West Brom V Arsenal
Mowbray the Baggies boss has already admitted that he won’t change the style of play that his side uses and this may be a good thing for this clash.
Arsenal may not have scored in a while but it’s only a matter of time before they start converting some of the many chances that have been falling there way. Van Persie could have had at least 3 against Fulham and at least they are creating chances as opposed to sitting back and waiting for things to happen. Its do or die now for West Brom as they sit bottom of the table 4 points adrift of Stoke and Boro. At this stage they have nothing to lose and they have to attack teams. To be fair to them they have tried to do this and have not sat back and tried to play for draws as some teams have. Some of their games have been riddled with goals and there have been 10 goals in the last 2 games at the Hawthorns.
Verdict
I see a few goals in this. Personally I wouldn’t touch the odds on the Arsenal win but West Brom will give away plenty of chances and Arsenal have to score eventually. Likewise Arsenal gave Fulham plenty of chances at the weekend and West Brom are a team that can punish them on their own turf. Over 2.5 for me.
PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2 @ eurobet) 4 points
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Plymouth V Watford
The championship is a complete betting mine for me this year so only small stake from now on as I don’t really trust anyone. I said at the weekend that If Wolves lose then Brum and Reading usually lose too and so it happened. Unfortunately I was on them to win so that wasn’t much good for me. Tonight I fancy them all to lose but don’t really advise getting too involves on any of them.
Plymouth beat Wolves at Molineux at the weekend but were a little lucky to hold on for the entire game. Wolves created enough but Plymouth who scored after 38 seconds defended their lead very well and took a very valuable 3 points down south. However they are in a poor run of form at the moment and cant seem to keep a clean sheet at home to save themselves. They have lost 3 of the last 4 at home conceding 10 goals in the process scoring just 3.
Watford are playing some great stuff at the moment and have won the last 3 games each by two goals to nil. They have pulled themselves out of the danger zone but still have much work to do before they are safe. Admittedly away from home they have not been as convincing but are in a good position going into this game on the back of 3 game winning streak which has generated confidence amongst the players. Look out for Tamas Priskin, who has bagged five goals in the last six matches and will looking to add to that tally on Saturday.
Verdict
It should be tight but ive been more impressed with the visitors in the last few games. They are playing with confidence and scoring goals. Plymouth have trouble keeping it tight at the back and I can’t see them keeping Watford out. Watford draw no bet for me
PICK
Watford draw no bet (2.10 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
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Bristol Rovers v Brighton
I had already marked this down as a home win before I found out about all the Brighton players missing through injury. At least 11 first team players are reported to be out, “Definitely sidelined after picking up injuries at the weekend are full-back Jim McNulty - who is in hospital after suffering a ruptured kidney - centre-half Tommy Elphick (ankle) and skipper Nicky Forster (calf).
Striker Glenn Murray and defender Kerry Mayo are back in training following hernia operations but will not be ready, and goalkeeper Michel Kuipers is out for a fortnight with a hamstring injury.
Gary Hart is a couple of weeks away with a knee injury and fellow forward Jonny Dixon is still missing with a thigh strain.
Defenders Colin Hawkins (hamstring) and Adam Hinshelwood (calf) complete the roll call, although neither have been ruled out yet.
Adam Virgo is still suspended but David Livermore is back from a ban and loan signings Lloyd Owusu and Matt Heath will be added to the squad.”
Ouch, that means there will be a new look side on view at Bristol.
Rovers are in mid table but cruising along nicely and recorded a decent 1 – 1 draw at Carlisle over the weekend. They are picking up points and heading in the right direction and are generally a decent outfit at home with a good record against the bottom half of the table.
Verdict
Its late, im tired and I won’t go into too much detail but I already had Bristol Rovers down as a home win before reading about Brightons problems. Brighton were shocking at the weekend losing 4 – 0 at home to lowly Crewe and surely Rovers will have far too much for them tonight.
Can’t see the odds lasting too long either, they have already dropped to a low of 1.57 at bet365 but can still be got at 1.75 @ betsense
PICKS
Bristol Rovers (1.75 @ betsense) 5 points
Without sounding greedy it may also be worth a pinch on the correct scorelines
3 - 0 (15 @ skybet) 1 point
4 - 0 (40 @ expekt) 1 point
5 - 0 (81 @ boylesports) 1 point
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Crewe V Carlisle
Crewe are on a decent run of results at the moment and are 4 wins out of the last 4. They have also won the last 4 at home and that run of form has seen them pull out of the relegation zone. Another win will pull them level on points with tonight’s visitor’s Carlisle. Carlisle are slipping a little and 1 point from the last possible 9 has left them living dangerously. Now is not the time of the year to be letting points slip as teams such as Crewe are picking up points and teams may find themselves in deep trouble before they realise it.
