two matches. Maybe a sign of complacency I think as otherwise they have been in terrific form all season. Their 5 – 0 drubbing at the hands of Real on Match day 2 seemed to wake them up and since then they have been playing well, especially at home where they have beaten the likes of Barcelona and Sevilla. January sees a tough month for them with some hard games so they should look to take as many points before then as possible.
Only one defeat at home this season and they are coming off the back of a comfortable midweek win in the Uefa cup over Elfsborg of Sweden.
Betis are really struggling this year. 2nd from bottom and the pack above them seems to be moving away slowly. If they are to get back up the table they need to improve their all around play. Hector Cuper was this week given the boot for the poor displays to date. They are still winless on the road scoring 4 and conceding 11. Pacy Odonkor is out which is a big blow.
I expect Villareal to get back to winning ways here today. They are pretty reliable at home, maybe not prolific winners and don’t give out to many hammerings to teams but nonetheless its hard to see Betis getting anything from this one.
Home win
PICK
Barcelona –1.75 asian hdcp (1.83 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Villareal –1 asian hdcp(2.17 @ mansion) 4 points
The pressure is really on Barcelona to take all 3 points after Real Madrids 1- 0 away win at Athletic Bilbao last night. They have not been as convincing in their displays this year but despite all the rumours and small talk concerning players unhappiness and that Rikjard is to get the boot, they still sit in 2nd place. Their away record might be what is stopping them from taking over in 1st place but theres no denying that their home form is as usual something special. 7 games played and 7 won, 20 goals scored and only 3 conceded and plenty of one sided convincing wins along the way. Samuel Eto’o is back from injury and now Rikjard has a selection headache as he has to try and fit Ronaldinho, Samuel Eto'o ,Lionel Messi and Thierry Henry into his starting 11. More importantly for me is news that Deco is fut again for selection and he is a massive boost for the team.
Deportivo have gone very far downhill in recent seasons. From top4 on a consistent basis they have dropped down to mid to low table mediocrity. Miguel Ángel Lotina took over in the summer but this week the board have admitted that the team performances are worrying, not a good sign.
On the field their away form has been average, with the exception of that exceptional 1 – 0 away win in Sevilla back in October. They have a few positional changes today but otherwise a fit squa to pick from.
Given that real gained 3 points last night, Barca really need to step up to the plate and convince the critics. Eto’o and Deco back are huge boosts and I can see a few goals in this one. Hopefully all for Barca.
Home win
Villareal V Real Betis
Villareal have dropped 4 points in their last two matches. Maybe a sign of complacency I think as otherwise they have been in terrific form all season. Their 5 – 0 drubbing at the hands of Real on Match day 2 seemed to wake them up and since then they have been playing well, especially at home where they have beaten the likes of Barcelona and Sevilla. January sees a tough month for them with some hard games so they should look to take as many points before then as possible.
Only one defeat at home this season and they are coming off the back of a comfortable midweek win in the Uefa cup over Elfsborg of Sweden.
Betis are really struggling this year. 2nd from bottom and the pack above them seems to be moving away slowly. If they are to get back up the table they need to improve their all around play. Hector Cuper was this week given the boot for the poor displays to date. They are still winless on the road scoring 4 and conceding 11. Pacy Odonkor is out which is a big blow.
I expect Villareal to get back to winning ways here today. They are pretty reliable at home, maybe not prolific winners and don’t give out to many hammerings to teams but nonetheless its hard to see Betis getting anything from this one.
Home win
PICK
Barcelona –1.75 asian hdcp (1.83 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Villareal –1 asian hdcp(2.17 @ mansion) 4 points
Friday, December 7, 2007
Bits and Bobs for Saturday
Aston Villa V Porstmouth
Two in form teams meet here and i have a feeling that this will finish level. A battle for European places is the prize in sight for both teams. Pompey are playing much better away from home than they are at their own grounds and despite all the recent hype surrounding Harry Redknapp i dont think it will affect them as much as some people think. Two very evenly matched teams going head to head and i just cant see past a draw, more than likely 1 - 1 scoreline.
Celtic V St Mirren
Very rarely do i dip into scottish football but i cant help myself here. Celtic should win here and easy too. They have the advantage of not having a champions league game to prepare for next week and for the next few weeks the league will be their main priority. Their last 5 home games were wins by 3 goals or more and they are yet to concede at Parkhead. St Mirren have only scored 3 on the road and are looking like relegation material. We should at the very least see a 2 - 0 win and possibly money back.
Southend V Swindon
Swindon are really a team in turmoil at the moment and im surprised at the generous odds for Southend. They were very impressive last Wednesday night in their 4 - 1 win over Huddersfield so confidence should be high, Swindon have lost the last 4 on the road, that will most likely read 5 tomorrow evening. They are in serious danger of being forced into administration after the collapse of Andrew Fitton's proposed takeover of the club on Thursday. Add in that the manager Paul Sturrock has departed. Its all going wrong for them. Home win.
PICKS
Aston Villa V Portsmouth Draw ( 3.30 @ bet365) 2 points
Aston Villa V Portsmouth 1 - 1 correct score ( 7 @ bluesq) 1 point
Celtic -2 asian hdcp (2.05 @ betfred) 4 points
Southend (1.83 @ betfred) 5 points
Two in form teams meet here and i have a feeling that this will finish level. A battle for European places is the prize in sight for both teams. Pompey are playing much better away from home than they are at their own grounds and despite all the recent hype surrounding Harry Redknapp i dont think it will affect them as much as some people think. Two very evenly matched teams going head to head and i just cant see past a draw, more than likely 1 - 1 scoreline.
Celtic V St Mirren
Very rarely do i dip into scottish football but i cant help myself here. Celtic should win here and easy too. They have the advantage of not having a champions league game to prepare for next week and for the next few weeks the league will be their main priority. Their last 5 home games were wins by 3 goals or more and they are yet to concede at Parkhead. St Mirren have only scored 3 on the road and are looking like relegation material. We should at the very least see a 2 - 0 win and possibly money back.
Southend V Swindon
Swindon are really a team in turmoil at the moment and im surprised at the generous odds for Southend. They were very impressive last Wednesday night in their 4 - 1 win over Huddersfield so confidence should be high, Swindon have lost the last 4 on the road, that will most likely read 5 tomorrow evening. They are in serious danger of being forced into administration after the collapse of Andrew Fitton's proposed takeover of the club on Thursday. Add in that the manager Paul Sturrock has departed. Its all going wrong for them. Home win.
PICKS
Aston Villa V Portsmouth Draw ( 3.30 @ bet365) 2 points
Aston Villa V Portsmouth 1 - 1 correct score ( 7 @ bluesq) 1 point
Celtic -2 asian hdcp (2.05 @ betfred) 4 points
Southend (1.83 @ betfred) 5 points
Saturday action
Manchester V Derby
The gulf between these two teams is huge. No disrespect to Derby fans but they are very far out of their league and if teams like West Ham can run up huge scores against them then what will Man Utd do to them at old trafford.
Man uniteds home record reads (7 - 1- 0 ) and more importantly for my bet choice they have scored 16 and only conceded 1.
On the contrary Derby are have the worst away record in the league. The 0 - 0 draw at Fulham being the only highlight worth mentioning.
