The 125th anniversary of the GAA is being celebrated tonight with a fireworks display reportedly in the €500,000 mark. This will kick off the action before Dublin and Tyrone at a sold out Croke Park. As its the first round il be leaving it go from a betting perspective as i may do tomorrow also. Players are just back from a long break, some have had club action to keep them ticking over and some have not so its hard to know just yet where some players are at fitness wise. It can take a round or two to focus some teams so for me tonight no bet.
On saying that, i wouldnt put anyone off backing Tyrone, Dublin are experimenting with a new look full back line which could very easily backfire on them. Should be a good open game and im looking forward to it.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Saturday's bets
Football first but il be back with a look at the GAA action on offer tonight
Aston Villa V Wigan
Emile Heskey didn’t have to wait too long before having to face his old employers and teammates at Wigan. Heskey made an immediate impact scoring on his debut and his strength and ability may be just what Villa need to stay in the top 4. I like the look of the odds on him to score at anytime today. He’s upfront with Agbonlahor and there are bound to be plenty of chances for him. Agbonlahor has a very good strike rate against the Latics having scored 3 times in the last 4 games against them which throws me off taking Heskey to score first. It’s hard to predict the games itself as Villa could be accused of having a lot of luck in their recent good run. They were lucky to hold on to the 3 points against Pompey midweek and haven’t really given a complete performance yet.
Wigan could also have snatched 3 points from Liverpool midweek but in my mind this was down to the negative approach from Rafa Benitez. Trying to hold onto a 1 - 0 lead is risky business and Wigan fully deserved their point.
Verdict
This should be a decent games with plenty of chances and who knows better the strengths and weaknesses of the Wigan defence than Heskey. There is always an air of inevitability about a player scoring against his former club and as Bellamy proved against Newcastle on Wednesday it happens quite a lot.
PICK
Heskey anytime scorer ( 3 @ skybet) 4 points
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Manchester United V Everton
I have two picks for this game at long odds that I have thought to be “value” and worth a shot.
First of all, Man Utd have not conceded in 1,032 minutes in the premiership, which is a remarkable achievement. United tend to outplay their opposition from time to time and it there are times when Van Der Sar does not have to do much for large periods of the game. Keeping your concentration is a hard thing to do in games like this and this makes the record all the more amazing. United have looked like regaining the premiership for a long time now and it will take a special effort from the Toffees if they are to pull something from this game. However they are in good form themselves and outplayed Arsenal for long periods of the game on Wednesday night before a late goal from Van Persie shared the points. Two consecutive draws with Liverpool preceded the Arsenal game in which they also played ok.
Manchester have not looked like dropping points in a while but could find it tough today provided that Everton are up for the challenge. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to See Uniteds clean sheet record beaten today and im hoping that Everton can score first and make a game of it as Spurs did last week in the FA cup.
Verdict
As I said I think Everton can be stiff opposition and can make it tough for United. Two picks I see in with a great shout are United to come from behind to win the game, as they did last week. The other is for it to be a draw at HT and United to win at FT which is also a huge possibility if Everton come to Old Trafford to defend as teams often do.
Big odds, small stakes
PICK
Man Utd to come from behind and win (11 @ paddy power) 1 point
Draw HT – Man Utd FT (4.5 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Aston Villa V Wigan
Emile Heskey didn’t have to wait too long before having to face his old employers and teammates at Wigan. Heskey made an immediate impact scoring on his debut and his strength and ability may be just what Villa need to stay in the top 4. I like the look of the odds on him to score at anytime today. He’s upfront with Agbonlahor and there are bound to be plenty of chances for him. Agbonlahor has a very good strike rate against the Latics having scored 3 times in the last 4 games against them which throws me off taking Heskey to score first. It’s hard to predict the games itself as Villa could be accused of having a lot of luck in their recent good run. They were lucky to hold on to the 3 points against Pompey midweek and haven’t really given a complete performance yet.
Wigan could also have snatched 3 points from Liverpool midweek but in my mind this was down to the negative approach from Rafa Benitez. Trying to hold onto a 1 - 0 lead is risky business and Wigan fully deserved their point.
