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Tuesday night action

2009-03-03T01:04:00.007Z

West Brom V Arsenal

Mowbray the Baggies boss has already admitted that he won’t change the style of play that his side uses and this may be a good thing for this clash.
Arsenal may not have scored in a while but it’s only a matter of time before they start converting some of the many chances that have been falling there way. Van Persie could have had at least 3 against Fulham and at least they are creating chances as opposed to sitting back and waiting for things to happen. Its do or die now for West Brom as they sit bottom of the table 4 points adrift of Stoke and Boro. At this stage they have nothing to lose and they have to attack teams. To be fair to them they have tried to do this and have not sat back and tried to play for draws as some teams have. Some of their games have been riddled with goals and there have been 10 goals in the last 2 games at the Hawthorns.

Verdict
I see a few goals in this. Personally I wouldn’t touch the odds on the Arsenal win but West Brom will give away plenty of chances and Arsenal have to score eventually. Likewise Arsenal gave Fulham plenty of chances at the weekend and West Brom are a team that can punish them on their own turf. Over 2.5 for me.

PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2 @ eurobet) 4 points

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Plymouth V Watford

The championship is a complete betting mine for me this year so only small stake from now on as I don’t really trust anyone. I said at the weekend that If Wolves lose then Brum and Reading usually lose too and so it happened. Unfortunately I was on them to win so that wasn’t much good for me. Tonight I fancy them all to lose but don’t really advise getting too involves on any of them.
Plymouth beat Wolves at Molineux at the weekend but were a little lucky to hold on for the entire game. Wolves created enough but Plymouth who scored after 38 seconds defended their lead very well and took a very valuable 3 points down south. However they are in a poor run of form at the moment and cant seem to keep a clean sheet at home to save themselves. They have lost 3 of the last 4 at home conceding 10 goals in the process scoring just 3.
Watford are playing some great stuff at the moment and have won the last 3 games each by two goals to nil. They have pulled themselves out of the danger zone but still have much work to do before they are safe. Admittedly away from home they have not been as convincing but are in a good position going into this game on the back of 3 game winning streak which has generated confidence amongst the players. Look out for Tamas Priskin, who has bagged five goals in the last six matches and will looking to add to that tally on Saturday.

Verdict
It should be tight but ive been more impressed with the visitors in the last few games. They are playing with confidence and scoring goals. Plymouth have trouble keeping it tight at the back and I can’t see them keeping Watford out. Watford draw no bet for me

PICK
Watford draw no bet (2.10 @ ladbrokes) 4 points

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Bristol Rovers v Brighton

I had already marked this down as a home win before I found out about all the Brighton players missing through injury. At least 11 first team players are reported to be out, “Definitely sidelined after picking up injuries at the weekend are full-back Jim McNulty - who is in hospital after suffering a ruptured kidney - centre-half Tommy Elphick (ankle) and skipper Nicky Forster (calf).
Striker Glenn Murray and defender Kerry Mayo are back in training following hernia operations but will not be ready, and goalkeeper Michel Kuipers is out for a fortnight with a hamstring injury.
Gary Hart is a couple of weeks away with a knee injury and fellow forward Jonny Dixon is still missing with a thigh strain.
Defenders Colin Hawkins (hamstring) and Adam Hinshelwood (calf) complete the roll call, although neither have been ruled out yet.
Adam Virgo is still suspended but David Livermore is back from a ban and loan signings Lloyd Owusu and Matt Heath will be added to the squad.”
Ouch, that means there will be a new look side on view at Bristol.
Rovers are in mid table but cruising along nicely and recorded a decent 1 – 1 draw at Carlisle over the weekend. They are picking up points and heading in the right direction and are generally a decent outfit at home with a good record against the bottom half of the table.

Verdict
Its late, im tired and I won’t go into too much detail but I already had Bristol Rovers down as a home win before reading about Brightons problems. Brighton were shocking at the weekend losing 4 – 0 at home to lowly Crewe and surely Rovers will have far too much for them tonight.
Can’t see the odds lasting too long either, they have already dropped to a low of 1.57 at bet365 but can still be got at 1.75 @ betsense

PICKS

Bristol Rovers (1.75 @ betsense) 5 points
Without sounding greedy it may also be worth a pinch on the correct scorelines
3 - 0 (15 @ skybet) 1 point
4 - 0 (40 @ expekt) 1 point
5 - 0 (81 @ boylesports) 1 point

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Crewe V Carlisle

Crewe are on a decent run of results at the moment and are 4 wins out of the last 4. They have also won the last 4 at home and that run of form has seen them pull out of the relegation zone. Another win will pull them level on points with tonight’s visitor’s Carlisle. Carlisle are slipping a little and 1 point from the last possible 9 has left them living dangerously. Now is not the time of the year to be letting points slip as teams such as Crewe are picking up points and teams may find themselves in deep trouble before they realise it.
Carlisle have a good few injury worries with top-scorer Danny Graham, who limped out of the 1-1 draw with Bristol Rovers at the weekend rated very doubtful. Added to that, defender Danny Livesey as well midfielders Jeff Smith and Marc Bridge-Wilkinson will miss out and Evan Horwood is also sidelined with a knee problem.

Verdict
Crewe are on a good run and have won the last two games by four and two goals to nil. Given the confidence that they will have from that and the injury worries that Carlisle have. Il go for the home win and give the ¼ ball away.

PICK
Crewe –0.25 (1.9 @10bet) 4 points

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Southend V Millwall

Im a little surprised at the odds here because it’s the hosts that are in the better form and picking up the better results at the moment. They won 2 – 1 at Peterborough at the weekend, a fantastic result considering that only two teams have gone to Peterborough and won this season. With the bottom of the table being fairly congested its important that Southend keep picking up the points and they could almost be considered safe at this stage.
Nonetheless expect nothing less than a committed performance as they will look to keep another clean sheets having collected 3 in the last 4 at home. They have won the last 3 on the trot and are in that winning mood at the moment.
Millwall are very erratic and hard to gauge. They probably will be glad to get away from the Den as they have lost a few there lately and are under pressure to get a few results under their belt. That playoff spot is starting to look a little shaky now and they will look to improve on recent away form where they have picked up a few wins and seem to find it easier to score.
PICK
Millwall have been better on their travels recently but you can’t ignore the confidence and good run of results that Southend have had. I have a slight feeling for the draw here but may just go with Southend draw no bet as I see them sneaking it.

PICK
Southend draw no bet (1.82 @ pinnacle) 4 points

Oldham V Leeds

2009-03-02T13:32:00.000Z

Oldham V Leeds

This should be a decent game with both sides looking for 3 points to further their chances of consolidating that playoff spot.
Both are coming off decent wins at the weekend though arguably it was Oldham who were a bit more impressive. They surrendered a 2 – 0 lead to Millwall and were 2 – 2 heading into the late stages of the game before a late Taylor strike earned them valuable 3 points.
Oldham are pretty strong at home where they have only been beaten twice this season. After a 2 – 0 defeat to Bristol Rovers last time out they will be keen to get back to winning ways at Boundary Park.. Interestingly they have a good record against the top sides and are undefeated to any of the top 6 this season.
Leeds were also 3 – 2 winners and like Oldham they had a 2 –0 lead before letting Scunthorpe back into the game. Luckily for them Jermaine Beckford is fit at the moment and he is vital to their cause. He chipped in with 2 on Saturday and if they hope to have any luck tonight then he is the man to do the damage. Leeds have taken zero points from the last 3 away games and more alarmingly have failed to score in those 3 games. Their away form is very unpredictable and they need to start picking up a few more points away from Elland Road if they want to get a top 6 finish.

Verdict
This one is tricky to call, Leeds need a win just as much as Oldham and it will be an interesting test for Oldham’s boss John Sheridan who spent many years at Leeds and is still a fans favourite. You get the feeling that maybe both would settle for a draw if they were offered it right now. Losing would be a real kick in the teeth for either side and if the game is level entering the 60th to 70th minute then I don’t expect either team to risk everything going forward, and settle for a point apiece. For the stats lovers out there, Leeds are now 11 games without a draw so they are due one!

PICK

Draw (3.4 @ coral) 3 points

Premiership on Saturday

2009-02-28T10:40:00.001Z

Chelsea V Wigan

Looking at the premiership coupon its hard to see any real value. Arsenal are too short and theres not too many other angles on that game so il go with Chelsea. Again, the price is very short but Chelsea do look like home bankers. They have struggled a bit recently but new gaffer Hiddink has got two massive wins since he came and maybe things are on the way up again for them. The real problem has been scoring goals. Their defence has been mean enough but goals are the Achilles heal. Drogba is a shadow of the player he was and Anelka is now the main man and the top scorer. Since Liverpool beat their unbeaten record a few months back, Chelsea look like their confidence has been rattles. Luckily for them, a new manager, some good results and the season may yet get back on track.
Wigan have been struggling lately in the Premier League but considering the amount of players that have left the club its hardly surprising. They still have a good ranking in the table and are most definitely safe but where do they go from here? They wont get into Europe and wont go down so from now on I guess its all about securing that mid table position and giving the fans something to cheer about. Wigan drew their last four games, while the last three were goalless draws. Bruce realises that they are not the best going forward but is playing to his strengths and they are a tough side to break down. Mido and Valencia are doubtful but otherwise Bruce has a full squad to chose from.

Verdict
Wigan will come to defend, Chelsea really need the win and need to keep the pressure on Liverpool for that second place. They have the players and just need to get it right. One of the days they will click and destroy a team 4 or 5 nil. It wont happen today but thy should still be good enough to win this 1 or 2 - 0

PICK
Chelsea to win to nil (1.83 @ skybet) 4 points
Anelka 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ VC) 1 point

Championship on Saturday

2009-02-28T10:22:00.002Z

Wolves V Plymouth

It seems that Wolves are doing their very best to throw it all away. A poor run of form has seen them lose any points advantage they had but they are lucky as Reading and Birmingham are also failing to capitalise. It seems that if one of these win, then they all win and if one loses that they all seem to drop points. Wolves are still a decent outfit and not turned over to easy at Molineaux. Luckily for them Plymouth are heading southwards themselves and 3 defeats in the last 4 and a pretty poor away record is hurting them.
Wolves are on a bad run themselves but importantly are scoring goals, its just defending where the problem lies. Plymouth though are not free scoring enough to cause problems to the Wolves defence

Verdict
Wolves finally have to get back on track and should have too much firepower for a goal shy Plymouth today. The odds are nothing to shout about but a worthwhile addition to any acca

PICK
Wolves win (1.53 @ paddy power) 6 points

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Reading V Nottingham forest

Reading like Wolves are in a bit of a rut at the moment but it can only be a matter of time before they start to play like they are capable of. Their bad run has coincided with a bad patch from Kevin Doyle and he will be fairly eager to get back on the scoresheet and get the team going again. Despite struggling for goals, Steve Coppell’s men are managing to pick up points due to a tough defence that kept three consecutive clean sheets prior to the game against Bristol City. As with Wolves, Reading have a great chance to get 3 points today and mainly because of their opposition. Forest are sliding at the moment and are five league matches without victory. Last weeks 3 – 1 defeat to Derby will have knocked the stuffing out of them and their defence has opened up lately having conceded 12 goals in six matches.

Verdict
Reading are the closest to a premiership side in the championship and are due a bit of good fortune in front of the posts. Forest have conceded a few too many lately to suggest they can make it difficult for Coppells men. Reading to win 2 – 0

PICK

Reading (1.62 @ ladbrokes) 6 points

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Swansea V Charlton

Swansea may have been knocked out of the FA cup midweek but gained a lot of admirers for the way they played against their Premiership opponents. Now that the dream is over they will have got a taste for the lime light and will be keen to push on and secure a play off spot. They attack quite well, score plenty of goals and have a strong home record. Jason Scotland is having a fine season and has 14 goals in his last 15 appearances. If they don’t make it to the premiership this year, he probably will. They are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment winning the last 4 at home scoring 12 goals in the process.
Charlton have fallen a long way from the heights of the premiership a few short seasons ago and at this stage seem resigned to a place in league 1 next season. They have been scoring goals but the main problem has been in defence where they have conceded more goals than anyone else this season. 55 goals left in, that’s 1 to 2 a game. The 0 – 0 draw last time out was their first clean sheet in 12 games and it’s hard to see them keeping a rampant Swansea at bay for 90 minutes.

Verdict
Swansea are just getting too many goals at the moment. Although defeated during the week, their confidence is sky high and at home they are a match for any team. They have beaten the best in the league at home and should take another 3 points here in their bid for the premiership.

PICK
Swansea (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points

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Bristol City V Blackpool

Bristol have made some major progress at the club since Christmas rising from 18th to fifth in the Championship table. Last weeks 2 – 0 win at Reading further underlined their confidence and they have now won 8 of the last 10.
At home recently they are just as strong and have found their scoring boots scoring 2 a game in the last 4. When you get into the habit of winning games, confidence rises, players feel comfortable within themselves and good results follow. That’s whats happening at Bristol City and though many tipped them to go down this year it looks now like they are well in with a shout to make the playoffs and give Lordburt a day out.
Blackpool are struggling for points and having to scrap for everything they can. They are unpredictable to say the least and an example of this was beating Brum a few weeks back 2 – 0 only to be hammered 3 – 0 by QPR shortly afterwards. On the road they are just as erratic and every now and then spring a good result which is just enough to keep their head above water. They have a few injuries and suspension problems today so are weakened in one or two areas.

Verdict
Bristol City have the players to win this game comfortably. If the “good” Blackpool turn up on the day then they might have trouble with them but if they are serious about a top 6 finish then these are the kind of games they should be winning, especially at home.

PICK
Bristol City (1.77 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Six Nations on Saturday

2009-02-28T08:23:00.001Z

Ireland V England

Ireland may never have a better chance to win the six nations than they do right now. Wales losing in Paris last night was a huge bonus to Ireland and it will be interesting to see how they will react as its now theirs to lose. As I see it, this could yet come down to points if Ireland lose to Wales in Cardiff on the last day. First though we have to beat England and as always this Ireland/England clash should be good. Ireland definitely hold the upper hand in the recent clashes and England will be eager to avenge to 30-point defeat here in 2007. Ireland were impressive in their first outing against France, to be fair they struggled against Italy and the scoreline probably didn’t reflect the game as Ireland scored late tries to flatter themselves. Still it was the kind of poor performance that woke them up and they will need to be wide-awake today and not make any errors as England will pounce. As usual O Gara will have a massive influence on the game. He has got a lot of bad press in the English media down through the years and seems to save his best for these kind of games.
England really did well against Wales. Sure they lost but restored a bit of pride as they were never expected to win in Cardiff in the first place. They have showed signs of improvement but the team is changed once again disrupting things and making it harder to predict. Toby Flood comes in for Andy Goode and this means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times and used five different players in 10 Test matches. That kind of chopping and changing is not good for anyone but I do think Flood is the best man at the moment. Im not sure where Cipriani has disappeared to? Flood is the only significant change for this game. One thing England need to clean up on is their discipline, 8 yellow card in the last 3 matches and they gave away needless penalties against Wales. This kind of indiscipline will hurt them, especially if O Gara is in the mood.

