West Brom V Arsenal
Mowbray the Baggies boss has already admitted that he won’t change the style of play that his side uses and this may be a good thing for this clash.
Arsenal may not have scored in a while but it’s only a matter of time before they start converting some of the many chances that have been falling there way. Van Persie could have had at least 3 against Fulham and at least they are creating chances as opposed to sitting back and waiting for things to happen. Its do or die now for West Brom as they sit bottom of the table 4 points adrift of Stoke and Boro. At this stage they have nothing to lose and they have to attack teams. To be fair to them they have tried to do this and have not sat back and tried to play for draws as some teams have. Some of their games have been riddled with goals and there have been 10 goals in the last 2 games at the Hawthorns.
Verdict
I see a few goals in this. Personally I wouldn’t touch the odds on the Arsenal win but West Brom will give away plenty of chances and Arsenal have to score eventually. Likewise Arsenal gave Fulham plenty of chances at the weekend and West Brom are a team that can punish them on their own turf. Over 2.5 for me.
PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2 @ eurobet) 4 points
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Plymouth V Watford
The championship is a complete betting mine for me this year so only small stake from now on as I don’t really trust anyone. I said at the weekend that If Wolves lose then Brum and Reading usually lose too and so it happened. Unfortunately I was on them to win so that wasn’t much good for me. Tonight I fancy them all to lose but don’t really advise getting too involves on any of them.
Plymouth beat Wolves at Molineux at the weekend but were a little lucky to hold on for the entire game. Wolves created enough but Plymouth who scored after 38 seconds defended their lead very well and took a very valuable 3 points down south. However they are in a poor run of form at the moment and cant seem to keep a clean sheet at home to save themselves. They have lost 3 of the last 4 at home conceding 10 goals in the process scoring just 3.
Watford are playing some great stuff at the moment and have won the last 3 games each by two goals to nil. They have pulled themselves out of the danger zone but still have much work to do before they are safe. Admittedly away from home they have not been as convincing but are in a good position going into this game on the back of 3 game winning streak which has generated confidence amongst the players. Look out for Tamas Priskin, who has bagged five goals in the last six matches and will looking to add to that tally on Saturday.
Verdict
It should be tight but ive been more impressed with the visitors in the last few games. They are playing with confidence and scoring goals. Plymouth have trouble keeping it tight at the back and I can’t see them keeping Watford out. Watford draw no bet for me
PICK
Watford draw no bet (2.10 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
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Bristol Rovers v Brighton
I had already marked this down as a home win before I found out about all the Brighton players missing through injury. At least 11 first team players are reported to be out, “Definitely sidelined after picking up injuries at the weekend are full-back Jim McNulty - who is in hospital after suffering a ruptured kidney - centre-half Tommy Elphick (ankle) and skipper Nicky Forster (calf).
Striker Glenn Murray and defender Kerry Mayo are back in training following hernia operations but will not be ready, and goalkeeper Michel Kuipers is out for a fortnight with a hamstring injury.
Gary Hart is a couple of weeks away with a knee injury and fellow forward Jonny Dixon is still missing with a thigh strain.
Defenders Colin Hawkins (hamstring) and Adam Hinshelwood (calf) complete the roll call, although neither have been ruled out yet.
Adam Virgo is still suspended but David Livermore is back from a ban and loan signings Lloyd Owusu and Matt Heath will be added to the squad.”
Ouch, that means there will be a new look side on view at Bristol.
Rovers are in mid table but cruising along nicely and recorded a decent 1 – 1 draw at Carlisle over the weekend. They are picking up points and heading in the right direction and are generally a decent outfit at home with a good record against the bottom half of the table.
Verdict
Its late, im tired and I won’t go into too much detail but I already had Bristol Rovers down as a home win before reading about Brightons problems. Brighton were shocking at the weekend losing 4 – 0 at home to lowly Crewe and surely Rovers will have far too much for them tonight.
Can’t see the odds lasting too long either, they have already dropped to a low of 1.57 at bet365 but can still be got at 1.75 @ betsense
PICKS
Bristol Rovers (1.75 @ betsense) 5 points
Without sounding greedy it may also be worth a pinch on the correct scorelines
3 - 0 (15 @ skybet) 1 point
4 - 0 (40 @ expekt) 1 point
5 - 0 (81 @ boylesports) 1 point
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Crewe V Carlisle
Crewe are on a decent run of results at the moment and are 4 wins out of the last 4. They have also won the last 4 at home and that run of form has seen them pull out of the relegation zone. Another win will pull them level on points with tonight’s visitor’s Carlisle. Carlisle are slipping a little and 1 point from the last possible 9 has left them living dangerously. Now is not the time of the year to be letting points slip as teams such as Crewe are picking up points and teams may find themselves in deep trouble before they realise it.
Carlisle have a good few injury worries with top-scorer Danny Graham, who limped out of the 1-1 draw with Bristol Rovers at the weekend rated very doubtful. Added to that, defender Danny Livesey as well midfielders Jeff Smith and Marc Bridge-Wilkinson will miss out and Evan Horwood is also sidelined with a knee problem.
Verdict
Crewe are on a good run and have won the last two games by four and two goals to nil. Given the confidence that they will have from that and the injury worries that Carlisle have. Il go for the home win and give the ¼ ball away.
PICK
Crewe –0.25 (1.9 @10bet) 4 points
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Southend V Millwall
Im a little surprised at the odds here because it’s the hosts that are in the better form and picking up the better results at the moment. They won 2 – 1 at Peterborough at the weekend, a fantastic result considering that only two teams have gone to Peterborough and won this season. With the bottom of the table being fairly congested its important that Southend keep picking up the points and they could almost be considered safe at this stage.
Nonetheless expect nothing less than a committed performance as they will look to keep another clean sheets having collected 3 in the last 4 at home. They have won the last 3 on the trot and are in that winning mood at the moment.
Millwall are very erratic and hard to gauge. They probably will be glad to get away from the Den as they have lost a few there lately and are under pressure to get a few results under their belt. That playoff spot is starting to look a little shaky now and they will look to improve on recent away form where they have picked up a few wins and seem to find it easier to score.
PICK
Millwall have been better on their travels recently but you can’t ignore the confidence and good run of results that Southend have had. I have a slight feeling for the draw here but may just go with Southend draw no bet as I see them sneaking it.
PICK
Southend draw no bet (1.82 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
Oldham V Leeds
Oldham V Leeds
This should be a decent game with both sides looking for 3 points to further their chances of consolidating that playoff spot.
Both are coming off decent wins at the weekend though arguably it was Oldham who were a bit more impressive. They surrendered a 2 – 0 lead to Millwall and were 2 – 2 heading into the late stages of the game before a late Taylor strike earned them valuable 3 points.
Oldham are pretty strong at home where they have only been beaten twice this season. After a 2 – 0 defeat to Bristol Rovers last time out they will be keen to get back to winning ways at Boundary Park.. Interestingly they have a good record against the top sides and are undefeated to any of the top 6 this season.
Leeds were also 3 – 2 winners and like Oldham they had a 2 –0 lead before letting Scunthorpe back into the game. Luckily for them Jermaine Beckford is fit at the moment and he is vital to their cause. He chipped in with 2 on Saturday and if they hope to have any luck tonight then he is the man to do the damage. Leeds have taken zero points from the last 3 away games and more alarmingly have failed to score in those 3 games. Their away form is very unpredictable and they need to start picking up a few more points away from Elland Road if they want to get a top 6 finish.
Verdict
This one is tricky to call, Leeds need a win just as much as Oldham and it will be an interesting test for Oldham’s boss John Sheridan who spent many years at Leeds and is still a fans favourite. You get the feeling that maybe both would settle for a draw if they were offered it right now. Losing would be a real kick in the teeth for either side and if the game is level entering the 60th to 70th minute then I don’t expect either team to risk everything going forward, and settle for a point apiece. For the stats lovers out there, Leeds are now 11 games without a draw so they are due one!
PICK
Draw (3.4 @ coral) 3 points
This should be a decent game with both sides looking for 3 points to further their chances of consolidating that playoff spot.
Both are coming off decent wins at the weekend though arguably it was Oldham who were a bit more impressive. They surrendered a 2 – 0 lead to Millwall and were 2 – 2 heading into the late stages of the game before a late Taylor strike earned them valuable 3 points.
Oldham are pretty strong at home where they have only been beaten twice this season. After a 2 – 0 defeat to Bristol Rovers last time out they will be keen to get back to winning ways at Boundary Park.. Interestingly they have a good record against the top sides and are undefeated to any of the top 6 this season.
Leeds were also 3 – 2 winners and like Oldham they had a 2 –0 lead before letting Scunthorpe back into the game. Luckily for them Jermaine Beckford is fit at the moment and he is vital to their cause. He chipped in with 2 on Saturday and if they hope to have any luck tonight then he is the man to do the damage. Leeds have taken zero points from the last 3 away games and more alarmingly have failed to score in those 3 games. Their away form is very unpredictable and they need to start picking up a few more points away from Elland Road if they want to get a top 6 finish.
Verdict
This one is tricky to call, Leeds need a win just as much as Oldham and it will be an interesting test for Oldham’s boss John Sheridan who spent many years at Leeds and is still a fans favourite. You get the feeling that maybe both would settle for a draw if they were offered it right now. Losing would be a real kick in the teeth for either side and if the game is level entering the 60th to 70th minute then I don’t expect either team to risk everything going forward, and settle for a point apiece. For the stats lovers out there, Leeds are now 11 games without a draw so they are due one!
PICK
Draw (3.4 @ coral) 3 points
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Premiership on Saturday
Chelsea V Wigan
Looking at the premiership coupon its hard to see any real value. Arsenal are too short and theres not too many other angles on that game so il go with Chelsea. Again, the price is very short but Chelsea do look like home bankers. They have struggled a bit recently but new gaffer Hiddink has got two massive wins since he came and maybe things are on the way up again for them. The real problem has been scoring goals. Their defence has been mean enough but goals are the Achilles heal. Drogba is a shadow of the player he was and Anelka is now the main man and the top scorer. Since Liverpool beat their unbeaten record a few months back, Chelsea look like their confidence has been rattles. Luckily for them, a new manager, some good results and the season may yet get back on track.
Wigan have been struggling lately in the Premier League but considering the amount of players that have left the club its hardly surprising. They still have a good ranking in the table and are most definitely safe but where do they go from here? They wont get into Europe and wont go down so from now on I guess its all about securing that mid table position and giving the fans something to cheer about. Wigan drew their last four games, while the last three were goalless draws. Bruce realises that they are not the best going forward but is playing to his strengths and they are a tough side to break down. Mido and Valencia are doubtful but otherwise Bruce has a full squad to chose from.
Verdict
Wigan will come to defend, Chelsea really need the win and need to keep the pressure on Liverpool for that second place. They have the players and just need to get it right. One of the days they will click and destroy a team 4 or 5 nil. It wont happen today but thy should still be good enough to win this 1 or 2 - 0
PICK
Chelsea to win to nil (1.83 @ skybet) 4 points
Anelka 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ VC) 1 point
Looking at the premiership coupon its hard to see any real value. Arsenal are too short and theres not too many other angles on that game so il go with Chelsea. Again, the price is very short but Chelsea do look like home bankers. They have struggled a bit recently but new gaffer Hiddink has got two massive wins since he came and maybe things are on the way up again for them. The real problem has been scoring goals. Their defence has been mean enough but goals are the Achilles heal. Drogba is a shadow of the player he was and Anelka is now the main man and the top scorer. Since Liverpool beat their unbeaten record a few months back, Chelsea look like their confidence has been rattles. Luckily for them, a new manager, some good results and the season may yet get back on track.
Wigan have been struggling lately in the Premier League but considering the amount of players that have left the club its hardly surprising. They still have a good ranking in the table and are most definitely safe but where do they go from here? They wont get into Europe and wont go down so from now on I guess its all about securing that mid table position and giving the fans something to cheer about. Wigan drew their last four games, while the last three were goalless draws. Bruce realises that they are not the best going forward but is playing to his strengths and they are a tough side to break down. Mido and Valencia are doubtful but otherwise Bruce has a full squad to chose from.
Verdict
Wigan will come to defend, Chelsea really need the win and need to keep the pressure on Liverpool for that second place. They have the players and just need to get it right. One of the days they will click and destroy a team 4 or 5 nil. It wont happen today but thy should still be good enough to win this 1 or 2 - 0
PICK
Chelsea to win to nil (1.83 @ skybet) 4 points
Anelka 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ VC) 1 point
Championship on Saturday
Wolves V Plymouth
It seems that Wolves are doing their very best to throw it all away. A poor run of form has seen them lose any points advantage they had but they are lucky as Reading and Birmingham are also failing to capitalise. It seems that if one of these win, then they all win and if one loses that they all seem to drop points. Wolves are still a decent outfit and not turned over to easy at Molineaux. Luckily for them Plymouth are heading southwards themselves and 3 defeats in the last 4 and a pretty poor away record is hurting them.
Wolves are on a bad run themselves but importantly are scoring goals, its just defending where the problem lies. Plymouth though are not free scoring enough to cause problems to the Wolves defence
Verdict
Wolves finally have to get back on track and should have too much firepower for a goal shy Plymouth today. The odds are nothing to shout about but a worthwhile addition to any acca
PICK
Wolves win (1.53 @ paddy power) 6 points
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Reading V Nottingham forest
Reading like Wolves are in a bit of a rut at the moment but it can only be a matter of time before they start to play like they are capable of. Their bad run has coincided with a bad patch from Kevin Doyle and he will be fairly eager to get back on the scoresheet and get the team going again. Despite struggling for goals, Steve Coppell’s men are managing to pick up points due to a tough defence that kept three consecutive clean sheets prior to the game against Bristol City. As with Wolves, Reading have a great chance to get 3 points today and mainly because of their opposition. Forest are sliding at the moment and are five league matches without victory. Last weeks 3 – 1 defeat to Derby will have knocked the stuffing out of them and their defence has opened up lately having conceded 12 goals in six matches.