No goals scored and 20 goals concede on the road tells you all you need to know about their away record and its impossible to see them getting anything other than a hiding at old Trafford. Bigger better teams have gone to the theatre of Dreams and failed to deliver.
My pick is Man Utd to win both halves, so in effect they only need to score a goal in either half as i dont see Derby scoring at all or its going to take something quite spectacular to beach the United defence and unfortunately for Derby fans it doesnt look likely.
Rooney, Ronaldo and Tevez must be licking their lips at attacking this weak Derby defence.
United have kept 9 clean sheets this year so far, that should read 10 come 4.45 tomorrow evening. Easy win for the red devils.
(Bet is found under match specials at bet365)
PICK
Manchester United to win both Halves (1.9 @ bet365) 10 points (max bet)
The gulf between these two teams is huge. No disrespect to Derby fans but they are very far out of their league and if teams like West Ham can run up huge scores against them then what will Man Utd do to them at old trafford.
Man uniteds home record reads (7 - 1- 0 ) and more importantly for my bet choice they have scored 16 and only conceded 1.
On the contrary Derby are have the worst away record in the league. The 0 - 0 draw at Fulham being the only highlight worth mentioning.
No goals scored and 20 goals concede on the road tells you all you need to know about their away record and its impossible to see them getting anything other than a hiding at old Trafford. Bigger better teams have gone to the theatre of Dreams and failed to deliver.
My pick is Man Utd to win both halves, so in effect they only need to score a goal in either half as i dont see Derby scoring at all or its going to take something quite spectacular to beach the United defence and unfortunately for Derby fans it doesnt look likely.
Rooney, Ronaldo and Tevez must be licking their lips at attacking this weak Derby defence.
United have kept 9 clean sheets this year so far, that should read 10 come 4.45 tomorrow evening. Easy win for the red devils.
(Bet is found under match specials at bet365)
PICK
Manchester United to win both Halves (1.9 @ bet365) 10 points (max bet)
League 1 Saturday afternoon
Leeds V Huddersfield
There can be no doubt that leeds are a level above all the rest in Division 1. 15 points deducted at seasons beginning and still they are favourites to finish top of the pile and make a speedy return to the championship. Their form both home and away has been impressive but at Elland road they have been near on unbeatable. (8 – 1 – 0) is most impressive and the only points dropped were to Leyton Orient back in October when the visitors ground out a dogged 1 – 1 draw. That seemed to be the start of a slide somewhat for Leeds as they dropped further points on the road, being defeated to Cheltenam and Carlisle. However home is where they seem to be most comfortable and they have scored 20 goals and only concede 5. With the Huddersfield game kicking off at 12.15, they have a great chance to get a psychological boost (if you believe in that sort of thing) as a win will take them into second place, albeit possibly only until 4.45. That would put the pressure on the other teams above them to get good results also.
Leeds Last 5 home
Leeds 2 0 Swansea 22/09/2007
Leeds 1 0 Yeovil 06/10/2007
Leeds 4 2 Millwall 27/10/2007
Leeds 2 1 Swindon 17/11/2007
Leeds 3 0 Port Vale 04/12/2007
Team news
Striker’s Leon Constantine and Mark De Vries are out but otherwise
Dennis Wise looks to have a fully fit squad to chose from.
Huddersfield sit in 15 position in the table on 23 points. Like many other teams in this league they are more comfortable at home but they are capable of surprising away from home also as a 1 – 0 win over table toppers Swansea proved a few weeks back. However Southend took them a little more seriously last Wednesday night and ran out convincing 4 – 1 winners. Their away record reads (3 – 0 - 6), they have tasted defeat in their 6 of their last 7 away games and have been well beaten too only scoring 2 goals whilst conceding 15!
Team news
Frank Sinclair and Keeper Matt are both suspended. Alex Smithies will be handed his starting debut as goalkeeper.
Tom Clarke will miss out and Club Captain Jon Worthington also looks unlikely to feature as he continues with his recovery from his long-term hernia problem.
Huddersfield Last 5 away games
Walsall 4 0 Huddersfield 06/10/2007
Doncaster 2 0 Huddersfield 14/10/2007
Tranmere 3 0 Huddersfield 26/10/2007
Swansea 0 1 Huddersfield 16/11/2007
Southend 4 1 Huddersfield 05/12/2007-12-07
Verdict
Owing to the derby nature of this game, a tough tense encounter can be expected. Still it’s hard to ignore the fine form that Leeds have shown at Elland road. They don’t concede many while Huddersfield have really struggled to score, especially away from home.
Home win.
Picks
Leeds -1 asian hdcp (2.16 @ canbet) 6 points
Leeds 1 - 0 Correct score ( 7 @ centrebet) 1 point
Leeds 2 - 0 Correct score (7 @ paddy power) 1 point
Stay tuned for more
There can be no doubt that leeds are a level above all the rest in Division 1. 15 points deducted at seasons beginning and still they are favourites to finish top of the pile and make a speedy return to the championship. Their form both home and away has been impressive but at Elland road they have been near on unbeatable. (8 – 1 – 0) is most impressive and the only points dropped were to Leyton Orient back in October when the visitors ground out a dogged 1 – 1 draw. That seemed to be the start of a slide somewhat for Leeds as they dropped further points on the road, being defeated to Cheltenam and Carlisle. However home is where they seem to be most comfortable and they have scored 20 goals and only concede 5. With the Huddersfield game kicking off at 12.15, they have a great chance to get a psychological boost (if you believe in that sort of thing) as a win will take them into second place, albeit possibly only until 4.45. That would put the pressure on the other teams above them to get good results also.
Leeds Last 5 home
Leeds 2 0 Swansea 22/09/2007
Leeds 1 0 Yeovil 06/10/2007
Leeds 4 2 Millwall 27/10/2007
Leeds 2 1 Swindon 17/11/2007
Leeds 3 0 Port Vale 04/12/2007
Team news
Striker’s Leon Constantine and Mark De Vries are out but otherwise
Dennis Wise looks to have a fully fit squad to chose from.
Huddersfield sit in 15 position in the table on 23 points. Like many other teams in this league they are more comfortable at home but they are capable of surprising away from home also as a 1 – 0 win over table toppers Swansea proved a few weeks back. However Southend took them a little more seriously last Wednesday night and ran out convincing 4 – 1 winners. Their away record reads (3 – 0 - 6), they have tasted defeat in their 6 of their last 7 away games and have been well beaten too only scoring 2 goals whilst conceding 15!
Team news
Frank Sinclair and Keeper Matt are both suspended. Alex Smithies will be handed his starting debut as goalkeeper.
Tom Clarke will miss out and Club Captain Jon Worthington also looks unlikely to feature as he continues with his recovery from his long-term hernia problem.
Huddersfield Last 5 away games
Walsall 4 0 Huddersfield 06/10/2007
Doncaster 2 0 Huddersfield 14/10/2007
Tranmere 3 0 Huddersfield 26/10/2007
Swansea 0 1 Huddersfield 16/11/2007
Southend 4 1 Huddersfield 05/12/2007-12-07
Verdict
Owing to the derby nature of this game, a tough tense encounter can be expected. Still it’s hard to ignore the fine form that Leeds have shown at Elland road. They don’t concede many while Huddersfield have really struggled to score, especially away from home.