Verdict
This should be a decent games with plenty of chances and who knows better the strengths and weaknesses of the Wigan defence than Heskey. There is always an air of inevitability about a player scoring against his former club and as Bellamy proved against Newcastle on Wednesday it happens quite a lot.
PICK
Heskey anytime scorer ( 3 @ skybet) 4 points
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Manchester United V Everton
I have two picks for this game at long odds that I have thought to be “value” and worth a shot.
First of all, Man Utd have not conceded in 1,032 minutes in the premiership, which is a remarkable achievement. United tend to outplay their opposition from time to time and it there are times when Van Der Sar does not have to do much for large periods of the game. Keeping your concentration is a hard thing to do in games like this and this makes the record all the more amazing. United have looked like regaining the premiership for a long time now and it will take a special effort from the Toffees if they are to pull something from this game. However they are in good form themselves and outplayed Arsenal for long periods of the game on Wednesday night before a late goal from Van Persie shared the points. Two consecutive draws with Liverpool preceded the Arsenal game in which they also played ok.
Manchester have not looked like dropping points in a while but could find it tough today provided that Everton are up for the challenge. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to See Uniteds clean sheet record beaten today and im hoping that Everton can score first and make a game of it as Spurs did last week in the FA cup.
Verdict
As I said I think Everton can be stiff opposition and can make it tough for United. Two picks I see in with a great shout are United to come from behind to win the game, as they did last week. The other is for it to be a draw at HT and United to win at FT which is also a huge possibility if Everton come to Old Trafford to defend as teams often do.
Big odds, small stakes
PICK
Man Utd to come from behind and win (11 @ paddy power) 1 point
Draw HT – Man Utd FT (4.5 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Wednesday night
Ouch, tough night with just the one winner. Pompey kicked away enough chances to win the game never mind draw and Spurs finally clicked, for 45 mins at least.
Manchester City V Newcastle United
You do get the feeling that Man City are due a change in fortune at some stage and it could finally come against a poor travelling Newcastle side on Wednesday. They have been fairly erratic but are capable of decent performances especially at Eastlands where they seem a little more comfortable. The recent signing of Craig Bellamy and Nigel De Jong are big addition’s to the squad and should stabilize things a bit. With all their money there has been plenty of action in the transfer market with a ridiculous amount reportedly offered to Kaka which he refused. Also to add a little spice to this encounter they are supposedly very close to getting the signature of Shay Given. Robinho also has a big point to prove to the fans after going AWOL in Tenerife.
Newcastle are struggling and Kinnear’s honeymoon period is long over. They have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 games and were humiliated 3 – 0 at Blackburn on their last away trip. Apart from Joey Barton and Jose Enrique’s on field argument during the Blackburn match, it is reported that there have been some training ground incidents also which has done little for morale. Sitting 2 points above relegation is a dodgy spot to be and there is pressure on players and staff to start collecting some points.
Verdict
It’s only a matter of time before Man City click and their two new signings could prove to be the inspiration behind a win. Newcastle are unpredictable but I don’t see them causing an upset here.
Pick
Man City – 1 (2.31 @ bet365) 5 points
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Chelsea V Middlesborough
My first thoughts were Chelsea to win this very easy but on reflection im not so sure. Chelsea’s home form has not been so hot and their confidence looks shot since Liverpool broke their unbeaten record. They were very close to being humiliated by lowly Stoke last time out before two very late Lampard goals stole the points for them. 3 points are critical after Man Utd's show at West Brom and Chelsea need to keep up the pace.
It seems like forever since Middlesborough won a game (fa cup aside) and they have now lost 4 on the trot away from home. However, they are a notoriously tricky team to call and ive lost plenty backing and opposing them in the past. They seem to save their best for the big teams and I don’t see Wednesday being any different. Downing is key to them and if his crosses are on target then they could test a Chelsea defence that look shaky at times.
Verdict
Chelsea have been level at the break in their last three games and Boro will come with a defensive attitude. With that in mind it may be worth chancing that Boro will hold Chelsea out until the 2nd half.
Pick
Draw HT/ Chelsea FT (5 @ VC) 5 points
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Blackburn V Bolton
Big Sam returns to his old club and this another game that screams out a low scoring dull affair. Allardyce has introduced some stability and is unbeaten as of yet and faces a Bolton side that has slumped a little recently.