Verdict
Reading are the closest to a premiership side in the championship and are due a bit of good fortune in front of the posts. Forest have conceded a few too many lately to suggest they can make it difficult for Coppells men. Reading to win 2 – 0
PICK
Reading (1.62 @ ladbrokes) 6 points
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Swansea V Charlton
Swansea may have been knocked out of the FA cup midweek but gained a lot of admirers for the way they played against their Premiership opponents. Now that the dream is over they will have got a taste for the lime light and will be keen to push on and secure a play off spot. They attack quite well, score plenty of goals and have a strong home record. Jason Scotland is having a fine season and has 14 goals in his last 15 appearances. If they don’t make it to the premiership this year, he probably will. They are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment winning the last 4 at home scoring 12 goals in the process.
Charlton have fallen a long way from the heights of the premiership a few short seasons ago and at this stage seem resigned to a place in league 1 next season. They have been scoring goals but the main problem has been in defence where they have conceded more goals than anyone else this season. 55 goals left in, that’s 1 to 2 a game. The 0 – 0 draw last time out was their first clean sheet in 12 games and it’s hard to see them keeping a rampant Swansea at bay for 90 minutes.
Verdict
Swansea are just getting too many goals at the moment. Although defeated during the week, their confidence is sky high and at home they are a match for any team. They have beaten the best in the league at home and should take another 3 points here in their bid for the premiership.
PICK
Swansea (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points
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Bristol City V Blackpool
Bristol have made some major progress at the club since Christmas rising from 18th to fifth in the Championship table. Last weeks 2 – 0 win at Reading further underlined their confidence and they have now won 8 of the last 10.
At home recently they are just as strong and have found their scoring boots scoring 2 a game in the last 4. When you get into the habit of winning games, confidence rises, players feel comfortable within themselves and good results follow. That’s whats happening at Bristol City and though many tipped them to go down this year it looks now like they are well in with a shout to make the playoffs and give Lordburt a day out.
Blackpool are struggling for points and having to scrap for everything they can. They are unpredictable to say the least and an example of this was beating Brum a few weeks back 2 – 0 only to be hammered 3 – 0 by QPR shortly afterwards. On the road they are just as erratic and every now and then spring a good result which is just enough to keep their head above water. They have a few injuries and suspension problems today so are weakened in one or two areas.
Verdict
Bristol City have the players to win this game comfortably. If the “good” Blackpool turn up on the day then they might have trouble with them but if they are serious about a top 6 finish then these are the kind of games they should be winning, especially at home.
PICK
Bristol City (1.77 @ pinnacle) 5 points
It seems that Wolves are doing their very best to throw it all away. A poor run of form has seen them lose any points advantage they had but they are lucky as Reading and Birmingham are also failing to capitalise. It seems that if one of these win, then they all win and if one loses that they all seem to drop points. Wolves are still a decent outfit and not turned over to easy at Molineaux. Luckily for them Plymouth are heading southwards themselves and 3 defeats in the last 4 and a pretty poor away record is hurting them.
Wolves are on a bad run themselves but importantly are scoring goals, its just defending where the problem lies. Plymouth though are not free scoring enough to cause problems to the Wolves defence
Verdict
Wolves finally have to get back on track and should have too much firepower for a goal shy Plymouth today. The odds are nothing to shout about but a worthwhile addition to any acca
PICK
Wolves win (1.53 @ paddy power) 6 points
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Reading V Nottingham forest
Reading like Wolves are in a bit of a rut at the moment but it can only be a matter of time before they start to play like they are capable of. Their bad run has coincided with a bad patch from Kevin Doyle and he will be fairly eager to get back on the scoresheet and get the team going again. Despite struggling for goals, Steve Coppell’s men are managing to pick up points due to a tough defence that kept three consecutive clean sheets prior to the game against Bristol City. As with Wolves, Reading have a great chance to get 3 points today and mainly because of their opposition. Forest are sliding at the moment and are five league matches without victory. Last weeks 3 – 1 defeat to Derby will have knocked the stuffing out of them and their defence has opened up lately having conceded 12 goals in six matches.
Verdict
Reading are the closest to a premiership side in the championship and are due a bit of good fortune in front of the posts. Forest have conceded a few too many lately to suggest they can make it difficult for Coppells men. Reading to win 2 – 0
PICK
Reading (1.62 @ ladbrokes) 6 points
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Swansea V Charlton
Swansea may have been knocked out of the FA cup midweek but gained a lot of admirers for the way they played against their Premiership opponents. Now that the dream is over they will have got a taste for the lime light and will be keen to push on and secure a play off spot. They attack quite well, score plenty of goals and have a strong home record. Jason Scotland is having a fine season and has 14 goals in his last 15 appearances. If they don’t make it to the premiership this year, he probably will. They are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment winning the last 4 at home scoring 12 goals in the process.
Charlton have fallen a long way from the heights of the premiership a few short seasons ago and at this stage seem resigned to a place in league 1 next season. They have been scoring goals but the main problem has been in defence where they have conceded more goals than anyone else this season. 55 goals left in, that’s 1 to 2 a game. The 0 – 0 draw last time out was their first clean sheet in 12 games and it’s hard to see them keeping a rampant Swansea at bay for 90 minutes.
Verdict
Swansea are just getting too many goals at the moment. Although defeated during the week, their confidence is sky high and at home they are a match for any team. They have beaten the best in the league at home and should take another 3 points here in their bid for the premiership.
PICK
Swansea (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points
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Bristol City V Blackpool
Bristol have made some major progress at the club since Christmas rising from 18th to fifth in the Championship table. Last weeks 2 – 0 win at Reading further underlined their confidence and they have now won 8 of the last 10.
At home recently they are just as strong and have found their scoring boots scoring 2 a game in the last 4. When you get into the habit of winning games, confidence rises, players feel comfortable within themselves and good results follow. That’s whats happening at Bristol City and though many tipped them to go down this year it looks now like they are well in with a shout to make the playoffs and give Lordburt a day out.
Blackpool are struggling for points and having to scrap for everything they can. They are unpredictable to say the least and an example of this was beating Brum a few weeks back 2 – 0 only to be hammered 3 – 0 by QPR shortly afterwards. On the road they are just as erratic and every now and then spring a good result which is just enough to keep their head above water. They have a few injuries and suspension problems today so are weakened in one or two areas.
Verdict
Bristol City have the players to win this game comfortably. If the “good” Blackpool turn up on the day then they might have trouble with them but if they are serious about a top 6 finish then these are the kind of games they should be winning, especially at home.
PICK
Bristol City (1.77 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Six Nations on Saturday
Ireland V England
Ireland may never have a better chance to win the six nations than they do right now. Wales losing in Paris last night was a huge bonus to Ireland and it will be interesting to see how they will react as its now theirs to lose. As I see it, this could yet come down to points if Ireland lose to Wales in Cardiff on the last day. First though we have to beat England and as always this Ireland/England clash should be good. Ireland definitely hold the upper hand in the recent clashes and England will be eager to avenge to 30-point defeat here in 2007. Ireland were impressive in their first outing against France, to be fair they struggled against Italy and the scoreline probably didn’t reflect the game as Ireland scored late tries to flatter themselves. Still it was the kind of poor performance that woke them up and they will need to be wide-awake today and not make any errors as England will pounce. As usual O Gara will have a massive influence on the game. He has got a lot of bad press in the English media down through the years and seems to save his best for these kind of games.
England really did well against Wales. Sure they lost but restored a bit of pride as they were never expected to win in Cardiff in the first place. They have showed signs of improvement but the team is changed once again disrupting things and making it harder to predict. Toby Flood comes in for Andy Goode and this means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times and used five different players in 10 Test matches. That kind of chopping and changing is not good for anyone but I do think Flood is the best man at the moment. Im not sure where Cipriani has disappeared to? Flood is the only significant change for this game. One thing England need to clean up on is their discipline, 8 yellow card in the last 3 matches and they gave away needless penalties against Wales. This kind of indiscipline will hurt them, especially if O Gara is in the mood.
Verdict
Ireland should win this but it’s hard to gauge by how much. The handicap line has moved to 8 and 9 in places and this looks about right. As I said, much will depend on O Gara, he chipped in with 15 points against France, 11 against Italy and England did give away an awful amount of scoreable penalties against Wales. Therefore il go with O Gara to score more than 12 points or more. He beat it in the first game, would have beaten it in the second game only for a silly sin bin. If he has a good day then he’s obviously strong candidate for motm too. John Hayes is making a record number of appearances today for Ireland also and if he has a half decent game could be in the running for man of the match also to mark the occasion
PICK
Ronan O Gara 12 points or more (1.8 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Ronan O Gara man of the match (9 @ Paddy power) 1 point
John Hayes man of the match (67 @ Paddy power) 1 point
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Scotland V Italy
Surely this will be the battle to avoid the wooden spoon as neither look like picking up points in the remaining games. Scotland played above themselves in France but I still keep thinking of that terrible performance in Murrayfield against Wales on day one. No heart and no bottle that day but surely they can’t be as poor at home again? Max and Thom Evans will be very important today as they have the pace and invention to hurt Italy. Scoring tries and showing a bit of creativity has been the Scots biggest problem so far and it will be tough against a hard Italian pack today. Scotland need no reminding about the threats Italy pose as they have lost the last 2 to them.
Italy played quite well against Ireland but never really looked like they believed that they could win it. They hit hard and not always fairly but should have kept the scoreline much closer than they did. Eventually they tired and it was visible in the last 10 that they were on their last legs. It was in this time that Ireland pulled away as the Italians made poor handling errors and lost concentration. Having won in Edinburgh two years ago and with a win in Rome last season, Italy might have the belief that they don’t have against the bigger nations and they have made a few changes for the game. Marcato replaces the suspended full-back Masi while Bortolami comes in for the dropped Reato. Hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini returns from injury and should play
Verdict
If Scotland play t their potential then they could win this at a canter. Italy are not fit enough and look kind of clueless outside the scrum. The scots are not renowned as a free scoring side but its time to restore a bit of pride in the jersey.
PICK
Scotland – 8 points (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points
Ireland may never have a better chance to win the six nations than they do right now. Wales losing in Paris last night was a huge bonus to Ireland and it will be interesting to see how they will react as its now theirs to lose. As I see it, this could yet come down to points if Ireland lose to Wales in Cardiff on the last day. First though we have to beat England and as always this Ireland/England clash should be good. Ireland definitely hold the upper hand in the recent clashes and England will be eager to avenge to 30-point defeat here in 2007. Ireland were impressive in their first outing against France, to be fair they struggled against Italy and the scoreline probably didn’t reflect the game as Ireland scored late tries to flatter themselves. Still it was the kind of poor performance that woke them up and they will need to be wide-awake today and not make any errors as England will pounce. As usual O Gara will have a massive influence on the game. He has got a lot of bad press in the English media down through the years and seems to save his best for these kind of games.
England really did well against Wales. Sure they lost but restored a bit of pride as they were never expected to win in Cardiff in the first place. They have showed signs of improvement but the team is changed once again disrupting things and making it harder to predict. Toby Flood comes in for Andy Goode and this means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times and used five different players in 10 Test matches. That kind of chopping and changing is not good for anyone but I do think Flood is the best man at the moment. Im not sure where Cipriani has disappeared to? Flood is the only significant change for this game. One thing England need to clean up on is their discipline, 8 yellow card in the last 3 matches and they gave away needless penalties against Wales. This kind of indiscipline will hurt them, especially if O Gara is in the mood.
Verdict
Ireland should win this but it’s hard to gauge by how much. The handicap line has moved to 8 and 9 in places and this looks about right. As I said, much will depend on O Gara, he chipped in with 15 points against France, 11 against Italy and England did give away an awful amount of scoreable penalties against Wales. Therefore il go with O Gara to score more than 12 points or more. He beat it in the first game, would have beaten it in the second game only for a silly sin bin. If he has a good day then he’s obviously strong candidate for motm too. John Hayes is making a record number of appearances today for Ireland also and if he has a half decent game could be in the running for man of the match also to mark the occasion
PICK
Ronan O Gara 12 points or more (1.8 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Ronan O Gara man of the match (9 @ Paddy power) 1 point
John Hayes man of the match (67 @ Paddy power) 1 point
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Scotland V Italy
Surely this will be the battle to avoid the wooden spoon as neither look like picking up points in the remaining games. Scotland played above themselves in France but I still keep thinking of that terrible performance in Murrayfield against Wales on day one. No heart and no bottle that day but surely they can’t be as poor at home again? Max and Thom Evans will be very important today as they have the pace and invention to hurt Italy. Scoring tries and showing a bit of creativity has been the Scots biggest problem so far and it will be tough against a hard Italian pack today. Scotland need no reminding about the threats Italy pose as they have lost the last 2 to them.
Italy played quite well against Ireland but never really looked like they believed that they could win it. They hit hard and not always fairly but should have kept the scoreline much closer than they did. Eventually they tired and it was visible in the last 10 that they were on their last legs. It was in this time that Ireland pulled away as the Italians made poor handling errors and lost concentration. Having won in Edinburgh two years ago and with a win in Rome last season, Italy might have the belief that they don’t have against the bigger nations and they have made a few changes for the game. Marcato replaces the suspended full-back Masi while Bortolami comes in for the dropped Reato. Hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini returns from injury and should play
Verdict
If Scotland play t their potential then they could win this at a canter. Italy are not fit enough and look kind of clueless outside the scrum. The scots are not renowned as a free scoring side but its time to restore a bit of pride in the jersey.
PICK
Scotland – 8 points (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Six Nations on Friday
France V Wales
I nearly missed this one as it is quite unusual to see games fixed for Friday night.
France kicked off the campaign with defeat in Dublin but were widely and rightly given praise after the display in which they were very unlucky to lose. That proved to be a bit of a false dawn though with an error strewn lack lustre performance against Scotland in Paris 2 weeks ago. They never really had any control in that game and were lucky to get over a fairly average Scottish side. The big news is that fly half Lionel Beauxis is out so Lievremont has to gamble a little and play the inexperienced Benoit Baby. Coming in at scrum half is Morgan Parra who is picked ahead of Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Its doubtful that France will be as poor again and lets remember they were well beaten in Cardiff last year so theres a score to settle.
Wales will be looking to equal the record of both England and France in going nine Six Nations Championship matches without defeat. Two wins from two over Scotland and England leave them in a good position to reclaim the six nations but there were a few doubts over their performance against England. Its hard to say if Wales were bad on the day or did England just play well but there were definitely a few areas exposed by England and the French will look to capitalise on these. Shane Williams is back though and he will be a huge help. He will fit back into the starting 15 and that’s likely to be the only change. Pretty boy Henson is back on the bench too.
