Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Tuesday night

West Brom V Manchester United

Its fairly hard to argue with the odds on the away win here as it is top versus bottom and United are in top form.
On that basis its better to look elsewhere for a bit of value and I like the 4.6 about it being a draw at half time before United pull away to win by full time. Manchester United’s last 5 away games have been close affairs and there has only 3 goals in just over 45of minutes of play.
West Brom would be more than happy to take the point and they will probably set out to defend from the start. This is risky business though especially against a team like United that can cut open defences at ease. Their form has picked up a little in recent times and they will be well up for this one coming off a 3 – 0 win against Boro last time out.
United are full of injuries at the moment and it looks as if Fletcher may be used at right back which is hardly ideal. # R. Ferdinand
Hargreaves, W. Brown, Evra, Rooney, Anderson, Evans, Welbeck and Da Silva are all out. They will also need a much better display and attitude from Ronaldo.

Verdict
United may be well short on numbers but its still hard to see them not picking up the 3 points. Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Ronaldo is a formidable midfield and they should provide plenty of chances for Berbatov and Tevez. West Brom should make this interesting but I can’t see them holding United out for the full 90

Pick
Draw HT/ Man United FT 4.6 @ canbet ( 4 points)

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Sunderland V Fulham

Sometimes you just see a fixture that screams out 0 - 0 to you and this is one of them. My brother had the misfortune of getting a free ticket to the reverse fixture at Craven cottage and he was so bored that he left shortly after half time. Ricky Sbragia has been pretty quiet on the transfer front though Chimbonda has returned to Spurs. Sbragia will also be hoping that striker Kenwyne Jones does not head for the exit also.
Fulham have lost Jimmy Bullard to Hull, a strange move as he was an important player to them but for a fee they couldn’t afford to turn down. Traditionally, Fulham are very strong at home, and rarely win on their travels, this year has been much of the same though they have taken 5 draws, most notably at Liverpool and Villa.
I could blag my way through a long preview here but I wont. I don’t think either have enough creativity to create too many chances. Fulham tend to play defensively and be happy for a point on the road and tomorrow should be no different. If this game is scoreless approaching the 60 minute mark then both teams will be more than happy to settle for the draw as Sunderland especially need some points on the board. 0 – 0 for me or else the odd goal to settle it.

PICK
Sunderland V Fulham under 1.5 goals ( 2.9 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Tottenham V Stoke

Interestingly nobody is giving the visitors a chance here despite the fact that they were only a few minutes away from winning at Stamford bridge just 2 weeks ago. Lets look at the facts first, these two teams are level on points, Spurs have only won once in their last 5 games at the lane (a 1 – 0 win over Blackburn way back in November) and have only scored twice in those five games, Hardly the home record to strike fear into the opposition.
Stoke’s record is not too inspiring either to be honest having lost 4 of the last 5 away. However their recent attitude has been spot on and they will take heart from their display at Chelsea where they deserved a point at the very least. Spurs have had a lot of game time recently and injury problems and Cudicini could be thrown straight into goal for his debut.

Verdict
Tottenham have not done enough for me to recommend to anyone backing them at circa 1.6 so il be siding with the visitors. While results haven’t been too hot for Stoke they seem to be at least operating as a unit which is more than can be said for the home side here. Stoke draw no bet

PICK
Stoke draw no bet ( 4.5 @ paddy power) 3 points


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Portsmouth v Aston Villa

Can it get any worse for Pompey? Dumped out of the FA cup to Swansea and confidence seems to be at an all time low. Villa on the other hand remain in the top four and have been in top form and are unbeaten in the league since November 9th. Home and away they have looked good and they will be quietly confident of taking 3 points at Fratton Park.
Both sides have been involved in the transfer window as Pompey have lost Diarra to Real Madrid, Defoe to Spurs and signed Mullins and Pele also taking Pennant on loan. Villa seem to be under pressure to hold onto Ashley Young while they have picked up Emile Heskey from Wigan.
To my mind this game is sh*t or bust for Tony Adams and he will be looking for a response from his players, they have only taken two points from the last 18 on offer and are heading for trouble if they don’t start picking up points.

Verdict
Aston Villa are a little too short for my liking and have relied on a little luck in their recent games. That luck has to run out eventually and Pompeys has to improve. On a cold damp night in the South I think both will cancel each other out and will have to settle for a point each.


Portsmouth /Aston Villa draw (3.45 @ pinnacle) 4 points

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Hereford V Millwall

Hereford may be 2 places from bottom but have shown recent signs of improvement and have a great chance to take 3 points against Millwall on Tuesday. They put 5 past 3rd placed Oldham in their last home outing and Oldham are a dam good team. Steve Guinan has nine goals in his last 11 matches and they will look to him to get them out of trouble at the foot of the table. Millwall suffered a 2 – 0 defeat to Hull at the weekend which ended their FA Cup dreams for another year. They are in the playoff spots at the moment but automatic promotion is still very much within their grasp. This is a game that will test their credentials, as a long trip to Hereford on a Tuesday evening is no soft touch. Millwall do their best work at home where they have the second best record in the league and their away form is erratic.
Hereford to follow up on their excellent win against Oldham. Draw no bet in case of a draw

Pick
Hereford draw no bet ( 2.25@ bet365) 5 points

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Barnet V Shrewsbury

My final pick for Tuesdays games. Barnet’s displays have improved with their managerial change at Christmas and they look good to cause a slight shock with a win over Shrewsbury. They have looked a lot more composed at the back recently and are not shipping as many soft goals as they did previously. Despite going down to 10 men in their last two games they have still managed to draw both games and if they can keep 11 players on the field then they have a great chance against a Shrewsbury side that has not won an away game in 5 months! That’s a long time to go without winning and that kind of thing plays on the mind of players, especially the longer it goes on. The goals have dried up for the visitors too and this looks like a sure fire unders game but il stick with the nice odds on the Barnet win, draw no bet for me though as im playing it a bit conservatively!

PICK
Barnet draw no bet (2.3 @ VC) 5 points

1 comment:

epm said...

A strange night for me. We were very close with Portsmouth wasting a lot of chances and definatelty enough to get a draw.
I didnt see the dominating display from Man Utd coming at all and Spurs finally clicked at home. At the odds i was taking though one or two wins will be enough to break even and we got that with the Sunderland game which went as i expected.

- 8.4 points