Home win.
Picks
Leeds -1 asian hdcp (2.16 @ canbet) 6 points
Leeds 1 - 0 Correct score ( 7 @ centrebet) 1 point
Leeds 2 - 0 Correct score (7 @ paddy power) 1 point
Stay tuned for more
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Crvena Zvezda – Bolton - Uefa Cup
Crvena Zvezda – Bolton
Premier League strugglers Bolton Wanderers travel to Serbia to take on Crvena Zvezda on Matchday 4 of Uefa Cup Group F. A win is a must for both teams but realistically speaking both are poor and have failed to impress at any stage of the tournament, Bolton could only manage draws at home to Braga and Aris though they did improve a bit to get a 2 - 2 in Munich against Bayern.
Crvena Zvezda on the other hand have yet to get a point. Like Bolton they saved their best performance for the game against Bayern and were only denied by a late Toni Kroos goal.
With two games left in the group then anything but 3 points tonight will put them out. Its quite surprising that a team that so nearly qualified for the champions league should struggle as they have but thats football for you. It should also be noted that they have a new boss, and since he has came in they have changed their style of play to a more attractive attacking brand, 8 goals in the last 3 league games will testify to this. The mood and atmosphere has taken a turn for the better since Kosanovic departed and in general, team morale has improved.
The thing that swayed me in favor of Crvena tonight is the news of players that new Bolton boss Gary Megson has left at home and wont travel, names such as Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen. Ivan Campo is also illegitimate for the Uefa cup. They have an important league game against Wigan on Sunday and its obvious that the Wigan game has more importance to them.
On their home patch Crvena are very tough to break down and I don’t see Bolton getting too many chances to score tonight, Also the atmosphere will be electric, something Bolton players wont be used to either.
Seeing as both sides have to win it may be foolish to write off either but I feel that the home side will be much more fired up for this game. Bolton seem to have one eye on their vital weekend clash and that’s never a good preparation to have for any game, not to mind an away clash in Europe.
Home win
PICK
Crvena Zvezda (2.20 @ william Hill) 5 points
Premier League strugglers Bolton Wanderers travel to Serbia to take on Crvena Zvezda on Matchday 4 of Uefa Cup Group F. A win is a must for both teams but realistically speaking both are poor and have failed to impress at any stage of the tournament, Bolton could only manage draws at home to Braga and Aris though they did improve a bit to get a 2 - 2 in Munich against Bayern.
Crvena Zvezda on the other hand have yet to get a point. Like Bolton they saved their best performance for the game against Bayern and were only denied by a late Toni Kroos goal.
With two games left in the group then anything but 3 points tonight will put them out. Its quite surprising that a team that so nearly qualified for the champions league should struggle as they have but thats football for you. It should also be noted that they have a new boss, and since he has came in they have changed their style of play to a more attractive attacking brand, 8 goals in the last 3 league games will testify to this. The mood and atmosphere has taken a turn for the better since Kosanovic departed and in general, team morale has improved.
The thing that swayed me in favor of Crvena tonight is the news of players that new Bolton boss Gary Megson has left at home and wont travel, names such as Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen. Ivan Campo is also illegitimate for the Uefa cup. They have an important league game against Wigan on Sunday and its obvious that the Wigan game has more importance to them.
On their home patch Crvena are very tough to break down and I don’t see Bolton getting too many chances to score tonight, Also the atmosphere will be electric, something Bolton players wont be used to either.
Seeing as both sides have to win it may be foolish to write off either but I feel that the home side will be much more fired up for this game. Bolton seem to have one eye on their vital weekend clash and that’s never a good preparation to have for any game, not to mind an away clash in Europe.
Home win
PICK
Crvena Zvezda (2.20 @ william Hill) 5 points
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Villarreal - Elfsborg UEFA cup
Villarreal - Elfsborg
Villareal entertain Elfsborg of Sweden knowing a win will send them through to the next round. Villareal have been one of the best sides to watch in La Liga this season and they have a solid home record (5 – 1 – 1) with 13 goals scored and 9 conceded, not bad when you look at some of the teams they have played at home so far including Real, Barca and Sevilla. Apart from the 5 – 0 drubbing on match day 2 at the hands of Real Madrid, they have been quite impressive on their home patch as wins over Barcelona and Sevilla will testify.
Elfsborg are bottom of the group after 3 games and know nothing less than 3 points will be good enough to give them a fighting chance of progressing. Realistically though their season is over and they are only playing for pride at this stage. Their domestic season is finished where they finished in 4 th position with an away record that reads (5-4-4) with 16 goals scored and 17 conceded.
It should also be noted that the Swedish league finished at the end of October and they have only had 2 competitive matches since then. They have already visited Spain earlier this season when they were easily defeated 3-0 by Valencia in the Champions League qualifying process.
Team news for Elfsborg is hard to find but for Villareal, G Rossi, Josico and Gonzales are out.
Verdict
Given that Elsborg’s season is over with a few months it’s hard to see them being in good physical shape. There are rumors that Villareal will give some fringe players a run but even at that they should have far too much quality for this Elfsborg side. They were whacked 6 – 1 by Fiorentina in an earlier round and while I don’t think it will be maybe as big a defeat here, it will probably finish 3 – 0 minimum
Home win odds of 1.2 don’t interest me so il take Villareal –2 goals asain handicap, as they should cover this.
PICK
Villareal – 2 asain hdcp ( 2 @ bodog) 6 points
Villareal entertain Elfsborg of Sweden knowing a win will send them through to the next round. Villareal have been one of the best sides to watch in La Liga this season and they have a solid home record (5 – 1 – 1) with 13 goals scored and 9 conceded, not bad when you look at some of the teams they have played at home so far including Real, Barca and Sevilla. Apart from the 5 – 0 drubbing on match day 2 at the hands of Real Madrid, they have been quite impressive on their home patch as wins over Barcelona and Sevilla will testify.
Elfsborg are bottom of the group after 3 games and know nothing less than 3 points will be good enough to give them a fighting chance of progressing. Realistically though their season is over and they are only playing for pride at this stage. Their domestic season is finished where they finished in 4 th position with an away record that reads (5-4-4) with 16 goals scored and 17 conceded.
It should also be noted that the Swedish league finished at the end of October and they have only had 2 competitive matches since then. They have already visited Spain earlier this season when they were easily defeated 3-0 by Valencia in the Champions League qualifying process.
Team news for Elfsborg is hard to find but for Villareal, G Rossi, Josico and Gonzales are out.
Verdict
Given that Elsborg’s season is over with a few months it’s hard to see them being in good physical shape. There are rumors that Villareal will give some fringe players a run but even at that they should have far too much quality for this Elfsborg side. They were whacked 6 – 1 by Fiorentina in an earlier round and while I don’t think it will be maybe as big a defeat here, it will probably finish 3 – 0 minimum
Home win odds of 1.2 don’t interest me so il take Villareal –2 goals asain handicap, as they should cover this.