Verdict
Ireland should win this but it’s hard to gauge by how much. The handicap line has moved to 8 and 9 in places and this looks about right. As I said, much will depend on O Gara, he chipped in with 15 points against France, 11 against Italy and England did give away an awful amount of scoreable penalties against Wales. Therefore il go with O Gara to score more than 12 points or more. He beat it in the first game, would have beaten it in the second game only for a silly sin bin. If he has a good day then he’s obviously strong candidate for motm too. John Hayes is making a record number of appearances today for Ireland also and if he has a half decent game could be in the running for man of the match also to mark the occasion

PICK
Ronan O Gara 12 points or more (1.8 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Ronan O Gara man of the match (9 @ Paddy power) 1 point
John Hayes man of the match (67 @ Paddy power) 1 point

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Scotland V Italy

Surely this will be the battle to avoid the wooden spoon as neither look like picking up points in the remaining games. Scotland played above themselves in France but I still keep thinking of that terrible performance in Murrayfield against Wales on day one. No heart and no bottle that day but surely they can’t be as poor at home again? Max and Thom Evans will be very important today as they have the pace and invention to hurt Italy. Scoring tries and showing a bit of creativity has been the Scots biggest problem so far and it will be tough against a hard Italian pack today. Scotland need no reminding about the threats Italy pose as they have lost the last 2 to them.
Italy played quite well against Ireland but never really looked like they believed that they could win it. They hit hard and not always fairly but should have kept the scoreline much closer than they did. Eventually they tired and it was visible in the last 10 that they were on their last legs. It was in this time that Ireland pulled away as the Italians made poor handling errors and lost concentration. Having won in Edinburgh two years ago and with a win in Rome last season, Italy might have the belief that they don’t have against the bigger nations and they have made a few changes for the game. Marcato replaces the suspended full-back Masi while Bortolami comes in for the dropped Reato. Hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini returns from injury and should play

Verdict
If Scotland play t their potential then they could win this at a canter. Italy are not fit enough and look kind of clueless outside the scrum. The scots are not renowned as a free scoring side but its time to restore a bit of pride in the jersey.

PICK
Scotland – 8 points (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points

Six Nations on Friday

2009-02-26T21:38:00.002Z

France V Wales

I nearly missed this one as it is quite unusual to see games fixed for Friday night.
France kicked off the campaign with defeat in Dublin but were widely and rightly given praise after the display in which they were very unlucky to lose. That proved to be a bit of a false dawn though with an error strewn lack lustre performance against Scotland in Paris 2 weeks ago. They never really had any control in that game and were lucky to get over a fairly average Scottish side. The big news is that fly half Lionel Beauxis is out so Lievremont has to gamble a little and play the inexperienced Benoit Baby. Coming in at scrum half is Morgan Parra who is picked ahead of Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Its doubtful that France will be as poor again and lets remember they were well beaten in Cardiff last year so theres a score to settle.
Wales will be looking to equal the record of both England and France in going nine Six Nations Championship matches without defeat. Two wins from two over Scotland and England leave them in a good position to reclaim the six nations but there were a few doubts over their performance against England. Its hard to say if Wales were bad on the day or did England just play well but there were definitely a few areas exposed by England and the French will look to capitalise on these. Shane Williams is back though and he will be a huge help. He will fit back into the starting 15 and that’s likely to be the only change. Pretty boy Henson is back on the bench too.

Verdict
These are two of the best attacking sides to watch and this should be a great clash. If the real France turn up then the price on them will look huge come tomorrow night. They were poor against Scotland but this is a big game and they should be well up for it. As I see it this is very evenly balanced and I can’t ignore the odds on the home win. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but home venue and a hint of revenge could be the deciding factor in this. England proved that Wales can be got at and the French, if they chose to run the ball, are one of the fastest teams around Il take France to win in what should be a cracker.

PICK
France (2.4 @ sporting bet) 4 points

Uefa cup Thursday

2009-02-24T23:19:00.004Z

CSKA Moscow v Aston Villa

The odds have dropped dramatically since news emerged of the squad that Martin O Neill is taking to Moscow. Early prices of 2.10 have been smashed down to circa 1.6 and it’s hard to argue with that when you analyse the game.

CSKA
The Russian side may be on their winter break but showed no signs of rustiness on their visit to Villa Park in a 1 – 1 draw last week.
Many, including this writer thought that the winter break in which they had not played since early December would damage their chances. They deservedly took the leak through Vagnor Love and could have scored more if they had their shooting boots on. New coach Zico has instilled a sense of confidence in them and has changed their tactics from 3-5-2 to 4-4-2 but they have adapted without hassle. He has spoken of his delight at the attitude and performance of some of his players, in particular the younger generation.
In general there is a good vibe coming from the camp and they can draw confidence from the first leg performance and in particular their midfield which didn’t let Villa create many clear cut chances.
Aston Villa
As mentioned above Martin O Neill appears to have conceded the UEFA cup for this year to concentrate on a bigger prize, a top 4 standing in the league and a champion’s league spot next year. Gareth Barry, Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Carlos Cuellar and Stiliyan Petrov are all excluded from the travelling squad to Russia, all key players.
He said: "We have a couple of players who are carrying injuries and a couple of others who I believe need resting for the important final third of the season." This leaves O Neill with a largely inexperienced squad with the only regulars being Luke Young, Curtis Davies, Zat Knight and John Carew.
Obviously having conceded an away goal Villa will have to attack to get something from the tie. Its hard to see where the goals will come from though seeing as they are largely dependant on Barry, Milner and Young in the middle and Agbonlahor for scoring. In fact their best player in the first leg was Petrov and he’s also missing.

Verdict
Although the price has dropped it’s hard to argue with CSKA wining this one. A scoreless draw will see them through but they won’t play the game like this. Defending a 0 – 0 lead is too risky and they showed enough quality in the first leg to say that they can attack and score. Going to a cold plastic pitch in Russia would be tough for Villa’s full team and with this bunch of inexperienced players it going to be even harder.
CSKA to win 2 or 3 – 0

PICK
CSKA –1 ( 2.09 @ canbet) 6 points

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Standard V Braga

( In progress)

Champions League on wednesday

2009-02-24T20:37:00.003Z

Real Madrid V Liverpool

Kick-off: Wednesday, 25 February 2009
20:45 CET – Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

Real Madrid
Real come into this on the back of a successful weekend’s work in La Liga where they cut into Barcelona’s lead at the top with a convincing 6 – 1 win over Real Betis. They have now won nine games in a row, scoring 22 goals in the process while conceding just two. This run has helped them overcome a terrible opening to the season and has helped take the pressure of them somewhat as opposed to other seasons when they were heavily weighed down with expectation. Obviously the fans still expect success but firstly Real Madrid will attempt to get past the last 16 for the first time in five years.
They comfortably defeated BATE Borisov and Zenit St Petersburg at home in the group stages but were beaten 2 – 0 by Juventus.
It was at this stage last year when they made their exit in a 2 – 1 defeat to Roma.
Lassana Diarra came into the squad in January and has been a success story so far in the middle of the park. Also the signing of Huntelaar has recently begun to show promise though he is ineligible for the champions league. However attacking threat is not a problem with the likes of Robben, Raul, Higuain and Sneijder all able to pose an attacking threat.
Team News
Juande Ramos has the welcome luxury of having all his squad available for selection. Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder have fully recovered from their knocks and should start.

Liverpool
Liverpool had the complete opposite of Real in the last weekend of premiership action. The 1 – 1 draw with Manchester City not only lost them valuable points but further underlined the importance of the absent Steven Gerrard. Although he is included in the travelling squad to Madrid, there are concerns about his fitness having been out for three weeks out with a hamstring injury and at time of writing it is unknown if he will start.
This clash has probably come at the wrong time for Liverpool as they seem to have lost the confidence that put them top of the League. A tough run of fixtures saw them depart the FA Cup at the expense of rivals Everton and struggle to a 3 – 2 win over Portsmouth where 2 late goals saved their blushes. In Fernando Torres though they have a match winner and Real will need to watch him at all times as he is capable of striking out of nowhere. He will be eager to impress going back to play against his former club rivals. He never scored for Atletico at the Bernabeu but will be hoping to change that stat.
Team News
Gerrard is back but it’s hard to imagine he is at full match fitness. Sami Hyypia will replace Daniel Agger who has a back injury. Xabi Alonso returns from suspension.

Verdict
Real Madrid have only lost once to an English club at the Bernabeu, a 1 – 0 defeat to Arsenal in 2006. I think Real hold all the aces in this game. They have the confidence, the scoring power and home advantage, Gerarrd has scored 5 times in the last 5 champions league games and is pivotal to his teams chances but is he fit?. They have a good pedigree in Europe but for a team renowned for their defence have only one clean sheet in their last 10 Champions League matches and face a big task to keep Real out. Liverpool will be happy to defend and do the work at Anfield but I fancy Real to come through Wednesday night with a narrow win. Winning is important but keeping Liverpool without an away goal is also very important so expect a low scoring affair .
1 – 0 to Real Madrid

PICK
Real Madrid win (2.1 @ boylesports) 6 points

Sunday Picks

2009-02-21T22:23:00.003Z

Im sh*t out of luck at the moment and I apologise to anyone following my stuff. Lots of small things have gone against me lately and it really annoys me. Worse still im having amazing luck betting in play, getting everything right. A quick example of more luck, I was having trouble with one of my betting accounts yesterday, so the company in question set up a new account for me and gave me a €20 goodwill gesture, the only drawback was that it had to be used in the casino. Apart from the odd bout of blackjack im not really much for casino’s but I decided to use it anyhow. I went to the slots where I thought I was spinning for 20 cent a time, after pressing the button though I realised id messed up and played for 20 Euro instead of 20 cents. The result? I won a mini jackpot of €570. I withdrew the money straight away and thought my luck was changing for the better! Need to get my head right though and pick a few winners.

Fulham V West Brom

Fulham have one of the better home records in the premiership and look like getting their 8th home win of the season. They look way more solid at Craven Cottage and tight pitch seems to suit their style of play. They are tough to break down and only Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea have conceded fewer home goals. It’s this defensive quality that has seen them get numerous 0 – 0 draw on the road. Andy Johnson is a dangerous striker who is only feeding off scraps but has found the net out of nothing on more than one occasion.
West Brom are simply awful away and have picked up just five points and scoring a miserable six goals. Coming up against such a mean Fulham defence will be a tough assignment. Jay Simpson is back for selection which will be a boost. The baggies are bottom of the table and have the worst goal record in the league. To be quite honest it’s hard to find any positives for them in this game and even harder to see them getting anything from the game.

Verdict
West Brom are simply conceding too many goals and will find it very hard to break down the Fulham defence.
Fulham to win 1 or 2 – 0

PICK
Fulham win (1.83 @ VC) 6 points

Fulham to win to nil (2.75 @ bet365) 2 points

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Liverpool V Manchester City

Im probably going to get a lot of stick for this but im opposing Liverpool today. Im a guy who likes my stats and obviously everything points towards a home win here. Liverpool are strong at home, Man City are poor away so you are probably wondering where am I going with this.
Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso are out for Liverpool, now if you watch Liverpool enough you will know that both of these are central to the Pools attacking threat, they play in intelligent ball and Torres has scored many of his goals assisted by these two. With Man U winning yesterday there is real pressure on Liverpool to get 3 points today. But, it must be remembered that they have champions league on Wednesday against Real Madrid. Yesterday Real Madrid absolutely took Real Betis apart and were 6 – 1 up at HT before easing off in the second half. No matter what way you look at things im sure the Pool players were watching that game last night and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were not 100% focused today. Added to that they have a huge six pointer against Man U next week also to think about.
Man City have been poor away from Eastlands and this is mainly down to the fact that their big name players have failed to play to their potential. Robinho in particular has struggled but surely performing at Anfield in front of a huge TV audience will suit him today. Wright-Philips is out but Elano looks likely to play. Nigel de Jong was ineligible for the midweek Uefa cup trip to Denmark but should come straight back into the starting line-up. City have not won away in 10 games and were pretty lacklustre last time out in a 2 – 0 defeat to Pompey.

Verdict
Im not so sure that Liverpool will have this as easy as some people expect. I haven’t read anywhere that anyone has given City a chance but I think they do. Liverpool have only won 2 of their last 6 at Anfield and in that sequence have been held by Hull, West Ham and Fulham. With Gerard and Alonso out you are taking away a huge chunk of their creativity and defence splitting passes. Man City are nothing special but they have big players and should rise their game for today’s game. Lets not forget Bellamy is going back to his old club and has a point to prove. Liverpools midfield is not creative enough and I find it hard to see them getting many chances. Man City won away at Old trafford last season when nobody gave them a hope. Can they do something similar again? They will be close so small – medium stakes

PICK
Draw ( 4 @ ladbrokes) 3 points

Man City draw no bet (5 @ boylesports) 2 points

More Saturday football

2009-02-21T11:30:00.000Z

Reading V Bristol City

Despite trailing Wolves for most of the season Reading now have a huge chance to make a real push for top spot and automatic promotion. With two games in hand they sit just 4 points off the summit and need 3 points today after some patchy form. It seems that all the teams in the championship are doing their best to throw promotion away with so many mixed results and iffy performances. Reading though have one of the better home records and have taken 39 points from a possible 48.
Bristol City are no mugs either and have been banging in goals for fun lately. They have won 7 of their last 9 games and are making a real push for a playoff spot. They are bringing 4000 fans to the Madejski so obviously this is a game where they feel they can get something.
Both managers have relatively full squads to chose from.

Verdict
Its hard to call this one as even though I feel Reading will eventually win out the championship, there will be more twists and turns along the way. Bristol City certainly have enough options to trouble the Reading defence and for this reason I think over 2.5 goals is a safer option than taking the home win.
2 – 1 or 2 – 2 for me.

PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2.02 @ ladbrokes) 4 points

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2009-02-20T21:38:00.001Z

Arsenal V Sunderland

The return of Eduardo midweek was a huge boost to Arsenal and this was very evident and created a buzz amongst the fans. He chipped in with 2 goals and immediately people were thinking of what might have been if he had never been injured in the first place. Unfortunately he is out for a further two weeks with a strain he picked up so it’s back to square one for Wenger again. Arsenal have a good record against the Mackems and have won 4 of the last 5 games at home to them. At the stadium of light earlier in the year the Gunners were very lucky to come away with a point after a late late equaliser from Fabregas if I remember rightly. He is also out injured and joins a list that includes Rosicky, Silvestre,Adebayor,Diaby,Walcott and the previously mentioned Eduardo. That’s a big list of casualties but Wenger will be hoping that newly signed Arshavin can make an immediate impact.
Gunners are in iffy form at the moment but have still pulled 24 points from a possible 36 at the Emirates. Crucially they have not been losing games and are now just 4 points off Chelsea.
Sunderland are in 11th position but still need to gather points to ensure safety. They have amassed 13 points from a possible 36 on their travels and have only kept one clean sheet in that time. Sbragia claims to have got the morale up in the dressing room but going to the Emirates with only one clean sheet so far is a daunting test. Defender Phil Bardsley is suspended so either Davenport or Tal Ben Haim is set for a debut. Mcshane is back from Hull and Tainio appears to be fit again.