Verdict
These are two of the best attacking sides to watch and this should be a great clash. If the real France turn up then the price on them will look huge come tomorrow night. They were poor against Scotland but this is a big game and they should be well up for it. As I see it this is very evenly balanced and I can’t ignore the odds on the home win. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but home venue and a hint of revenge could be the deciding factor in this. England proved that Wales can be got at and the French, if they chose to run the ball, are one of the fastest teams around Il take France to win in what should be a cracker.
PICK
France (2.4 @ sporting bet) 4 points
I nearly missed this one as it is quite unusual to see games fixed for Friday night.
France kicked off the campaign with defeat in Dublin but were widely and rightly given praise after the display in which they were very unlucky to lose. That proved to be a bit of a false dawn though with an error strewn lack lustre performance against Scotland in Paris 2 weeks ago. They never really had any control in that game and were lucky to get over a fairly average Scottish side. The big news is that fly half Lionel Beauxis is out so Lievremont has to gamble a little and play the inexperienced Benoit Baby. Coming in at scrum half is Morgan Parra who is picked ahead of Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Its doubtful that France will be as poor again and lets remember they were well beaten in Cardiff last year so theres a score to settle.
Wales will be looking to equal the record of both England and France in going nine Six Nations Championship matches without defeat. Two wins from two over Scotland and England leave them in a good position to reclaim the six nations but there were a few doubts over their performance against England. Its hard to say if Wales were bad on the day or did England just play well but there were definitely a few areas exposed by England and the French will look to capitalise on these. Shane Williams is back though and he will be a huge help. He will fit back into the starting 15 and that’s likely to be the only change. Pretty boy Henson is back on the bench too.
Verdict
These are two of the best attacking sides to watch and this should be a great clash. If the real France turn up then the price on them will look huge come tomorrow night. They were poor against Scotland but this is a big game and they should be well up for it. As I see it this is very evenly balanced and I can’t ignore the odds on the home win. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but home venue and a hint of revenge could be the deciding factor in this. England proved that Wales can be got at and the French, if they chose to run the ball, are one of the fastest teams around Il take France to win in what should be a cracker.
PICK
France (2.4 @ sporting bet) 4 points
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Uefa cup Thursday
CSKA Moscow v Aston Villa
The odds have dropped dramatically since news emerged of the squad that Martin O Neill is taking to Moscow. Early prices of 2.10 have been smashed down to circa 1.6 and it’s hard to argue with that when you analyse the game.
CSKA
The Russian side may be on their winter break but showed no signs of rustiness on their visit to Villa Park in a 1 – 1 draw last week.
Many, including this writer thought that the winter break in which they had not played since early December would damage their chances. They deservedly took the leak through Vagnor Love and could have scored more if they had their shooting boots on. New coach Zico has instilled a sense of confidence in them and has changed their tactics from 3-5-2 to 4-4-2 but they have adapted without hassle. He has spoken of his delight at the attitude and performance of some of his players, in particular the younger generation.
In general there is a good vibe coming from the camp and they can draw confidence from the first leg performance and in particular their midfield which didn’t let Villa create many clear cut chances.
Aston Villa
As mentioned above Martin O Neill appears to have conceded the UEFA cup for this year to concentrate on a bigger prize, a top 4 standing in the league and a champion’s league spot next year. Gareth Barry, Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Carlos Cuellar and Stiliyan Petrov are all excluded from the travelling squad to Russia, all key players.
He said: "We have a couple of players who are carrying injuries and a couple of others who I believe need resting for the important final third of the season." This leaves O Neill with a largely inexperienced squad with the only regulars being Luke Young, Curtis Davies, Zat Knight and John Carew.
Obviously having conceded an away goal Villa will have to attack to get something from the tie. Its hard to see where the goals will come from though seeing as they are largely dependant on Barry, Milner and Young in the middle and Agbonlahor for scoring. In fact their best player in the first leg was Petrov and he’s also missing.
Verdict
Although the price has dropped it’s hard to argue with CSKA wining this one. A scoreless draw will see them through but they won’t play the game like this. Defending a 0 – 0 lead is too risky and they showed enough quality in the first leg to say that they can attack and score. Going to a cold plastic pitch in Russia would be tough for Villa’s full team and with this bunch of inexperienced players it going to be even harder.
CSKA to win 2 or 3 – 0
PICK
CSKA –1 ( 2.09 @ canbet) 6 points
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Standard V Braga
( In progress)
The odds have dropped dramatically since news emerged of the squad that Martin O Neill is taking to Moscow. Early prices of 2.10 have been smashed down to circa 1.6 and it’s hard to argue with that when you analyse the game.
CSKA
The Russian side may be on their winter break but showed no signs of rustiness on their visit to Villa Park in a 1 – 1 draw last week.
Many, including this writer thought that the winter break in which they had not played since early December would damage their chances. They deservedly took the leak through Vagnor Love and could have scored more if they had their shooting boots on. New coach Zico has instilled a sense of confidence in them and has changed their tactics from 3-5-2 to 4-4-2 but they have adapted without hassle. He has spoken of his delight at the attitude and performance of some of his players, in particular the younger generation.
In general there is a good vibe coming from the camp and they can draw confidence from the first leg performance and in particular their midfield which didn’t let Villa create many clear cut chances.
Aston Villa
As mentioned above Martin O Neill appears to have conceded the UEFA cup for this year to concentrate on a bigger prize, a top 4 standing in the league and a champion’s league spot next year. Gareth Barry, Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Carlos Cuellar and Stiliyan Petrov are all excluded from the travelling squad to Russia, all key players.
He said: "We have a couple of players who are carrying injuries and a couple of others who I believe need resting for the important final third of the season." This leaves O Neill with a largely inexperienced squad with the only regulars being Luke Young, Curtis Davies, Zat Knight and John Carew.
Obviously having conceded an away goal Villa will have to attack to get something from the tie. Its hard to see where the goals will come from though seeing as they are largely dependant on Barry, Milner and Young in the middle and Agbonlahor for scoring. In fact their best player in the first leg was Petrov and he’s also missing.
Verdict
Although the price has dropped it’s hard to argue with CSKA wining this one. A scoreless draw will see them through but they won’t play the game like this. Defending a 0 – 0 lead is too risky and they showed enough quality in the first leg to say that they can attack and score. Going to a cold plastic pitch in Russia would be tough for Villa’s full team and with this bunch of inexperienced players it going to be even harder.
CSKA to win 2 or 3 – 0
PICK
CSKA –1 ( 2.09 @ canbet) 6 points
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Standard V Braga
( In progress)
Champions League on wednesday
Real Madrid V Liverpool
Kick-off: Wednesday, 25 February 2009
20:45 CET – Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Real Madrid
Real come into this on the back of a successful weekend’s work in La Liga where they cut into Barcelona’s lead at the top with a convincing 6 – 1 win over Real Betis. They have now won nine games in a row, scoring 22 goals in the process while conceding just two. This run has helped them overcome a terrible opening to the season and has helped take the pressure of them somewhat as opposed to other seasons when they were heavily weighed down with expectation. Obviously the fans still expect success but firstly Real Madrid will attempt to get past the last 16 for the first time in five years.
They comfortably defeated BATE Borisov and Zenit St Petersburg at home in the group stages but were beaten 2 – 0 by Juventus.
It was at this stage last year when they made their exit in a 2 – 1 defeat to Roma.
Lassana Diarra came into the squad in January and has been a success story so far in the middle of the park. Also the signing of Huntelaar has recently begun to show promise though he is ineligible for the champions league. However attacking threat is not a problem with the likes of Robben, Raul, Higuain and Sneijder all able to pose an attacking threat.
Team News
Juande Ramos has the welcome luxury of having all his squad available for selection. Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder have fully recovered from their knocks and should start.
Liverpool
Liverpool had the complete opposite of Real in the last weekend of premiership action. The 1 – 1 draw with Manchester City not only lost them valuable points but further underlined the importance of the absent Steven Gerrard. Although he is included in the travelling squad to Madrid, there are concerns about his fitness having been out for three weeks out with a hamstring injury and at time of writing it is unknown if he will start.
This clash has probably come at the wrong time for Liverpool as they seem to have lost the confidence that put them top of the League. A tough run of fixtures saw them depart the FA Cup at the expense of rivals Everton and struggle to a 3 – 2 win over Portsmouth where 2 late goals saved their blushes. In Fernando Torres though they have a match winner and Real will need to watch him at all times as he is capable of striking out of nowhere. He will be eager to impress going back to play against his former club rivals. He never scored for Atletico at the Bernabeu but will be hoping to change that stat.
Team News
Gerrard is back but it’s hard to imagine he is at full match fitness. Sami Hyypia will replace Daniel Agger who has a back injury. Xabi Alonso returns from suspension.
Verdict
Real Madrid have only lost once to an English club at the Bernabeu, a 1 – 0 defeat to Arsenal in 2006. I think Real hold all the aces in this game. They have the confidence, the scoring power and home advantage, Gerarrd has scored 5 times in the last 5 champions league games and is pivotal to his teams chances but is he fit?. They have a good pedigree in Europe but for a team renowned for their defence have only one clean sheet in their last 10 Champions League matches and face a big task to keep Real out. Liverpool will be happy to defend and do the work at Anfield but I fancy Real to come through Wednesday night with a narrow win. Winning is important but keeping Liverpool without an away goal is also very important so expect a low scoring affair .
1 – 0 to Real Madrid
PICK
Real Madrid win (2.1 @ boylesports) 6 points
Kick-off: Wednesday, 25 February 2009
20:45 CET – Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Real Madrid
Real come into this on the back of a successful weekend’s work in La Liga where they cut into Barcelona’s lead at the top with a convincing 6 – 1 win over Real Betis. They have now won nine games in a row, scoring 22 goals in the process while conceding just two. This run has helped them overcome a terrible opening to the season and has helped take the pressure of them somewhat as opposed to other seasons when they were heavily weighed down with expectation. Obviously the fans still expect success but firstly Real Madrid will attempt to get past the last 16 for the first time in five years.
They comfortably defeated BATE Borisov and Zenit St Petersburg at home in the group stages but were beaten 2 – 0 by Juventus.
It was at this stage last year when they made their exit in a 2 – 1 defeat to Roma.
Lassana Diarra came into the squad in January and has been a success story so far in the middle of the park. Also the signing of Huntelaar has recently begun to show promise though he is ineligible for the champions league. However attacking threat is not a problem with the likes of Robben, Raul, Higuain and Sneijder all able to pose an attacking threat.
Team News
Juande Ramos has the welcome luxury of having all his squad available for selection. Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder have fully recovered from their knocks and should start.
Liverpool
Liverpool had the complete opposite of Real in the last weekend of premiership action. The 1 – 1 draw with Manchester City not only lost them valuable points but further underlined the importance of the absent Steven Gerrard. Although he is included in the travelling squad to Madrid, there are concerns about his fitness having been out for three weeks out with a hamstring injury and at time of writing it is unknown if he will start.
This clash has probably come at the wrong time for Liverpool as they seem to have lost the confidence that put them top of the League. A tough run of fixtures saw them depart the FA Cup at the expense of rivals Everton and struggle to a 3 – 2 win over Portsmouth where 2 late goals saved their blushes. In Fernando Torres though they have a match winner and Real will need to watch him at all times as he is capable of striking out of nowhere. He will be eager to impress going back to play against his former club rivals. He never scored for Atletico at the Bernabeu but will be hoping to change that stat.
Team News
Gerrard is back but it’s hard to imagine he is at full match fitness. Sami Hyypia will replace Daniel Agger who has a back injury. Xabi Alonso returns from suspension.
Verdict
Real Madrid have only lost once to an English club at the Bernabeu, a 1 – 0 defeat to Arsenal in 2006. I think Real hold all the aces in this game. They have the confidence, the scoring power and home advantage, Gerarrd has scored 5 times in the last 5 champions league games and is pivotal to his teams chances but is he fit?. They have a good pedigree in Europe but for a team renowned for their defence have only one clean sheet in their last 10 Champions League matches and face a big task to keep Real out. Liverpool will be happy to defend and do the work at Anfield but I fancy Real to come through Wednesday night with a narrow win. Winning is important but keeping Liverpool without an away goal is also very important so expect a low scoring affair .
1 – 0 to Real Madrid
PICK
Real Madrid win (2.1 @ boylesports) 6 points
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Sunday Picks
Im sh*t out of luck at the moment and I apologise to anyone following my stuff. Lots of small things have gone against me lately and it really annoys me. Worse still im having amazing luck betting in play, getting everything right. A quick example of more luck, I was having trouble with one of my betting accounts yesterday, so the company in question set up a new account for me and gave me a €20 goodwill gesture, the only drawback was that it had to be used in the casino. Apart from the odd bout of blackjack im not really much for casino’s but I decided to use it anyhow. I went to the slots where I thought I was spinning for 20 cent a time, after pressing the button though I realised id messed up and played for 20 Euro instead of 20 cents. The result? I won a mini jackpot of €570. I withdrew the money straight away and thought my luck was changing for the better! Need to get my head right though and pick a few winners.
Fulham V West Brom
Fulham have one of the better home records in the premiership and look like getting their 8th home win of the season. They look way more solid at Craven Cottage and tight pitch seems to suit their style of play. They are tough to break down and only Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea have conceded fewer home goals. It’s this defensive quality that has seen them get numerous 0 – 0 draw on the road. Andy Johnson is a dangerous striker who is only feeding off scraps but has found the net out of nothing on more than one occasion.
West Brom are simply awful away and have picked up just five points and scoring a miserable six goals. Coming up against such a mean Fulham defence will be a tough assignment. Jay Simpson is back for selection which will be a boost. The baggies are bottom of the table and have the worst goal record in the league. To be quite honest it’s hard to find any positives for them in this game and even harder to see them getting anything from the game.
Verdict
West Brom are simply conceding too many goals and will find it very hard to break down the Fulham defence.
Fulham to win 1 or 2 – 0
PICK
Fulham win (1.83 @ VC) 6 points
Fulham to win to nil (2.75 @ bet365) 2 points
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Liverpool V Manchester City
Im probably going to get a lot of stick for this but im opposing Liverpool today. Im a guy who likes my stats and obviously everything points towards a home win here. Liverpool are strong at home, Man City are poor away so you are probably wondering where am I going with this.
Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso are out for Liverpool, now if you watch Liverpool enough you will know that both of these are central to the Pools attacking threat, they play in intelligent ball and Torres has scored many of his goals assisted by these two. With Man U winning yesterday there is real pressure on Liverpool to get 3 points today. But, it must be remembered that they have champions league on Wednesday against Real Madrid. Yesterday Real Madrid absolutely took Real Betis apart and were 6 – 1 up at HT before easing off in the second half. No matter what way you look at things im sure the Pool players were watching that game last night and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were not 100% focused today. Added to that they have a huge six pointer against Man U next week also to think about.
Man City have been poor away from Eastlands and this is mainly down to the fact that their big name players have failed to play to their potential. Robinho in particular has struggled but surely performing at Anfield in front of a huge TV audience will suit him today. Wright-Philips is out but Elano looks likely to play. Nigel de Jong was ineligible for the midweek Uefa cup trip to Denmark but should come straight back into the starting line-up. City have not won away in 10 games and were pretty lacklustre last time out in a 2 – 0 defeat to Pompey.
Verdict
Im not so sure that Liverpool will have this as easy as some people expect. I haven’t read anywhere that anyone has given City a chance but I think they do. Liverpool have only won 2 of their last 6 at Anfield and in that sequence have been held by Hull, West Ham and Fulham. With Gerard and Alonso out you are taking away a huge chunk of their creativity and defence splitting passes. Man City are nothing special but they have big players and should rise their game for today’s game. Lets not forget Bellamy is going back to his old club and has a point to prove. Liverpools midfield is not creative enough and I find it hard to see them getting many chances. Man City won away at Old trafford last season when nobody gave them a hope. Can they do something similar again? They will be close so small – medium stakes
PICK
Draw ( 4 @ ladbrokes) 3 points
Man City draw no bet (5 @ boylesports) 2 points
Fulham V West Brom
Fulham have one of the better home records in the premiership and look like getting their 8th home win of the season. They look way more solid at Craven Cottage and tight pitch seems to suit their style of play. They are tough to break down and only Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea have conceded fewer home goals. It’s this defensive quality that has seen them get numerous 0 – 0 draw on the road. Andy Johnson is a dangerous striker who is only feeding off scraps but has found the net out of nothing on more than one occasion.
West Brom are simply awful away and have picked up just five points and scoring a miserable six goals. Coming up against such a mean Fulham defence will be a tough assignment. Jay Simpson is back for selection which will be a boost. The baggies are bottom of the table and have the worst goal record in the league. To be quite honest it’s hard to find any positives for them in this game and even harder to see them getting anything from the game.
Verdict
West Brom are simply conceding too many goals and will find it very hard to break down the Fulham defence.
Fulham to win 1 or 2 – 0
PICK
Fulham win (1.83 @ VC) 6 points
Fulham to win to nil (2.75 @ bet365) 2 points
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Liverpool V Manchester City
Im probably going to get a lot of stick for this but im opposing Liverpool today. Im a guy who likes my stats and obviously everything points towards a home win here. Liverpool are strong at home, Man City are poor away so you are probably wondering where am I going with this.
Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso are out for Liverpool, now if you watch Liverpool enough you will know that both of these are central to the Pools attacking threat, they play in intelligent ball and Torres has scored many of his goals assisted by these two. With Man U winning yesterday there is real pressure on Liverpool to get 3 points today. But, it must be remembered that they have champions league on Wednesday against Real Madrid. Yesterday Real Madrid absolutely took Real Betis apart and were 6 – 1 up at HT before easing off in the second half. No matter what way you look at things im sure the Pool players were watching that game last night and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were not 100% focused today. Added to that they have a huge six pointer against Man U next week also to think about.
Man City have been poor away from Eastlands and this is mainly down to the fact that their big name players have failed to play to their potential. Robinho in particular has struggled but surely performing at Anfield in front of a huge TV audience will suit him today. Wright-Philips is out but Elano looks likely to play. Nigel de Jong was ineligible for the midweek Uefa cup trip to Denmark but should come straight back into the starting line-up. City have not won away in 10 games and were pretty lacklustre last time out in a 2 – 0 defeat to Pompey.
Verdict
Im not so sure that Liverpool will have this as easy as some people expect. I haven’t read anywhere that anyone has given City a chance but I think they do. Liverpool have only won 2 of their last 6 at Anfield and in that sequence have been held by Hull, West Ham and Fulham. With Gerard and Alonso out you are taking away a huge chunk of their creativity and defence splitting passes. Man City are nothing special but they have big players and should rise their game for today’s game. Lets not forget Bellamy is going back to his old club and has a point to prove. Liverpools midfield is not creative enough and I find it hard to see them getting many chances. Man City won away at Old trafford last season when nobody gave them a hope. Can they do something similar again? They will be close so small – medium stakes
PICK
Draw ( 4 @ ladbrokes) 3 points
Man City draw no bet (5 @ boylesports) 2 points
More Saturday football
Reading V Bristol City
Despite trailing Wolves for most of the season Reading now have a huge chance to make a real push for top spot and automatic promotion. With two games in hand they sit just 4 points off the summit and need 3 points today after some patchy form. It seems that all the teams in the championship are doing their best to throw promotion away with so many mixed results and iffy performances. Reading though have one of the better home records and have taken 39 points from a possible 48.
Bristol City are no mugs either and have been banging in goals for fun lately. They have won 7 of their last 9 games and are making a real push for a playoff spot. They are bringing 4000 fans to the Madejski so obviously this is a game where they feel they can get something.
Both managers have relatively full squads to chose from.
Verdict
Its hard to call this one as even though I feel Reading will eventually win out the championship, there will be more twists and turns along the way. Bristol City certainly have enough options to trouble the Reading defence and for this reason I think over 2.5 goals is a safer option than taking the home win.
2 – 1 or 2 – 2 for me.
PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2.02 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
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Despite trailing Wolves for most of the season Reading now have a huge chance to make a real push for top spot and automatic promotion. With two games in hand they sit just 4 points off the summit and need 3 points today after some patchy form. It seems that all the teams in the championship are doing their best to throw promotion away with so many mixed results and iffy performances. Reading though have one of the better home records and have taken 39 points from a possible 48.
Bristol City are no mugs either and have been banging in goals for fun lately. They have won 7 of their last 9 games and are making a real push for a playoff spot. They are bringing 4000 fans to the Madejski so obviously this is a game where they feel they can get something.
Both managers have relatively full squads to chose from.
Verdict
Its hard to call this one as even though I feel Reading will eventually win out the championship, there will be more twists and turns along the way. Bristol City certainly have enough options to trouble the Reading defence and for this reason I think over 2.5 goals is a safer option than taking the home win.
2 – 1 or 2 – 2 for me.
PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2.02 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
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Friday, February 20, 2009
Arsenal V Sunderland
The return of Eduardo midweek was a huge boost to Arsenal and this was very evident and created a buzz amongst the fans. He chipped in with 2 goals and immediately people were thinking of what might have been if he had never been injured in the first place. Unfortunately he is out for a further two weeks with a strain he picked up so it’s back to square one for Wenger again. Arsenal have a good record against the Mackems and have won 4 of the last 5 games at home to them. At the stadium of light earlier in the year the Gunners were very lucky to come away with a point after a late late equaliser from Fabregas if I remember rightly. He is also out injured and joins a list that includes Rosicky, Silvestre,Adebayor,Diaby,Walcott and the previously mentioned Eduardo. That’s a big list of casualties but Wenger will be hoping that newly signed Arshavin can make an immediate impact.
Gunners are in iffy form at the moment but have still pulled 24 points from a possible 36 at the Emirates. Crucially they have not been losing games and are now just 4 points off Chelsea.
Sunderland are in 11th position but still need to gather points to ensure safety. They have amassed 13 points from a possible 36 on their travels and have only kept one clean sheet in that time. Sbragia claims to have got the morale up in the dressing room but going to the Emirates with only one clean sheet so far is a daunting test. Defender Phil Bardsley is suspended so either Davenport or Tal Ben Haim is set for a debut. Mcshane is back from Hull and Tainio appears to be fit again.
Verdict
3 points is a must for Arsenal, there has been much made of the fact that there are a few Arsenal players not ready to hang around if they don’t finish in the top 4 and they really need to start picking up points, especially at home. They have a lot of injuries but still have a lot of class in their team. I have nothing against Sunderland as a team but take them away from home and they look unconvincing. Wenger is looking ahead to the champions league next week but its vital his team go into that clash with some form of confidence.
Arsenal to win 2 – 0
PICK
Arsenal –1.25 (2.05 @ bet365) 6 points
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Aston Villa V Chelsea
This will be a massive game and it will have a huge bearing for a few teams. For Arsenal, just below these teams a draw is possibly the best result and the same could be said for Liverpool and Manchester United who are just above them. It’s a 12:45 kick off so its interesting to see how will Villa cope with the pressure of a huge tv audience watching. O Neill has done a fantastic job at Villa and they deserve to be playing champions league football next year. I just hope it’s not at the expense of my beloved Gunners.
About the tie though and Chelsea do not like playing Aston Villa and haven’t won here in 5 attempts. Gus Hiddink is the new gaffer at Chelsea till seasons end and players will be keen to impress him and get a regular starting berth.
This is a very tricky game to call, Villa have had lots of games lately and they have looked tired at times in recent games. They were well beaten by Everton last weekend and had to settle for a draw at home to CSKA Moscow in the UEFA Cup in midweek. At times they have even looked more comfortable away from home this season. Heskey and Milner are out but Sidwell is back from suspension.
Regarding away form the same can be said of Chelsea, who have won more games away from Stamford bridge than at home. Ashley Cole is suspended while Alex, Essien and Ricardo Carvalho are both doubtful. Hiddink hasn’t revealed too much about team selection though it is believed he will stick to similar lineouts from the last few weeks.
Verdict
Im weary of the draw but I think Chelsea have more plus points going for them coming into this one. They are better away from home and while trying to impress a new boss they should be able to take advantage of a slightly weakened Villa team. Martin Laursen is out for Villa and they look unsteady without him in the center of defence. Its been a long time since Chelsea were quoted at these kind of prices to beat a team out side the big 3.
I just cant see Villa winning so il take Chelsea draw no bet just in case of the draw.
PICK
Chelsea draw no bet ( 1.65 @ 10bet) 6 points
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Manchester United V Blackburn
You know what, theres not much point in me going into huge detail here. Man Utd are simply a cut above everyone else and the premiership its theirs to lose at this stage. Their home record is simply amazing and they have only dropped 2 points so far. You just get the feeling watching them (especially against the lower teams) that they can always step up a gear if they need to. They haven’t conceded in 14 games and even with a champion’s league coming up they can call on a bench full of stars that won’t weaken the team one bit. Rooney is back from injury, Vidic is on for player of the year and Scholes and Giggs are playing like they did 10 years ago. Man Utd's last 10 league games record reads DWWWWWWWWW (impressive right!)
Blackburn are in the danger zone but are capable of getting out of it. However they will probably stand a better chance in their next 2 games against Hull and Everton. They do have a reasonable record against United but realistically its damage limitation at Old Trafford tomorrow. They have been dodgy defensively and can’t afford to give any chances away tomorrow.
Verdict
Ronaldo, Rooney, Berbatov. Theres just far too much attacking talent in this United squad to see Blackburn causing any real threat. With their defence looking unbeatable it should only be a case of how many.
Man Utd – 1.5 goals ( 1.88 @ bet365) 6 points
The return of Eduardo midweek was a huge boost to Arsenal and this was very evident and created a buzz amongst the fans. He chipped in with 2 goals and immediately people were thinking of what might have been if he had never been injured in the first place. Unfortunately he is out for a further two weeks with a strain he picked up so it’s back to square one for Wenger again. Arsenal have a good record against the Mackems and have won 4 of the last 5 games at home to them. At the stadium of light earlier in the year the Gunners were very lucky to come away with a point after a late late equaliser from Fabregas if I remember rightly. He is also out injured and joins a list that includes Rosicky, Silvestre,Adebayor,Diaby,Walcott and the previously mentioned Eduardo. That’s a big list of casualties but Wenger will be hoping that newly signed Arshavin can make an immediate impact.
Gunners are in iffy form at the moment but have still pulled 24 points from a possible 36 at the Emirates. Crucially they have not been losing games and are now just 4 points off Chelsea.
Sunderland are in 11th position but still need to gather points to ensure safety. They have amassed 13 points from a possible 36 on their travels and have only kept one clean sheet in that time. Sbragia claims to have got the morale up in the dressing room but going to the Emirates with only one clean sheet so far is a daunting test. Defender Phil Bardsley is suspended so either Davenport or Tal Ben Haim is set for a debut. Mcshane is back from Hull and Tainio appears to be fit again.
Verdict
3 points is a must for Arsenal, there has been much made of the fact that there are a few Arsenal players not ready to hang around if they don’t finish in the top 4 and they really need to start picking up points, especially at home. They have a lot of injuries but still have a lot of class in their team. I have nothing against Sunderland as a team but take them away from home and they look unconvincing. Wenger is looking ahead to the champions league next week but its vital his team go into that clash with some form of confidence.
Arsenal to win 2 – 0
PICK
Arsenal –1.25 (2.05 @ bet365) 6 points
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Aston Villa V Chelsea
This will be a massive game and it will have a huge bearing for a few teams. For Arsenal, just below these teams a draw is possibly the best result and the same could be said for Liverpool and Manchester United who are just above them. It’s a 12:45 kick off so its interesting to see how will Villa cope with the pressure of a huge tv audience watching. O Neill has done a fantastic job at Villa and they deserve to be playing champions league football next year. I just hope it’s not at the expense of my beloved Gunners.
About the tie though and Chelsea do not like playing Aston Villa and haven’t won here in 5 attempts. Gus Hiddink is the new gaffer at Chelsea till seasons end and players will be keen to impress him and get a regular starting berth.
This is a very tricky game to call, Villa have had lots of games lately and they have looked tired at times in recent games. They were well beaten by Everton last weekend and had to settle for a draw at home to CSKA Moscow in the UEFA Cup in midweek. At times they have even looked more comfortable away from home this season. Heskey and Milner are out but Sidwell is back from suspension.
Regarding away form the same can be said of Chelsea, who have won more games away from Stamford bridge than at home. Ashley Cole is suspended while Alex, Essien and Ricardo Carvalho are both doubtful. Hiddink hasn’t revealed too much about team selection though it is believed he will stick to similar lineouts from the last few weeks.