Carlisle have a good few injury worries with top-scorer Danny Graham, who limped out of the 1-1 draw with Bristol Rovers at the weekend rated very doubtful. Added to that, defender Danny Livesey as well midfielders Jeff Smith and Marc Bridge-Wilkinson will miss out and Evan Horwood is also sidelined with a knee problem.
Verdict
Crewe are on a good run and have won the last two games by four and two goals to nil. Given the confidence that they will have from that and the injury worries that Carlisle have. Il go for the home win and give the ¼ ball away.
PICK
Crewe –0.25 (1.9 @10bet) 4 points
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Southend V Millwall
Im a little surprised at the odds here because it’s the hosts that are in the better form and picking up the better results at the moment. They won 2 – 1 at Peterborough at the weekend, a fantastic result considering that only two teams have gone to Peterborough and won this season. With the bottom of the table being fairly congested its important that Southend keep picking up the points and they could almost be considered safe at this stage.
Nonetheless expect nothing less than a committed performance as they will look to keep another clean sheets having collected 3 in the last 4 at home. They have won the last 3 on the trot and are in that winning mood at the moment.
Millwall are very erratic and hard to gauge. They probably will be glad to get away from the Den as they have lost a few there lately and are under pressure to get a few results under their belt. That playoff spot is starting to look a little shaky now and they will look to improve on recent away form where they have picked up a few wins and seem to find it easier to score.
PICK
Millwall have been better on their travels recently but you can’t ignore the confidence and good run of results that Southend have had. I have a slight feeling for the draw here but may just go with Southend draw no bet as I see them sneaking it.
PICK
Southend draw no bet (1.82 @ pinnacle) 4 points
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
Oldham V Leeds
Oldham V Leeds
This should be a decent game with both sides looking for 3 points to further their chances of consolidating that playoff spot.
Both are coming off decent wins at the weekend though arguably it was Oldham who were a bit more impressive. They surrendered a 2 – 0 lead to Millwall and were 2 – 2 heading into the late stages of the game before a late Taylor strike earned them valuable 3 points.
Oldham are pretty strong at home where they have only been beaten twice this season. After a 2 – 0 defeat to Bristol Rovers last time out they will be keen to get back to winning ways at Boundary Park.. Interestingly they have a good record against the top sides and are undefeated to any of the top 6 this season.
Leeds were also 3 – 2 winners and like Oldham they had a 2 –0 lead before letting Scunthorpe back into the game. Luckily for them Jermaine Beckford is fit at the moment and he is vital to their cause. He chipped in with 2 on Saturday and if they hope to have any luck tonight then he is the man to do the damage. Leeds have taken zero points from the last 3 away games and more alarmingly have failed to score in those 3 games. Their away form is very unpredictable and they need to start picking up a few more points away from Elland Road if they want to get a top 6 finish.
Verdict
This one is tricky to call, Leeds need a win just as much as Oldham and it will be an interesting test for Oldham’s boss John Sheridan who spent many years at Leeds and is still a fans favourite. You get the feeling that maybe both would settle for a draw if they were offered it right now. Losing would be a real kick in the teeth for either side and if the game is level entering the 60th to 70th minute then I don’t expect either team to risk everything going forward, and settle for a point apiece. For the stats lovers out there, Leeds are now 11 games without a draw so they are due one!
PICK
Draw (3.4 @ coral) 3 points
This should be a decent game with both sides looking for 3 points to further their chances of consolidating that playoff spot.
Both are coming off decent wins at the weekend though arguably it was Oldham who were a bit more impressive. They surrendered a 2 – 0 lead to Millwall and were 2 – 2 heading into the late stages of the game before a late Taylor strike earned them valuable 3 points.
Oldham are pretty strong at home where they have only been beaten twice this season. After a 2 – 0 defeat to Bristol Rovers last time out they will be keen to get back to winning ways at Boundary Park.. Interestingly they have a good record against the top sides and are undefeated to any of the top 6 this season.
Leeds were also 3 – 2 winners and like Oldham they had a 2 –0 lead before letting Scunthorpe back into the game. Luckily for them Jermaine Beckford is fit at the moment and he is vital to their cause. He chipped in with 2 on Saturday and if they hope to have any luck tonight then he is the man to do the damage. Leeds have taken zero points from the last 3 away games and more alarmingly have failed to score in those 3 games. Their away form is very unpredictable and they need to start picking up a few more points away from Elland Road if they want to get a top 6 finish.