Verdict
3 points is a must for Arsenal, there has been much made of the fact that there are a few Arsenal players not ready to hang around if they don’t finish in the top 4 and they really need to start picking up points, especially at home. They have a lot of injuries but still have a lot of class in their team. I have nothing against Sunderland as a team but take them away from home and they look unconvincing. Wenger is looking ahead to the champions league next week but its vital his team go into that clash with some form of confidence.
Arsenal to win 2 – 0

PICK
Arsenal –1.25 (2.05 @ bet365) 6 points

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Aston Villa V Chelsea

This will be a massive game and it will have a huge bearing for a few teams. For Arsenal, just below these teams a draw is possibly the best result and the same could be said for Liverpool and Manchester United who are just above them. It’s a 12:45 kick off so its interesting to see how will Villa cope with the pressure of a huge tv audience watching. O Neill has done a fantastic job at Villa and they deserve to be playing champions league football next year. I just hope it’s not at the expense of my beloved Gunners.
About the tie though and Chelsea do not like playing Aston Villa and haven’t won here in 5 attempts. Gus Hiddink is the new gaffer at Chelsea till seasons end and players will be keen to impress him and get a regular starting berth.
This is a very tricky game to call, Villa have had lots of games lately and they have looked tired at times in recent games. They were well beaten by Everton last weekend and had to settle for a draw at home to CSKA Moscow in the UEFA Cup in midweek. At times they have even looked more comfortable away from home this season. Heskey and Milner are out but Sidwell is back from suspension.
Regarding away form the same can be said of Chelsea, who have won more games away from Stamford bridge than at home. Ashley Cole is suspended while Alex, Essien and Ricardo Carvalho are both doubtful. Hiddink hasn’t revealed too much about team selection though it is believed he will stick to similar lineouts from the last few weeks.

Verdict
Im weary of the draw but I think Chelsea have more plus points going for them coming into this one. They are better away from home and while trying to impress a new boss they should be able to take advantage of a slightly weakened Villa team. Martin Laursen is out for Villa and they look unsteady without him in the center of defence. Its been a long time since Chelsea were quoted at these kind of prices to beat a team out side the big 3.
I just cant see Villa winning so il take Chelsea draw no bet just in case of the draw.

PICK
Chelsea draw no bet ( 1.65 @ 10bet) 6 points

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Manchester United V Blackburn

You know what, theres not much point in me going into huge detail here. Man Utd are simply a cut above everyone else and the premiership its theirs to lose at this stage. Their home record is simply amazing and they have only dropped 2 points so far. You just get the feeling watching them (especially against the lower teams) that they can always step up a gear if they need to. They haven’t conceded in 14 games and even with a champion’s league coming up they can call on a bench full of stars that won’t weaken the team one bit. Rooney is back from injury, Vidic is on for player of the year and Scholes and Giggs are playing like they did 10 years ago. Man Utd's last 10 league games record reads DWWWWWWWWW (impressive right!)
Blackburn are in the danger zone but are capable of getting out of it. However they will probably stand a better chance in their next 2 games against Hull and Everton. They do have a reasonable record against United but realistically its damage limitation at Old Trafford tomorrow. They have been dodgy defensively and can’t afford to give any chances away tomorrow.

Verdict
Ronaldo, Rooney, Berbatov. Theres just far too much attacking talent in this United squad to see Blackburn causing any real threat. With their defence looking unbeatable it should only be a case of how many.

Man Utd – 1.5 goals ( 1.88 @ bet365) 6 points

Uefa cup Thursday

2009-02-18T23:19:00.000Z

FC København vs. Manchester City

The pressure is really on Mark Hughes and in reality the UEFA cup is his only real chance of bringing silverware to Eastlands this year.
Theres a few reasons why I feel City can get a result in Denmark,
Firstly they have performed much better in Europe than the premiership and topped group A with relative ease. Many of their players look more comfortable playing European teams and with no disrespect to their opponents this is one of the easier draws they could have got. They have also strengthened their squad with Wayne Bridge, Craig Bellamy and Shay Given all great additions to the squad. Robinho, Richards and Wright-Phillips are all back from injury and fit for selection.
Copenhagen are out of competitive action since December 7th , this backfired against me tonight with Villa and CSKA but I feel that the situations are different here and that has to be a big advantage for City as they will have the crucial edge in sharpness.
Copenhagen’s home form has been nothing to shout about so far only managing 2 draws in their last 3 outings at home.
With all this in mind and the fact that Hughes is really in need of some good performances I think that Man City will look to get the job done as soon as possible and don’t see them losing tomorrow night. They have the players to do the job and perhaps Shay Given might eventually get some silverware this year.

PICK
Manchester City –0.25 (2.05 @ bet365) 6 points

February Update

2009-02-18T22:26:00.002Z

Tonights result sees me even more down than before. Its hard to find a fine line between success and defeat but im either one or the other. Its all about finding the balance but il keep going and still have plenty of time to turn a profit in this month.
Overall im well ahead but its bad runs like this that drive me mad.
Onwards and upwards right!

Uefa cup Wednesday

2009-02-17T21:05:00.002Z

Aston Villa V CSKA Moscow

Despite their FA Cup exit to Everton on Sunday there is no doubt that behind Manchester United, Aston Villa are the form team in the premiership just now. Villa are currently in third place, seven points clear of fifth-placed Arsenal and they have great chance to qualify for the Champions League.
To know just how serious they are taking the Uefa cup is anyone’s guess but Martin O Neill is not a man to lie down and ignore any potential success. He has promised to name a strong 11 for this clash though he will have to do without Steve Sidwell who’s suspended and Emile Heskey who is out through injury. On the plus side Gareth Barry is back in to the squad and he is a central cog whose absence was missed against Everton. Curtis Davies is also back and he is likely to slot in at centre back.
CSKA come into this in the worst possible circumstances not having played competitively since December 4th. No amount of friendly games can make up for 10 weeks of non-competitive football and it may take a while for them to catch up to the pace of the game. Admittedly they come into the knockout stages with a 100% record and have a good pedigree in this tournament having won in 2005. They have a new man in charge with Brazilian legend Zico taking over the reigns during the winter break. He has a few problems with Anton Grigoriev and Deividas Semberas suspended and new signing Tomas Necid is ineligible. Vagnor Love is the leading scorer in this season’s UEFA Cup with eight goals to his name already. He’s been linked with a move to England several times and will be keen to impress. He is the main threat and if Villa can keep him out them they will be halfway through to victory. A potential quarter-final tie with either Tottenham Hotspur or Shakhtar Donetsk awaits the winners and both sides would be confident of beating these teams.

Verdict
The winter break is not the best preparation for CSKA but that aside, Villa will not want to head to a cold plastic pitch in Russia with a lot to do. If they are serious about progressing to the next round then they will have to carry a lead to Russia. All the best teams in England have struggled against Villa and when they are in the right frame of mind they are capable of beating anyone. They have the match practice which should give them the critical edge.

PICK
Aston Villa (2.05 @ unibet) 5 points

Six Nations on Sunday

2009-02-15T10:24:00.001Z

Italy V Ireland

Ireland finally put in a good performance last weekend, now the big question is if they can start on Sunday where they finished against the French. The overall play last weekend was good from Ireland and they were creative going forward and put in some big tackles along the way. They were by no means unbeatable but I liked the attitude that they showed, especially when they went behind. The problem with Ireland is that they so often follow up a good performance with a poor display and im a little worried about complacency, which has also been a problem in the past. Italy let me down last week, every year we seem to say, maybe this is the year they will make the breakthrough and start giving the top teams a proper test. Going into last week’s game against the English I felt that Italy’s hard graft and heavy hitting could put England off their game. However Bergamasco had an absolute howler and Italy did their best to hand away as much easy possession as possible. Paul Griffen comes in after a 16-month absence to replace Bergamasco at nine. Mallett has also made 4 more changes with McLean coming in at number 10 for the injured Marcato. Lock Tommaso Reato will replace Marco Bortolami, who has failed to recover from a knee injury picked up at Twickenham whilst Pratichetti has been included in the starting line out.
I have been mulling over this game for ages and was not so sure as to which is the best pick to take. I believe Ireland can cover the handicap but they are such a mixed bag to predict. At least with Kidney in charge they won’t be as boring and predictable. Ladbrokes are offering 1.73 for O Gara to score 12 points or more and that to me is the best of the picks I could find. If Ireland do play well then he should get plenty of shots at the post. If Italy are any way ill disciplined then he should also get plenty of chances to kick 3 pointers, this could be a tactical battle where kicking will be crucial so im going with O Gara to kick plenty of scores and put himself in the frame for man of the match.
He’s done it so many times before for club and country that ive lost count.

PICK
O Gara to score 12 points or more (1.73 @ ladbrokes) 5 points
O Gara man of the match ( 7 @ paddy power) 2 points

Fa Cup

2009-02-15T10:03:00.002Z

Everton V Aston Villa

At first glance I though this might be a good time for Everton to put Villa out of the cup. Surely with Villa desperate for the top 4 and a champions league spot the FA cup will be second choice. Not with a manager like Martin O Neill in charge though. Villa have looked excellent at times this year and on the road have a remarkable 10 – 0 – 3 record in the premiership. Agbonlahor and Ashley Young are having great seasons and will provide the brunt of the attacking threat. Gareth Barry is out which puts me off backing them as they need his leadership if the going gets tough.
The reason I though Everton could win was because of their new found strike man Jo. That was until I realised he was cup tied and with Saha out injured (surprise surprise) James Vaughan and Yakubu are also out which leaves Everton very bare up front for attacking options. Everton are 11 points behind the visitors today but both are having good seasons and both will be playing in Europe next season. David Moyes has done a wonderful job with such limited funds and has proved that you don’t need the best players as long as you get the work rate and tactics right. On that level Martin O Neill has also done a great job at Villa and a champions league spot would cement his popularity at Villa Park

Verdict
Both are missing some influential players and it’s hard to see where Everton goals will come from. On saying that Villa’s greatest strength is their attacking style but Everton can be tough to break down.
I can’t see past the draw here.

PICK
Draw (3.3 @ betfred) 4 points

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Derby V Manchester United

Not many teams have defeated Man Utd this season but Derby are one of the few who have managed that feat winning 1 – 0 in the carling cup some few weeks ago. It will be a big ask to see lightening strike twice though especially considering United’s recent run of form and defensive displays.
In the return leg of that carling cup tie Derby again made a nuisance of themselves before eventually going down 4 – 2. With those type of gritty, fighting displays there is no chance that Alex Ferguson will be taking them lightly today. Nigel Clough has pulled them out of the relegation places though the season is far from over they have looked much better in recent weeks.
Fergie is still on for an ambitious quadruple of titles this year and with them already in the carling cup and within touching distance of the premiership trophy it would be brave to bet against them doing so.
Van Der Sar has been keeping clean sheets by the bucketload although it could be said that United have been grinding out results as opposed to great attacking play.

Verdict
There will be no complacency from United today and even if Fergie mixes youth with experience they should still be good enough. Lessons have been learnt from the previous games and there will be no slip-ups today. United to win 2 or 3 nil.

PICK
Man United – 1.25 (1.91 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Football for Saturday

2009-02-13T23:25:00.002Z

Burnley V Wolves

This game should prove to be a cracker as Wolves seek to stop the rot and Burnley are also trying to get their home form back on track. Burnley are sitting in 10th and just three points off the top-six, ready to pounce and what better way to do it then against the pacesetters Wolves. Northern Ireland forward Martin Paterson is the Clarets’ attacking threat with 17 goals in all competitions, while the creativity of Robbie Blake and Chris Eagles are vital to Burnleys attack.
Wolves on the other hand have Lethal front two Sylvan Ebanks-Blake and Chris Iwelumo who have 33 goals between them.
This fixture scream goals to me as Wolves are a mixed boat at the moment, they have signed Berra from Hearts in order to steady the ship but still look open at the back. They have countered this by just outscoring their opponents which has worked well but only against certain teams. I cant see it working against Burnley because the hosts are also more than capable of scoring.
Two attacking team and we should see plenty of goals.

PICK
Over 3.5 goals (3 @ sporting bet) 5 points

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Swansea V Fulham

Im surprised at the odds here, ok so it’s a premiership team against a championship team but this is the Fa cup and Swansea have already accounted for premiership opposition this year beating Portsmouth. So Pompey are no great shakes but beating the reigning cup holders will have done lots for their confidence. Added to that Swansea have an excellent home record and are 15 games unbeaten in the championship.
Fulham are going well this year but have struggled to score goals. They have been helped by some excellent defensive display though saving the blushes of the forwards. Sitting in 10th has probably exceeded most fans expectations but the premiership still remains the priority. Despite winning twice away in the cup so far Fulham remain a very average outfit on the road and a high flying Swansea side should be able to beat them at home where they always look threatening.

Pick
Swansea win (2.63 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Six Nations

2009-02-13T22:46:00.001Z

France V Scotland

I was waiting and waiting all week to see the lines that the bookies would show for this. They were very slow to be the first to put out prices or set the lines for the total points and total tries but bet 365 were first to take the plunge!
France were unlucky to go down in Ireland last week, they played some good open rugby, a little ill disciplined at times but nonetheless some good open play and scored some nice tries.
Both teams have made changes and the French have brought lock Romain Millo-Chluski and props Fabien Barcella and Nicolas Mas into their pack with the one change in the backs sees winger Heymans come in for Malzieu. The introduction of Heymans is good for my bet of total tries because he is a good runner and adds a good creative edge to the side. I like watching the French play, they combine a good tough scrum with hard hitting but have a lot of pace and flair on the wings and their games are usually very open and easy on the eye. Having lost one game already its vital that they win each of the remaining games and I have a funny feeling that points total might yet come into play for the winners so France will be pushing right to the end.
Scotland were a huge disappointment last weekend. The heart and passion was missing and I had hoped that they would give the Welsh a decent game and even cause an upset but right from the get go they looked in danger, in fact every time Wales went forward they looked like scoring. Scotland attacked at times but lacked the killer punch at the business end and this cost them big time. They looked a lot sharper in the final 10 – 15 minutes but this was only because Wales had introduced a few replacements and had been reduced to 14 men. Gregor Townsend has spoke this week about how the Scottish have had a good record this season regarding Scottish clubs going to France but I think he’s only trying to give his players some confidence which wont be enough methinks!
Frank Hadden has made five changes, bringing back brothers Thom and Max Evans. Thom replaces the injured Simon Webster while Max is in for Ben Cairns. The other changes see Sean Lamont make way for Simon Danielli on the other wing, Strokosch for Ally Hogg in the back row and Alasdair Dickinson comes in for fellow prop Geoff Cross.

Verdict
Both sides are coming off defeats and both have points to prove but the French are definitely the stronger team and have all the advantages. What do Scotland do? Should they take on the French at their own game and run the ball or play a possession game and rely on Patterson to gain the hard yards? Neither will work for them im afraid and their best chance is to keep the score respectable. They just don’t have the creative edge needed. France can create something out of nothing and should win this by some 18 +

PICK
France to score over 3.5 tries ( 2.2 @ paddy power) 5 points

Cedric Heymans anytime tryscorer ( 3 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Wales V England

The big news here is that Shane Williams is out wit injury but I get the feeling this might pan out better for the Welsh than the English, simply because much is being made of his absence in the media and very often players can up their performance when one of their star players is missing. Wales could have beaten Scotland by 20 + points with ease last weekend but took their foot off the pedal when the game was out of reach in the closing quarter. There will be no easing off tomorrow though you can be sure if they are in the position to do so! For the record, Mark Jones has stepped in for the injured Williams. The most interesting part of this game will be how Wales cope with the pressure of being overwhelming favourites against their old foe. Not too many times in the past have Wales been installed as 10 point favourites and only time will tell if they survive under the weight of expectation.
England were effectively handed the game last weekend as error after error from the Italians handed them easy possession and they didn’t have to dig too deep to win. Martin Johnson may have been a fine player for England but he’s finding out now that being a good player doesn’t matter in this case as the media are sharpening their knifes for him. He has made several changes for this clash with Joe Worsley has been recalled in place of Steffon Armitage, Tindall has been brought back in after missing last weeks game with a back injury whilst Ben Foden and Jamie Noon have been dropped from the panel.