Verdict
Im weary of the draw but I think Chelsea have more plus points going for them coming into this one. They are better away from home and while trying to impress a new boss they should be able to take advantage of a slightly weakened Villa team. Martin Laursen is out for Villa and they look unsteady without him in the center of defence. Its been a long time since Chelsea were quoted at these kind of prices to beat a team out side the big 3.
I just cant see Villa winning so il take Chelsea draw no bet just in case of the draw.
PICK
Chelsea draw no bet ( 1.65 @ 10bet) 6 points
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Manchester United V Blackburn
You know what, theres not much point in me going into huge detail here. Man Utd are simply a cut above everyone else and the premiership its theirs to lose at this stage. Their home record is simply amazing and they have only dropped 2 points so far. You just get the feeling watching them (especially against the lower teams) that they can always step up a gear if they need to. They haven’t conceded in 14 games and even with a champion’s league coming up they can call on a bench full of stars that won’t weaken the team one bit. Rooney is back from injury, Vidic is on for player of the year and Scholes and Giggs are playing like they did 10 years ago. Man Utd's last 10 league games record reads DWWWWWWWWW (impressive right!)
Blackburn are in the danger zone but are capable of getting out of it. However they will probably stand a better chance in their next 2 games against Hull and Everton. They do have a reasonable record against United but realistically its damage limitation at Old Trafford tomorrow. They have been dodgy defensively and can’t afford to give any chances away tomorrow.
Verdict
Ronaldo, Rooney, Berbatov. Theres just far too much attacking talent in this United squad to see Blackburn causing any real threat. With their defence looking unbeatable it should only be a case of how many.
Man Utd – 1.5 goals ( 1.88 @ bet365) 6 points
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Uefa cup Thursday
FC København vs. Manchester City
The pressure is really on Mark Hughes and in reality the UEFA cup is his only real chance of bringing silverware to Eastlands this year.
Theres a few reasons why I feel City can get a result in Denmark,
Firstly they have performed much better in Europe than the premiership and topped group A with relative ease. Many of their players look more comfortable playing European teams and with no disrespect to their opponents this is one of the easier draws they could have got. They have also strengthened their squad with Wayne Bridge, Craig Bellamy and Shay Given all great additions to the squad. Robinho, Richards and Wright-Phillips are all back from injury and fit for selection.
Copenhagen are out of competitive action since December 7th , this backfired against me tonight with Villa and CSKA but I feel that the situations are different here and that has to be a big advantage for City as they will have the crucial edge in sharpness.
Copenhagen’s home form has been nothing to shout about so far only managing 2 draws in their last 3 outings at home.
With all this in mind and the fact that Hughes is really in need of some good performances I think that Man City will look to get the job done as soon as possible and don’t see them losing tomorrow night. They have the players to do the job and perhaps Shay Given might eventually get some silverware this year.
PICK
Manchester City –0.25 (2.05 @ bet365) 6 points
The pressure is really on Mark Hughes and in reality the UEFA cup is his only real chance of bringing silverware to Eastlands this year.
Theres a few reasons why I feel City can get a result in Denmark,
Firstly they have performed much better in Europe than the premiership and topped group A with relative ease. Many of their players look more comfortable playing European teams and with no disrespect to their opponents this is one of the easier draws they could have got. They have also strengthened their squad with Wayne Bridge, Craig Bellamy and Shay Given all great additions to the squad. Robinho, Richards and Wright-Phillips are all back from injury and fit for selection.
Copenhagen are out of competitive action since December 7th , this backfired against me tonight with Villa and CSKA but I feel that the situations are different here and that has to be a big advantage for City as they will have the crucial edge in sharpness.
Copenhagen’s home form has been nothing to shout about so far only managing 2 draws in their last 3 outings at home.
With all this in mind and the fact that Hughes is really in need of some good performances I think that Man City will look to get the job done as soon as possible and don’t see them losing tomorrow night. They have the players to do the job and perhaps Shay Given might eventually get some silverware this year.
PICK
Manchester City –0.25 (2.05 @ bet365) 6 points
February Update
Tonights result sees me even more down than before. Its hard to find a fine line between success and defeat but im either one or the other. Its all about finding the balance but il keep going and still have plenty of time to turn a profit in this month.
Overall im well ahead but its bad runs like this that drive me mad.
Onwards and upwards right!
Overall im well ahead but its bad runs like this that drive me mad.
Onwards and upwards right!
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Uefa cup Wednesday
Aston Villa V CSKA Moscow
Despite their FA Cup exit to Everton on Sunday there is no doubt that behind Manchester United, Aston Villa are the form team in the premiership just now. Villa are currently in third place, seven points clear of fifth-placed Arsenal and they have great chance to qualify for the Champions League.
To know just how serious they are taking the Uefa cup is anyone’s guess but Martin O Neill is not a man to lie down and ignore any potential success. He has promised to name a strong 11 for this clash though he will have to do without Steve Sidwell who’s suspended and Emile Heskey who is out through injury. On the plus side Gareth Barry is back in to the squad and he is a central cog whose absence was missed against Everton. Curtis Davies is also back and he is likely to slot in at centre back.
CSKA come into this in the worst possible circumstances not having played competitively since December 4th. No amount of friendly games can make up for 10 weeks of non-competitive football and it may take a while for them to catch up to the pace of the game. Admittedly they come into the knockout stages with a 100% record and have a good pedigree in this tournament having won in 2005. They have a new man in charge with Brazilian legend Zico taking over the reigns during the winter break. He has a few problems with Anton Grigoriev and Deividas Semberas suspended and new signing Tomas Necid is ineligible. Vagnor Love is the leading scorer in this season’s UEFA Cup with eight goals to his name already. He’s been linked with a move to England several times and will be keen to impress. He is the main threat and if Villa can keep him out them they will be halfway through to victory. A potential quarter-final tie with either Tottenham Hotspur or Shakhtar Donetsk awaits the winners and both sides would be confident of beating these teams.
Verdict
The winter break is not the best preparation for CSKA but that aside, Villa will not want to head to a cold plastic pitch in Russia with a lot to do. If they are serious about progressing to the next round then they will have to carry a lead to Russia. All the best teams in England have struggled against Villa and when they are in the right frame of mind they are capable of beating anyone. They have the match practice which should give them the critical edge.
PICK
Aston Villa (2.05 @ unibet) 5 points
Despite their FA Cup exit to Everton on Sunday there is no doubt that behind Manchester United, Aston Villa are the form team in the premiership just now. Villa are currently in third place, seven points clear of fifth-placed Arsenal and they have great chance to qualify for the Champions League.
To know just how serious they are taking the Uefa cup is anyone’s guess but Martin O Neill is not a man to lie down and ignore any potential success. He has promised to name a strong 11 for this clash though he will have to do without Steve Sidwell who’s suspended and Emile Heskey who is out through injury. On the plus side Gareth Barry is back in to the squad and he is a central cog whose absence was missed against Everton. Curtis Davies is also back and he is likely to slot in at centre back.
CSKA come into this in the worst possible circumstances not having played competitively since December 4th. No amount of friendly games can make up for 10 weeks of non-competitive football and it may take a while for them to catch up to the pace of the game. Admittedly they come into the knockout stages with a 100% record and have a good pedigree in this tournament having won in 2005. They have a new man in charge with Brazilian legend Zico taking over the reigns during the winter break. He has a few problems with Anton Grigoriev and Deividas Semberas suspended and new signing Tomas Necid is ineligible. Vagnor Love is the leading scorer in this season’s UEFA Cup with eight goals to his name already. He’s been linked with a move to England several times and will be keen to impress. He is the main threat and if Villa can keep him out them they will be halfway through to victory. A potential quarter-final tie with either Tottenham Hotspur or Shakhtar Donetsk awaits the winners and both sides would be confident of beating these teams.
Verdict
The winter break is not the best preparation for CSKA but that aside, Villa will not want to head to a cold plastic pitch in Russia with a lot to do. If they are serious about progressing to the next round then they will have to carry a lead to Russia. All the best teams in England have struggled against Villa and when they are in the right frame of mind they are capable of beating anyone. They have the match practice which should give them the critical edge.
PICK
Aston Villa (2.05 @ unibet) 5 points
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Six Nations on Sunday
Italy V Ireland
Ireland finally put in a good performance last weekend, now the big question is if they can start on Sunday where they finished against the French. The overall play last weekend was good from Ireland and they were creative going forward and put in some big tackles along the way. They were by no means unbeatable but I liked the attitude that they showed, especially when they went behind. The problem with Ireland is that they so often follow up a good performance with a poor display and im a little worried about complacency, which has also been a problem in the past. Italy let me down last week, every year we seem to say, maybe this is the year they will make the breakthrough and start giving the top teams a proper test. Going into last week’s game against the English I felt that Italy’s hard graft and heavy hitting could put England off their game. However Bergamasco had an absolute howler and Italy did their best to hand away as much easy possession as possible. Paul Griffen comes in after a 16-month absence to replace Bergamasco at nine. Mallett has also made 4 more changes with McLean coming in at number 10 for the injured Marcato. Lock Tommaso Reato will replace Marco Bortolami, who has failed to recover from a knee injury picked up at Twickenham whilst Pratichetti has been included in the starting line out.
I have been mulling over this game for ages and was not so sure as to which is the best pick to take. I believe Ireland can cover the handicap but they are such a mixed bag to predict. At least with Kidney in charge they won’t be as boring and predictable. Ladbrokes are offering 1.73 for O Gara to score 12 points or more and that to me is the best of the picks I could find. If Ireland do play well then he should get plenty of shots at the post. If Italy are any way ill disciplined then he should also get plenty of chances to kick 3 pointers, this could be a tactical battle where kicking will be crucial so im going with O Gara to kick plenty of scores and put himself in the frame for man of the match.
He’s done it so many times before for club and country that ive lost count.
PICK
O Gara to score 12 points or more (1.73 @ ladbrokes) 5 points
O Gara man of the match ( 7 @ paddy power) 2 points
Ireland finally put in a good performance last weekend, now the big question is if they can start on Sunday where they finished against the French. The overall play last weekend was good from Ireland and they were creative going forward and put in some big tackles along the way. They were by no means unbeatable but I liked the attitude that they showed, especially when they went behind. The problem with Ireland is that they so often follow up a good performance with a poor display and im a little worried about complacency, which has also been a problem in the past. Italy let me down last week, every year we seem to say, maybe this is the year they will make the breakthrough and start giving the top teams a proper test. Going into last week’s game against the English I felt that Italy’s hard graft and heavy hitting could put England off their game. However Bergamasco had an absolute howler and Italy did their best to hand away as much easy possession as possible. Paul Griffen comes in after a 16-month absence to replace Bergamasco at nine. Mallett has also made 4 more changes with McLean coming in at number 10 for the injured Marcato. Lock Tommaso Reato will replace Marco Bortolami, who has failed to recover from a knee injury picked up at Twickenham whilst Pratichetti has been included in the starting line out.
I have been mulling over this game for ages and was not so sure as to which is the best pick to take. I believe Ireland can cover the handicap but they are such a mixed bag to predict. At least with Kidney in charge they won’t be as boring and predictable. Ladbrokes are offering 1.73 for O Gara to score 12 points or more and that to me is the best of the picks I could find. If Ireland do play well then he should get plenty of shots at the post. If Italy are any way ill disciplined then he should also get plenty of chances to kick 3 pointers, this could be a tactical battle where kicking will be crucial so im going with O Gara to kick plenty of scores and put himself in the frame for man of the match.
He’s done it so many times before for club and country that ive lost count.
PICK
O Gara to score 12 points or more (1.73 @ ladbrokes) 5 points
O Gara man of the match ( 7 @ paddy power) 2 points
Fa Cup
Everton V Aston Villa
At first glance I though this might be a good time for Everton to put Villa out of the cup. Surely with Villa desperate for the top 4 and a champions league spot the FA cup will be second choice. Not with a manager like Martin O Neill in charge though. Villa have looked excellent at times this year and on the road have a remarkable 10 – 0 – 3 record in the premiership. Agbonlahor and Ashley Young are having great seasons and will provide the brunt of the attacking threat. Gareth Barry is out which puts me off backing them as they need his leadership if the going gets tough.
The reason I though Everton could win was because of their new found strike man Jo. That was until I realised he was cup tied and with Saha out injured (surprise surprise) James Vaughan and Yakubu are also out which leaves Everton very bare up front for attacking options. Everton are 11 points behind the visitors today but both are having good seasons and both will be playing in Europe next season. David Moyes has done a wonderful job with such limited funds and has proved that you don’t need the best players as long as you get the work rate and tactics right. On that level Martin O Neill has also done a great job at Villa and a champions league spot would cement his popularity at Villa Park
Verdict
Both are missing some influential players and it’s hard to see where Everton goals will come from. On saying that Villa’s greatest strength is their attacking style but Everton can be tough to break down.
I can’t see past the draw here.
PICK
Draw (3.3 @ betfred) 4 points
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Derby V Manchester United
Not many teams have defeated Man Utd this season but Derby are one of the few who have managed that feat winning 1 – 0 in the carling cup some few weeks ago. It will be a big ask to see lightening strike twice though especially considering United’s recent run of form and defensive displays.
In the return leg of that carling cup tie Derby again made a nuisance of themselves before eventually going down 4 – 2. With those type of gritty, fighting displays there is no chance that Alex Ferguson will be taking them lightly today. Nigel Clough has pulled them out of the relegation places though the season is far from over they have looked much better in recent weeks.
Fergie is still on for an ambitious quadruple of titles this year and with them already in the carling cup and within touching distance of the premiership trophy it would be brave to bet against them doing so.
Van Der Sar has been keeping clean sheets by the bucketload although it could be said that United have been grinding out results as opposed to great attacking play.
Verdict
There will be no complacency from United today and even if Fergie mixes youth with experience they should still be good enough. Lessons have been learnt from the previous games and there will be no slip-ups today. United to win 2 or 3 nil.
PICK
Man United – 1.25 (1.91 @ pinnacle) 5 points
At first glance I though this might be a good time for Everton to put Villa out of the cup. Surely with Villa desperate for the top 4 and a champions league spot the FA cup will be second choice. Not with a manager like Martin O Neill in charge though. Villa have looked excellent at times this year and on the road have a remarkable 10 – 0 – 3 record in the premiership. Agbonlahor and Ashley Young are having great seasons and will provide the brunt of the attacking threat. Gareth Barry is out which puts me off backing them as they need his leadership if the going gets tough.