Blackburn have won 3 and drawn 3 since Ince left the club and while they are still bottom they have improved their chances of survival considerably.
Bolton have lost 8 of the last 9 in all competitions but on closer inspection have had to face Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa in that sequence which is a nightmare run of fixtures.
Verdict
This is a derby game so anything can happen but Bolton will be glad to have some very tough games out of the way. This will be tough, uncompromising and we probably wont see too many goals but I fancy Bolton to battle their way to a draw. Kevin Nolan is back from suspension and he will be key.
0 – 0 or 1 – 1 id say
PICK
Draw (3.34 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Manchester City V Newcastle United
You do get the feeling that Man City are due a change in fortune at some stage and it could finally come against a poor travelling Newcastle side on Wednesday. They have been fairly erratic but are capable of decent performances especially at Eastlands where they seem a little more comfortable. The recent signing of Craig Bellamy and Nigel De Jong are big addition’s to the squad and should stabilize things a bit. With all their money there has been plenty of action in the transfer market with a ridiculous amount reportedly offered to Kaka which he refused. Also to add a little spice to this encounter they are supposedly very close to getting the signature of Shay Given. Robinho also has a big point to prove to the fans after going AWOL in Tenerife.
Newcastle are struggling and Kinnear’s honeymoon period is long over. They have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 games and were humiliated 3 – 0 at Blackburn on their last away trip. Apart from Joey Barton and Jose Enrique’s on field argument during the Blackburn match, it is reported that there have been some training ground incidents also which has done little for morale. Sitting 2 points above relegation is a dodgy spot to be and there is pressure on players and staff to start collecting some points.
Verdict
It’s only a matter of time before Man City click and their two new signings could prove to be the inspiration behind a win. Newcastle are unpredictable but I don’t see them causing an upset here.
Pick
Man City – 1 (2.31 @ bet365) 5 points
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Chelsea V Middlesborough
My first thoughts were Chelsea to win this very easy but on reflection im not so sure. Chelsea’s home form has not been so hot and their confidence looks shot since Liverpool broke their unbeaten record. They were very close to being humiliated by lowly Stoke last time out before two very late Lampard goals stole the points for them. 3 points are critical after Man Utd's show at West Brom and Chelsea need to keep up the pace.
It seems like forever since Middlesborough won a game (fa cup aside) and they have now lost 4 on the trot away from home. However, they are a notoriously tricky team to call and ive lost plenty backing and opposing them in the past. They seem to save their best for the big teams and I don’t see Wednesday being any different. Downing is key to them and if his crosses are on target then they could test a Chelsea defence that look shaky at times.
Verdict
Chelsea have been level at the break in their last three games and Boro will come with a defensive attitude. With that in mind it may be worth chancing that Boro will hold Chelsea out until the 2nd half.
Pick
Draw HT/ Chelsea FT (5 @ VC) 5 points
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Blackburn V Bolton
Big Sam returns to his old club and this another game that screams out a low scoring dull affair. Allardyce has introduced some stability and is unbeaten as of yet and faces a Bolton side that has slumped a little recently.
Blackburn have won 3 and drawn 3 since Ince left the club and while they are still bottom they have improved their chances of survival considerably.
Bolton have lost 8 of the last 9 in all competitions but on closer inspection have had to face Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa in that sequence which is a nightmare run of fixtures.
Verdict
This is a derby game so anything can happen but Bolton will be glad to have some very tough games out of the way. This will be tough, uncompromising and we probably wont see too many goals but I fancy Bolton to battle their way to a draw. Kevin Nolan is back from suspension and he will be key.
0 – 0 or 1 – 1 id say
PICK
Draw (3.34 @ pinnacle) 5 points
Tuesday night
West Brom V Manchester United
Its fairly hard to argue with the odds on the away win here as it is top versus bottom and United are in top form.
On that basis its better to look elsewhere for a bit of value and I like the 4.6 about it being a draw at half time before United pull away to win by full time. Manchester United’s last 5 away games have been close affairs and there has only 3 goals in just over 45of minutes of play.
