Six nations on saturday

Italy V Scotland

This is an important game for both sides as Italy need to win by 5 point’s minimum to avoid the wooden spoon.
Italy have really improved this year despite not winning any game yet. Apart from that second half collapse against Wales they have battled well and hit hard. They played very well last weekend against France in Paris and were only defeated by 12 points, which is far from an embarrassment. Its also fair to say that if they worked a little more on the final pass then they could have had 1 - 2 more tries. Coach Nick Mallet has named an unchanged side for this clash with Bergamasco still suspended.
Scotland had a terrific result last weekend beating the English at Murrayfield. A poor day weather wise meant the game was a little scrappy and it all came down to kicking but the Scots wont mind that one bit. Despite that win over a very unpredictable English side I am not all that impressed by Scotland. One try in the campaign is a poor return and they have relied on frees for the majority of their scoring. They seemed to through in the towel against Ireland and they sure wont be given any respect by the Italians today. Ospreys back Nikki Walker will not be able to take his starting place on the wing for Scotland after an ankle injury flared up in training so Dan Parks will start at stand-off with Paterson on the wing Simon Danielli returns to the wing in place of Rory Lamont, who suffered a horrendous triple cheekbone fracture against England, and Fergus Thomson comes in for Ross Ford at hooker.

Verdict
So Scotland have more points on the board at this stage though I strongly fancy Italy to get the better of them today. They have a decent record against Scotland beating them in 2000, 2004 in Rome and thumping them by 20 points in Murrayfield last year.
They also met during the world cup stages where Scotland just overcame Italy 18 – 16 putting them out of the tournament.
I would imagine that this is the game that the Italians have being gearing up for all season. They knew from the start that it would be difficult with games away to Wales, Ireland and France. They ran England very close in Rome but don’t seem to have any fear of playing Scotland which should carry them through today. They made France work exceptionally hard for scores last week and should probably be able to keep a try shy Scottish side restricted to 3 pointers. If they get their handling errors sorted then they could win this easy.
Italy to win by 5 – 7 points for me.
I feel that Scotlands win over England has improved the price on Italy and only for that Italy might have been going off here at 1.75 or so


PICK
Italy –1 (2 @ bet365) 5 points