The reason I though Everton could win was because of their new found strike man Jo. That was until I realised he was cup tied and with Saha out injured (surprise surprise) James Vaughan and Yakubu are also out which leaves Everton very bare up front for attacking options. Everton are 11 points behind the visitors today but both are having good seasons and both will be playing in Europe next season. David Moyes has done a wonderful job with such limited funds and has proved that you don’t need the best players as long as you get the work rate and tactics right. On that level Martin O Neill has also done a great job at Villa and a champions league spot would cement his popularity at Villa Park
Verdict
Both are missing some influential players and it’s hard to see where Everton goals will come from. On saying that Villa’s greatest strength is their attacking style but Everton can be tough to break down.
I can’t see past the draw here.
PICK
Draw (3.3 @ betfred) 4 points
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Derby V Manchester United
Not many teams have defeated Man Utd this season but Derby are one of the few who have managed that feat winning 1 – 0 in the carling cup some few weeks ago. It will be a big ask to see lightening strike twice though especially considering United’s recent run of form and defensive displays.
In the return leg of that carling cup tie Derby again made a nuisance of themselves before eventually going down 4 – 2. With those type of gritty, fighting displays there is no chance that Alex Ferguson will be taking them lightly today. Nigel Clough has pulled them out of the relegation places though the season is far from over they have looked much better in recent weeks.
Fergie is still on for an ambitious quadruple of titles this year and with them already in the carling cup and within touching distance of the premiership trophy it would be brave to bet against them doing so.
Van Der Sar has been keeping clean sheets by the bucketload although it could be said that United have been grinding out results as opposed to great attacking play.
Verdict
There will be no complacency from United today and even if Fergie mixes youth with experience they should still be good enough. Lessons have been learnt from the previous games and there will be no slip-ups today. United to win 2 or 3 nil.
PICK
Man United – 1.25 (1.91 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Friday, February 13, 2009
Football for Saturday
Burnley V Wolves
This game should prove to be a cracker as Wolves seek to stop the rot and Burnley are also trying to get their home form back on track. Burnley are sitting in 10th and just three points off the top-six, ready to pounce and what better way to do it then against the pacesetters Wolves. Northern Ireland forward Martin Paterson is the Clarets’ attacking threat with 17 goals in all competitions, while the creativity of Robbie Blake and Chris Eagles are vital to Burnleys attack.
Wolves on the other hand have Lethal front two Sylvan Ebanks-Blake and Chris Iwelumo who have 33 goals between them.
This fixture scream goals to me as Wolves are a mixed boat at the moment, they have signed Berra from Hearts in order to steady the ship but still look open at the back. They have countered this by just outscoring their opponents which has worked well but only against certain teams. I cant see it working against Burnley because the hosts are also more than capable of scoring.
Two attacking team and we should see plenty of goals.
PICK
Over 3.5 goals (3 @ sporting bet) 5 points
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Swansea V Fulham
Im surprised at the odds here, ok so it’s a premiership team against a championship team but this is the Fa cup and Swansea have already accounted for premiership opposition this year beating Portsmouth. So Pompey are no great shakes but beating the reigning cup holders will have done lots for their confidence. Added to that Swansea have an excellent home record and are 15 games unbeaten in the championship.
Fulham are going well this year but have struggled to score goals. They have been helped by some excellent defensive display though saving the blushes of the forwards. Sitting in 10th has probably exceeded most fans expectations but the premiership still remains the priority. Despite winning twice away in the cup so far Fulham remain a very average outfit on the road and a high flying Swansea side should be able to beat them at home where they always look threatening.
Pick
Swansea win (2.63 @ pinnacle) 5 points
This game should prove to be a cracker as Wolves seek to stop the rot and Burnley are also trying to get their home form back on track. Burnley are sitting in 10th and just three points off the top-six, ready to pounce and what better way to do it then against the pacesetters Wolves. Northern Ireland forward Martin Paterson is the Clarets’ attacking threat with 17 goals in all competitions, while the creativity of Robbie Blake and Chris Eagles are vital to Burnleys attack.
Wolves on the other hand have Lethal front two Sylvan Ebanks-Blake and Chris Iwelumo who have 33 goals between them.
This fixture scream goals to me as Wolves are a mixed boat at the moment, they have signed Berra from Hearts in order to steady the ship but still look open at the back. They have countered this by just outscoring their opponents which has worked well but only against certain teams. I cant see it working against Burnley because the hosts are also more than capable of scoring.
Two attacking team and we should see plenty of goals.
PICK
Over 3.5 goals (3 @ sporting bet) 5 points
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Swansea V Fulham
Im surprised at the odds here, ok so it’s a premiership team against a championship team but this is the Fa cup and Swansea have already accounted for premiership opposition this year beating Portsmouth. So Pompey are no great shakes but beating the reigning cup holders will have done lots for their confidence. Added to that Swansea have an excellent home record and are 15 games unbeaten in the championship.
Fulham are going well this year but have struggled to score goals. They have been helped by some excellent defensive display though saving the blushes of the forwards. Sitting in 10th has probably exceeded most fans expectations but the premiership still remains the priority. Despite winning twice away in the cup so far Fulham remain a very average outfit on the road and a high flying Swansea side should be able to beat them at home where they always look threatening.
Pick
Swansea win (2.63 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Six Nations
France V Scotland
I was waiting and waiting all week to see the lines that the bookies would show for this. They were very slow to be the first to put out prices or set the lines for the total points and total tries but bet 365 were first to take the plunge!
France were unlucky to go down in Ireland last week, they played some good open rugby, a little ill disciplined at times but nonetheless some good open play and scored some nice tries.
Both teams have made changes and the French have brought lock Romain Millo-Chluski and props Fabien Barcella and Nicolas Mas into their pack with the one change in the backs sees winger Heymans come in for Malzieu. The introduction of Heymans is good for my bet of total tries because he is a good runner and adds a good creative edge to the side. I like watching the French play, they combine a good tough scrum with hard hitting but have a lot of pace and flair on the wings and their games are usually very open and easy on the eye. Having lost one game already its vital that they win each of the remaining games and I have a funny feeling that points total might yet come into play for the winners so France will be pushing right to the end.
Scotland were a huge disappointment last weekend. The heart and passion was missing and I had hoped that they would give the Welsh a decent game and even cause an upset but right from the get go they looked in danger, in fact every time Wales went forward they looked like scoring. Scotland attacked at times but lacked the killer punch at the business end and this cost them big time. They looked a lot sharper in the final 10 – 15 minutes but this was only because Wales had introduced a few replacements and had been reduced to 14 men. Gregor Townsend has spoke this week about how the Scottish have had a good record this season regarding Scottish clubs going to France but I think he’s only trying to give his players some confidence which wont be enough methinks!
Frank Hadden has made five changes, bringing back brothers Thom and Max Evans. Thom replaces the injured Simon Webster while Max is in for Ben Cairns. The other changes see Sean Lamont make way for Simon Danielli on the other wing, Strokosch for Ally Hogg in the back row and Alasdair Dickinson comes in for fellow prop Geoff Cross.
Verdict
Both sides are coming off defeats and both have points to prove but the French are definitely the stronger team and have all the advantages. What do Scotland do? Should they take on the French at their own game and run the ball or play a possession game and rely on Patterson to gain the hard yards? Neither will work for them im afraid and their best chance is to keep the score respectable. They just don’t have the creative edge needed. France can create something out of nothing and should win this by some 18 +
PICK
France to score over 3.5 tries ( 2.2 @ paddy power) 5 points
Cedric Heymans anytime tryscorer ( 3 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Wales V England
The big news here is that Shane Williams is out wit injury but I get the feeling this might pan out better for the Welsh than the English, simply because much is being made of his absence in the media and very often players can up their performance when one of their star players is missing. Wales could have beaten Scotland by 20 + points with ease last weekend but took their foot off the pedal when the game was out of reach in the closing quarter. There will be no easing off tomorrow though you can be sure if they are in the position to do so! For the record, Mark Jones has stepped in for the injured Williams. The most interesting part of this game will be how Wales cope with the pressure of being overwhelming favourites against their old foe. Not too many times in the past have Wales been installed as 10 point favourites and only time will tell if they survive under the weight of expectation.
England were effectively handed the game last weekend as error after error from the Italians handed them easy possession and they didn’t have to dig too deep to win. Martin Johnson may have been a fine player for England but he’s finding out now that being a good player doesn’t matter in this case as the media are sharpening their knifes for him. He has made several changes for this clash with Joe Worsley has been recalled in place of Steffon Armitage, Tindall has been brought back in after missing last weeks game with a back injury whilst Ben Foden and Jamie Noon have been dropped from the panel.
Verdict
Most are predicting an easy Welsh win but its not so clear cut for me. England are still a bit of an unknown force as last weeks game didn’t show too much, if any of what they have to offer. One things for sure and that is that they wont want to be humiliated at the Millennium stadium. The pressure is more on the hosts and teams in the same position as England are now can often produce shocks. Wales to win but closer than people expect.
PICK
Wales by 12 or less (2.87 @ bet365) 4 points
I was waiting and waiting all week to see the lines that the bookies would show for this. They were very slow to be the first to put out prices or set the lines for the total points and total tries but bet 365 were first to take the plunge!
France were unlucky to go down in Ireland last week, they played some good open rugby, a little ill disciplined at times but nonetheless some good open play and scored some nice tries.
Both teams have made changes and the French have brought lock Romain Millo-Chluski and props Fabien Barcella and Nicolas Mas into their pack with the one change in the backs sees winger Heymans come in for Malzieu. The introduction of Heymans is good for my bet of total tries because he is a good runner and adds a good creative edge to the side. I like watching the French play, they combine a good tough scrum with hard hitting but have a lot of pace and flair on the wings and their games are usually very open and easy on the eye. Having lost one game already its vital that they win each of the remaining games and I have a funny feeling that points total might yet come into play for the winners so France will be pushing right to the end.
Scotland were a huge disappointment last weekend. The heart and passion was missing and I had hoped that they would give the Welsh a decent game and even cause an upset but right from the get go they looked in danger, in fact every time Wales went forward they looked like scoring. Scotland attacked at times but lacked the killer punch at the business end and this cost them big time. They looked a lot sharper in the final 10 – 15 minutes but this was only because Wales had introduced a few replacements and had been reduced to 14 men. Gregor Townsend has spoke this week about how the Scottish have had a good record this season regarding Scottish clubs going to France but I think he’s only trying to give his players some confidence which wont be enough methinks!
Frank Hadden has made five changes, bringing back brothers Thom and Max Evans. Thom replaces the injured Simon Webster while Max is in for Ben Cairns. The other changes see Sean Lamont make way for Simon Danielli on the other wing, Strokosch for Ally Hogg in the back row and Alasdair Dickinson comes in for fellow prop Geoff Cross.
Verdict
Both sides are coming off defeats and both have points to prove but the French are definitely the stronger team and have all the advantages. What do Scotland do? Should they take on the French at their own game and run the ball or play a possession game and rely on Patterson to gain the hard yards? Neither will work for them im afraid and their best chance is to keep the score respectable. They just don’t have the creative edge needed. France can create something out of nothing and should win this by some 18 +
PICK
France to score over 3.5 tries ( 2.2 @ paddy power) 5 points
Cedric Heymans anytime tryscorer ( 3 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Wales V England
The big news here is that Shane Williams is out wit injury but I get the feeling this might pan out better for the Welsh than the English, simply because much is being made of his absence in the media and very often players can up their performance when one of their star players is missing. Wales could have beaten Scotland by 20 + points with ease last weekend but took their foot off the pedal when the game was out of reach in the closing quarter. There will be no easing off tomorrow though you can be sure if they are in the position to do so! For the record, Mark Jones has stepped in for the injured Williams. The most interesting part of this game will be how Wales cope with the pressure of being overwhelming favourites against their old foe. Not too many times in the past have Wales been installed as 10 point favourites and only time will tell if they survive under the weight of expectation.
England were effectively handed the game last weekend as error after error from the Italians handed them easy possession and they didn’t have to dig too deep to win. Martin Johnson may have been a fine player for England but he’s finding out now that being a good player doesn’t matter in this case as the media are sharpening their knifes for him. He has made several changes for this clash with Joe Worsley has been recalled in place of Steffon Armitage, Tindall has been brought back in after missing last weeks game with a back injury whilst Ben Foden and Jamie Noon have been dropped from the panel.
Verdict
Most are predicting an easy Welsh win but its not so clear cut for me. England are still a bit of an unknown force as last weeks game didn’t show too much, if any of what they have to offer. One things for sure and that is that they wont want to be humiliated at the Millennium stadium. The pressure is more on the hosts and teams in the same position as England are now can often produce shocks. Wales to win but closer than people expect.
PICK
Wales by 12 or less (2.87 @ bet365) 4 points
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Losing bets
Well we were just 46 seconds into the Irish game before a defensive error wiped out my two bets! Bugger that anyway. Next write ups should be up tomorrow or friday night with 3 full previews on the six nations games and a look at the weekend football action. Until then good luck!
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Ireland V Georgia
Ireland V Georgia
If theres one thing for sure about this game its this, it won’t be pretty and it will most likely be a dull affair. A win for Ireland will put them level on points on top of the group and in perfect position when they take on Italy in the next round. Giovanni Trapattoni has done well so far but is not the type of manager to install an attacking style of play to his sides. Irelands play so far has been based on a defensive style and they were lucky to have got a 2 –1 in the reverse fixture. Lucky because of trouble in Georgia at the time the game was played thousands of kilometres from their home stadium in Tbilisi in Germany. Regarding team news Paul Mcshane is the only doubt but this may be a blessing in disguise as he is a liability in the Irish defence. Shay Given will have taken huge confidence from his debut for Man City at the weekend. The defence looks to be in good order as Kilbane and Dunne are always dependable and theres a nice balance of creativity and hard graft in the middle of the field. Up front Keane will be in the spotlight and ready to impress. Doyle was named as Irish player of the year for 2008 last Sunday and he never disappoints in the green jersey.