Verdict
Most are predicting an easy Welsh win but its not so clear cut for me. England are still a bit of an unknown force as last weeks game didn’t show too much, if any of what they have to offer. One things for sure and that is that they wont want to be humiliated at the Millennium stadium. The pressure is more on the hosts and teams in the same position as England are now can often produce shocks. Wales to win but closer than people expect.

PICK
Wales by 12 or less (2.87 @ bet365) 4 points

Losing bets

2009-02-11T19:58:00.002Z

Well we were just 46 seconds into the Irish game before a defensive error wiped out my two bets! Bugger that anyway. Next write ups should be up tomorrow or friday night with 3 full previews on the six nations games and a look at the weekend football action. Until then good luck!

Ireland V Georgia

2009-02-10T23:27:00.001Z

Ireland V Georgia

If theres one thing for sure about this game its this, it won’t be pretty and it will most likely be a dull affair. A win for Ireland will put them level on points on top of the group and in perfect position when they take on Italy in the next round. Giovanni Trapattoni has done well so far but is not the type of manager to install an attacking style of play to his sides. Irelands play so far has been based on a defensive style and they were lucky to have got a 2 –1 in the reverse fixture. Lucky because of trouble in Georgia at the time the game was played thousands of kilometres from their home stadium in Tbilisi in Germany. Regarding team news Paul Mcshane is the only doubt but this may be a blessing in disguise as he is a liability in the Irish defence. Shay Given will have taken huge confidence from his debut for Man City at the weekend. The defence looks to be in good order as Kilbane and Dunne are always dependable and theres a nice balance of creativity and hard graft in the middle of the field. Up front Keane will be in the spotlight and ready to impress. Doyle was named as Irish player of the year for 2008 last Sunday and he never disappoints in the green jersey.
Probable line up
Given - Kelly, Kilbane, Dunne, O'Shea - Whelan, Andrews, McGeady, Duff - Doyle, Keane
Georgia have been a tough side to break down and were unlucky to give up home advantage to the Irish in a 2 – 1 defeat. Hector Cuper is facing a huge task on Wednesday as he is without Levan Mchedlidze and Levan Kenia, two of his most promising attackers but Kakha Kaladze has recently recovered from injury and is ready to take his place in the line-up. The defeat to Ireland was followed by another to Italy and a pair of draws to Cyprus and Bulgaria. They are more than a capable outfit though and are well organised and pushed Italy all the way. Khizanishvili and Kakha Kaladze are two of their more recognisable names and Georgia will need good games from these two experienced players to have any chance of success.

Verdict
Im not thrilled by the odds on the home win though im very confident we will pick up the 3 points. Irelands defence looks solid enough and with Georgia missing their attacking threat im expecting a clean sheet from Ireland and a one or two nil win.

PICK
Ireland to win 1 – 0 (6.5 @ bet365) 2 points
Ireland to win 2 – 0 (6 @ bet365) 2 points

Saturday Picks

2009-02-06T22:13:00.002Z

Unfortunatley my internet is still down so i only have a few brief moments to get my picks up before im cut off once again.

Football
Sunderland (1.83 @ betfred) 5 points

Man City - 1 (2.1 @ bet365) 6 points

HT Draw / FT Chelsea ( 5 @ betfred) 3 points

Rugby
Ireland to win by 1 - 12 points (2.75 @ bet365) 5 points
England to win by 1 - 12 points (3.1 @ bet365) 3 points

Sorry its so brief, especially the rugby as i had so much planned for the weekend but it will have to do. Good luck!

Bad weather

2009-02-03T11:48:00.002Z

Unfortunately due to the bad weather my internet connection is down at the moment so i have no previews done for tonights games. As regards the games tonight i quite fance Burnley to knock West Brom out of the FA Cup and Wolves to take another 3 points in the championship against Norwich. Untill i get my connection up and running effectively again i wont be able to do any previews. The bad weather is playing havoc with things at the moment so best keep stakes small if you decide to have a play tonight.
Good luck!

Tonights GAA action

2009-01-31T17:25:00.002Z

The 125th anniversary of the GAA is being celebrated tonight with a fireworks display reportedly in the €500,000 mark. This will kick off the action before Dublin and Tyrone at a sold out Croke Park. As its the first round il be leaving it go from a betting perspective as i may do tomorrow also. Players are just back from a long break, some have had club action to keep them ticking over and some have not so its hard to know just yet where some players are at fitness wise. It can take a round or two to focus some teams so for me tonight no bet.
On saying that, i wouldnt put anyone off backing Tyrone, Dublin are experimenting with a new look full back line which could very easily backfire on them. Should be a good open game and im looking forward to it.

Saturday's bets

2009-01-31T10:41:00.004Z

Football first but il be back with a look at the GAA action on offer tonight

Aston Villa V Wigan

Emile Heskey didn’t have to wait too long before having to face his old employers and teammates at Wigan. Heskey made an immediate impact scoring on his debut and his strength and ability may be just what Villa need to stay in the top 4. I like the look of the odds on him to score at anytime today. He’s upfront with Agbonlahor and there are bound to be plenty of chances for him. Agbonlahor has a very good strike rate against the Latics having scored 3 times in the last 4 games against them which throws me off taking Heskey to score first. It’s hard to predict the games itself as Villa could be accused of having a lot of luck in their recent good run. They were lucky to hold on to the 3 points against Pompey midweek and haven’t really given a complete performance yet.
Wigan could also have snatched 3 points from Liverpool midweek but in my mind this was down to the negative approach from Rafa Benitez. Trying to hold onto a 1 - 0 lead is risky business and Wigan fully deserved their point.

Verdict
This should be a decent games with plenty of chances and who knows better the strengths and weaknesses of the Wigan defence than Heskey. There is always an air of inevitability about a player scoring against his former club and as Bellamy proved against Newcastle on Wednesday it happens quite a lot.

PICK
Heskey anytime scorer ( 3 @ skybet) 4 points

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Manchester United V Everton

I have two picks for this game at long odds that I have thought to be “value” and worth a shot.
First of all, Man Utd have not conceded in 1,032 minutes in the premiership, which is a remarkable achievement. United tend to outplay their opposition from time to time and it there are times when Van Der Sar does not have to do much for large periods of the game. Keeping your concentration is a hard thing to do in games like this and this makes the record all the more amazing. United have looked like regaining the premiership for a long time now and it will take a special effort from the Toffees if they are to pull something from this game. However they are in good form themselves and outplayed Arsenal for long periods of the game on Wednesday night before a late goal from Van Persie shared the points. Two consecutive draws with Liverpool preceded the Arsenal game in which they also played ok.
Manchester have not looked like dropping points in a while but could find it tough today provided that Everton are up for the challenge. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to See Uniteds clean sheet record beaten today and im hoping that Everton can score first and make a game of it as Spurs did last week in the FA cup.

Verdict
As I said I think Everton can be stiff opposition and can make it tough for United. Two picks I see in with a great shout are United to come from behind to win the game, as they did last week. The other is for it to be a draw at HT and United to win at FT which is also a huge possibility if Everton come to Old Trafford to defend as teams often do.
Big odds, small stakes

PICK

Man Utd to come from behind and win (11 @ paddy power) 1 point

Draw HT – Man Utd FT (4.5 @ ladbrokes) 4 points

Wednesday night

2009-01-27T23:54:00.003Z

Ouch, tough night with just the one winner. Pompey kicked away enough chances to win the game never mind draw and Spurs finally clicked, for 45 mins at least.

Manchester City V Newcastle United

You do get the feeling that Man City are due a change in fortune at some stage and it could finally come against a poor travelling Newcastle side on Wednesday. They have been fairly erratic but are capable of decent performances especially at Eastlands where they seem a little more comfortable. The recent signing of Craig Bellamy and Nigel De Jong are big addition’s to the squad and should stabilize things a bit. With all their money there has been plenty of action in the transfer market with a ridiculous amount reportedly offered to Kaka which he refused. Also to add a little spice to this encounter they are supposedly very close to getting the signature of Shay Given. Robinho also has a big point to prove to the fans after going AWOL in Tenerife.
Newcastle are struggling and Kinnear’s honeymoon period is long over. They have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 games and were humiliated 3 – 0 at Blackburn on their last away trip. Apart from Joey Barton and Jose Enrique’s on field argument during the Blackburn match, it is reported that there have been some training ground incidents also which has done little for morale. Sitting 2 points above relegation is a dodgy spot to be and there is pressure on players and staff to start collecting some points.

Verdict
It’s only a matter of time before Man City click and their two new signings could prove to be the inspiration behind a win. Newcastle are unpredictable but I don’t see them causing an upset here.

Pick

Man City – 1 (2.31 @ bet365) 5 points

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Chelsea V Middlesborough

My first thoughts were Chelsea to win this very easy but on reflection im not so sure. Chelsea’s home form has not been so hot and their confidence looks shot since Liverpool broke their unbeaten record. They were very close to being humiliated by lowly Stoke last time out before two very late Lampard goals stole the points for them. 3 points are critical after Man Utd's show at West Brom and Chelsea need to keep up the pace.
It seems like forever since Middlesborough won a game (fa cup aside) and they have now lost 4 on the trot away from home. However, they are a notoriously tricky team to call and ive lost plenty backing and opposing them in the past. They seem to save their best for the big teams and I don’t see Wednesday being any different. Downing is key to them and if his crosses are on target then they could test a Chelsea defence that look shaky at times.

Verdict
Chelsea have been level at the break in their last three games and Boro will come with a defensive attitude. With that in mind it may be worth chancing that Boro will hold Chelsea out until the 2nd half.

Pick
Draw HT/ Chelsea FT (5 @ VC) 5 points

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Blackburn V Bolton

Big Sam returns to his old club and this another game that screams out a low scoring dull affair. Allardyce has introduced some stability and is unbeaten as of yet and faces a Bolton side that has slumped a little recently.
Blackburn have won 3 and drawn 3 since Ince left the club and while they are still bottom they have improved their chances of survival considerably.
Bolton have lost 8 of the last 9 in all competitions but on closer inspection have had to face Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa in that sequence which is a nightmare run of fixtures.

Verdict
This is a derby game so anything can happen but Bolton will be glad to have some very tough games out of the way. This will be tough, uncompromising and we probably wont see too many goals but I fancy Bolton to battle their way to a draw. Kevin Nolan is back from suspension and he will be key.
0 – 0 or 1 – 1 id say

PICK

Draw (3.34 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Tuesday night

2009-01-27T01:23:00.008Z

West Brom V Manchester United

Its fairly hard to argue with the odds on the away win here as it is top versus bottom and United are in top form.
On that basis its better to look elsewhere for a bit of value and I like the 4.6 about it being a draw at half time before United pull away to win by full time. Manchester United’s last 5 away games have been close affairs and there has only 3 goals in just over 45of minutes of play.
West Brom would be more than happy to take the point and they will probably set out to defend from the start. This is risky business though especially against a team like United that can cut open defences at ease. Their form has picked up a little in recent times and they will be well up for this one coming off a 3 – 0 win against Boro last time out.
United are full of injuries at the moment and it looks as if Fletcher may be used at right back which is hardly ideal. # R. Ferdinand
Hargreaves, W. Brown, Evra, Rooney, Anderson, Evans, Welbeck and Da Silva are all out. They will also need a much better display and attitude from Ronaldo.

Verdict
United may be well short on numbers but its still hard to see them not picking up the 3 points. Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Ronaldo is a formidable midfield and they should provide plenty of chances for Berbatov and Tevez. West Brom should make this interesting but I can’t see them holding United out for the full 90

Pick
Draw HT/ Man United FT 4.6 @ canbet ( 4 points)

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Sunderland V Fulham

Sometimes you just see a fixture that screams out 0 - 0 to you and this is one of them. My brother had the misfortune of getting a free ticket to the reverse fixture at Craven cottage and he was so bored that he left shortly after half time. Ricky Sbragia has been pretty quiet on the transfer front though Chimbonda has returned to Spurs. Sbragia will also be hoping that striker Kenwyne Jones does not head for the exit also.
Fulham have lost Jimmy Bullard to Hull, a strange move as he was an important player to them but for a fee they couldn’t afford to turn down. Traditionally, Fulham are very strong at home, and rarely win on their travels, this year has been much of the same though they have taken 5 draws, most notably at Liverpool and Villa.
I could blag my way through a long preview here but I wont. I don’t think either have enough creativity to create too many chances. Fulham tend to play defensively and be happy for a point on the road and tomorrow should be no different. If this game is scoreless approaching the 60 minute mark then both teams will be more than happy to settle for the draw as Sunderland especially need some points on the board. 0 – 0 for me or else the odd goal to settle it.

PICK
Sunderland V Fulham under 1.5 goals ( 2.9 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Tottenham V Stoke

Interestingly nobody is giving the visitors a chance here despite the fact that they were only a few minutes away from winning at Stamford bridge just 2 weeks ago. Lets look at the facts first, these two teams are level on points, Spurs have only won once in their last 5 games at the lane (a 1 – 0 win over Blackburn way back in November) and have only scored twice in those five games, Hardly the home record to strike fear into the opposition.
Stoke’s record is not too inspiring either to be honest having lost 4 of the last 5 away. However their recent attitude has been spot on and they will take heart from their display at Chelsea where they deserved a point at the very least. Spurs have had a lot of game time recently and injury problems and Cudicini could be thrown straight into goal for his debut.

Verdict
Tottenham have not done enough for me to recommend to anyone backing them at circa 1.6 so il be siding with the visitors. While results haven’t been too hot for Stoke they seem to be at least operating as a unit which is more than can be said for the home side here. Stoke draw no bet

PICK
Stoke draw no bet ( 4.5 @ paddy power) 3 points

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Portsmouth v Aston Villa

Can it get any worse for Pompey? Dumped out of the FA cup to Swansea and confidence seems to be at an all time low. Villa on the other hand remain in the top four and have been in top form and are unbeaten in the league since November 9th. Home and away they have looked good and they will be quietly confident of taking 3 points at Fratton Park.
Both sides have been involved in the transfer window as Pompey have lost Diarra to Real Madrid, Defoe to Spurs and signed Mullins and Pele also taking Pennant on loan. Villa seem to be under pressure to hold onto Ashley Young while they have picked up Emile Heskey from Wigan.
To my mind this game is sh*t or bust for Tony Adams and he will be looking for a response from his players, they have only taken two points from the last 18 on offer and are heading for trouble if they don’t start picking up points.

Verdict
Aston Villa are a little too short for my liking and have relied on a little luck in their recent games. That luck has to run out eventually and Pompeys has to improve. On a cold damp night in the South I think both will cancel each other out and will have to settle for a point each.