West Brom would be more than happy to take the point and they will probably set out to defend from the start. This is risky business though especially against a team like United that can cut open defences at ease. Their form has picked up a little in recent times and they will be well up for this one coming off a 3 – 0 win against Boro last time out.
United are full of injuries at the moment and it looks as if Fletcher may be used at right back which is hardly ideal. # R. Ferdinand
Hargreaves, W. Brown, Evra, Rooney, Anderson, Evans, Welbeck and Da Silva are all out. They will also need a much better display and attitude from Ronaldo.
Verdict
United may be well short on numbers but its still hard to see them not picking up the 3 points. Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Ronaldo is a formidable midfield and they should provide plenty of chances for Berbatov and Tevez. West Brom should make this interesting but I can’t see them holding United out for the full 90
Pick
Draw HT/ Man United FT 4.6 @ canbet ( 4 points)
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Sunderland V Fulham
Sometimes you just see a fixture that screams out 0 - 0 to you and this is one of them. My brother had the misfortune of getting a free ticket to the reverse fixture at Craven cottage and he was so bored that he left shortly after half time. Ricky Sbragia has been pretty quiet on the transfer front though Chimbonda has returned to Spurs. Sbragia will also be hoping that striker Kenwyne Jones does not head for the exit also.
Fulham have lost Jimmy Bullard to Hull, a strange move as he was an important player to them but for a fee they couldn’t afford to turn down. Traditionally, Fulham are very strong at home, and rarely win on their travels, this year has been much of the same though they have taken 5 draws, most notably at Liverpool and Villa.
I could blag my way through a long preview here but I wont. I don’t think either have enough creativity to create too many chances. Fulham tend to play defensively and be happy for a point on the road and tomorrow should be no different. If this game is scoreless approaching the 60 minute mark then both teams will be more than happy to settle for the draw as Sunderland especially need some points on the board. 0 – 0 for me or else the odd goal to settle it.
PICK
Sunderland V Fulham under 1.5 goals ( 2.9 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Tottenham V Stoke
Interestingly nobody is giving the visitors a chance here despite the fact that they were only a few minutes away from winning at Stamford bridge just 2 weeks ago. Lets look at the facts first, these two teams are level on points, Spurs have only won once in their last 5 games at the lane (a 1 – 0 win over Blackburn way back in November) and have only scored twice in those five games, Hardly the home record to strike fear into the opposition.
Stoke’s record is not too inspiring either to be honest having lost 4 of the last 5 away. However their recent attitude has been spot on and they will take heart from their display at Chelsea where they deserved a point at the very least. Spurs have had a lot of game time recently and injury problems and Cudicini could be thrown straight into goal for his debut.
Verdict
Tottenham have not done enough for me to recommend to anyone backing them at circa 1.6 so il be siding with the visitors. While results haven’t been too hot for Stoke they seem to be at least operating as a unit which is more than can be said for the home side here. Stoke draw no bet
PICK
Stoke draw no bet ( 4.5 @ paddy power) 3 points
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Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Can it get any worse for Pompey? Dumped out of the FA cup to Swansea and confidence seems to be at an all time low. Villa on the other hand remain in the top four and have been in top form and are unbeaten in the league since November 9th. Home and away they have looked good and they will be quietly confident of taking 3 points at Fratton Park.
Both sides have been involved in the transfer window as Pompey have lost Diarra to Real Madrid, Defoe to Spurs and signed Mullins and Pele also taking Pennant on loan. Villa seem to be under pressure to hold onto Ashley Young while they have picked up Emile Heskey from Wigan.
To my mind this game is sh*t or bust for Tony Adams and he will be looking for a response from his players, they have only taken two points from the last 18 on offer and are heading for trouble if they don’t start picking up points.
Verdict
Aston Villa are a little too short for my liking and have relied on a little luck in their recent games. That luck has to run out eventually and Pompeys has to improve. On a cold damp night in the South I think both will cancel each other out and will have to settle for a point each.