Verdict
This one is tricky to call, Leeds need a win just as much as Oldham and it will be an interesting test for Oldham’s boss John Sheridan who spent many years at Leeds and is still a fans favourite. You get the feeling that maybe both would settle for a draw if they were offered it right now. Losing would be a real kick in the teeth for either side and if the game is level entering the 60th to 70th minute then I don’t expect either team to risk everything going forward, and settle for a point apiece. For the stats lovers out there, Leeds are now 11 games without a draw so they are due one!
PICK
Draw (3.4 @ coral) 3 points
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Premiership on Saturday
Chelsea V Wigan
Looking at the premiership coupon its hard to see any real value. Arsenal are too short and theres not too many other angles on that game so il go with Chelsea. Again, the price is very short but Chelsea do look like home bankers. They have struggled a bit recently but new gaffer Hiddink has got two massive wins since he came and maybe things are on the way up again for them. The real problem has been scoring goals. Their defence has been mean enough but goals are the Achilles heal. Drogba is a shadow of the player he was and Anelka is now the main man and the top scorer. Since Liverpool beat their unbeaten record a few months back, Chelsea look like their confidence has been rattles. Luckily for them, a new manager, some good results and the season may yet get back on track.
Wigan have been struggling lately in the Premier League but considering the amount of players that have left the club its hardly surprising. They still have a good ranking in the table and are most definitely safe but where do they go from here? They wont get into Europe and wont go down so from now on I guess its all about securing that mid table position and giving the fans something to cheer about. Wigan drew their last four games, while the last three were goalless draws. Bruce realises that they are not the best going forward but is playing to his strengths and they are a tough side to break down. Mido and Valencia are doubtful but otherwise Bruce has a full squad to chose from.
Verdict
Wigan will come to defend, Chelsea really need the win and need to keep the pressure on Liverpool for that second place. They have the players and just need to get it right. One of the days they will click and destroy a team 4 or 5 nil. It wont happen today but thy should still be good enough to win this 1 or 2 - 0
PICK
Chelsea to win to nil (1.83 @ skybet) 4 points
Anelka 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ VC) 1 point
Looking at the premiership coupon its hard to see any real value. Arsenal are too short and theres not too many other angles on that game so il go with Chelsea. Again, the price is very short but Chelsea do look like home bankers. They have struggled a bit recently but new gaffer Hiddink has got two massive wins since he came and maybe things are on the way up again for them. The real problem has been scoring goals. Their defence has been mean enough but goals are the Achilles heal. Drogba is a shadow of the player he was and Anelka is now the main man and the top scorer. Since Liverpool beat their unbeaten record a few months back, Chelsea look like their confidence has been rattles. Luckily for them, a new manager, some good results and the season may yet get back on track.
Wigan have been struggling lately in the Premier League but considering the amount of players that have left the club its hardly surprising. They still have a good ranking in the table and are most definitely safe but where do they go from here? They wont get into Europe and wont go down so from now on I guess its all about securing that mid table position and giving the fans something to cheer about. Wigan drew their last four games, while the last three were goalless draws. Bruce realises that they are not the best going forward but is playing to his strengths and they are a tough side to break down. Mido and Valencia are doubtful but otherwise Bruce has a full squad to chose from.
Verdict
Wigan will come to defend, Chelsea really need the win and need to keep the pressure on Liverpool for that second place. They have the players and just need to get it right. One of the days they will click and destroy a team 4 or 5 nil. It wont happen today but thy should still be good enough to win this 1 or 2 - 0
PICK
Chelsea to win to nil (1.83 @ skybet) 4 points
Anelka 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ VC) 1 point
Championship on Saturday
Wolves V Plymouth
It seems that Wolves are doing their very best to throw it all away. A poor run of form has seen them lose any points advantage they had but they are lucky as Reading and Birmingham are also failing to capitalise. It seems that if one of these win, then they all win and if one loses that they all seem to drop points. Wolves are still a decent outfit and not turned over to easy at Molineaux. Luckily for them Plymouth are heading southwards themselves and 3 defeats in the last 4 and a pretty poor away record is hurting them.
