Heineken Cup Saturday

Munster V Clermont Auvergne

This is a huge game for both sides and could be potentially classed as a make or break game. Last weeks win for Clermont has really stirred things up and made things interesting. As defending champions Munster have not reached the heights that they are capable of getting to and should know by now that every team wants to beat the best so they can expect no easy ride They have struggled to get any rhythm going and as usual a lot today will hinge on O Gara and his boot. Clermont’s 6 point win last week was a surprise to some but in reality they have some excellent players and at odds of 26 outright could give you a good run for your money.
Their biggest disadvantage is that there are doubts about their fitness levels as they were visibly tiring towards the end of last week’s class. Hooker Ledesma has been resigned to the bench and it is likely that he will be used as an impact sub in the course of the final 20 minutes when his teammates might need a boost. They are tough in the tackle and at times brushed some of the Munster player’s aside and were able to register some easy scores.
Munster always seem to need a bit of danger in their play. It’s at this stage every season that they look like a spent force and almost always stick in a poor performance along the way. But they always seem to bounce back and they will be glad to be back at Thomand Park where they look most comfortable. With only a losing bonus point from last week’s encounter another defeat is unthinkable and the crowd will need to get behind them from the very start.
Clermonts strengths are similar to Munster in that they hold on to possession and look to stretch the opposition and Brock James will be crucial. One poor kick and the crowd will be on his back and he could be in for a tough afternoon. As I said O Gara needs to have his kicking boots on and O Callaghan and O Connell will be crucial in the lineout.

Verdict
I see this being very tight but I think Munster’s experience and that remarkable home record will see them through but only just by a few. Theres a couple of hours to kick off yet but it is pelting rain outside and this could be a low scoring tie settled by a few points

PICK
Munster win by 1 – 12 points (2.88 @ bluesq) 4 points
Munster win by 1 – 5 points (8.5 @ skybet) 1 point


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Harlequins v Stade Francais Paris

I very nearly missed this one but im very surprised at the odds on the away win here. Harlequins won last week in France but to my mind it was more down to poor play from the French who never stamped their authority on the game. Defeat for the French side last week came as a big surprise to many and Im sure that todays odds are a reflection of that game rather than the current strengths and weaknesses of both sides. They had not been defeated at home since 2002 in this competition so theres a little revenge planned for Quins today. Man for man Stade Francais are a better outfit and are very much fancied to be in the shake up at the end and it would be an even bigger surprise if they didn’t at least reach the semis. Some poor handling will need to be improved and their decision making was also very questionable the last evening as they didn’t look up for a fight at all.
Dean Richards Harlequins side sit n pole position and have given themselves a great chance of progressing to the next round. Today’s game will be a huge test of their character though as they aim to show that last weeks result wasn’t a fluke. They had the advantage mentally last week as they made a lot more use of possession and clearly rattled their opponents with their determination. Danny Care and Nick Evans are the pivotal players for them and they both need to be on top form to reproduce another win.

Verdict
This ones a little short but I can’t pass up Stade at those odds. Another defeat today will be a serious blow to them and they wont be as laid back as last week where I think a little complacency had crept in. Its do or die for them and I expect a hugely improved performance. The pressure is now on the home side to reproduce the form they showed last week and that might prove too much for them. If Stade get in front early on then this could be over in no time.

PICK

Stade Francais Paris ( 2.2 @ ladbrokes) 5 points