Portsmouth /Aston Villa draw (3.45 @ pinnacle) 4 points
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Hereford V Millwall
Hereford may be 2 places from bottom but have shown recent signs of improvement and have a great chance to take 3 points against Millwall on Tuesday. They put 5 past 3rd placed Oldham in their last home outing and Oldham are a dam good team. Steve Guinan has nine goals in his last 11 matches and they will look to him to get them out of trouble at the foot of the table. Millwall suffered a 2 – 0 defeat to Hull at the weekend which ended their FA Cup dreams for another year. They are in the playoff spots at the moment but automatic promotion is still very much within their grasp. This is a game that will test their credentials, as a long trip to Hereford on a Tuesday evening is no soft touch. Millwall do their best work at home where they have the second best record in the league and their away form is erratic.
Hereford to follow up on their excellent win against Oldham. Draw no bet in case of a draw
Pick
Hereford draw no bet ( 2.25@ bet365) 5 points
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Barnet V Shrewsbury
My final pick for Tuesdays games. Barnet’s displays have improved with their managerial change at Christmas and they look good to cause a slight shock with a win over Shrewsbury. They have looked a lot more composed at the back recently and are not shipping as many soft goals as they did previously. Despite going down to 10 men in their last two games they have still managed to draw both games and if they can keep 11 players on the field then they have a great chance against a Shrewsbury side that has not won an away game in 5 months! That’s a long time to go without winning and that kind of thing plays on the mind of players, especially the longer it goes on. The goals have dried up for the visitors too and this looks like a sure fire unders game but il stick with the nice odds on the Barnet win, draw no bet for me though as im playing it a bit conservatively!
PICK
Barnet draw no bet (2.3 @ VC) 5 points
Its fairly hard to argue with the odds on the away win here as it is top versus bottom and United are in top form.
On that basis its better to look elsewhere for a bit of value and I like the 4.6 about it being a draw at half time before United pull away to win by full time. Manchester United’s last 5 away games have been close affairs and there has only 3 goals in just over 45of minutes of play.
West Brom would be more than happy to take the point and they will probably set out to defend from the start. This is risky business though especially against a team like United that can cut open defences at ease. Their form has picked up a little in recent times and they will be well up for this one coming off a 3 – 0 win against Boro last time out.
United are full of injuries at the moment and it looks as if Fletcher may be used at right back which is hardly ideal. # R. Ferdinand
Hargreaves, W. Brown, Evra, Rooney, Anderson, Evans, Welbeck and Da Silva are all out. They will also need a much better display and attitude from Ronaldo.
Verdict
United may be well short on numbers but its still hard to see them not picking up the 3 points. Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Ronaldo is a formidable midfield and they should provide plenty of chances for Berbatov and Tevez. West Brom should make this interesting but I can’t see them holding United out for the full 90
Pick
Draw HT/ Man United FT 4.6 @ canbet ( 4 points)
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Sunderland V Fulham
Sometimes you just see a fixture that screams out 0 - 0 to you and this is one of them. My brother had the misfortune of getting a free ticket to the reverse fixture at Craven cottage and he was so bored that he left shortly after half time. Ricky Sbragia has been pretty quiet on the transfer front though Chimbonda has returned to Spurs. Sbragia will also be hoping that striker Kenwyne Jones does not head for the exit also.
Fulham have lost Jimmy Bullard to Hull, a strange move as he was an important player to them but for a fee they couldn’t afford to turn down. Traditionally, Fulham are very strong at home, and rarely win on their travels, this year has been much of the same though they have taken 5 draws, most notably at Liverpool and Villa.
I could blag my way through a long preview here but I wont. I don’t think either have enough creativity to create too many chances. Fulham tend to play defensively and be happy for a point on the road and tomorrow should be no different. If this game is scoreless approaching the 60 minute mark then both teams will be more than happy to settle for the draw as Sunderland especially need some points on the board. 0 – 0 for me or else the odd goal to settle it.
PICK
Sunderland V Fulham under 1.5 goals ( 2.9 @ boylesports) 4 points
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Tottenham V Stoke
Interestingly nobody is giving the visitors a chance here despite the fact that they were only a few minutes away from winning at Stamford bridge just 2 weeks ago. Lets look at the facts first, these two teams are level on points, Spurs have only won once in their last 5 games at the lane (a 1 – 0 win over Blackburn way back in November) and have only scored twice in those five games, Hardly the home record to strike fear into the opposition.