Wolves are on a bad run themselves but importantly are scoring goals, its just defending where the problem lies. Plymouth though are not free scoring enough to cause problems to the Wolves defence
Verdict
Wolves finally have to get back on track and should have too much firepower for a goal shy Plymouth today. The odds are nothing to shout about but a worthwhile addition to any acca
PICK
Wolves win (1.53 @ paddy power) 6 points
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Reading V Nottingham forest
Reading like Wolves are in a bit of a rut at the moment but it can only be a matter of time before they start to play like they are capable of. Their bad run has coincided with a bad patch from Kevin Doyle and he will be fairly eager to get back on the scoresheet and get the team going again. Despite struggling for goals, Steve Coppell’s men are managing to pick up points due to a tough defence that kept three consecutive clean sheets prior to the game against Bristol City. As with Wolves, Reading have a great chance to get 3 points today and mainly because of their opposition. Forest are sliding at the moment and are five league matches without victory. Last weeks 3 – 1 defeat to Derby will have knocked the stuffing out of them and their defence has opened up lately having conceded 12 goals in six matches.
Verdict
Reading are the closest to a premiership side in the championship and are due a bit of good fortune in front of the posts. Forest have conceded a few too many lately to suggest they can make it difficult for Coppells men. Reading to win 2 – 0
PICK
Reading (1.62 @ ladbrokes) 6 points
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Swansea V Charlton
Swansea may have been knocked out of the FA cup midweek but gained a lot of admirers for the way they played against their Premiership opponents. Now that the dream is over they will have got a taste for the lime light and will be keen to push on and secure a play off spot. They attack quite well, score plenty of goals and have a strong home record. Jason Scotland is having a fine season and has 14 goals in his last 15 appearances. If they don’t make it to the premiership this year, he probably will. They are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment winning the last 4 at home scoring 12 goals in the process.
Charlton have fallen a long way from the heights of the premiership a few short seasons ago and at this stage seem resigned to a place in league 1 next season. They have been scoring goals but the main problem has been in defence where they have conceded more goals than anyone else this season. 55 goals left in, that’s 1 to 2 a game. The 0 – 0 draw last time out was their first clean sheet in 12 games and it’s hard to see them keeping a rampant Swansea at bay for 90 minutes.
Verdict
Swansea are just getting too many goals at the moment. Although defeated during the week, their confidence is sky high and at home they are a match for any team. They have beaten the best in the league at home and should take another 3 points here in their bid for the premiership.
PICK
Swansea (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points
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Bristol City V Blackpool
Bristol have made some major progress at the club since Christmas rising from 18th to fifth in the Championship table. Last weeks 2 – 0 win at Reading further underlined their confidence and they have now won 8 of the last 10.
At home recently they are just as strong and have found their scoring boots scoring 2 a game in the last 4. When you get into the habit of winning games, confidence rises, players feel comfortable within themselves and good results follow. That’s whats happening at Bristol City and though many tipped them to go down this year it looks now like they are well in with a shout to make the playoffs and give Lordburt a day out.
Blackpool are struggling for points and having to scrap for everything they can. They are unpredictable to say the least and an example of this was beating Brum a few weeks back 2 – 0 only to be hammered 3 – 0 by QPR shortly afterwards. On the road they are just as erratic and every now and then spring a good result which is just enough to keep their head above water. They have a few injuries and suspension problems today so are weakened in one or two areas.
Verdict
Bristol City have the players to win this game comfortably. If the “good” Blackpool turn up on the day then they might have trouble with them but if they are serious about a top 6 finish then these are the kind of games they should be winning, especially at home.
PICK
Bristol City (1.77 @ pinnacle) 5 points
It seems that Wolves are doing their very best to throw it all away. A poor run of form has seen them lose any points advantage they had but they are lucky as Reading and Birmingham are also failing to capitalise. It seems that if one of these win, then they all win and if one loses that they all seem to drop points. Wolves are still a decent outfit and not turned over to easy at Molineaux. Luckily for them Plymouth are heading southwards themselves and 3 defeats in the last 4 and a pretty poor away record is hurting them.
Wolves are on a bad run themselves but importantly are scoring goals, its just defending where the problem lies. Plymouth though are not free scoring enough to cause problems to the Wolves defence
Verdict
Wolves finally have to get back on track and should have too much firepower for a goal shy Plymouth today. The odds are nothing to shout about but a worthwhile addition to any acca
PICK
Wolves win (1.53 @ paddy power) 6 points
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Reading V Nottingham forest
Reading like Wolves are in a bit of a rut at the moment but it can only be a matter of time before they start to play like they are capable of. Their bad run has coincided with a bad patch from Kevin Doyle and he will be fairly eager to get back on the scoresheet and get the team going again. Despite struggling for goals, Steve Coppell’s men are managing to pick up points due to a tough defence that kept three consecutive clean sheets prior to the game against Bristol City. As with Wolves, Reading have a great chance to get 3 points today and mainly because of their opposition. Forest are sliding at the moment and are five league matches without victory. Last weeks 3 – 1 defeat to Derby will have knocked the stuffing out of them and their defence has opened up lately having conceded 12 goals in six matches.