Probable line up
Given - Kelly, Kilbane, Dunne, O'Shea - Whelan, Andrews, McGeady, Duff - Doyle, Keane
Georgia have been a tough side to break down and were unlucky to give up home advantage to the Irish in a 2 – 1 defeat. Hector Cuper is facing a huge task on Wednesday as he is without Levan Mchedlidze and Levan Kenia, two of his most promising attackers but Kakha Kaladze has recently recovered from injury and is ready to take his place in the line-up. The defeat to Ireland was followed by another to Italy and a pair of draws to Cyprus and Bulgaria. They are more than a capable outfit though and are well organised and pushed Italy all the way. Khizanishvili and Kakha Kaladze are two of their more recognisable names and Georgia will need good games from these two experienced players to have any chance of success.
Verdict
Im not thrilled by the odds on the home win though im very confident we will pick up the 3 points. Irelands defence looks solid enough and with Georgia missing their attacking threat im expecting a clean sheet from Ireland and a one or two nil win.
PICK
Ireland to win 1 – 0 (6.5 @ bet365) 2 points
Ireland to win 2 – 0 (6 @ bet365) 2 points
If theres one thing for sure about this game its this, it won’t be pretty and it will most likely be a dull affair. A win for Ireland will put them level on points on top of the group and in perfect position when they take on Italy in the next round. Giovanni Trapattoni has done well so far but is not the type of manager to install an attacking style of play to his sides. Irelands play so far has been based on a defensive style and they were lucky to have got a 2 –1 in the reverse fixture. Lucky because of trouble in Georgia at the time the game was played thousands of kilometres from their home stadium in Tbilisi in Germany. Regarding team news Paul Mcshane is the only doubt but this may be a blessing in disguise as he is a liability in the Irish defence. Shay Given will have taken huge confidence from his debut for Man City at the weekend. The defence looks to be in good order as Kilbane and Dunne are always dependable and theres a nice balance of creativity and hard graft in the middle of the field. Up front Keane will be in the spotlight and ready to impress. Doyle was named as Irish player of the year for 2008 last Sunday and he never disappoints in the green jersey.
Probable line up
Given - Kelly, Kilbane, Dunne, O'Shea - Whelan, Andrews, McGeady, Duff - Doyle, Keane
Georgia have been a tough side to break down and were unlucky to give up home advantage to the Irish in a 2 – 1 defeat. Hector Cuper is facing a huge task on Wednesday as he is without Levan Mchedlidze and Levan Kenia, two of his most promising attackers but Kakha Kaladze has recently recovered from injury and is ready to take his place in the line-up. The defeat to Ireland was followed by another to Italy and a pair of draws to Cyprus and Bulgaria. They are more than a capable outfit though and are well organised and pushed Italy all the way. Khizanishvili and Kakha Kaladze are two of their more recognisable names and Georgia will need good games from these two experienced players to have any chance of success.
Verdict
Im not thrilled by the odds on the home win though im very confident we will pick up the 3 points. Irelands defence looks solid enough and with Georgia missing their attacking threat im expecting a clean sheet from Ireland and a one or two nil win.
PICK
Ireland to win 1 – 0 (6.5 @ bet365) 2 points
Ireland to win 2 – 0 (6 @ bet365) 2 points
Friday, February 6, 2009
Saturday Picks
Unfortunatley my internet is still down so i only have a few brief moments to get my picks up before im cut off once again.
Football
Sunderland (1.83 @ betfred) 5 points
Man City - 1 (2.1 @ bet365) 6 points
HT Draw / FT Chelsea ( 5 @ betfred) 3 points
Rugby
Ireland to win by 1 - 12 points (2.75 @ bet365) 5 points
England to win by 1 - 12 points (3.1 @ bet365) 3 points
Sorry its so brief, especially the rugby as i had so much planned for the weekend but it will have to do. Good luck!
Football
Sunderland (1.83 @ betfred) 5 points
Man City - 1 (2.1 @ bet365) 6 points
HT Draw / FT Chelsea ( 5 @ betfred) 3 points
Rugby
Ireland to win by 1 - 12 points (2.75 @ bet365) 5 points
England to win by 1 - 12 points (3.1 @ bet365) 3 points
Sorry its so brief, especially the rugby as i had so much planned for the weekend but it will have to do. Good luck!
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Bad weather
Unfortunately due to the bad weather my internet connection is down at the moment so i have no previews done for tonights games. As regards the games tonight i quite fance Burnley to knock West Brom out of the FA Cup and Wolves to take another 3 points in the championship against Norwich. Untill i get my connection up and running effectively again i wont be able to do any previews. The bad weather is playing havoc with things at the moment so best keep stakes small if you decide to have a play tonight.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Tonights GAA action
The 125th anniversary of the GAA is being celebrated tonight with a fireworks display reportedly in the €500,000 mark. This will kick off the action before Dublin and Tyrone at a sold out Croke Park. As its the first round il be leaving it go from a betting perspective as i may do tomorrow also. Players are just back from a long break, some have had club action to keep them ticking over and some have not so its hard to know just yet where some players are at fitness wise. It can take a round or two to focus some teams so for me tonight no bet.
On saying that, i wouldnt put anyone off backing Tyrone, Dublin are experimenting with a new look full back line which could very easily backfire on them. Should be a good open game and im looking forward to it.
On saying that, i wouldnt put anyone off backing Tyrone, Dublin are experimenting with a new look full back line which could very easily backfire on them. Should be a good open game and im looking forward to it.
Saturday's bets
Football first but il be back with a look at the GAA action on offer tonight
Aston Villa V Wigan
Emile Heskey didn’t have to wait too long before having to face his old employers and teammates at Wigan. Heskey made an immediate impact scoring on his debut and his strength and ability may be just what Villa need to stay in the top 4. I like the look of the odds on him to score at anytime today. He’s upfront with Agbonlahor and there are bound to be plenty of chances for him. Agbonlahor has a very good strike rate against the Latics having scored 3 times in the last 4 games against them which throws me off taking Heskey to score first. It’s hard to predict the games itself as Villa could be accused of having a lot of luck in their recent good run. They were lucky to hold on to the 3 points against Pompey midweek and haven’t really given a complete performance yet.
Wigan could also have snatched 3 points from Liverpool midweek but in my mind this was down to the negative approach from Rafa Benitez. Trying to hold onto a 1 - 0 lead is risky business and Wigan fully deserved their point.
Verdict
This should be a decent games with plenty of chances and who knows better the strengths and weaknesses of the Wigan defence than Heskey. There is always an air of inevitability about a player scoring against his former club and as Bellamy proved against Newcastle on Wednesday it happens quite a lot.
PICK
Heskey anytime scorer ( 3 @ skybet) 4 points
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Manchester United V Everton
I have two picks for this game at long odds that I have thought to be “value” and worth a shot.
First of all, Man Utd have not conceded in 1,032 minutes in the premiership, which is a remarkable achievement. United tend to outplay their opposition from time to time and it there are times when Van Der Sar does not have to do much for large periods of the game. Keeping your concentration is a hard thing to do in games like this and this makes the record all the more amazing. United have looked like regaining the premiership for a long time now and it will take a special effort from the Toffees if they are to pull something from this game. However they are in good form themselves and outplayed Arsenal for long periods of the game on Wednesday night before a late goal from Van Persie shared the points. Two consecutive draws with Liverpool preceded the Arsenal game in which they also played ok.
Manchester have not looked like dropping points in a while but could find it tough today provided that Everton are up for the challenge. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to See Uniteds clean sheet record beaten today and im hoping that Everton can score first and make a game of it as Spurs did last week in the FA cup.
Verdict
As I said I think Everton can be stiff opposition and can make it tough for United. Two picks I see in with a great shout are United to come from behind to win the game, as they did last week. The other is for it to be a draw at HT and United to win at FT which is also a huge possibility if Everton come to Old Trafford to defend as teams often do.
Big odds, small stakes
PICK
Man Utd to come from behind and win (11 @ paddy power) 1 point
Draw HT – Man Utd FT (4.5 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Aston Villa V Wigan
Emile Heskey didn’t have to wait too long before having to face his old employers and teammates at Wigan. Heskey made an immediate impact scoring on his debut and his strength and ability may be just what Villa need to stay in the top 4. I like the look of the odds on him to score at anytime today. He’s upfront with Agbonlahor and there are bound to be plenty of chances for him. Agbonlahor has a very good strike rate against the Latics having scored 3 times in the last 4 games against them which throws me off taking Heskey to score first. It’s hard to predict the games itself as Villa could be accused of having a lot of luck in their recent good run. They were lucky to hold on to the 3 points against Pompey midweek and haven’t really given a complete performance yet.
Wigan could also have snatched 3 points from Liverpool midweek but in my mind this was down to the negative approach from Rafa Benitez. Trying to hold onto a 1 - 0 lead is risky business and Wigan fully deserved their point.
Verdict
This should be a decent games with plenty of chances and who knows better the strengths and weaknesses of the Wigan defence than Heskey. There is always an air of inevitability about a player scoring against his former club and as Bellamy proved against Newcastle on Wednesday it happens quite a lot.
PICK
Heskey anytime scorer ( 3 @ skybet) 4 points
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Manchester United V Everton
I have two picks for this game at long odds that I have thought to be “value” and worth a shot.
First of all, Man Utd have not conceded in 1,032 minutes in the premiership, which is a remarkable achievement. United tend to outplay their opposition from time to time and it there are times when Van Der Sar does not have to do much for large periods of the game. Keeping your concentration is a hard thing to do in games like this and this makes the record all the more amazing. United have looked like regaining the premiership for a long time now and it will take a special effort from the Toffees if they are to pull something from this game. However they are in good form themselves and outplayed Arsenal for long periods of the game on Wednesday night before a late goal from Van Persie shared the points. Two consecutive draws with Liverpool preceded the Arsenal game in which they also played ok.
Manchester have not looked like dropping points in a while but could find it tough today provided that Everton are up for the challenge. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to See Uniteds clean sheet record beaten today and im hoping that Everton can score first and make a game of it as Spurs did last week in the FA cup.
Verdict
As I said I think Everton can be stiff opposition and can make it tough for United. Two picks I see in with a great shout are United to come from behind to win the game, as they did last week. The other is for it to be a draw at HT and United to win at FT which is also a huge possibility if Everton come to Old Trafford to defend as teams often do.
Big odds, small stakes
PICK
Man Utd to come from behind and win (11 @ paddy power) 1 point
Draw HT – Man Utd FT (4.5 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Wednesday night
Ouch, tough night with just the one winner. Pompey kicked away enough chances to win the game never mind draw and Spurs finally clicked, for 45 mins at least.
Manchester City V Newcastle United
You do get the feeling that Man City are due a change in fortune at some stage and it could finally come against a poor travelling Newcastle side on Wednesday. They have been fairly erratic but are capable of decent performances especially at Eastlands where they seem a little more comfortable. The recent signing of Craig Bellamy and Nigel De Jong are big addition’s to the squad and should stabilize things a bit. With all their money there has been plenty of action in the transfer market with a ridiculous amount reportedly offered to Kaka which he refused. Also to add a little spice to this encounter they are supposedly very close to getting the signature of Shay Given. Robinho also has a big point to prove to the fans after going AWOL in Tenerife.
Newcastle are struggling and Kinnear’s honeymoon period is long over. They have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 games and were humiliated 3 – 0 at Blackburn on their last away trip. Apart from Joey Barton and Jose Enrique’s on field argument during the Blackburn match, it is reported that there have been some training ground incidents also which has done little for morale. Sitting 2 points above relegation is a dodgy spot to be and there is pressure on players and staff to start collecting some points.
Verdict
It’s only a matter of time before Man City click and their two new signings could prove to be the inspiration behind a win. Newcastle are unpredictable but I don’t see them causing an upset here.
Pick
Man City – 1 (2.31 @ bet365) 5 points
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Chelsea V Middlesborough
My first thoughts were Chelsea to win this very easy but on reflection im not so sure. Chelsea’s home form has not been so hot and their confidence looks shot since Liverpool broke their unbeaten record. They were very close to being humiliated by lowly Stoke last time out before two very late Lampard goals stole the points for them. 3 points are critical after Man Utd's show at West Brom and Chelsea need to keep up the pace.
It seems like forever since Middlesborough won a game (fa cup aside) and they have now lost 4 on the trot away from home. However, they are a notoriously tricky team to call and ive lost plenty backing and opposing them in the past. They seem to save their best for the big teams and I don’t see Wednesday being any different. Downing is key to them and if his crosses are on target then they could test a Chelsea defence that look shaky at times.
Verdict
Chelsea have been level at the break in their last three games and Boro will come with a defensive attitude. With that in mind it may be worth chancing that Boro will hold Chelsea out until the 2nd half.
Pick
Draw HT/ Chelsea FT (5 @ VC) 5 points
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Blackburn V Bolton
Big Sam returns to his old club and this another game that screams out a low scoring dull affair. Allardyce has introduced some stability and is unbeaten as of yet and faces a Bolton side that has slumped a little recently.
Blackburn have won 3 and drawn 3 since Ince left the club and while they are still bottom they have improved their chances of survival considerably.
Bolton have lost 8 of the last 9 in all competitions but on closer inspection have had to face Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa in that sequence which is a nightmare run of fixtures.
Verdict
This is a derby game so anything can happen but Bolton will be glad to have some very tough games out of the way. This will be tough, uncompromising and we probably wont see too many goals but I fancy Bolton to battle their way to a draw. Kevin Nolan is back from suspension and he will be key.
0 – 0 or 1 – 1 id say
PICK
Draw (3.34 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Manchester City V Newcastle United
You do get the feeling that Man City are due a change in fortune at some stage and it could finally come against a poor travelling Newcastle side on Wednesday. They have been fairly erratic but are capable of decent performances especially at Eastlands where they seem a little more comfortable. The recent signing of Craig Bellamy and Nigel De Jong are big addition’s to the squad and should stabilize things a bit. With all their money there has been plenty of action in the transfer market with a ridiculous amount reportedly offered to Kaka which he refused. Also to add a little spice to this encounter they are supposedly very close to getting the signature of Shay Given. Robinho also has a big point to prove to the fans after going AWOL in Tenerife.
Newcastle are struggling and Kinnear’s honeymoon period is long over. They have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 games and were humiliated 3 – 0 at Blackburn on their last away trip. Apart from Joey Barton and Jose Enrique’s on field argument during the Blackburn match, it is reported that there have been some training ground incidents also which has done little for morale. Sitting 2 points above relegation is a dodgy spot to be and there is pressure on players and staff to start collecting some points.