Stoke’s record is not too inspiring either to be honest having lost 4 of the last 5 away. However their recent attitude has been spot on and they will take heart from their display at Chelsea where they deserved a point at the very least. Spurs have had a lot of game time recently and injury problems and Cudicini could be thrown straight into goal for his debut.
Verdict
Tottenham have not done enough for me to recommend to anyone backing them at circa 1.6 so il be siding with the visitors. While results haven’t been too hot for Stoke they seem to be at least operating as a unit which is more than can be said for the home side here. Stoke draw no bet
PICK
Stoke draw no bet ( 4.5 @ paddy power) 3 points
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Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Can it get any worse for Pompey? Dumped out of the FA cup to Swansea and confidence seems to be at an all time low. Villa on the other hand remain in the top four and have been in top form and are unbeaten in the league since November 9th. Home and away they have looked good and they will be quietly confident of taking 3 points at Fratton Park.
Both sides have been involved in the transfer window as Pompey have lost Diarra to Real Madrid, Defoe to Spurs and signed Mullins and Pele also taking Pennant on loan. Villa seem to be under pressure to hold onto Ashley Young while they have picked up Emile Heskey from Wigan.
To my mind this game is sh*t or bust for Tony Adams and he will be looking for a response from his players, they have only taken two points from the last 18 on offer and are heading for trouble if they don’t start picking up points.
Verdict
Aston Villa are a little too short for my liking and have relied on a little luck in their recent games. That luck has to run out eventually and Pompeys has to improve. On a cold damp night in the South I think both will cancel each other out and will have to settle for a point each.
Portsmouth /Aston Villa draw (3.45 @ pinnacle) 4 points
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Hereford V Millwall
Hereford may be 2 places from bottom but have shown recent signs of improvement and have a great chance to take 3 points against Millwall on Tuesday. They put 5 past 3rd placed Oldham in their last home outing and Oldham are a dam good team. Steve Guinan has nine goals in his last 11 matches and they will look to him to get them out of trouble at the foot of the table. Millwall suffered a 2 – 0 defeat to Hull at the weekend which ended their FA Cup dreams for another year. They are in the playoff spots at the moment but automatic promotion is still very much within their grasp. This is a game that will test their credentials, as a long trip to Hereford on a Tuesday evening is no soft touch. Millwall do their best work at home where they have the second best record in the league and their away form is erratic.
Hereford to follow up on their excellent win against Oldham. Draw no bet in case of a draw
Pick
Hereford draw no bet ( 2.25@ bet365) 5 points
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Barnet V Shrewsbury
My final pick for Tuesdays games. Barnet’s displays have improved with their managerial change at Christmas and they look good to cause a slight shock with a win over Shrewsbury. They have looked a lot more composed at the back recently and are not shipping as many soft goals as they did previously. Despite going down to 10 men in their last two games they have still managed to draw both games and if they can keep 11 players on the field then they have a great chance against a Shrewsbury side that has not won an away game in 5 months! That’s a long time to go without winning and that kind of thing plays on the mind of players, especially the longer it goes on. The goals have dried up for the visitors too and this looks like a sure fire unders game but il stick with the nice odds on the Barnet win, draw no bet for me though as im playing it a bit conservatively!
PICK
Barnet draw no bet (2.3 @ VC) 5 points
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Im back!
After a much needed break im back and feeling good. My internet service was changed in my absense so i had to wait a few days for full service to resume. I missed out on this weekend's betting which didnt bother me too much as i had very little fancies anyway. There plenty of football games to chose from midweek and the Gaa season kicks off next weekend which i always look forward to.
Il try to have a few bits up tomorrow night for Tuesdays games so check back if you wish.
Cheers!
Il try to have a few bits up tomorrow night for Tuesdays games so check back if you wish.
Cheers!
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Some down time
Luckily for me i will be jet setting around the world tomorrow so i probably wont be online all that much in the next 2 weeks or so. Im heading for the Carribean so im not sure what restrictions there are on gambling websites out there. Nevertheless il try to get online if possible if something catches my eye.
Good Luck
Good Luck
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