Verdict
Reading are the closest to a premiership side in the championship and are due a bit of good fortune in front of the posts. Forest have conceded a few too many lately to suggest they can make it difficult for Coppells men. Reading to win 2 – 0
PICK
Reading (1.62 @ ladbrokes) 6 points
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Swansea V Charlton
Swansea may have been knocked out of the FA cup midweek but gained a lot of admirers for the way they played against their Premiership opponents. Now that the dream is over they will have got a taste for the lime light and will be keen to push on and secure a play off spot. They attack quite well, score plenty of goals and have a strong home record. Jason Scotland is having a fine season and has 14 goals in his last 15 appearances. If they don’t make it to the premiership this year, he probably will. They are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment winning the last 4 at home scoring 12 goals in the process.
Charlton have fallen a long way from the heights of the premiership a few short seasons ago and at this stage seem resigned to a place in league 1 next season. They have been scoring goals but the main problem has been in defence where they have conceded more goals than anyone else this season. 55 goals left in, that’s 1 to 2 a game. The 0 – 0 draw last time out was their first clean sheet in 12 games and it’s hard to see them keeping a rampant Swansea at bay for 90 minutes.
Verdict
Swansea are just getting too many goals at the moment. Although defeated during the week, their confidence is sky high and at home they are a match for any team. They have beaten the best in the league at home and should take another 3 points here in their bid for the premiership.
PICK
Swansea (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points
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Bristol City V Blackpool
Bristol have made some major progress at the club since Christmas rising from 18th to fifth in the Championship table. Last weeks 2 – 0 win at Reading further underlined their confidence and they have now won 8 of the last 10.
At home recently they are just as strong and have found their scoring boots scoring 2 a game in the last 4. When you get into the habit of winning games, confidence rises, players feel comfortable within themselves and good results follow. That’s whats happening at Bristol City and though many tipped them to go down this year it looks now like they are well in with a shout to make the playoffs and give Lordburt a day out.
Blackpool are struggling for points and having to scrap for everything they can. They are unpredictable to say the least and an example of this was beating Brum a few weeks back 2 – 0 only to be hammered 3 – 0 by QPR shortly afterwards. On the road they are just as erratic and every now and then spring a good result which is just enough to keep their head above water. They have a few injuries and suspension problems today so are weakened in one or two areas.
Verdict
Bristol City have the players to win this game comfortably. If the “good” Blackpool turn up on the day then they might have trouble with them but if they are serious about a top 6 finish then these are the kind of games they should be winning, especially at home.
PICK
Bristol City (1.77 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Six Nations on Saturday
Ireland V England
Ireland may never have a better chance to win the six nations than they do right now. Wales losing in Paris last night was a huge bonus to Ireland and it will be interesting to see how they will react as its now theirs to lose. As I see it, this could yet come down to points if Ireland lose to Wales in Cardiff on the last day. First though we have to beat England and as always this Ireland/England clash should be good. Ireland definitely hold the upper hand in the recent clashes and England will be eager to avenge to 30-point defeat here in 2007. Ireland were impressive in their first outing against France, to be fair they struggled against Italy and the scoreline probably didn’t reflect the game as Ireland scored late tries to flatter themselves. Still it was the kind of poor performance that woke them up and they will need to be wide-awake today and not make any errors as England will pounce. As usual O Gara will have a massive influence on the game. He has got a lot of bad press in the English media down through the years and seems to save his best for these kind of games.
England really did well against Wales. Sure they lost but restored a bit of pride as they were never expected to win in Cardiff in the first place. They have showed signs of improvement but the team is changed once again disrupting things and making it harder to predict. Toby Flood comes in for Andy Goode and this means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times and used five different players in 10 Test matches. That kind of chopping and changing is not good for anyone but I do think Flood is the best man at the moment. Im not sure where Cipriani has disappeared to? Flood is the only significant change for this game. One thing England need to clean up on is their discipline, 8 yellow card in the last 3 matches and they gave away needless penalties against Wales. This kind of indiscipline will hurt them, especially if O Gara is in the mood.