Verdict
It’s only a matter of time before Man City click and their two new signings could prove to be the inspiration behind a win. Newcastle are unpredictable but I don’t see them causing an upset here.
Pick
Man City – 1 (2.31 @ bet365) 5 points
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Chelsea V Middlesborough
My first thoughts were Chelsea to win this very easy but on reflection im not so sure. Chelsea’s home form has not been so hot and their confidence looks shot since Liverpool broke their unbeaten record. They were very close to being humiliated by lowly Stoke last time out before two very late Lampard goals stole the points for them. 3 points are critical after Man Utd's show at West Brom and Chelsea need to keep up the pace.
It seems like forever since Middlesborough won a game (fa cup aside) and they have now lost 4 on the trot away from home. However, they are a notoriously tricky team to call and ive lost plenty backing and opposing them in the past. They seem to save their best for the big teams and I don’t see Wednesday being any different. Downing is key to them and if his crosses are on target then they could test a Chelsea defence that look shaky at times.
Verdict
Chelsea have been level at the break in their last three games and Boro will come with a defensive attitude. With that in mind it may be worth chancing that Boro will hold Chelsea out until the 2nd half.
Pick
Draw HT/ Chelsea FT (5 @ VC) 5 points
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Blackburn V Bolton
Big Sam returns to his old club and this another game that screams out a low scoring dull affair. Allardyce has introduced some stability and is unbeaten as of yet and faces a Bolton side that has slumped a little recently.
Blackburn have won 3 and drawn 3 since Ince left the club and while they are still bottom they have improved their chances of survival considerably.
Bolton have lost 8 of the last 9 in all competitions but on closer inspection have had to face Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa in that sequence which is a nightmare run of fixtures.
Verdict
This is a derby game so anything can happen but Bolton will be glad to have some very tough games out of the way. This will be tough, uncompromising and we probably wont see too many goals but I fancy Bolton to battle their way to a draw. Kevin Nolan is back from suspension and he will be key.
0 – 0 or 1 – 1 id say
PICK
Draw (3.34 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Tuesday night
West Brom V Manchester United
Its fairly hard to argue with the odds on the away win here as it is top versus bottom and United are in top form.
On that basis its better to look elsewhere for a bit of value and I like the 4.6 about it being a draw at half time before United pull away to win by full time. Manchester United’s last 5 away games have been close affairs and there has only 3 goals in just over 45of minutes of play.
West Brom would be more than happy to take the point and they will probably set out to defend from the start. This is risky business though especially against a team like United that can cut open defences at ease. Their form has picked up a little in recent times and they will be well up for this one coming off a 3 – 0 win against Boro last time out.
United are full of injuries at the moment and it looks as if Fletcher may be used at right back which is hardly ideal. # R. Ferdinand
Hargreaves, W. Brown, Evra, Rooney, Anderson, Evans, Welbeck and Da Silva are all out. They will also need a much better display and attitude from Ronaldo.
Verdict
United may be well short on numbers but its still hard to see them not picking up the 3 points. Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Ronaldo is a formidable midfield and they should provide plenty of chances for Berbatov and Tevez. West Brom should make this interesting but I can’t see them holding United out for the full 90
Pick
Draw HT/ Man United FT 4.6 @ canbet ( 4 points)
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Sunderland V Fulham
Sometimes you just see a fixture that screams out 0 - 0 to you and this is one of them. My brother had the misfortune of getting a free ticket to the reverse fixture at Craven cottage and he was so bored that he left shortly after half time. Ricky Sbragia has been pretty quiet on the transfer front though Chimbonda has returned to Spurs. Sbragia will also be hoping that striker Kenwyne Jones does not head for the exit also.
Fulham have lost Jimmy Bullard to Hull, a strange move as he was an important player to them but for a fee they couldn’t afford to turn down. Traditionally, Fulham are very strong at home, and rarely win on their travels, this year has been much of the same though they have taken 5 draws, most notably at Liverpool and Villa.
I could blag my way through a long preview here but I wont. I don’t think either have enough creativity to create too many chances. Fulham tend to play defensively and be happy for a point on the road and tomorrow should be no different. If this game is scoreless approaching the 60 minute mark then both teams will be more than happy to settle for the draw as Sunderland especially need some points on the board. 0 – 0 for me or else the odd goal to settle it.
PICK
Sunderland V Fulham under 1.5 goals ( 2.9 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Tottenham V Stoke
Interestingly nobody is giving the visitors a chance here despite the fact that they were only a few minutes away from winning at Stamford bridge just 2 weeks ago. Lets look at the facts first, these two teams are level on points, Spurs have only won once in their last 5 games at the lane (a 1 – 0 win over Blackburn way back in November) and have only scored twice in those five games, Hardly the home record to strike fear into the opposition.
Stoke’s record is not too inspiring either to be honest having lost 4 of the last 5 away. However their recent attitude has been spot on and they will take heart from their display at Chelsea where they deserved a point at the very least. Spurs have had a lot of game time recently and injury problems and Cudicini could be thrown straight into goal for his debut.
Verdict
Tottenham have not done enough for me to recommend to anyone backing them at circa 1.6 so il be siding with the visitors. While results haven’t been too hot for Stoke they seem to be at least operating as a unit which is more than can be said for the home side here. Stoke draw no bet
PICK
Stoke draw no bet ( 4.5 @ paddy power) 3 points
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Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Can it get any worse for Pompey? Dumped out of the FA cup to Swansea and confidence seems to be at an all time low. Villa on the other hand remain in the top four and have been in top form and are unbeaten in the league since November 9th. Home and away they have looked good and they will be quietly confident of taking 3 points at Fratton Park.
Both sides have been involved in the transfer window as Pompey have lost Diarra to Real Madrid, Defoe to Spurs and signed Mullins and Pele also taking Pennant on loan. Villa seem to be under pressure to hold onto Ashley Young while they have picked up Emile Heskey from Wigan.
To my mind this game is sh*t or bust for Tony Adams and he will be looking for a response from his players, they have only taken two points from the last 18 on offer and are heading for trouble if they don’t start picking up points.
Verdict
Aston Villa are a little too short for my liking and have relied on a little luck in their recent games. That luck has to run out eventually and Pompeys has to improve. On a cold damp night in the South I think both will cancel each other out and will have to settle for a point each.
Portsmouth /Aston Villa draw (3.45 @ pinnacle) 4 points
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Hereford V Millwall
Hereford may be 2 places from bottom but have shown recent signs of improvement and have a great chance to take 3 points against Millwall on Tuesday. They put 5 past 3rd placed Oldham in their last home outing and Oldham are a dam good team. Steve Guinan has nine goals in his last 11 matches and they will look to him to get them out of trouble at the foot of the table. Millwall suffered a 2 – 0 defeat to Hull at the weekend which ended their FA Cup dreams for another year. They are in the playoff spots at the moment but automatic promotion is still very much within their grasp. This is a game that will test their credentials, as a long trip to Hereford on a Tuesday evening is no soft touch. Millwall do their best work at home where they have the second best record in the league and their away form is erratic.
Hereford to follow up on their excellent win against Oldham. Draw no bet in case of a draw
Pick
Hereford draw no bet ( 2.25@ bet365) 5 points
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Barnet V Shrewsbury
My final pick for Tuesdays games. Barnet’s displays have improved with their managerial change at Christmas and they look good to cause a slight shock with a win over Shrewsbury. They have looked a lot more composed at the back recently and are not shipping as many soft goals as they did previously. Despite going down to 10 men in their last two games they have still managed to draw both games and if they can keep 11 players on the field then they have a great chance against a Shrewsbury side that has not won an away game in 5 months! That’s a long time to go without winning and that kind of thing plays on the mind of players, especially the longer it goes on. The goals have dried up for the visitors too and this looks like a sure fire unders game but il stick with the nice odds on the Barnet win, draw no bet for me though as im playing it a bit conservatively!
PICK
Barnet draw no bet (2.3 @ VC) 5 points
Its fairly hard to argue with the odds on the away win here as it is top versus bottom and United are in top form.
On that basis its better to look elsewhere for a bit of value and I like the 4.6 about it being a draw at half time before United pull away to win by full time. Manchester United’s last 5 away games have been close affairs and there has only 3 goals in just over 45of minutes of play.
West Brom would be more than happy to take the point and they will probably set out to defend from the start. This is risky business though especially against a team like United that can cut open defences at ease. Their form has picked up a little in recent times and they will be well up for this one coming off a 3 – 0 win against Boro last time out.
United are full of injuries at the moment and it looks as if Fletcher may be used at right back which is hardly ideal. # R. Ferdinand
Hargreaves, W. Brown, Evra, Rooney, Anderson, Evans, Welbeck and Da Silva are all out. They will also need a much better display and attitude from Ronaldo.
Verdict
United may be well short on numbers but its still hard to see them not picking up the 3 points. Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Ronaldo is a formidable midfield and they should provide plenty of chances for Berbatov and Tevez. West Brom should make this interesting but I can’t see them holding United out for the full 90
Pick
Draw HT/ Man United FT 4.6 @ canbet ( 4 points)
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Sunderland V Fulham
Sometimes you just see a fixture that screams out 0 - 0 to you and this is one of them. My brother had the misfortune of getting a free ticket to the reverse fixture at Craven cottage and he was so bored that he left shortly after half time. Ricky Sbragia has been pretty quiet on the transfer front though Chimbonda has returned to Spurs. Sbragia will also be hoping that striker Kenwyne Jones does not head for the exit also.
Fulham have lost Jimmy Bullard to Hull, a strange move as he was an important player to them but for a fee they couldn’t afford to turn down. Traditionally, Fulham are very strong at home, and rarely win on their travels, this year has been much of the same though they have taken 5 draws, most notably at Liverpool and Villa.
I could blag my way through a long preview here but I wont. I don’t think either have enough creativity to create too many chances. Fulham tend to play defensively and be happy for a point on the road and tomorrow should be no different. If this game is scoreless approaching the 60 minute mark then both teams will be more than happy to settle for the draw as Sunderland especially need some points on the board. 0 – 0 for me or else the odd goal to settle it.
PICK
Sunderland V Fulham under 1.5 goals ( 2.9 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Tottenham V Stoke
Interestingly nobody is giving the visitors a chance here despite the fact that they were only a few minutes away from winning at Stamford bridge just 2 weeks ago. Lets look at the facts first, these two teams are level on points, Spurs have only won once in their last 5 games at the lane (a 1 – 0 win over Blackburn way back in November) and have only scored twice in those five games, Hardly the home record to strike fear into the opposition.
Stoke’s record is not too inspiring either to be honest having lost 4 of the last 5 away. However their recent attitude has been spot on and they will take heart from their display at Chelsea where they deserved a point at the very least. Spurs have had a lot of game time recently and injury problems and Cudicini could be thrown straight into goal for his debut.
Verdict
Tottenham have not done enough for me to recommend to anyone backing them at circa 1.6 so il be siding with the visitors. While results haven’t been too hot for Stoke they seem to be at least operating as a unit which is more than can be said for the home side here. Stoke draw no bet
PICK
Stoke draw no bet ( 4.5 @ paddy power) 3 points
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Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Can it get any worse for Pompey? Dumped out of the FA cup to Swansea and confidence seems to be at an all time low. Villa on the other hand remain in the top four and have been in top form and are unbeaten in the league since November 9th. Home and away they have looked good and they will be quietly confident of taking 3 points at Fratton Park.
Both sides have been involved in the transfer window as Pompey have lost Diarra to Real Madrid, Defoe to Spurs and signed Mullins and Pele also taking Pennant on loan. Villa seem to be under pressure to hold onto Ashley Young while they have picked up Emile Heskey from Wigan.
To my mind this game is sh*t or bust for Tony Adams and he will be looking for a response from his players, they have only taken two points from the last 18 on offer and are heading for trouble if they don’t start picking up points.
Verdict
Aston Villa are a little too short for my liking and have relied on a little luck in their recent games. That luck has to run out eventually and Pompeys has to improve. On a cold damp night in the South I think both will cancel each other out and will have to settle for a point each.
Portsmouth /Aston Villa draw (3.45 @ pinnacle) 4 points
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Hereford V Millwall
Hereford may be 2 places from bottom but have shown recent signs of improvement and have a great chance to take 3 points against Millwall on Tuesday. They put 5 past 3rd placed Oldham in their last home outing and Oldham are a dam good team. Steve Guinan has nine goals in his last 11 matches and they will look to him to get them out of trouble at the foot of the table. Millwall suffered a 2 – 0 defeat to Hull at the weekend which ended their FA Cup dreams for another year. They are in the playoff spots at the moment but automatic promotion is still very much within their grasp. This is a game that will test their credentials, as a long trip to Hereford on a Tuesday evening is no soft touch. Millwall do their best work at home where they have the second best record in the league and their away form is erratic.
Hereford to follow up on their excellent win against Oldham. Draw no bet in case of a draw
Pick
Hereford draw no bet ( 2.25@ bet365) 5 points
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Barnet V Shrewsbury
My final pick for Tuesdays games. Barnet’s displays have improved with their managerial change at Christmas and they look good to cause a slight shock with a win over Shrewsbury. They have looked a lot more composed at the back recently and are not shipping as many soft goals as they did previously. Despite going down to 10 men in their last two games they have still managed to draw both games and if they can keep 11 players on the field then they have a great chance against a Shrewsbury side that has not won an away game in 5 months! That’s a long time to go without winning and that kind of thing plays on the mind of players, especially the longer it goes on. The goals have dried up for the visitors too and this looks like a sure fire unders game but il stick with the nice odds on the Barnet win, draw no bet for me though as im playing it a bit conservatively!
PICK
Barnet draw no bet (2.3 @ VC) 5 points
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Im back!
After a much needed break im back and feeling good. My internet service was changed in my absense so i had to wait a few days for full service to resume. I missed out on this weekend's betting which didnt bother me too much as i had very little fancies anyway. There plenty of football games to chose from midweek and the Gaa season kicks off next weekend which i always look forward to.
Il try to have a few bits up tomorrow night for Tuesdays games so check back if you wish.
Cheers!
Il try to have a few bits up tomorrow night for Tuesdays games so check back if you wish.
Cheers!
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Some down time
Luckily for me i will be jet setting around the world tomorrow so i probably wont be online all that much in the next 2 weeks or so. Im heading for the Carribean so im not sure what restrictions there are on gambling websites out there. Nevertheless il try to get online if possible if something catches my eye.
Good Luck
Good Luck
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