Portsmouth /Aston Villa draw (3.45 @ pinnacle) 4 points

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Hereford V Millwall

Hereford may be 2 places from bottom but have shown recent signs of improvement and have a great chance to take 3 points against Millwall on Tuesday. They put 5 past 3rd placed Oldham in their last home outing and Oldham are a dam good team. Steve Guinan has nine goals in his last 11 matches and they will look to him to get them out of trouble at the foot of the table. Millwall suffered a 2 – 0 defeat to Hull at the weekend which ended their FA Cup dreams for another year. They are in the playoff spots at the moment but automatic promotion is still very much within their grasp. This is a game that will test their credentials, as a long trip to Hereford on a Tuesday evening is no soft touch. Millwall do their best work at home where they have the second best record in the league and their away form is erratic.
Hereford to follow up on their excellent win against Oldham. Draw no bet in case of a draw

Pick
Hereford draw no bet ( 2.25@ bet365) 5 points

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Barnet V Shrewsbury

My final pick for Tuesdays games. Barnet’s displays have improved with their managerial change at Christmas and they look good to cause a slight shock with a win over Shrewsbury. They have looked a lot more composed at the back recently and are not shipping as many soft goals as they did previously. Despite going down to 10 men in their last two games they have still managed to draw both games and if they can keep 11 players on the field then they have a great chance against a Shrewsbury side that has not won an away game in 5 months! That’s a long time to go without winning and that kind of thing plays on the mind of players, especially the longer it goes on. The goals have dried up for the visitors too and this looks like a sure fire unders game but il stick with the nice odds on the Barnet win, draw no bet for me though as im playing it a bit conservatively!

PICK
Barnet draw no bet (2.3 @ VC) 5 points

Im back!

2009-01-25T18:18:00.002Z

After a much needed break im back and feeling good. My internet service was changed in my absense so i had to wait a few days for full service to resume. I missed out on this weekend's betting which didnt bother me too much as i had very little fancies anyway. There plenty of football games to chose from midweek and the Gaa season kicks off next weekend which i always look forward to.
Il try to have a few bits up tomorrow night for Tuesdays games so check back if you wish.
Cheers!

Some down time

2009-01-04T13:18:00.004Z

Luckily for me i will be jet setting around the world tomorrow so i probably wont be online all that much in the next 2 weeks or so. Im heading for the Carribean so im not sure what restrictions there are on gambling websites out there. Nevertheless il try to get online if possible if something catches my eye.

Good Luck

Boxing day soccer

2008-12-26T11:25:00.004Z

Liverpool V Bolton

I can’t believe the odds on offer here. Sure, Bolton may not be many peoples pick to win this one but Liverpool at odds of 1.3 – 1.4 are not to be taken in my opinion. Bolton are only in 9th position and have got 4 wins away from home, admittedly none were against top opposition but Liverpool at home are not the dominant force they once were and I can only presume that Liverpool have been heavily backed due to the return of Torres. Liverpool haven’t won in 3 at Anfield and they were games against Hull, West Ham and Fulham. Bolton are a much better opposition than all 3 of them and il be having a bit of the 12 available on the visitors. Bolton are not goal shy on the road and have scored 9 times in the last 3 games, Elmander looks a real threat and with Davies and Gardner to back him up there is always a real threat when they go forward.

Verdict
Apologies about the shortness but Liverpool have not done enough for me to even consider backing at these odds. Bolton are a tough organised team and have been creating lots of goal scoring chances lately. The so called big teams always struggle to play against them so its Bolton to snatch a draw for me with a tickle on them grabbing all three points

PICK
Bolton win ( 12 @ skybet) 2 points

Draw ( 4.5 @ bet365) 4 points

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Unfortunately yesterday i had too much beer so previews are at a minimum today.
Instead il just list the picks im taking instead

Manchester City V Hull City over 2.5 goals (1.83 @ betdirect) 5 points
Hull win (5 @ skybet) 2 points

Aston Villa V Arsenal - Draw ( 3.4 @ boylesports) 4 points

Burnley -1 (2.12 @ canbet) 5 points

Happy Holidays

2008-12-24T22:35:00.002Z

I know not everyone celebrates Christmas but for those of you that do, have a nice few days off and make the most of it.
I have some notes ready for the English programme on Friday, just to throw them together so hopefully i will have some picks up early the day after tomorrow.

Happy holidays!

Sunday Picks

2008-12-21T10:53:00.004Z

Arsenal V Liverpool

You just don’t know what to expect from Arsenal at all this season. They seem to keep their best for the big games and have fallen flat on their faces against some of the lesser teams. Nevertheless this is a game that’s suite perfectly for them and their preparations have gone just right. Ok so there are still a few casualties but Van Persie and Adebayor will lead the line and this is where they might have the advantage over Liverpool. Liverpool’s attack has been a cause of great debate in recent times and it has been strongly rumoured that Robbie Keane could be on his way out in the January transfer window. Whether that will happen or not there is one thing for sure and that is that Liverpool really need Torres fit and he is out today.
Kuyt is a workhorse and has chipped in with a few goals so far but is not really a player to grab the game by the scruff of the neck which is what Liverpool need today. Instead they will need Steven Gerrard to be on his best form.
Theres a lot of factors to consider in this game and for Arsenal one of them is revenge. Some are still hurting after a dramatic exit in the champions league quarter final last April and there has been a few jibes from the Arsenal camp this week about Babel taking a dive and Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor have both suggested this is the game to exact some revenge.
Arsenal, as I said have been fairly erratic at home with 2 defeats to Hull and Aston Villa. From the outside it looks that complacency is the problem as they don’t look up for it at times and only play their best against the best teams.
Liverpool have been impressive away from home with 6 wins and the only defeat was when they were unlucky to go down 2 – 1 at White Hart Lane. Torres is their main absentee.

Verdict
Should be a tight cagey affair here and there wont be much between the teams. Arsenal are eager to win this one but they might have to be happy with a point. Liverpool will look to attack at every chance but much will depend on Steven Gerrard and whether or not he can make some use of his long distance shooting. On the whole I cant see Liverpool taking the three points but think that they will do enough to frustrate the gunners. Not a huge fan of backing the draw but this has 1 – 1 written all over it.

PICK
Draw ( 3.3 @ pinnacle) 3 points

Correct score 1 - 1 ( 7 @ canbet) 1 point

Hows this for cheek?
Adebayor to score first and the game to finish 1 - 1! (31 @ bet365 and i just cant resist having a unit on it)

Saturday picks

2008-12-20T12:11:00.004Z

Hull V Sunderland

Interesting game this. Two weeks ago id have jumped at the odds on a Hull win but now im not so sure. Im still not convinced that Sunderland are that good but in last weeks 4 – 0 win against West Brom they at least showed that they are capable of putting a good performance together from time to time. It was inevitable that there would be an improved performance after the departure of Roy Keane as teams always but o don’t think many saw the 4 – 0 coming.
Hull are just outside the European spots approaching the halfway mark and this is a remarkable achievement for them. They have impressed playing against all the big teams and havent looked out of their dept apart from a 3 – 0 defeat to Chelsea and a blip against Wigan. This will be Phil Brown’s 100th game in charge of Hull and how they must be eager to please him as he has done a terrific job with them.
In general Hull have adopted an attacking attitude which has been pleasing to watch as they like to get forward and score goals, At home though they have only kept the one clean sheet, a with Sunderland goal hungry at the moment I would expect another few conceded today.
Sunderland are in the bottom 3 and games like todays are crucial so I would be expecting a hugely committed performance from them today.

Verdict
Too hard to predict as I think both are capable of doing anything on the day. Hull seem to save their best performances for the big guns and Sunderland players are playing for their future at the club. We should see a few goals in this one and I might have a few small bob on the 2 – 2 scoreline too.

PICK
Over 2.5 goals ( 2.05 @ pinnacle) 5 points

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Blackburn V Stoke

One of my only rules when it comes to gambling is the new manager rule. Never ever back against a team that has just lost their manager, no matter how big or small the club is, and no matter who the opposition.
We saw it last week where Sunderland were transformed and have also seen it recently with Redknapp’s appointment at Tottenham.
However long the honeymoon period lasts for is another question but for now, expect a hugely improved attitude and performance from Blackburn.
After losing the last six League games in a row and falling to 19th in the table, five points from safety and 11 games without a win, its crisis time at Ewood park. Sam Allardyce is the right man for the job though as he has a knack of getting the best out of a limited squad, as he showed at Bolton. One home win is a damming stat and one he will be keen to improve that, starting today.
Stoke will be no pushovers but with Delap not 100% fit they will miss his long throw ins. Tony Pulis will hand fitness tests to five players ahead of this game. Rory Delap ,Andy Griffin,Salif Diao,Leon Cort and Dave Kitson, who is close to returning from a knee injury, will all take late tests before Pulis decides on his final selection.
Pulis will be happy with the way things have gone so far but a defeat today and they will be close to the drop spots. They are a bit of a mixed bag but have generally disappointed on the road with 5 defeats and failed to score in 3 of the last 4.

Verdict
New manager means improved display as players will try to play their way into the new mans plans. I firmly believe that Blackburn are a top 10 team and just need fresh face and some new ideas to inspire them.
Home win

PICK
Home win (1.9 @ betsense) 5 points

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League one

Cheltenham V Walsall

At first glance you might think im mad here but ive been doing a bit of research and it appears that the visitors are having a bit of a crisis at the moment. They are missing some key players and there have been reports of a virus in the camp midweek to stretch their squad to the max.
Cheltenham may be in the bottom 4 but have improve their performances of late winning the last 3 including a morale boosting win over Leyton Orient last weekend. They are a tough side to break down and Martin Allen could prove to be a shrewd boss.

Verdict
This is one of my shortest previews but based on what ive been reading it would be a crime not to have a few bob on the home win. They have improved lately and would be a great bet but in the circumstances they are an even better shout.

PICK
Cheltenham win ( 2.4 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Cheltenham win 2 – 0 ( 13 @ skybet) 2 points
Cheltenham win 3 – 0 ( 26 @ skybet) 1 point
Cheltenham win 4 – 0 ( 81 @ bet365) 1 point

Saturday's football

2008-12-13T11:52:00.002Z

Wolves V Barsnley

At the risk or repeating myself I find myself once again backing Wolves at home. Its simple really, they have looked a class apart when facing the lesser opposition and their problem area of goals has been cleared up this season. Iwelumo and Ebanks-Blake are sticking them in for fun and at the moment the only thing that I can see getting in their way is complacency. A defeat last week to Qpr might have been a blessing in disguise though to keep them focused and they look very very comfortable at home where they have collected 28 points from a possible 33. Wolves also have had the benefit of resting players recently showing their strength in dept.
Barnsley are one of those sides that will be happy with mid table this year. Their away form has seen them lose 7 times and their squad is hit with injuries. 17 players were declared fit for their midweek trip to Swansea. On saying that, they were unlucky to come away from Swansea without the 3 points after conceding a 94th minute goal to tie things up at 2 – 2.

Verdict
Barnsley’s midweek effort at Swansea will have alerted Mick McCarthy’s men and there will be no complacency from them today. The manner in which Barnsley threw away the 3 points was disheartening and it might be a long tough afternoon for them.

PICK
Wolves –1 ( 1.74 @ ladbrokes) 5 points
Wolves win 2 – 0 (7 @ladbrokes) 1 point
Wolves win 3 – 0 (10 @ladbrokes) 1 point

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Reading v Norwich

Like Wolves, Reading are one of those sides that always look the business at home in the championship, and once again I find myself backing them to win today. They are putting goals away for fun and look set for a quick return to the premiership where lets face it, they deserve to be.
Keeper Marcus Hahnemann picked up a knock midweek and looks set to miss but I don’t think his absence will be critical. Reading strolled to a 1 – 0 win over Blackpool on Tuesday night, an Ingimarsson goal enough to separate the sides but in truth it was never in doubt as Reading played against 10 men a long time. They even had the luxury of missing a penalty when Hunts shot was saved by Paul Rachubka.
That win made it 9 wins from 11 at home and they look set to extend that with victory today.
Norwich face another tough away assignment after being leapfrogged by Waterford in their 2 – 1 defeat to the same club on Tuesday night. Goals have been an issue and Glen Roeder has signed injury-prone striker Carl Cort until the end of the season though the jury is out on that one.
Norwich have only kept a clean sheet once this season on the road and that was way back in September.

Verdict
It should be another routine 3 points for the home side here and anything but would be a shock as they bid to overtake Wolves. Home points are critical over the xmas period.

PICK

Reading – 1 (1.72 @ ladbrokes) 5 points

Heineken Cup Saturday

2008-12-13T11:02:00.003Z

Munster V Clermont Auvergne

This is a huge game for both sides and could be potentially classed as a make or break game. Last weeks win for Clermont has really stirred things up and made things interesting. As defending champions Munster have not reached the heights that they are capable of getting to and should know by now that every team wants to beat the best so they can expect no easy ride They have struggled to get any rhythm going and as usual a lot today will hinge on O Gara and his boot. Clermont’s 6 point win last week was a surprise to some but in reality they have some excellent players and at odds of 26 outright could give you a good run for your money.
Their biggest disadvantage is that there are doubts about their fitness levels as they were visibly tiring towards the end of last week’s class. Hooker Ledesma has been resigned to the bench and it is likely that he will be used as an impact sub in the course of the final 20 minutes when his teammates might need a boost. They are tough in the tackle and at times brushed some of the Munster player’s aside and were able to register some easy scores.
Munster always seem to need a bit of danger in their play. It’s at this stage every season that they look like a spent force and almost always stick in a poor performance along the way. But they always seem to bounce back and they will be glad to be back at Thomand Park where they look most comfortable. With only a losing bonus point from last week’s encounter another defeat is unthinkable and the crowd will need to get behind them from the very start.
Clermonts strengths are similar to Munster in that they hold on to possession and look to stretch the opposition and Brock James will be crucial. One poor kick and the crowd will be on his back and he could be in for a tough afternoon. As I said O Gara needs to have his kicking boots on and O Callaghan and O Connell will be crucial in the lineout.

Verdict
I see this being very tight but I think Munster’s experience and that remarkable home record will see them through but only just by a few. Theres a couple of hours to kick off yet but it is pelting rain outside and this could be a low scoring tie settled by a few points

PICK
Munster win by 1 – 12 points (2.88 @ bluesq) 4 points
Munster win by 1 – 5 points (8.5 @ skybet) 1 point

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Harlequins v Stade Francais Paris

I very nearly missed this one but im very surprised at the odds on the away win here. Harlequins won last week in France but to my mind it was more down to poor play from the French who never stamped their authority on the game. Defeat for the French side last week came as a big surprise to many and Im sure that todays odds are a reflection of that game rather than the current strengths and weaknesses of both sides. They had not been defeated at home since 2002 in this competition so theres a little revenge planned for Quins today. Man for man Stade Francais are a better outfit and are very much fancied to be in the shake up at the end and it would be an even bigger surprise if they didn’t at least reach the semis. Some poor handling will need to be improved and their decision making was also very questionable the last evening as they didn’t look up for a fight at all.
Dean Richards Harlequins side sit n pole position and have given themselves a great chance of progressing to the next round. Today’s game will be a huge test of their character though as they aim to show that last weeks result wasn’t a fluke. They had the advantage mentally last week as they made a lot more use of possession and clearly rattled their opponents with their determination. Danny Care and Nick Evans are the pivotal players for them and they both need to be on top form to reproduce another win.

Verdict
This ones a little short but I can’t pass up Stade at those odds. Another defeat today will be a serious blow to them and they wont be as laid back as last week where I think a little complacency had crept in. Its do or die for them and I expect a hugely improved performance. The pressure is now on the home side to reproduce the form they showed last week and that might prove too much for them. If Stade get in front early on then this could be over in no time.