PICK
Villareal – 2 asain hdcp ( 2 @ bodog) 6 points
Monday, December 3, 2007
Tuesday night action
Bristol City V Ipswich
Only a few weeks back, Bristol were humiliated 6 – 0 by Ipswich. Tomorrow they have a great chance for revenge, Ipswich’s home form has been impeccable and they have only dropped 2 points so far, that coming with a poor 0 – 0 draw with Barnsley at the weekend. On the contrast though their away form has been shocking, yet to record a win and have conceded an average of 2 goals a game.
(0 – 4 – 5) is a poor away record for a team in 8th position
Bristol on the other hand received a timely confidence boost, beating table toppers Watford last Saturday. They sit in 5th place and a win will put them into 3rd place. Some people have said that they are overachieving this season but credit where credit is due, they have played and beaten the likes of Sheff Utd, Southampton and Norwich and have gained impressive results against the likes of West Brom, Wolves and Hull.
Ipswich will travel with the same 18 man squad that drew 0-0. Bristol City manager Gary Johnson has indicated that he is having some tough decisions picking his starting 11. Confidence is high and I think Bristol will have revenge in their minds. Theres odds of 2.4 ish for the home win but il take Bristol level ball here just in case. Odds are 1.73 and that is still a reasonable price in my view
PICK
Bristol - 0 (1.73 @ mansion) 5 points
Only a few weeks back, Bristol were humiliated 6 – 0 by Ipswich. Tomorrow they have a great chance for revenge, Ipswich’s home form has been impeccable and they have only dropped 2 points so far, that coming with a poor 0 – 0 draw with Barnsley at the weekend. On the contrast though their away form has been shocking, yet to record a win and have conceded an average of 2 goals a game.
(0 – 4 – 5) is a poor away record for a team in 8th position
Bristol on the other hand received a timely confidence boost, beating table toppers Watford last Saturday. They sit in 5th place and a win will put them into 3rd place. Some people have said that they are overachieving this season but credit where credit is due, they have played and beaten the likes of Sheff Utd, Southampton and Norwich and have gained impressive results against the likes of West Brom, Wolves and Hull.
Ipswich will travel with the same 18 man squad that drew 0-0. Bristol City manager Gary Johnson has indicated that he is having some tough decisions picking his starting 11. Confidence is high and I think Bristol will have revenge in their minds. Theres odds of 2.4 ish for the home win but il take Bristol level ball here just in case. Odds are 1.73 and that is still a reasonable price in my view
PICK
Bristol - 0 (1.73 @ mansion) 5 points
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Manchester United V Fulham
This is a very important game for Manchester tomorrow evening. They dropped points last week losing 1 – 0 away at Bolton and cant afford not to take 3 points against Fulham. Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all recorded victories at the weekend so falling behind even more would be a terrible blow coming into the Christmas period.
Manchester’s home record is excellent, only 2 points dropped so far and only one goal conceded.
Fulham are not well known for their away record, still winless on the road and barring a miracle its not going to come tomorrow night. They have only conceded 8 goals on their travels though and surely their best option of getting anything from United is to shut up shop at the back and try to keep United out. Easier said than done though as Manchester have scored at home in all but one game this season.
Fulham can be a very frustrating team to play against at times and I’m not so sure that United will waltz this one. I’m not so confident on the winning by many goals but I’m more confident that Manchester can keep another clean sheet. 6 clean sheets so far and Old Trafford isn’t the easiest place to go and play. There can be no more slip ups so we can expect a more commited and disiplined performance from the reds. Vidic and Van Der Sar are back and another clean sheet looks likely.
Pick
Manchester United V Fulham
Both teams to score NO ( 1.72 @ bet365) 5 points
Manchester’s home record is excellent, only 2 points dropped so far and only one goal conceded.
Fulham are not well known for their away record, still winless on the road and barring a miracle its not going to come tomorrow night. They have only conceded 8 goals on their travels though and surely their best option of getting anything from United is to shut up shop at the back and try to keep United out. Easier said than done though as Manchester have scored at home in all but one game this season.
Fulham can be a very frustrating team to play against at times and I’m not so sure that United will waltz this one. I’m not so confident on the winning by many goals but I’m more confident that Manchester can keep another clean sheet. 6 clean sheets so far and Old Trafford isn’t the easiest place to go and play. There can be no more slip ups so we can expect a more commited and disiplined performance from the reds. Vidic and Van Der Sar are back and another clean sheet looks likely.
Pick
Manchester United V Fulham
Both teams to score NO ( 1.72 @ bet365) 5 points
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Saturday 1st December picks
Wolves V Preston North end
Wolves seem to be sneaking up the table unnoticed this year, while all the talk concerns Watford, West Brom and Charlton making speedy returns to the top flight, Wolves seem to be moving in the right direction. Mick Mcarthys side could be described as frustrating to watch at times but theres no doubt that he bought well during the last transfer window. Kevin Foley signed from Luton has proved to be a real hit, both on and off the field and Freddy Eastwood despite being dropped a few times is also a good signing. On the field though, goals have been the big problem. They have averaged about 1 goal per game, though you would expect a team in 4th place to have hit the net more than that. Their trump card has been the defence though, 15 conceded all season, the best defence in the championship.
Last 4 matches (Home)
Wolves - Colchester Utd 1 - 0
Wolves - Barnsley 1 - 0
Wolves - Bristol City 1 - 1
Wolves - Charlton 2 - 0
Preston on the other hand are having a terrible time of it, the departure of Nugent has really hurt them as they depended on him so much for goals. They havent really replaced him and this is reflected in the fact that they have only scored 16 goals so far. At this stage last year they sat in 2nd place and had thumped the likes of Sunderland and Leeds. That seems like a long time ago though and this year will be a dogfight to avoid relegation
Away form is terrible (0 – 2 – 7) 7 goals scored and 17 conceded
Last 4 matches (Away)
2 - 1 Crystal Pal. - Preston
3 - 0 Hull City - Preston
1 - 0 Barnsley - Preston
1 - 1 Sheff Utd - Preston
Verdict.
While Wolves are not prolific goal scorers, they have a teak tough defence. 12 of their games have finished under 2.5 goals. Coupled with the fact that Preston are really struggling to play well and score away from home. I expect Wolves to grind out another win today, maybe worth a small dabble on the 1 – 0 and 2 – 0 scorelines.
Pick
Wolves – 0.5 ( 1.8 @ mansion) 5 points
Wolves to win 1 – 0 (7 @ centrebet) 1 point
Wolves to win 2 – 0 (7.5 @ canbet) 1 point
Wolves seem to be sneaking up the table unnoticed this year, while all the talk concerns Watford, West Brom and Charlton making speedy returns to the top flight, Wolves seem to be moving in the right direction. Mick Mcarthys side could be described as frustrating to watch at times but theres no doubt that he bought well during the last transfer window. Kevin Foley signed from Luton has proved to be a real hit, both on and off the field and Freddy Eastwood despite being dropped a few times is also a good signing. On the field though, goals have been the big problem. They have averaged about 1 goal per game, though you would expect a team in 4th place to have hit the net more than that. Their trump card has been the defence though, 15 conceded all season, the best defence in the championship.