Verdict
Ireland should win this but it’s hard to gauge by how much. The handicap line has moved to 8 and 9 in places and this looks about right. As I said, much will depend on O Gara, he chipped in with 15 points against France, 11 against Italy and England did give away an awful amount of scoreable penalties against Wales. Therefore il go with O Gara to score more than 12 points or more. He beat it in the first game, would have beaten it in the second game only for a silly sin bin. If he has a good day then he’s obviously strong candidate for motm too. John Hayes is making a record number of appearances today for Ireland also and if he has a half decent game could be in the running for man of the match also to mark the occasion
PICK
Ronan O Gara 12 points or more (1.8 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Ronan O Gara man of the match (9 @ Paddy power) 1 point
John Hayes man of the match (67 @ Paddy power) 1 point
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Scotland V Italy
Surely this will be the battle to avoid the wooden spoon as neither look like picking up points in the remaining games. Scotland played above themselves in France but I still keep thinking of that terrible performance in Murrayfield against Wales on day one. No heart and no bottle that day but surely they can’t be as poor at home again? Max and Thom Evans will be very important today as they have the pace and invention to hurt Italy. Scoring tries and showing a bit of creativity has been the Scots biggest problem so far and it will be tough against a hard Italian pack today. Scotland need no reminding about the threats Italy pose as they have lost the last 2 to them.
Italy played quite well against Ireland but never really looked like they believed that they could win it. They hit hard and not always fairly but should have kept the scoreline much closer than they did. Eventually they tired and it was visible in the last 10 that they were on their last legs. It was in this time that Ireland pulled away as the Italians made poor handling errors and lost concentration. Having won in Edinburgh two years ago and with a win in Rome last season, Italy might have the belief that they don’t have against the bigger nations and they have made a few changes for the game. Marcato replaces the suspended full-back Masi while Bortolami comes in for the dropped Reato. Hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini returns from injury and should play
Verdict
If Scotland play t their potential then they could win this at a canter. Italy are not fit enough and look kind of clueless outside the scrum. The scots are not renowned as a free scoring side but its time to restore a bit of pride in the jersey.
PICK
Scotland – 8 points (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points
Ireland may never have a better chance to win the six nations than they do right now. Wales losing in Paris last night was a huge bonus to Ireland and it will be interesting to see how they will react as its now theirs to lose. As I see it, this could yet come down to points if Ireland lose to Wales in Cardiff on the last day. First though we have to beat England and as always this Ireland/England clash should be good. Ireland definitely hold the upper hand in the recent clashes and England will be eager to avenge to 30-point defeat here in 2007. Ireland were impressive in their first outing against France, to be fair they struggled against Italy and the scoreline probably didn’t reflect the game as Ireland scored late tries to flatter themselves. Still it was the kind of poor performance that woke them up and they will need to be wide-awake today and not make any errors as England will pounce. As usual O Gara will have a massive influence on the game. He has got a lot of bad press in the English media down through the years and seems to save his best for these kind of games.
England really did well against Wales. Sure they lost but restored a bit of pride as they were never expected to win in Cardiff in the first place. They have showed signs of improvement but the team is changed once again disrupting things and making it harder to predict. Toby Flood comes in for Andy Goode and this means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times and used five different players in 10 Test matches. That kind of chopping and changing is not good for anyone but I do think Flood is the best man at the moment. Im not sure where Cipriani has disappeared to? Flood is the only significant change for this game. One thing England need to clean up on is their discipline, 8 yellow card in the last 3 matches and they gave away needless penalties against Wales. This kind of indiscipline will hurt them, especially if O Gara is in the mood.
Verdict
Ireland should win this but it’s hard to gauge by how much. The handicap line has moved to 8 and 9 in places and this looks about right. As I said, much will depend on O Gara, he chipped in with 15 points against France, 11 against Italy and England did give away an awful amount of scoreable penalties against Wales. Therefore il go with O Gara to score more than 12 points or more. He beat it in the first game, would have beaten it in the second game only for a silly sin bin. If he has a good day then he’s obviously strong candidate for motm too. John Hayes is making a record number of appearances today for Ireland also and if he has a half decent game could be in the running for man of the match also to mark the occasion
PICK
Ronan O Gara 12 points or more (1.8 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Ronan O Gara man of the match (9 @ Paddy power) 1 point
John Hayes man of the match (67 @ Paddy power) 1 point
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Scotland V Italy
Surely this will be the battle to avoid the wooden spoon as neither look like picking up points in the remaining games. Scotland played above themselves in France but I still keep thinking of that terrible performance in Murrayfield against Wales on day one. No heart and no bottle that day but surely they can’t be as poor at home again? Max and Thom Evans will be very important today as they have the pace and invention to hurt Italy. Scoring tries and showing a bit of creativity has been the Scots biggest problem so far and it will be tough against a hard Italian pack today. Scotland need no reminding about the threats Italy pose as they have lost the last 2 to them.