PICK

Stade Francais Paris ( 2.2 @ ladbrokes) 5 points

Tuesday night

2008-12-09T08:42:00.003Z

Roma V Bordeaux

This is not normally a night i get involved as many teams already know their fate and dont send out their strongest sides. However i like the look of this game as both still have a lot to play for and both need a win to be sure of progressing to the knock out stages. Roma have overcame a poor start to lead the group from Chelsea by 1 point. This in no small way has been down to the recovery of injuries and the return to form of Totti. A draw would be good enough for Roma but in order to finish first they need to win which means they will avoid drawing the likes of Barcelona and Manchester United.
Probable Starting Team – Doni; Cicinho, Juan, Mexes, Riise; Brighi, De Rossi, Perrotta; Menez, Baptista; Totti

Bordeaux need the win full stop. Anything less and they are looking at Uefa Cup for the rest of the season. Laurent Blanc's side need to show the same desire that they did against Chelsea last time out and definately have what it takes to get on the scoresheet and make this one interesting. Roma won the reverse fixture 3 - 1 in Bordeaux so a little payback should be in order. They have a few injury problems though and Valverde will be trying to prove himself in goal and they will look to Diarra and Gourcuff in midfield for some creativity
Probable Starting Team – Valverde; Jurietti, Diawara, Chalmé, Planus; Diarra; Fernando, Wendel, Gourcuff; Cavenaghi, Chamakh

Verdict
Both need the win so we should see some good open football. Roma have been playing well of late and i expect them to win but they do look dodgy at the back sometimes and i expect to see Bordeaux get on the scoresheet at some stage. A 2 - 1 or 3 -1 home win is my call but i prefer to go with the overs bet hers and hopefully we dont have to wait to long for it to come in. There were plenty of goals and chances for more in the first clash between these two and im looking for the same tonight.

PICK
Roma V Bordeaux 0ver 2.5 goals ( 1.99 @ canbet) 5 points

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Championship football

Wolves V Derby

1st against 16th here and im fully expecting Wolves to bounce back from a dissapointing 1 - 0 defeat to QPR at the weekend. In that game Wolves looked surprisingly disjointed and didnt look like the side that has been banging in goals for fun since the season started. To top off that bad result, Reading and Birmingham both won to cut Wolves lead to just 3 points at the top. At home Wolves have been generally solid with 8 wins from 10 and 22 goals scored. Molineaux is usually a tough place to go, especially midweek when not so many away fans ten to make the journey.
Derby were beaten 2 -1 at the weekend by Palace and really need to get a few points together to avoid being dragged near the bottom and the christmas period is going to be a busy one for them. They have only taken 1 points from the last 4 games and have looked very poor in their last 3 away games losing Reading Ipswich and Burnley failing to score in these games.

Verdict
Wolves need 3 points here and its important for the teams confidence that they bounce back with a win. They have thrown away big leads at the top of this league before and they will hope not to do so again this year. They are a good side at home and i dont see that Derby have enough up front to trouble them.

Wolves -1 asian (1.98 @ canbet) 5 points

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Burnley V Cardiff

This one is based on the strengths and weaknesses of two sides. Burnley are a very good outfit on their own turf and look to extend a 12 game unbeaten run tonight.
Burnley are full of confidence at home and have sent Premiership big boys Arsenal and Chelsea crashing from the Carling Cup at Turf Moor. They have not conceded in the last 4 at home and in just over 9 hours in all competitions, a remarkable achievement.
Last 4 home

Burnley	1	Reading	28/10/2008
Burnley	2	Norwich	01/11/2008
Burnley	0	Doncaster	22/11/2008
Burnley	3	Derby	29/11/2008

Cardiff on the other hand have been reliant on their home form and have only won once in the last 8 on their travels, that coming against strugglers Nottingham Forest. They have drawn a good share of away game but have yet to face any real quality and still face trips to the top 3.Tonight will be a big test of their credentials.
Cardiff have the division’s second top scorer, Ross McCormack but unfortunately for them he is injured tonight and with his absence goes the only real threat they had coming into this game. Skipper Stephen McPhail is still suspended and Michael Chopra is expected to lead the line in attack.
Last 4 away

Nott'm Forest	0	1	Cardiff	25/10/2008
Q.P.R.	1	0	Cardiff	08/11/2008
Plymouth	2	1	Cardiff	22/11/2008
Swansea	2	2	Cardiff	30/11/2008

Verdict
Burnley are on fire at home at the moment and why not jump on board. Cardiff are not the best visiting side and have a poor record in midweek games. I really like the odds on the home win here and cant help having a bit o Burnley to win to nil prices up at 3.6 at Paddy power, a feat that has happened in their last 4 home games

PICK
Burnley win ( 2.15 @ canbet) 4 points
Burnley win to nil ( 3.6 @ paddy Power) 3 points

Saturday's bets

2008-12-06T07:47:00.004Z

Time is not on my side today jut just a few brief notes on my picks.

Chelsea look more comfortable on the road away from “fortress” Stamford bridge and should probably pick up another 3 points today at Bolton, another team who are not playing so well in front of their home support. Chelsea’s away record is pretty special with 7 wins from 7 so that is a stat that they would like to keep going.
Chelsea have a huge pick of players and after defeat to Arsenal last time out will be keen to get back on track
Chelsea to win to nil is 2.4 at Paddy Power and il have some of that.

Manchester United are facing a club in crisis at the moment. Sunderland have dropped down to the bottom 3 after a poor run and are now managerless too. Should be cakewalk for United who need to win to close the gap at the top. Il be having a small punt on 3 and 4 nil wins for United as well as laying no hat trick at betfair.

Out side of the premiership there should be wins for Birmingham at home to Waterford in the championship and Leicester at home to Southend should also be too strong.

PICKS
Chelsea win to nil (2.4 @ paddy power) 4 points

Manchester United to win 3 - 0 (8 @ skybet) 1 point
Manchester United to win 4 - 0 (11 @ bluesq) 1 point
Lay no hat trick (betfair 1.12) liability 1 point- profit = 8.3 points

Birmingham – 1 ( 2.13 @ bet365) 4 points
Leicester - 0.75 ( 1.85 @ bet365) 4 points

Uefa cup Wednesday

2008-12-02T23:25:00.002Z

Sevilla FC v FK Partizan Belgrade

This one is a bit of a no brainer and really it should only be a case of how many the home side will win by. It might not be so straightforward though but after a dismal showing in the 3 – 0 defeat at home to Barcelona on Saturday night there is no doubt that the home side are out to restore a bit of pride. Mathematically this game is a must win for Sevilla as they need the 3 points to give themselves a better shot at the top 3 in the group and qualification to the next round. Fabiano will be suspended for Sevilla this coming weekend and should be a starter tomorrow. Navas will return from his suspension and Squilacci is back and should be fit to play.
Partizan have little to play for but pride. 0 points to date and no chance of qualifying begs the question if they will send a full strength squad to Spain. A surprise defeat at the weekend has cut their lead at the top of the Serbian league to 5 points. Admittedly there is a long way to go in their domestic league but that is now the priority as European dreams will have to wait until next year.

Verdict
Home side needing the points versus a poor travelling side that don’t need the points. Should be a routine home win but it’s a little hard to find any real value as the odds on the home win are too low and the asian handicap levels are set about right. Nonetheless Sevilla on their day are capable of mixing it with the best and should win this game by at least a two goal margin.
Good luck

Pick

Sevilla –1.5 (1.7 @bet365) 6 points

Manchester derby

2008-11-29T19:41:00.000Z

Manchester City V Manchester United

The Manchester derby has in the past thrown up some unexpected results so the first bit of advice that I have is not to bet too big on any outcome here. At first look the 4+ odds on Man City look very very tempting, given the recent results that both sides have had. Man City ran out easy 3 – 0 winners against Arsenal but one look at the league table tells us that they are still only in 14th position, just two mere points ahead of Spurs and Newcastle, two clubs said to be in a “crisis”. The blue half’s biggest problem has been consistency. Big results seem to be followed by poor results and to challenge the top 4 as their intentions are, you need to be beating the likes of Spurs, Bolton and Boro, 3 teams that have beaten Man City in recent times. Enough of the history lesson though, at home Man City have been scoring for fun, averaging close to 3 a game.
Stephen Ireland has been in excellent form of late and lets not forget Robinho who has chipped in with 8 goals.

Last 5 home games

Man. City 6 0 Portsmouth 21/09/2008
Man. City 2 3 Liverpool 05/10/2008
Man. City 3 0 Stoke 26/10/2008
Man. City 1 2 Tottenham 09/11/2008
Man. City 3 0 Arsenal 22/11/2008

Robinho is back after an ankle strain picked up against Arsenal. Petrov and Bojinov are long term absentees. Other than that City have no other problems.

Manchester United are having some unusual problems at the moment. Goals are hard to come by and Wayne Rooney hasn’t hit the net for some time now. Consecutive 0 – 0 draws with Aston Villa and Villareal have not done much to inspire confidence at this moment and apart from a Ronaldo effort midweek against Villareal which crashed of the crossbar they looked a little poor up front. They haven’t had the best of this fixture either in recent times and will be keen to get revenge for losing both derbies last season.

Last 5 away games

Chelsea 1 1 Man. Utd. 21/09/2008
Blackburn 0 2 Man. Utd. 04/10/2008
Everton 1 1 Man. Utd. 25/10/2008
Arsenal 2 1 Man. Utd. 08/11/2008
Aston Villa 0 0 Man. Utd. 22/11/2008

After picking up a knock on International duty it appears that Berbatov is back in the fold though he may have to settle for a place on the bench alongside Gary Neville. Scholes looks set to miss also.

Verdict
Given the recent bickering between the two clubs and the jibes from Rooney and Ferguson (about City being a mid table club despite the invesments) it is safe to say that City will not need any motivation coming into this one. However on the other side of the fence United were beaten twice in the derby last year and don’t need to be reminded of that fact. Bottom line is that derbies like this are a bit of a lottery and il be looking for a few value bets in this one. A game to sit back relax and have a few pints in the process. Its Robinho’s first Manchester derby and with the spotlight, media attention and the camera’s on him it might be worth a few quid on him to get his 9th goal in 9 games at the Eastlands. A jab at the 2 – 2 correct scoreline should keep me interested throughout also.
Good luck!

PICKS
Robinho anytime scorer (3.8 @ unibet) 3 points
Correct score 2 – 2 ( 17 @ boylesports) 1 point

More to follow in the morning

My return

2008-11-22T10:06:00.000Z

Im making my return to the site after taking a break from it all. Its amazing what a few weeks off betting, researching and studying can do for you. Onto the weekend and I really only have a few fancies.

Wolves V Blackpool

Wolves have been going really well this season and that’s mainly down to the scoring form of Iwelumo, Ebanks Blake and Kightly. In fact all over the field they have looked like a much-improved outfit from last season. Their defence can be a bit leaky at times but a bit like Spurs of last season Wolves just have this mentality that they can outscore the opposition. In total 14 of 17 Wolves games have gone over the 2.5 goal mark and they have been shut out only once in that spell.
Their home form is rivalled only by their two main threats to the title, Birmingham and Reading. Birmingham beat Swansea last night 3 – 2 to keep the pressure on and Reading should collect 3 points also today against Southampton so there is no room for complacency in the Wolves dressing room. 11 on their players were on midweek international duty but they have all returned with a clean bill of health.
The visiting outfit Blackpool can be more than satisfied with their opening to the season but in more recent times it has been going a bit pear shaped. Recent home defeats to Ipswich and Preston wont have helped their confidence and they have brought in former Aston Villa and England player Lee Hendrie on-loan for his experience. Blackpool have gathered more points on the road too with with the standout result a 1 – 0 win at Birmingham.

Verdict

Blackpool are no mugs on the road and this coupled with Birminghams 3 points last night and 3 points expected for Reading today should have Wolves very focused for this challenge. If their attitude is right, then this should be a comfortable home win.

PICK

Wolves – 1 euro handicap (2.63 @ betdirect) 5 points

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Reading V Southampton

Reading look to continue their great home form today against Southampton. The only time that Reading have failed to collect 3 points was against Qpr a few weeks back, a game I had the displeasure of watching where it finished 0 – 0. In the game after that Reading were shocked 1 – 0 away to Burnley. However that mini crisis seems to have been put behind then and they are looking to record 4 straight wins on the trot. Kevin Doyle has been in sensational for with 14 goals as he bids to fire Reading back into the bigtime.
Southampton are no slouches away from St Mary’s either though with 3 wins but more recently they have only managed to record one win in their last eight games and currently find themselves just outside the drop zone. Their main problem though is their inconsistency. Last weekend they were beaten 2 – 1 at home by Wolves but by all accounts left a great impression on the visiting fans with t heir slick passing and movement. The problem is though which team will turn up today? It will need to be on top form to keep this attacking Reading side at bay. Alex Pearce is on-loan from Reading and will be ineligible for today’s game, with Michael Svensson looking to replace him after his return from a knee problem. Jason Euell will also be unavailable a straight red card last weekend.

Verdict
Reading can ill afford to drop points here. Despite playing some lovely football so far they find themselves 7 points off the top so a win and a convincing win is vital.

PICK

Reading – 1 euro handicap ( 2.2 @ bluesq) 5 points

Brazil Thursday night

2008-09-04T22:06:00.001+01:00

PALMEIRAS - SPORT CLUB DO RECIFE

My recent record is dire to say the least but im confident I can turn it around with a win tonight. Palmeiras are topping the home tables and have won 5 on the spin at home. In all they have only failed to take three points at home on the one occasion and that was back in mid July. Averaging just over two goals a game, scoring hasn’t been an issue to date and they will be keen to take the three points on offer tonight to keep up the pace with Gremio who have built up a nice little lead at the top of the table.
Sport Recife lie in 9th place but like most other teams their record on the road has been a little hazy with only two wins to show for their efforts. They have been kept out in 6 of their 12 away games and they will need a lot of luck up front t o trouble the Palmeiras defence.

Verdict
Palmeiras need the points badly and their home record speaks for itself. They are good enough to beat the handicap too and are well worth a shout to extend their home record to 6 wins.

PICK

Palmeiras – 1.25 ( 1.95 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Chelsea V Tottenham

2008-08-31T09:19:00.002+01:00

Chelsea V Tottenham

Nothing really appealed to me over the weekend as i would rather to let another round or two passing before having a better idea of what level some teams are at.
However there is a huge gulf in class here as i feel Chelsea have the better players in almost every area on the field. Drogba is still out for Chelsea and Ballack and Essien are rated as 50/50 shots. These players are big losses to the team no doubt but Deco has settled into life here very well and should be able to dictate the play around the middle. Two wins from two with 5 goals scored and none conceded is the perfect start that Scolari was looking for. Also they are unbeaten at Stamford bridge for an astonishing 84 games now.
Spurs have been on the end of two 2 - 1 defeats now and theres already talks of a crisis albeit very early in the season for that kind of talk. Selling Keane was a strange move as he scored so often for them yet at the money they got you could hardly blame them. It will be interesting to see how new £14 million signing Roman Pavlyuchenko fits in to things as the season progresses. New signings Luka Modric, David Bentley, Heurelho Gomes and Giovani Dos Santos will all be keen to impress too.