Last 4 matches (Home)
Wolves - Colchester Utd 1 - 0
Wolves - Barnsley 1 - 0
Wolves - Bristol City 1 - 1
Wolves - Charlton 2 - 0
Preston on the other hand are having a terrible time of it, the departure of Nugent has really hurt them as they depended on him so much for goals. They havent really replaced him and this is reflected in the fact that they have only scored 16 goals so far. At this stage last year they sat in 2nd place and had thumped the likes of Sunderland and Leeds. That seems like a long time ago though and this year will be a dogfight to avoid relegation
Away form is terrible (0 – 2 – 7) 7 goals scored and 17 conceded
Last 4 matches (Away)
2 - 1 Crystal Pal. - Preston
3 - 0 Hull City - Preston
1 - 0 Barnsley - Preston
1 - 1 Sheff Utd - Preston
Verdict.
While Wolves are not prolific goal scorers, they have a teak tough defence. 12 of their games have finished under 2.5 goals. Coupled with the fact that Preston are really struggling to play well and score away from home. I expect Wolves to grind out another win today, maybe worth a small dabble on the 1 – 0 and 2 – 0 scorelines.
Pick
Wolves – 0.5 ( 1.8 @ mansion) 5 points
Wolves to win 1 – 0 (7 @ centrebet) 1 point
Wolves to win 2 – 0 (7.5 @ canbet) 1 point
Friday, November 30, 2007
Some saturday previews
Reading V Middlesborough
Reading were one of my favourite teams to back last season, this year though they have been a bit of a let down. Mainly due to a lack of form up front from Kevin Doyle, however they seem to have turned a corner and now look a little more confidant. Sitting in 13th place theres no doubt that their away form is dire with only one point picked from a possible 21. But the home form seems to be back on track. (4-0-3) 3 wins on the bounce at home against Wigan, Derby and Newcastle. Its fair to say none of these 3 teams are world beaters but its also fair to say that Wigan and Newcastle especially have more to offer than this Boro side.
Middlesborough are flirting dangerously with the relegation this year. Home and away form is poor with only 2 games won this year. The signing of Mido earlier in the year hasn’t boosted their strike force and he seems to be out of shape. They haven’t fared well on the road at all (1-1-5) and have scored measly 4 goals and conceded 14. Both of the first and second choice keepers are out injured and R. Turnbull will wearing the number one for this game.
Only once have Reading failed to score at home this year and have managed to score against the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal, surely the weak Boro defence will not keep them out for 90 minutes. On the other hand Boro have really struggled to find the net. This could be the final nail in the coffin for Gareth Southgate. I must admit I’m surprised that there are odds of 2 available for the home win, as I would have been expecting 1.8 or so.
Home win.
Ipswich V Barnsley Town
I must admit at first when I saw the odds available I had to check if I was missing something, 1.7 for a team with a 100% 8 wins from 8 at home???
Playing against a Barnsley side who can be described at best as mediocre away from home. One look at home and away stats for both clubs here tells two very different tales.
Ipswich have the best home record in England, as I said above. 8 home games played, 8 won, 25 goals scored and only 4 conceded. An unbelievable record which inevitably has to come to an end eventually but I cant see it happening against Barnsley.
Barnsley are in 1oth place but this is mainly due to a decent home record, they are very poor away from home, only one team has scored less away goals ( bottom placed Norwich)
Again, one look at their away stats doesn’t make great reading for any potential backers out there. (1-3-5) with only 6 scored and 14 conceded.
skipper Brian Howard and Jamal Campbell-Ryce are out and its hard to see them stopping the Ipswich train. Both teams are similar enough in the sense that they are both strong at home but away are really poor.
I expect a confident Ipswich to get another win tomorrow and will take them –1 on the asian to boost the odds a little, at worst im expecting a 1 goal home win which would mean money back
PICK
Reading –0.5 ( 2.02 @ bet365) 5 points
Ipswich – 1 asian handicap ( 2.12 @ mansion) 6 points
There will be more previews, hopefully posted first thing tomorrow morning so check back.
Reading were one of my favourite teams to back last season, this year though they have been a bit of a let down. Mainly due to a lack of form up front from Kevin Doyle, however they seem to have turned a corner and now look a little more confidant. Sitting in 13th place theres no doubt that their away form is dire with only one point picked from a possible 21. But the home form seems to be back on track. (4-0-3) 3 wins on the bounce at home against Wigan, Derby and Newcastle. Its fair to say none of these 3 teams are world beaters but its also fair to say that Wigan and Newcastle especially have more to offer than this Boro side.
Middlesborough are flirting dangerously with the relegation this year. Home and away form is poor with only 2 games won this year. The signing of Mido earlier in the year hasn’t boosted their strike force and he seems to be out of shape. They haven’t fared well on the road at all (1-1-5) and have scored measly 4 goals and conceded 14. Both of the first and second choice keepers are out injured and R. Turnbull will wearing the number one for this game.
Only once have Reading failed to score at home this year and have managed to score against the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal, surely the weak Boro defence will not keep them out for 90 minutes. On the other hand Boro have really struggled to find the net. This could be the final nail in the coffin for Gareth Southgate. I must admit I’m surprised that there are odds of 2 available for the home win, as I would have been expecting 1.8 or so.
Home win.
Ipswich V Barnsley Town
I must admit at first when I saw the odds available I had to check if I was missing something, 1.7 for a team with a 100% 8 wins from 8 at home???
Playing against a Barnsley side who can be described at best as mediocre away from home. One look at home and away stats for both clubs here tells two very different tales.
Ipswich have the best home record in England, as I said above. 8 home games played, 8 won, 25 goals scored and only 4 conceded. An unbelievable record which inevitably has to come to an end eventually but I cant see it happening against Barnsley.
Barnsley are in 1oth place but this is mainly due to a decent home record, they are very poor away from home, only one team has scored less away goals ( bottom placed Norwich)
Again, one look at their away stats doesn’t make great reading for any potential backers out there. (1-3-5) with only 6 scored and 14 conceded.
skipper Brian Howard and Jamal Campbell-Ryce are out and its hard to see them stopping the Ipswich train. Both teams are similar enough in the sense that they are both strong at home but away are really poor.
I expect a confident Ipswich to get another win tomorrow and will take them –1 on the asian to boost the odds a little, at worst im expecting a 1 goal home win which would mean money back
PICK
Reading –0.5 ( 2.02 @ bet365) 5 points
Ipswich – 1 asian handicap ( 2.12 @ mansion) 6 points
There will be more previews, hopefully posted first thing tomorrow morning so check back.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
November is almost over
November is almost over and its safe to say that once again i am ( and hopefully you are) well in profit. ( full monthly review to follow shortly)
First of all i would like to say, thanks to you who have emailed me to thank me for the picks in recent weeks. I hope you will all be as polite and agreeable when a losing weekend appears!!!
On nights like tonight there was a full round of Uefa cup games and some of you may wonder why i had nothing previewed or picked out for attention.
Quite simply, there are many nights like tonight when nothing appeals to me. I work hard and only make bets if i see that theres a good chance of a winner.
Also in reply to those of you who have asked me to post my picks earlier....
Sometimes its just not possible for me. Time is scarce and unfortunately i don't work near a PC.
However I will make an effort in future to get my stuff done and posted well before KO.
Feel free to email me with any queries or questions
Looking forward to December!
NOVEMBER STATS
Staked = 97 points
Returned = 128.45
Profit = 31.45
Yield = +32.4%
First of all i would like to say, thanks to you who have emailed me to thank me for the picks in recent weeks. I hope you will all be as polite and agreeable when a losing weekend appears!!!