Italy played quite well against Ireland but never really looked like they believed that they could win it. They hit hard and not always fairly but should have kept the scoreline much closer than they did. Eventually they tired and it was visible in the last 10 that they were on their last legs. It was in this time that Ireland pulled away as the Italians made poor handling errors and lost concentration. Having won in Edinburgh two years ago and with a win in Rome last season, Italy might have the belief that they don’t have against the bigger nations and they have made a few changes for the game. Marcato replaces the suspended full-back Masi while Bortolami comes in for the dropped Reato. Hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini returns from injury and should play
Verdict
If Scotland play t their potential then they could win this at a canter. Italy are not fit enough and look kind of clueless outside the scrum. The scots are not renowned as a free scoring side but its time to restore a bit of pride in the jersey.
PICK
Scotland – 8 points (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Six Nations on Friday
France V Wales
I nearly missed this one as it is quite unusual to see games fixed for Friday night.
France kicked off the campaign with defeat in Dublin but were widely and rightly given praise after the display in which they were very unlucky to lose. That proved to be a bit of a false dawn though with an error strewn lack lustre performance against Scotland in Paris 2 weeks ago. They never really had any control in that game and were lucky to get over a fairly average Scottish side. The big news is that fly half Lionel Beauxis is out so Lievremont has to gamble a little and play the inexperienced Benoit Baby. Coming in at scrum half is Morgan Parra who is picked ahead of Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Its doubtful that France will be as poor again and lets remember they were well beaten in Cardiff last year so theres a score to settle.
Wales will be looking to equal the record of both England and France in going nine Six Nations Championship matches without defeat. Two wins from two over Scotland and England leave them in a good position to reclaim the six nations but there were a few doubts over their performance against England. Its hard to say if Wales were bad on the day or did England just play well but there were definitely a few areas exposed by England and the French will look to capitalise on these. Shane Williams is back though and he will be a huge help. He will fit back into the starting 15 and that’s likely to be the only change. Pretty boy Henson is back on the bench too.
Verdict
These are two of the best attacking sides to watch and this should be a great clash. If the real France turn up then the price on them will look huge come tomorrow night. They were poor against Scotland but this is a big game and they should be well up for it. As I see it this is very evenly balanced and I can’t ignore the odds on the home win. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but home venue and a hint of revenge could be the deciding factor in this. England proved that Wales can be got at and the French, if they chose to run the ball, are one of the fastest teams around Il take France to win in what should be a cracker.
PICK
France (2.4 @ sporting bet) 4 points
I nearly missed this one as it is quite unusual to see games fixed for Friday night.
France kicked off the campaign with defeat in Dublin but were widely and rightly given praise after the display in which they were very unlucky to lose. That proved to be a bit of a false dawn though with an error strewn lack lustre performance against Scotland in Paris 2 weeks ago. They never really had any control in that game and were lucky to get over a fairly average Scottish side. The big news is that fly half Lionel Beauxis is out so Lievremont has to gamble a little and play the inexperienced Benoit Baby. Coming in at scrum half is Morgan Parra who is picked ahead of Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Its doubtful that France will be as poor again and lets remember they were well beaten in Cardiff last year so theres a score to settle.
Wales will be looking to equal the record of both England and France in going nine Six Nations Championship matches without defeat. Two wins from two over Scotland and England leave them in a good position to reclaim the six nations but there were a few doubts over their performance against England. Its hard to say if Wales were bad on the day or did England just play well but there were definitely a few areas exposed by England and the French will look to capitalise on these. Shane Williams is back though and he will be a huge help. He will fit back into the starting 15 and that’s likely to be the only change. Pretty boy Henson is back on the bench too.
Verdict
These are two of the best attacking sides to watch and this should be a great clash. If the real France turn up then the price on them will look huge come tomorrow night. They were poor against Scotland but this is a big game and they should be well up for it. As I see it this is very evenly balanced and I can’t ignore the odds on the home win. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but home venue and a hint of revenge could be the deciding factor in this. England proved that Wales can be got at and the French, if they chose to run the ball, are one of the fastest teams around Il take France to win in what should be a cracker.