Verdict
To date there have been two very different styles of play evident and i think that Chelsea have too much for Spurs today. It should be a decent game with plenty of goal chances for both sides but i think Chelsea have the better firepower and will take advantage of the chances they are given

PICK
Chelsea - 1 (1.69 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Saturdays picks

2008-08-23T13:17:00.001+01:00

Coventry V Bristol City

Two teams that have started well to the season and Coventry will be eager to keep their 100% record going. For me Freddy Eastwood has and will prove to be a big hit here over the course of the coming year. His strikerate is prolific and alongside Clinton Morrison could well be a great partnership. In this fixture last year Bristol ran out easy 3 - 0 winners and that started a very bad run for Coventry so they will be eager not to let that happen again.
The visitors have a lot to live up to if they hope to achieve as much as they did last season. They are also unbeaten this year and will give a good account of themselves but the loss of centre back Jamie McCombe will be a big loss to them if they hope to keep Eastwood and Morrison under wraps.
Their defence will need to be on top form today and they have struggle to keep clean sheets in the past on the road.
Coventry to win 2 – 0 here as I feel home advantage coupled with their stronger options going forward will be the difference

PICK

Coventry 2.3 @ 188bet (5 points)

Sunday action

2008-08-17T11:46:00.004+01:00

SPL

Dundee United V Celtic

Time to dip my feet into the SPL for a change and im going with Celtic to beat Dundee Utd today.
Utd have a truly awful record against Celtic and after their display last Monday against new boys Hamilton theres obviously not much confidence in the team. Nakamura is back for Celtic and they will be glad to have him back as they need a bit of creativity and he is sure to get the ball into the right positions going forward. Dundee are missing a few and realistically they needed all options available for this clash. Going back to the history of the two teams, Celtic have won 11 of the last 12 games here and with Rangers winning yesterday 3 points are crucial for Celtic.
Celtic have too many options going forward and this will prove the difference against a suspect looking Utd defence which struggles especially from set pieces. Celtic to win 2 - 0

PICK
Celtic - 1 ( 2.15 @ bet365) 5 points

English football

2008-08-16T11:17:00.003+01:00

The English leagues got under way last saturday but in truth i would rather let a few rounds be played before i jump in head first. It often takes a team 3 or 4 games to get settled and we saw that especially with Man Utd last season. So for today, no Premiership bets but i will be keeping a close eye on things

Championship

Norwich V Blackpool

Norwich have hardly set the world alight so far but have just been lacking a little luck in front of goal. They have been creating plenty of chances and having a decent say in the possession stakes at their recent games but just lacking that little spark up front. Of course it could go on for a while but i think they might have better fortune today. Last season was a bit of a struggle and they need to pick up early points and this is the kind of game they should be winning.
Blackpool in truth were lucky to survive last season and their chances are looking slim this year. They sold on some of their better players and really look like a club that will struggle financially to replace them. Lacking the players from last year indicates that this will be a long tough year for them and i cant see them getting anything today. Betsson make Norwich an evens money shot and thats more than generous to me

PICK
Norwich -0.5 ( 2.01 @ betsson) 4 points

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Wolves V Sheffield Wednesday

What are the Molineux faithful to expect this season? Wolves missed out on the championship playoffs on goal difference last year and the start of the season will be vital to their chances of promotion. They always flatter to deceive but i think this could be they year where they finally do what they have threatened for the last few seasons. They have plenty of options going forward in Kightly, Keogh, Ebanks-Blake and Chris Iwelumo. This is where i give them the major advantage today as Wednesday have often been weak at the back. Sheffield Wednesday were excellent in their 4 - 1 win against Burnley but it came at a cost, Sam Sodje who had bagged two goals was forced off through injury and it will be very interesting to see how they cope without him in the next few weeks. Up front his absence will be a huge blow and he's a loss mentally to the team also as they will struggle for goals without him.
Wolves haven't set the world alight just yet but should start off their home campaign with 3 points.

PICK

Wolves win (1.9 @ expect) 6 points

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Reading V Plymouth

To be honest its always hard to know how a team will react when they have been relegated. Some will show determination and resolve and make a dam good attempt to bounce back whereas others struggle as they lose too many games that their heads have already won. So where do Reading fit in? I would have liked to see them stay in the premiership last year but things went horribly wrong for them. Doyle had a terrible year and they lacked goal power to threaten some of the bigger teams. But back in the championship they might be a little too strong for some teams. They have kept the most of their squad together and look determined to bounce back at the first attempt.
Plymouth did enough to earn a 2 - 2 draw at home to Wolves last week but on the road they might struggle, in fact i think its going to be tough for them to survive and games like this will probably be better for them to get out of the way early on. The lack creativity which is their main problem and against opponents like today chances are you will have to score at least once to have any chance of taking something from the game. I just cant see them scoring at the Madjeski. Reading to win 2 - 0 comfortably

PICK
Reading - 1 ( 2.22 @ betsson) 5 points

Champions league qualifying

2008-08-13T10:37:00.001+01:00

SHAKHTAR DONETSK - DINAMO ZAGREB

Shakhtar are a very good team and really should have done better than they did at last years champions league. They have some quality players in their ranks and have taken over from Kiev as the nations top domestic side. They have started off their league campaign a little slowly but this is the tie that will define their season so its fair to say that they will be a lot more motivated tonight. At home they have a decent record in Europe as teams like Celtic found out last year.
Dinamo have a great history and will be no pushovers but history also says that it is nearly 10 years since they reached the knockout stages. They have lost out a couple of times at this stage and really were up against it from the moment the draw was made. They have to start their second choice goalkeeper, a 20 year old and tonight will be a huge test of his character. Their best chance is to keep it as tight as possible and to give themselves a chance in the return leg but for me the hosts have a little quality all over the field and should do enough tonight to give themselves some breathing space for the away leg

PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk – 1 asian (2.08 @ mansion) 5 points

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GALATASARAY- STEAUA BUCHAREST

Two teams with experience and history. Financially this game means a lot to both sides and im expecting a tight clash here. Galatasaray missed out last year so will be keen to get back into the group stages where they have been a tough side to beat, especially at home. They have a fantastic record in these qualifying rounds and despite winning the Turkish league last year, brought in German coach Michael Skibbe to help them out for occasions specifically like this.
Steaua are no mugs either but had a disappointing campaign last year where they only recorded 1 point, a 1 – 1 draw at home to Slavia Prague. Goals remain to be their biggest problem and they could only manage one goal in their three home games last year in the group stages. Janos Szekely is their winger and he is missing tonight and his absence will limit their creativity going forward.
All in all I see Gala taking a lead to the away leg, and most likely a clean sheet as well.

PICK
Galatasaray –0.75 ( 2 @ bet365) 5 points

GAA on Saturday

2008-08-02T12:51:00.005+01:00

Tyrone V Mayo

This is a very hard one to call and no matter what i do im going to have a little saver on the draw as i see this being very tight. Neither have really impressed to date and poor shooting cost Mayo another Connaught crown. Tyrone had a decent win over Westmeath but that kind of game suited them as Westmeath play a similar style of football. Sean Cavanagh took a serious tumble in that game and though he is due to start here i would have serious doubts about his fitness after such an injury. If he has a poor game then its the end of the road for Mickey Harte's men.
This is very even and not reflected in the prices offered by the bookies. Reputation has made Tyrone favourites here and i simply have to back Mayo as they offer far better value, with a small saver on the draw.

Pick
Mayo win (2.75 @ bet365) 3 points
Draw ( 8.5 @ bet365) 1 point

Down V Wexford

Another tough game to call and its hard to know if Wexford have got over that humiliating defeat to Dublin at Croker aa few weeks back. If they show any sign of weakness then Down will destroy them as they are a good team to rack up big scores. Wexfords weakness is in the middle where they lack mobility. Both have suspect defenses and good scoring forwards so i would imagine this should be a good open match with plenty of scores. I went with Benny coulter last week to score first and will try again, he always seems to get into great positions.
I think Down will shade this one

PICK
Race to 10 points - Down ( 1.8 @ bet365) 4 points
1st goalscorer - Benny Coulter ( 7 @ bet365) 1 point

Shelbourne V Athlone Town

2008-08-01T15:12:00.002+01:00

Just a quick look at the stats on this meeting points towards under 2.5 goals. The Irish leagues are not too well known for large scoring games where defensive minded play is the first train of thought. Shelbourne sit in 4th and really need the three points tonight to put them back into the top 2. However they have not won at home in three and are finding goals hard to come by and have been shut out in 3 of the last 4 games. In fact of the 10 home games they have played this season 9 have finished under 2.5 goals.
Athlone also are in need of points tonight to try and distance themselves from the bottom two at the bottom of the table. Goals are also their downfall and they have not scored in their last three games. Much like Shels here, Athlone have a very similar record as far as goals per game go. 10 played away from home and 8 finished under.

Verdict
A narrow 1 - 0 win for the home side here but unders looks to be the best bet

PICK
Under 2.5 goals (1.72 @ paddy power) 4 points

GAA for the weekend

2008-07-26T12:34:00.003+01:00

A couple of football games to chose from today but with home venue playing such a vital part of any teams chances its kind of hard to find value.

Limerick V Kildare

One that looks good to me is Limerick to progress to the next round at the expense of Kildare. Limerick were ruthless last weekend in their demolition of hot favourites Meath and have been priced up as best priced 1.73 chances for this game. They discovered an amazing new talent in Ian Ryan who scored 3 - 7, a remarkable individual score for any player. Obviously his cover is blown now but i would expect him to be well marked and if Kildare make the mistake of concentrating on him then they will be punished by the other forwards. Confidence is high amongst Limerick now and on home soil should have enough to take their championship through to the next round. Kildare needed a last minute goal last weekend against Cavan to make it this far. Their over reliance on Doyle in the last few years has hindered their progress and they now find it hard to make scoring chances.

Verdict
Limerick are full of confidence and playing at home should give them an extra 2 or 3 point advantage that should see them win by 3 0r 4 points. They have the better overall play and create more scoring chances which will give them the edge.

Laois V Down

Two teams here that you just cannot rely on for betting purposes, too often both win when they shouldn't and lose games that they should win at a canter. Down start as favourites and rightly so but Laois on their own patch are a tough nut to crack. Based on form though you would have to plump for the Mourne men and they certainly in good scoring form grabbing 5 - 19 in their last outing against Offaly. il keep it short here, i think that this has the potential to be an open entertaining game and i think we could see a few goals in this. Benny Coulter has an eye for the net and at 8 (paddy power) he certainly is worth a small punt. If this is as open as i expect it to be then i think the best punt is over 2.5 goals at powers. Down scored 5 on their own last weekend and Laois are well capable of getting goals
Over 2.5 goals is my choice

PICKS
Limerick - 1 point (1.91 @ bet365) 4 points 5 points

Laois V Down over 2.5 goals ( 2.5 @ paddy power) 4 points
Benny Coulter 1st goalscorer (8 @ paddy power) 1 point

1 year anniversary of the blog

2008-07-07T13:41:00.004+01:00

One year in and the blog is 117 points in profit overall. I have had some good months and some bad months but i guess anytime your showing a profit over a long period of time then you must be doing something right. Over the course of the year im showing a 12% profit so while many others claim to win all the time i wont. 12% may not sound like a massive increase in the bank but its much better than being -12% !
Im busy trying to make time to work on the new website, as im a bit of an amatuer at these things its taking a little longer than i forecasted. Other than that im more or less waiting for the football to start up again. The Irish season is running at the moment but its not a league i ever really got into and i find it hard enough to predict at times. If anyone is interested in writing a column now and then for the new website then contact me by email and let me know.
Thanks!

Euro 2008 final

2008-06-29T16:42:00.001+01:00

Germany V Spain

In one corner, wearing the white we have the three time champions Germany. In the other corner, the great pretenders, The Spanish with one major title to their name. After all is said and done, all the talk about every team these are the final two. I must admit that I am on the two of these from the beginning so I cannot lose either way but after a few rounds of matches I really though the Netherlands would be the team to beat. However they departed at the hands of the Russians and apart from the Russian no other side really threatened to go all the way.
The best way to look at this game is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of both sides. From a neutral point of view the two teams have both in abundance.

Lets start with the Germans.
Weaknesses – Lehmann, he is just not good enough at this level and he had a shocker against Turkey which almost cost them. Mertesacker and Metzelder are not the most convincing of centre backs either and will have it all to do to keep out An attacking Spanish side.
Strengths – Lahm, he’s a great little player, gets into great attacking positions and well able to put in a cross.
Podolski and Schweinsteiger are proven goal getters and Schweinsteiger in particular is very good from set pieces and added to the arial threat of Klose this is somewhere that the Germans can exploit.

Spain – weaknesses. I have to say that I think their defence is also a little suspect. Ramos has not been convincing and Puyol has not been properly tested. The speed of Lahm attacking them should be interesting. I guess I would count their boss, Aragones as a weakness, his stubbornness in leaving Fabregas on the bench has been astounding, especially considering how good Fabregas has looked with every sub appearance.
Strengths – attack, Torres can score from nothing, Villa is out and his absence is a blow but when you have a player like Fabregas coming in to replace him then all is not lost. Xavi and Iniesta are good at keeping the ball and passing about so the midfield battle will be where it will be won and lost.

Verdict
At the time of writing I cannot confirm whether or not Ballack will play. As a man who has lost all types of finals through his career I think it is most likely he will play through the pain barrier. He missed the world cup final through suspension in 2002 so it would be a travesty if he were to miss again. Spain have this title of choking on the big occasion whereas Germany have the title of winning even when not at their best. Spain have the edge in terms of quality but for me this game is very even. I think there will be an even amount of chances created so it all comes down to who is better equipped to take them. For me I think it will be a bit more open than people think and we could see a few goals
I have a range of bets taken, at the very least will keep me interested until the final whistle and some at nice prices I think.
Good luck whatever you chose

PICK
Over 2 goals (1.71 @ canbet) 4 points

Schweinsteiger anytime goalscorer (7 @ paddy power) 2 points
Podolski anytime goalscorer (4 @ paddy power) 2 points

Man of the match award
Fabregas (8 @bet365) 2 points
Casillas (15 @ bet365) 1 point

GAA on sunday

2008-06-29T12:10:00.002+01:00

Down V Armagh

The Armagh boys are the favourites here but I wouldn’t be so sure. I feel this game is being priced up on past fortunes and reputation as opposed to ability. The ulster championship is well open to many teams now and this is as good a chance as Down are going to have. In Benny Coulter they have a goal getting machine and a very potential game winner. Their cover has been blown somewhat with the win over Tyrone but in that game they showed some admirable qualities and a never say die attitude that may see them through once again. It will be tough hard hitting stuff but the value has to be with Down to keep it close and possibly pull off another great win.

PICK
Down +2 ( 2.38 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Dublin V Westmeath

Huge expectations on the Dubs here and as usual the media circus is writing up their chances of All-Ireland success at this early stage. However while i feel they will most likely win this game today i dont think it will be easy by any means. Westmeath have adopted a very "northern" style of play and Dublin might struggle to break them down. Their defence is very good and they have absolutely nothing to lose here as everyone has written them off. The handicap is far too big here in my opinion and i think Westmeath should keep this one close enough to make for a nervy finish

PICK
Westmeath + 5 (1.91 @ Boylesports) 4 points

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Back later with a Euro final preview

Euro 2008 update

2008-06-26T16:03:00.002+01:00

Well its semi final time and after some great opening days i find myself just about in profit. The games are getting harder to predict now but as we have only one semi left its almost over. Those of you who read the blog often may or may not remember that before anything had began i tipped up both Germany and Spain as outright winners. With one selection already in the final and possibly to be joined by another im quite happy with that.
Onto tonight and the Russians have surprised me too often to go against them again. Therefore i do not have any strong opinions on the game but will have a cheeky few quid on the game to go to penalties as i feel this may go the distance.
Il be back with a final preview though so check back and we'll see can we go out with a bang.
Good luck tonight whatever you chose.