On nights like tonight there was a full round of Uefa cup games and some of you may wonder why i had nothing previewed or picked out for attention.
Quite simply, there are many nights like tonight when nothing appeals to me. I work hard and only make bets if i see that theres a good chance of a winner.
Also in reply to those of you who have asked me to post my picks earlier....
Sometimes its just not possible for me. Time is scarce and unfortunately i don't work near a PC.
However I will make an effort in future to get my stuff done and posted well before KO.
Feel free to email me with any queries or questions
Looking forward to December!
NOVEMBER STATS
Staked = 97 points
Returned = 128.45
Profit = 31.45
Yield = +32.4%
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Tuesday 27th November pick
I could stay here all night and write a long preview about how good Ipswich are at home, but one look at their home stats should say enough. Seven wins from seven, 23 goals scored and only 4 conceded so far is an unbelievable start. They sit in 8th position in the league despite having one of the poorest away records in the league where they have yet to record a win. 8th position, and this is all down to that home record. Like everything else all good runs will have to come to an end but I don’t see it tonight.
Southampton are one of those teams that are very hard to predict, either very good or very bad but its hard to escape that they have conceded the most goals away from home in the league, not exactly inspiring for potential backers. They also have a few injury worries tonight with Centre-back Wayne Thomas a major doubt. Dailly has returned to West Ham from his loan spell. Fellow defenders Darren Powell (calf), Alexander Ostlund (hamstring), Claus Lundekvam (ankle) and Chris Makin (hip) all remain on the sick list.
Southamptons away record coupled with the injuries suggest they are really going to struggle tonight to contain an Ipswich side who have averaged almost three goals in every home game.
Home win looks like a value call and im really surprised that the odds are not lower.
PICK
Ipswich -0.5 (1.88 @ bet365) 6 points
Southampton are one of those teams that are very hard to predict, either very good or very bad but its hard to escape that they have conceded the most goals away from home in the league, not exactly inspiring for potential backers. They also have a few injury worries tonight with Centre-back Wayne Thomas a major doubt. Dailly has returned to West Ham from his loan spell. Fellow defenders Darren Powell (calf), Alexander Ostlund (hamstring), Claus Lundekvam (ankle) and Chris Makin (hip) all remain on the sick list.
Southamptons away record coupled with the injuries suggest they are really going to struggle tonight to contain an Ipswich side who have averaged almost three goals in every home game.
Home win looks like a value call and im really surprised that the odds are not lower.
PICK
Ipswich -0.5 (1.88 @ bet365) 6 points
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Saturday 24th of November
I may be wrong on this but im not going to go big on any of the premieship teams this weekend. Too many of them had players away on international duty so its a bit hard to know if some of them can be 100% fit and focused, especially after long flights, the various emotions of qualifying or elimination so i think the big games should be treated with caution.
Darlington V Wycombe
Darlingtons defence has been a revelation so far this season. 11 clean sheets in 16 league games is without doubt an impressive record to have on your side. This has been one of the factors which has pushed them to third place and they will be looking to build on that with another 3 points today. Any team with a 100 % record at home has to be respected and they also have the best home record in the league
Darlingtons last 4 home games
Darlington - Shrewsbury 2 - 0
Darlington - Chesterfield 0 - 0
Darlington - Stockport 4 - 0
Darlington - Rochdale 1 - 1
Wycome are also a team who have promotion ideas. However with a team so high in the table its a bit of a surprise to see that their away record is quite poor and they are without an away since late september. They are not without problems too with Striker Jermaine Easter refusing to play for the club, leaving them short of attacking options up front.
Wycombe's last 4 away
0 - 0Wrexham - Wycombe
2 - 2 Chester City - Wycombe
2 - 1Peterborough - Wycombe
2 - 1Barnet - Wycombe
With Wycombe being one of the poorer away sides in the division id have to side with Darlington keeping yet another clean sheet and grinding out another home win and a probable 1 - 0 victory.
The other teams that catch my eye are Nottingham Forest to beat Crewe at home. Forest have a great home record and have only conceded 2 in their last 6 home games. With 1st and 2nd placed Carlisle and Orient facing tricky away ties an win today will put Forest top which should be motivation enough for them. Crewe have only kept one clean sheet on the road so far. I dont see that extending today.
PICKS
Darlington-0.5 (2.07 @canbet) 4 points
Nottm Forest (1.67 @ bluesq) 6 points
Good luck
Darlington V Wycombe
Darlingtons defence has been a revelation so far this season. 11 clean sheets in 16 league games is without doubt an impressive record to have on your side. This has been one of the factors which has pushed them to third place and they will be looking to build on that with another 3 points today. Any team with a 100 % record at home has to be respected and they also have the best home record in the league
Darlingtons last 4 home games
Darlington - Shrewsbury 2 - 0
Darlington - Chesterfield 0 - 0
Darlington - Stockport 4 - 0
Darlington - Rochdale 1 - 1
Wycome are also a team who have promotion ideas. However with a team so high in the table its a bit of a surprise to see that their away record is quite poor and they are without an away since late september. They are not without problems too with Striker Jermaine Easter refusing to play for the club, leaving them short of attacking options up front.
Wycombe's last 4 away
0 - 0Wrexham - Wycombe
2 - 2 Chester City - Wycombe
2 - 1Peterborough - Wycombe
2 - 1Barnet - Wycombe
With Wycombe being one of the poorer away sides in the division id have to side with Darlington keeping yet another clean sheet and grinding out another home win and a probable 1 - 0 victory.
The other teams that catch my eye are Nottingham Forest to beat Crewe at home. Forest have a great home record and have only conceded 2 in their last 6 home games. With 1st and 2nd placed Carlisle and Orient facing tricky away ties an win today will put Forest top which should be motivation enough for them. Crewe have only kept one clean sheet on the road so far. I dont see that extending today.
PICKS
Darlington-0.5 (2.07 @canbet) 4 points
Nottm Forest (1.67 @ bluesq) 6 points
Good luck
Friday, November 23, 2007
Is the time right to oppose Manchester United?
Bolton Wanderers V Manchester United
In my honest opinion I think Manchester United are priced up far too short here. Lets look at the team first before looking through Uniteds recent form. United will be without Rooney, Scholes and G Neville through injury. Tevez is a doubt as he may be jet lagged after playing for Argentina in the recent world cup qualifiers. And finally, Vidic is still on international duty. Manchester have been in cracking form of late, Tevez and Rooney have been terrorising defences and scoring goals hasn’t been a problem with plenty of goals home and away in recent weeks. Ronaldo has also been playing well and has chipped in with a few goals.
Manchester Uniteds last 4 away games.
2 - 2 Arsenal - Man United
1 - 4 Aston Villa - Man United
0 - 1 Birmingham City - Man United
0 - 1 Everton - Man United
Bolton are having an awful year so far, They lack any real creativity going forward and scoring goals has been a problem. The only teams to have scored less than Bolton are Wigan and Derby which says it all really. So why do i think they can surprise here?
