Saturdays picks

Fulham V Liverpool

This is a very tricky game for Liverpool here and the odds on their win have been rising all week. Since Everton lost to Chelsea on Thursday night the need for 3 points is not as great and they can afford the luxury of resting several key players. Torres is out and Benitez looks to give Crouch a run. Reports suggest Gerrard is also to be rested owing to a neck injury and without these two Liverpool are severely lacking in creativity.
It’s now or never for Fulham. 2nd from bottom with 4 games to save their season. They gave themselves a huge chance beating Reading away last weekend so confidence will be up. They also have beaten Liverpool on the last 2 trips to Craven Cottage so wont be one bit in awe of their opponents. Relegation would be a disaster for the club as they don’t necessarily have the fanbase or financial backing to insure that they can come back up to the premiership. It’s a case that if they go down then it may be a very long time before they reappear so a win here is crucial.

Verdict
Fulham have huge motivation for this one whereas Liverpool can afford to take their foot off the pedal. They have a season defining game against Chelsea next week and if I were a liverpool player then that is where my priorities would lie. The odds on Fulham are worth a shot in the circumstances, draw no bet in the even of a stalemate.

PICK

Fulham draw no bet (2.63 @ boylesports) 4 points


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Arsenal V Reading

Probably not a very original pick but I watched Reading last week and they were truly awful. They couldn’t pass it, there was no spirit and they never threatened Man City’s defence at all. Kevin Doyle hasn’t scored for months and they look pretty clueless up front.
Wenger has described the last few days as the worst of his Arsenal career. They crashed out of the champion’s league and despite playing well lost 2 – 1 to Man Utd last week ending any hopes of silverware. It may be beyond reach at this stage but 2nd place is still the target and Arsenal are desperate to get back to winning ways if only to restore a little credibility and confidence. If there is any consolation for Arsenal it is that they played exceptionally at times against both Liverpool and United, but had very little luck and were undone by some poor refereeing calls and some poor finishing. Interestingly they haven't won a League game at the Emirates since February 11th and are under pressure to give something back to the home fans.

Verdict
Reading need a result but I don’t think they are capable of threatening Arsenal. The Gunners need a win badly and should pass Reading off the field. If they convert even a quarter of the chances they will create then this should be comfortable.

PICK
Arsenal –1, -1.5 (1.8 @ betdirect) 6 points


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Wigan V Tottenham

Huge game for Wigan here. 3 points and they have one foot on safe soil. 1 points or a defeat and they are going to go down to the wire. Their recent home form is saving them and they are undefeated in 5 including a draw with Arsenal. The main reason they are so good at home is because of their pitch. For those of you who don’t know, they share their field with the rugby team and it is in appalling condition to say the very least. Teams can’t get any rhythm or movement going there and it is very difficult to string passes together.
Tottenham are a pacy side who rely on speed and a crisp passing pattern to cut through opponents. The field will not suit their style. They have taken their foot off the pedal in recent weeks and have very little to play for at this stage as a European spot is out of reach. With little or no motivation apparent it’s hard to see them getting a result. However they are capable of scoring goals at any time so always remain a threat. But and it’s a big but, their defence can be laughable sometimes and its no coincidence that they have the most goals per game ratio. Only 3 sides have conceded more than them.

Verdict
I see a home win here as they are more focused and have more to play for. As I said though Spurs attack always posses a threat so maybe draw no bet is the best option still at very nice odds.

PICK
Wigan DNB ( 1.85 @ game bookers) 7 points


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Southampton V Burnley

The hosts are in severe need of points here today and their recent good home form should be enough to see off a Burnley side who are settled nicely in mid table.
Southampton have picked up the tempo a little and are 4 home games, the last outing being a deserved 2 – 0 win over promotion contenders Bristol City. They have tightened up in the defence and look to keep a 4th consecutive clean sheet at home today.
Burnley are floating kind of aimlessly in mid table. They have lost the last 5 on their travels and appear to bethinking of their summer holidays already. Coming into this game in that form against a more motivated team then its hard to see any reason to side with the visitors.

Verdict
Southampton appear to have all that is needed today for a win. Motivation, better form and a tough team to play on their own patch. Home win

PICK
Southampton win (1.91 @ boylesports) 5 points


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Rochdale V Morecambe

The hosts are in fine form at the moment and can consolidate a playoff spot with a win today. At home they are banging goals in for fun and have scored 20 goals in the last 6 home games.
With Wycombe still searching for that last playoff place Rochdale are not yet home and dry so 3 points is still a requirement.
Morecambe are playing for nothing other than pride as they are out of reach of the playoff spots and their season is pretty much finished. Sitting in 10th spot they can be pretty content with their season so far but will probably see their away form as where they slipped up and they are winless in the last 5 on the road.

Verdict
Motivated against a team with little to play for. Home side are scoring freely and Morecambe have not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games.

PICK
Rochdale (1.62 @ centrebet) 6 points

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Nottingham Forest V Luton

Not much to say about this one. Forest can confirm their playoff spot with a win here today. More importantly the two sides above them Carlisle and Doncaster both have tricky ties today so 2nd place is still very much within their grasp providing they win today. This should provide enough motivation for the them, as they would much prefer to go up automatically instead of the lottery that is the playoffs.
Luton are down and out and already preparing for next season. Their away record (1 – 5 – 15) says it all really and they are only playing for pride. 1 clean sheet in the last 13away outings doesn’t inspire much confidence and they will be looking to get the year over and done with as soon as possible.

PICK
Forest – 1, -1.5 (1.9 @ vcbet) 5 points