PICK
France (2.4 @ sporting bet) 4 points
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Uefa cup Thursday
CSKA Moscow v Aston Villa
The odds have dropped dramatically since news emerged of the squad that Martin O Neill is taking to Moscow. Early prices of 2.10 have been smashed down to circa 1.6 and it’s hard to argue with that when you analyse the game.
CSKA
The Russian side may be on their winter break but showed no signs of rustiness on their visit to Villa Park in a 1 – 1 draw last week.
Many, including this writer thought that the winter break in which they had not played since early December would damage their chances. They deservedly took the leak through Vagnor Love and could have scored more if they had their shooting boots on. New coach Zico has instilled a sense of confidence in them and has changed their tactics from 3-5-2 to 4-4-2 but they have adapted without hassle. He has spoken of his delight at the attitude and performance of some of his players, in particular the younger generation.
In general there is a good vibe coming from the camp and they can draw confidence from the first leg performance and in particular their midfield which didn’t let Villa create many clear cut chances.
Aston Villa
As mentioned above Martin O Neill appears to have conceded the UEFA cup for this year to concentrate on a bigger prize, a top 4 standing in the league and a champion’s league spot next year. Gareth Barry, Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Carlos Cuellar and Stiliyan Petrov are all excluded from the travelling squad to Russia, all key players.
He said: "We have a couple of players who are carrying injuries and a couple of others who I believe need resting for the important final third of the season." This leaves O Neill with a largely inexperienced squad with the only regulars being Luke Young, Curtis Davies, Zat Knight and John Carew.
Obviously having conceded an away goal Villa will have to attack to get something from the tie. Its hard to see where the goals will come from though seeing as they are largely dependant on Barry, Milner and Young in the middle and Agbonlahor for scoring. In fact their best player in the first leg was Petrov and he’s also missing.
Verdict
Although the price has dropped it’s hard to argue with CSKA wining this one. A scoreless draw will see them through but they won’t play the game like this. Defending a 0 – 0 lead is too risky and they showed enough quality in the first leg to say that they can attack and score. Going to a cold plastic pitch in Russia would be tough for Villa’s full team and with this bunch of inexperienced players it going to be even harder.
CSKA to win 2 or 3 – 0
PICK
CSKA –1 ( 2.09 @ canbet) 6 points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard V Braga
( In progress)
The odds have dropped dramatically since news emerged of the squad that Martin O Neill is taking to Moscow. Early prices of 2.10 have been smashed down to circa 1.6 and it’s hard to argue with that when you analyse the game.
CSKA
The Russian side may be on their winter break but showed no signs of rustiness on their visit to Villa Park in a 1 – 1 draw last week.
Many, including this writer thought that the winter break in which they had not played since early December would damage their chances. They deservedly took the leak through Vagnor Love and could have scored more if they had their shooting boots on. New coach Zico has instilled a sense of confidence in them and has changed their tactics from 3-5-2 to 4-4-2 but they have adapted without hassle. He has spoken of his delight at the attitude and performance of some of his players, in particular the younger generation.
In general there is a good vibe coming from the camp and they can draw confidence from the first leg performance and in particular their midfield which didn’t let Villa create many clear cut chances.
Aston Villa
As mentioned above Martin O Neill appears to have conceded the UEFA cup for this year to concentrate on a bigger prize, a top 4 standing in the league and a champion’s league spot next year. Gareth Barry, Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Carlos Cuellar and Stiliyan Petrov are all excluded from the travelling squad to Russia, all key players.
He said: "We have a couple of players who are carrying injuries and a couple of others who I believe need resting for the important final third of the season." This leaves O Neill with a largely inexperienced squad with the only regulars being Luke Young, Curtis Davies, Zat Knight and John Carew.
Obviously having conceded an away goal Villa will have to attack to get something from the tie. Its hard to see where the goals will come from though seeing as they are largely dependant on Barry, Milner and Young in the middle and Agbonlahor for scoring. In fact their best player in the first leg was Petrov and he’s also missing.
Verdict
Although the price has dropped it’s hard to argue with CSKA wining this one. A scoreless draw will see them through but they won’t play the game like this. Defending a 0 – 0 lead is too risky and they showed enough quality in the first leg to say that they can attack and score. Going to a cold plastic pitch in Russia would be tough for Villa’s full team and with this bunch of inexperienced players it going to be even harder.
CSKA to win 2 or 3 – 0
PICK
CSKA –1 ( 2.09 @ canbet) 6 points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard V Braga
( In progress)
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