Boltons last 4 home games
Bolton - Middlesbrough 0 – 0
Bolton - Aston Villa 1 – 1
Bolton - Chelsea 0 – 1
Bolton - Tottenham 1 - 1
Despite all this I feel they should be able to give Man U a good game of it tomorrow, the reasons being,
Bolton have Anelka and Hadji-Diouf back so they wont be lacking up front.
They have a full squad to pick from.
I don’t think the international break will have affected and disrupted the Bolton squad as much as Man Utd’s.
Nobody is expecting much from Bolton tomorrow and this is the kind of game they will love. Players always like to be the underdog and and every team ups their performance for visitors of the callibre of Manchester United.
Bolton's home record has been nothing to boast about so far but United's fine run has to end sometime and Bolton have to start winning at home eventually.
With the few players that man U are missing I feel theres no better time to oppose them. General odds of 1.4ish are far to low for me on the away win. Im in two minds how to follow Bolton here though, I think a straight win may be pushing my luck a bit too far so il take them + 1 on the asian handicap and worst case scenario should get the money back if United sneak it.
Good luck
PICK
Bolton +1 asian handicap ( 2.21 @ betsson) 6 points
I will have some more picks either tonight or early tomorrow so stay tuned!
In my honest opinion I think Manchester United are priced up far too short here. Lets look at the team first before looking through Uniteds recent form. United will be without Rooney, Scholes and G Neville through injury. Tevez is a doubt as he may be jet lagged after playing for Argentina in the recent world cup qualifiers. And finally, Vidic is still on international duty. Manchester have been in cracking form of late, Tevez and Rooney have been terrorising defences and scoring goals hasn’t been a problem with plenty of goals home and away in recent weeks. Ronaldo has also been playing well and has chipped in with a few goals.
Manchester Uniteds last 4 away games.
2 - 2 Arsenal - Man United
1 - 4 Aston Villa - Man United
0 - 1 Birmingham City - Man United
0 - 1 Everton - Man United
Bolton are having an awful year so far, They lack any real creativity going forward and scoring goals has been a problem. The only teams to have scored less than Bolton are Wigan and Derby which says it all really. So why do i think they can surprise here?
Boltons last 4 home games
Bolton - Middlesbrough 0 – 0
Bolton - Aston Villa 1 – 1
Bolton - Chelsea 0 – 1
Bolton - Tottenham 1 - 1
Despite all this I feel they should be able to give Man U a good game of it tomorrow, the reasons being,
Bolton have Anelka and Hadji-Diouf back so they wont be lacking up front.
They have a full squad to pick from.
I don’t think the international break will have affected and disrupted the Bolton squad as much as Man Utd’s.
Nobody is expecting much from Bolton tomorrow and this is the kind of game they will love. Players always like to be the underdog and and every team ups their performance for visitors of the callibre of Manchester United.
Bolton's home record has been nothing to boast about so far but United's fine run has to end sometime and Bolton have to start winning at home eventually.
With the few players that man U are missing I feel theres no better time to oppose them. General odds of 1.4ish are far to low for me on the away win. Im in two minds how to follow Bolton here though, I think a straight win may be pushing my luck a bit too far so il take them + 1 on the asian handicap and worst case scenario should get the money back if United sneak it.
Good luck
PICK
Bolton +1 asian handicap ( 2.21 @ betsson) 6 points
I will have some more picks either tonight or early tomorrow so stay tuned!
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
A general update
Well, im dam glad i stayed away from any bets tonight. England sensationally lose 3 - 2 at home to Croatia to leave them at home and Russia to go through instead. And Holland losing away to Belarus? And Germany failing to beat Wales at home, though i suspect that was a tactical move to finish in 2nd spot. So all in all a few strange results and like i said, im glad i gave it a miss.
Back to the blog though and last nights win pushes me closer to my aim of 100 points profit. Which is not bad considering how long ive been posting.
With a few days left in the month im hoping to get to that mark before the 1st of December but only time will tell.
Anyway theres a round of games from England on Saturday and Sunday so check back for updates. Hopefully il get some selections posted tomorrow or Friday evening.
Stay safe Gents.
Back to the blog though and last nights win pushes me closer to my aim of 100 points profit. Which is not bad considering how long ive been posting.
With a few days left in the month im hoping to get to that mark before the 1st of December but only time will tell.
Anyway theres a round of games from England on Saturday and Sunday so check back for updates. Hopefully il get some selections posted tomorrow or Friday evening.
Stay safe Gents.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Tuesday 20th November pick
Things are a little quiet these days with a round of internationals to be played tommorrow night.
Tonights bet is from Ireland and im going with Finn harps to beat Waterford in the playoffs 1st leg. I watched Finn Harps a few weeks back and while they are not the strongest of teams, they are fairly good at home. They are unbeaten in the last 7 home playoff games and have only conceded 1 goal in said games. It is a long journey for Waterford and despite not losing in their last 6 games they have struggled to score goals. It should also be noted that they are missing 3 players tonight.
I think Finn Harps should have enough quality to take advantage of the home venue tonight and should get a win.
PICKS
Finn Harps - 0.5 goals ( 1.83 @ bet365) 6 points
Tonights bet is from Ireland and im going with Finn harps to beat Waterford in the playoffs 1st leg. I watched Finn Harps a few weeks back and while they are not the strongest of teams, they are fairly good at home. They are unbeaten in the last 7 home playoff games and have only conceded 1 goal in said games. It is a long journey for Waterford and despite not losing in their last 6 games they have struggled to score goals. It should also be noted that they are missing 3 players tonight.
I think Finn Harps should have enough quality to take advantage of the home venue tonight and should get a win.
PICKS
Finn Harps - 0.5 goals ( 1.83 @ bet365) 6 points
Saturday, November 17, 2007
More Euro 2008 games
Wales V Ireland
Not much to say on this one really. Neither can qualify and both are fighting for the third place, which will see a better seeding for the world cup draw.
Both have had a turbulent qualifying campaign. Irish manager Steven Staunton was given the sack a few weeks back and caretaker manager Don Givens is in charge for this one.
Wales boss John Toshack is under extreme pressure also and he may be out of a job shortly.
Back to the game though and Wales will be without Craig Bellamy and Gareth Bale, Koumas is also a doubt. The absence of Bellamy especially will severely dent the Welsh attack, as they often look pretty toothless up front without him.
Ireland have a strong squad to chose from and several players have a point to prove here. Their away form has been poor but on saying that their home form hasn’t been much to brag about either. Some players such as Keane and O Shea have come under fierce pressure from the Irish media and I expect an improved performance from them today.
Givens has selected McGeady on the wing, which would indicate that he is going for an attacking performance. Also Ireland won the reverse fixture 1 – 0. I don’t think it will be pretty to watch but I think Ireland have slightly more in terms of quality and may once again get a 1 – 0. With all the other games on tv today im sure there will be much better games to watch, for me though il take Ireland on level ball
PICKS
Ireland level ball ( 1.8 @ bluesq) 6 points
Not much to say on this one really. Neither can qualify and both are fighting for the third place, which will see a better seeding for the world cup draw.
Both have had a turbulent qualifying campaign. Irish manager Steven Staunton was given the sack a few weeks back and caretaker manager Don Givens is in charge for this one.
Wales boss John Toshack is under extreme pressure also and he may be out of a job shortly.
Back to the game though and Wales will be without Craig Bellamy and Gareth Bale, Koumas is also a doubt. The absence of Bellamy especially will severely dent the Welsh attack, as they often look pretty toothless up front without him.
Ireland have a strong squad to chose from and several players have a point to prove here. Their away form has been poor but on saying that their home form hasn’t been much to brag about either. Some players such as Keane and O Shea have come under fierce pressure from the Irish media and I expect an improved performance from them today.
Givens has selected McGeady on the wing, which would indicate that he is going for an attacking performance. Also Ireland won the reverse fixture 1 – 0. I don’t think it will be pretty to watch but I think Ireland have slightly more in terms of quality and may once again get a 1 – 0. With all the other games on tv today im sure there will be much better games to watch, for me though il take Ireland on level ball
PICKS
Ireland level ball ( 1.8 @ bluesq) 6 points
Friday, November 16, 2007
Euro 2008 qualifiers
Israel V Russia
99% of English fans will be watching and cheering on Israel in this one. This game is make or break for both Russia and England as a win for the Russians will virtually seal qualification for Euro 2008.
Israel are out of contention so its very hard to see how motivated they will be for this one. Now usually the thought of putting one over Russia would be enough to motivate any team but theres has been whispers of "fix" all week. Personally im not convinced but i still think Russia should have enough quality to get 3 vital points.
Russia's away form
12/09/07 L 0-3 v England
06/06/07 D 0-0 v Croatia
24/03/07 W 2-0 v Estonia
15/11/06 W 2-0 v Macedonia
Russia have a fully fit squad to chose from, Akinfeev the keeper who was the only doubt, is back to fitness.
Israel on the other hand are playing only for pride. Its difficult to gauge just how up for this game the Israel team will actually be. Liverpool midfielder Benayoun sustained an adductor tear on Saturday and is definitely out. He will be a major loss in the middle of the park as Israel need his creativity going forward.
Israel Home Form
28/03/07 W 4-0 v Estonia
24/03/07 D 0-0 v England
15/11/06 L 3-4 v Croatia
06/09/06 W 4-1 v Andorra
Verdict
Theres lots of talk about the Israel team rolling over and letting Russia win but i dont see it being as clear cut as that. Im always a little weary whenever these type of match present themselves. On saying that, given the circumstances and that Russia have a full squad to chose from and a win will almost seal them a place in Euro 2008 i think they will do enough to win. The odds on the Russian win is priced up at about 1.5 but theres not enough value there for me. I think it will be tight and maybe 1 - 0 or so to Russia.
Draw at HT and the Russian win at FT is the pick for me here. I think Israel will try keep it tight at the back and it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see a goal until after the 70th minute.
Good luck.
PICK
Draw HT / Russia FT (x/2) ( 4.5 @ ladbrokes) 2 points
99% of English fans will be watching and cheering on Israel in this one. This game is make or break for both Russia and England as a win for the Russians will virtually seal qualification for Euro 2008.
Israel are out of contention so its very hard to see how motivated they will be for this one. Now usually the thought of putting one over Russia would be enough to motivate any team but theres has been whispers of "fix" all week. Personally im not convinced but i still think Russia should have enough quality to get 3 vital points.
Russia's away form
12/09/07 L 0-3 v England
06/06/07 D 0-0 v Croatia
24/03/07 W 2-0 v Estonia
15/11/06 W 2-0 v Macedonia
Russia have a fully fit squad to chose from, Akinfeev the keeper who was the only doubt, is back to fitness.
Israel on the other hand are playing only for pride. Its difficult to gauge just how up for this game the Israel team will actually be. Liverpool midfielder Benayoun sustained an adductor tear on Saturday and is definitely out. He will be a major loss in the middle of the park as Israel need his creativity going forward.
Israel Home Form
28/03/07 W 4-0 v Estonia
24/03/07 D 0-0 v England
15/11/06 L 3-4 v Croatia
06/09/06 W 4-1 v Andorra
Verdict
Theres lots of talk about the Israel team rolling over and letting Russia win but i dont see it being as clear cut as that. Im always a little weary whenever these type of match present themselves. On saying that, given the circumstances and that Russia have a full squad to chose from and a win will almost seal them a place in Euro 2008 i think they will do enough to win. The odds on the Russian win is priced up at about 1.5 but theres not enough value there for me. I think it will be tight and maybe 1 - 0 or so to Russia.
Draw at HT and the Russian win at FT is the pick for me here. I think Israel will try keep it tight at the back and it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see a goal until after the 70th minute.
Good luck.
PICK
Draw HT / Russia FT (x/2) ( 4.5 @ ladbrokes) 2 points
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Sunday Picks
Greetings people.
Once again im very stuck for time so will keep it brief.
Yesterday i didnt get the chance to study any fixtures so it was a day of no betting for me, today only two catch my eye, and both for small stakes only.
PICKS
Porstmouth win (2 @ skybet) 3 points
Bolton win (2.15 @ betsson) 3 points
good luck, will try to get back online at some stage if possible.
Once again im very stuck for time so will keep it brief.
Yesterday i didnt get the chance to study any fixtures so it was a day of no betting for me, today only two catch my eye, and both for small stakes only.
PICKS
Porstmouth win (2 @ skybet) 3 points
Bolton win (2.15 @ betsson) 3 points
good luck, will try to get back online at some stage if possible.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Wednesday 7th October picks
Unfortunately i have to up and leave for Italy for a few days so i will be pc restricted in the next few days. Still check back for updates as il do my best to post all picks in the next 7 days or so.
Onto tonights picks
PICKS
Manchester Utd clean sheet ( 1.72 @ betfair) 4 points
Barcelona clean sheet ( 1.72 @ betfair) 4 points
Barcelona - 1.75 ah (1.92 @ betdirect) 3 points
Lisbon V Roma over 2.5 goals ( 2.15 @ mansion) 3 points
Onto tonights picks
PICKS
Manchester Utd clean sheet ( 1.72 @ betfair) 4 points
Barcelona clean sheet ( 1.72 @ betfair) 4 points
Barcelona - 1.75 ah (1.92 @ betdirect) 3 points
Lisbon V Roma over 2.5 goals ( 2.15 @ mansion) 3 points
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Tuesday 6th November picks
Theres a host of champions league action and a full bill of the championship tonight.
Champions league games though are a little hard to pick value from so small stakes only tonight.
My sincere apologies for the lack of information with the picks but time is not on my side these days.
Tommorrow il be back with some more picks and hopefully a bit of info to go with the picks.
PICKS
Liverpool -1.75 ah( 1.86 @ mansion) 5 points
Chelsea -0.5 (2.10 @ mansion) 2 points
QPR + 0 ah (1.76 @ canbet) 5 points
Carlisle +0 ah (2.16 @ canbet) 3 points
Champions league games though are a little hard to pick value from so small stakes only tonight.
My sincere apologies for the lack of information with the picks but time is not on my side these days.
Tommorrow il be back with some more picks and hopefully a bit of info to go with the picks.
PICKS
Liverpool -1.75 ah( 1.86 @ mansion) 5 points
Chelsea -0.5 (2.10 @ mansion) 2 points
QPR + 0 ah (1.76 @ canbet) 5 points
Carlisle +0 ah (2.16 @ canbet) 3 points
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