Euro 2008 quarter final

2008-06-21T17:25:00.000+01:00

Netherlands V Russia

To be honest I was one of the people who doubted that the Dutch would make any real significant contribution to the tournament but how wrong I was. They opened up Italy and France and a largely second string side beat the Romanians to give them a 100% record thus far. Now a new task faces them in the form of the Russians who have been hard to figure out to date. In the opening game against Spain they looked outclassed and didn’t impress all that much against the Greeks side either. But then came that wonderful display against Sweden where they scored two great goals and passed the ball about with ease. On that evidence its very hard to ignore the fact that they are capable of giving the Netherlands a good game tonight.
My only concern for the Russians is that they were in action on Wednesday night in a crucial game whereas the Dutch booked this ticket a long time ago giving themselves a chance to rest players. For that reason alone I think the Dutch will have a huge advantage in the fitness stakes and that especially as the game wears on this will come into play. Also the quality of the Dutch bench is worth noting, Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar are not guaranteed starting places and they would walk onto most national sides. For Russia Arshavin is they key man, he looked sharp and eager against Sweden but surely wont have as much time and space here tonight.

Verdict
I have to go with the Dutch here, they have demonstrated devastating attacking ability and created numerous chances against Italy and France, teams noted for their defensive qualities.
It may be tight for a while but as the game progresses I think Netherlands will show their superior fitness levels and and pull away. 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 is my verdict. Overs looks to be a decent shout here also.

PICK
Netherlands – 1 (2.18 @ canbet) 4 points

Euro 2008 tonight

2008-06-15T17:44:00.001+01:00

Switzerland V Portugal

It will be very interesting to see how both sides approach this game. Both already know their destiny so for Portugal it may be a case of resting players. Still though they will want to keep the momentum going and id be expecting a decent performance. The players who will get their chance tonight will be eager to impress Scolari and Portugal have some great attacking players to call on
The Swiss are out but will be desperate to give the home fans something to cheer about. There is no pressure on them anymore so they can at least play with a little freedom tonight. Their problem so far has been up front, they have created chances but lacked composure. Their midfield is solid and their defence could be in for a rough night so they will need to be on their toes.

Verdict
Hopefully this will be an entertaining game with a few goals and the Swiss might have something to shout about. Theres nothing stopping them from going forward a bit and being a bit more adventurous while Portugal have plenty of attacking options. Even if they field a few subs, Nani or Quaresma? These players wont weaken the team one bit and im expecting a portugal win somewhere along the lines of 2 – 1 or 3 – 1

PICK
Over 2.5 goals (2.02 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Sunday picks

2008-06-15T13:43:00.003+01:00

One GAA pick here. Odds are available at a range of bookies and ive chosen bet365 as they have the best odds for this pick.
Its Clare +15.5 points against Kerry.
Il be heading to the game shortly so il keep it short for now. Kerry will win this, of that theres no doubt, but i think the handicap is set too high for this one. Kerry could win by 20 if they want but i think the focus will be more on trying out new players and testing new formations as opposed to running up a big score which will not tell them much. The bookies have priced this one up wrong i feel. Kerry will most likely win by 10 - 12 points and Clare will be out to keep the score respectable.

PICK
Clare +15.5 points ( 2.05 @ bet365) 5 points

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Euro 2008 picks will be up soon

Euro 2008 - Day 8

2008-06-14T14:17:00.004+01:00

Sweden V Spain

The Euro’s have gone a bit arse ways for me in the last few games so hopefully il get back on track today. First game off is the Swedes against Spain and this should be interesting as we will find out a lot about both teams chances today. Both won their opening games but against poor opposition so it remains to be seen just how good either of these really are. Spain overcame a rather poor Russian side with Villa scoring a hat trick. Torres played very well also and was extremely unselfish in some of his passing when others would have gone on their own. Spain played some typically attractive football and passed it about well and got into great scoring positions time after time, but their defence is still rather suspect and im not convinced. Ramos had an absolute howler and will need to improve considerably or Spain could be in trouble.
Sweden came through the opening game against Greece courtesy of some great play by Ibrahimovic. Interestingly he had not scored in a Swedish jersey since 2005 so hopefully he is back on track. Henrik Larsson will also be vital today. He will be up against Puyol and he will know the best way to get by him from his days at Barca. Overall the Swede’s are a very decent organised side who are well able to score. Christian Wilhelmsson is out injured though and this is cause for concern as he played well on day 1.

Verdict
As it stands I fancy both sides to go through but whoever finishes in second will have to face Portugal in the next round so a draw is not so good for either. Id like to see an open attacking game and that’s what im expecting. Goals then is the obvious choice

PICK
Over 2 goals (2.25 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Greece V Russia

Two teams without a point and defeat for either means an early exit for the loser so both will be keen to take the three points.
Neither side impressed too much in the opener but at least Greece looked like getting a result. The Russians caved in far too early and never really looked like getting anything from the game. Even when they were behind they never attacked the game as if they were desperate for a result, inatead they passed it about and didnt seem too worried.
Greece don’t play the most attractive football but it is usually effective. For large parts of the Sweden game they looked comfortable but my only concern was the lack of a threat up front. The defence is the first priority but Otto Rehhagel is likely to be a little more adventurous tonight.
Russia are a well drilled team and have a great leader in Hiddink. However they are sorely missing their top scorer Pogrebnyak and look very tame up front.

Verdict
Il keep it short and sweet, why the Russians have been installed as favourites im not sure but one thing is for certain and that is that Greece wont go out as defending champions without a fight. I would give the Greeks the slight edge but am very weary of a draw so Greece +0.5 is my choice in a low scoring encounter

PICK
Greece +0.5 (1.69 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Euro picks for today

2008-06-14T08:30:00.002+01:00

Busy weekend with a good bit to chose from. After a great start to the Euros, things have gone a a bit pear shaped for me but were still in profit. Im still angry about the 93rd minute goal conceded by Poland but anyhow, onwards and upwards. il be back later with my Euro picks and also a very strong selection for tomorrow in Gaa. Check back later, about 1 or 2 pm.

Euro 2008 - Day 7

2008-06-13T08:34:00.001+01:00

Italy V Romania

We all know what happened in the first round games here. Italy were thumped 3 – 0 by the Netherlands and Romania played out a 0 –0 with France. After the Dutch game I was very fast to write off Italy but in hindsight maybe I didn’t give them enough credit. On watching the highlights of the game I think it is fair to say that everything went right for the Dutch whereas Italy did not have any luck in front of goal. Who knows if Toni had scored that great chance when they were 2 – 0 down then anything could have happened.
Anyhow onto today and this is a must win game for both sides. I think Italy have much more in terms of ability and luckily for this bet they are a humiliated team and playing for pride. Romania are very limited and happy to frustrate teams and try to take their chances on the counter attack. However the Italian defence got a lesson the last night so I would expect them to tighten up at the back considerably. The introduction of Grosso and Del Piero brought a bit of spark to the Dutch game so hopefully they will start tonight.

Verdict
Taking the two opening games into consideration I would say that the scoreline was harsh on Italy and flattered the Romanians a little as they didn’t really try to come out and score.
Italy do have the technical advantage and I don’t expect them to take this challenge lightly or to make the same defensive errors again. Italy win for me.

PICK
Italy win (1.73 @ paddy power) 5 points

Euro 2008 - Day 6

2008-06-12T09:02:00.002+01:00

Austria V Poland

Pre tournament everybody was saying how bad Austria were and that they would be the whipping boys. On opening day they were very unlucky not to get something from the game against Croatia. The big question is, did they play above themselves? And if the answer is yes then can they do it once more. Croatia looked very tired for some reason and despite some decent scoring chances the Austrians just could not score. Striker Roland Linz looks set to miss and if he is out his absence will be a huge blow.
Poland lost the opening game 2 – 0 but were always up against it against tournament favourites Germany. They still made 2 or 3 chances and maybe if a little sharper in front of goal could have got a result. Nevertheless the introduction of Roger Guerreiro at half time brought a new dimension to the Polish attack and he looked very dangerous. I hope he is starting tonight.
A result is vital for both sides tonight but I think people are over reacting on the opening day results and not giving Poland much credit. Remember they finished above Portugal in the qualifying group so the players are there. Austria are outside the top 100 in the world rankings and even though they played well on day 1 I still think they will finish bottom of the group. A Poland win would set them up nicely for the last game against Croatia and that is how I see this one going.

Verdict
A Poland win is where I see this one going. 1 – 0 or 2 – 0 perhaps. Im quite surprised at the odds but think this is a reaction to the opening fixtures. Just because you are the home nation does not entitle you to any advantage, just ask the Swiss about last night.

Pick
Poland ( 2.32 @ pinnacle) 4 points

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Croatia V Germany

Interesting tie here, both teams were well talked as pre tournament faves. Both won on opening day but under different circumstances. Germany were their usual selves and played some good football against Poland. Croatia looked very tired and were hanging on to a 1 – 0 lead for much of the game against whipping boys Austria. Maybe over confidence or whatever im not sure but they certainly didn’t do anything to convince me they should be backed as outside favourites. Germany powered through Poland. Two goals from Podolski and in truth they could have easily had 2 or 3 more. On saying that though they left a few spaces at the back but luckily for them Poland couldn't capitalise.
Now normally I would jump on a German win here but I'm cautious for one reason. If this game is level with say 10 or 15 minutes to go then you could see both sides sit back and take the foot off the pedal as a draw is good enough for both sides. Germany face Austria in the last game so realistically have 3 points there if they want. Croatia would then head into the game against Poland knowing a draw would be enough (presuming Poland win tonight)
On that basis I think it might just finish a draw. Therefore for me the better value is to find a first goalscorer
Klose and Gomez got into enough scoring chances against Poland but unselfishly laid the ball off. I think both of them will be well up for this again tonight so will go for either of them to score first with small stakes.

PICKS
Klose 1st goal – 7 @ coral ( 1 point)
Gomez 1st goal – 7 @ coral ( 1 point)

Euro 2008 - Day 5

2008-06-10T22:38:00.003+01:00

Portugal V Czech Republic

First things first, I do not rate the Czech’s. They were lucky in qualifying and really lucky to get by the Swiss in the opening fixture. Without Rosicky they really do not possess the attacking threat needed to be considered as candidates to win.
Probable starting line-up (4-4-2): Cech - Grygera, Ujfalusi, Rozehnal, Jankulovski - Sionko, Matejovsky, Galasek, Kovac, Plasil - Koller
Portugal on the other hand can score goals from anywhere and have exciting attacking options, especially from the midfield in.
Probable starting line-up (4-3-3): Ricardo - Bosingwa, Pepe, Carvalho, Ferreira - Moutinho, Petit, Deco - Quaresma, Nuno Gomes, Ronaldo
As I see it, Portugal have the upper hand here in all areas and have a full squad to chose from. Winning the game is vital for both sides but again I think Portugal will want to wrap up qualification as early as possible and perhaps rest a few players in the final group game.

Verdict
Portugal look good to me and have too much attacking ability. They are a fast moving team and should have too much pace for the Czech’s.

PICK
Portugal (2 @ betsense) 4 points

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Switzerland V Turkey

Im doing my best to find an angle here but to no avail. The Swiss deserved something from the opening round but didnt get it and now are without Frei. Turkey were poor against Portugal and were lucky that they were only beaten by 2 goals.

No bet for me

Euro 2008 - Day 4

2008-06-10T08:33:00.002+01:00

Actually i am not doing anything for either of tonights games. Im just not familiar with the teams to make an informed decision. The Greeks defensive organisation may prove to be too much for Sweden but the Swede's have a match winner in Ibrahimovic so anything is possible.
I thunk Spain should be good enough to beat the Russians also but not at the odds. The Russians have Gus Hiddink in charge and he is a man capable of miracles so for me its a game best left alone.
Good luck whatever you chose!

Euro 2008 - Day 3 - The group of Death

2008-06-09T10:08:00.002+01:00

France V Romania

Everyone seems to be siding with the French here and im not sure why. France are beatable, any Scottish fan can tell you that and they are typically slow starters at big tournaments.
Romania deserve a lot of credit for how they qualified, finishing above the Netherlands who are also in the same group as them. They are a very organised unit with a decent defence in the shape of Chivu, Contra, Tamas, Goian and Rat. This is a huge test for them but they are in the perfect position as nobody really gives them a chance and doesn’t everyone love to be tagged an underdog? I guess what people are saying about the French now is very similar to what people were saying 2 years ago before they reached the world cup final. William Gallas and Lillian Thuram are the centre backs while Makélélé is in the middle with Toulahan who replaces the injured Viera. Ribery is sure to be the main player and if he’s on form then anything is possible here. Up front Domenech has to chose from Henry, Benzema and Anelka and it appears he will rest Henry.
Predicted line-up: Coupet; Sagnol, Abidal, Gallas, Thuram; Toulalan, Makélélé, Ribéry, Malouda; Anelka, Benzema
Romania come into this competition without the injured reserve goalkeeper Danut Conman and midfielder Ovidiou Petre but they have little to worry about otherwise.
Predicted line-up: Labont; Contra, Rat, Goian, Tamas Chivu; Radoi, Dica, Petra; Mutu, Marica

Verdict
This is the group of death so every game is vital. I have a feeling that the tag of underdogs might play right into the Romanians hands here and they can get a result. The French have a habit of disappointing when they should win and haven't convinced me enough to say that they should be as low as 1.83 in places. The main advantage they have here is in terms of experience but I think the organised Romanians can frustrate the French and take a result.

Pick
Romania +0.5, +1 (1.82 @ gamebookers) 4 points

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Netherlands V Italy

Interesting clash here. Italy are the same as usual, even without Cannavaro they have a world class defence and probably be in the final 4 whenever that time comes. Luca Toni had an amazing season and he will no doubt fancy his chances here against a suspect looking Dutch back four.
The Netherlands were dealt a massise blow midweek when they learned that Arjen Robben will miss this game through injury. His absence seriously limits the Dutch teams attacking options. They have a few casualties to deal with too as Clarence Seedorf pulled out before the tournament and Ryan Babel injuring himself in training. Robain Van Persie has spent most of the last season injured and its unlikely he will play tonight.
With the exception of Cannavaro, Italy have more or less a full squad to chose from.

Verdict
Il keep it short and sweet, I think the Dutch are going to have it all to do to qualify here. I think the Italians are the best side in the group and will most likely emmerge as winners. They have a top notch defence and will fancy themselves going forward against a weak Dutch defence. If Robben was playing id be a little more optomistic for the Dutch but without his creativity and speed I don’t see where the goals will come from.
Italy draw no bet for me

PICK
Italy +0 ( 1.7 @ bet365) 5 points

Euro 2008 - Day 2

2008-06-08T12:37:00.001+01:00

Germany V Poland

Everything looks set for a cracking match here as neighbours clash. Germany are the title favourites and probably rightly so as they are strong in defence and midfield and will probably keep many clean sheets and from an attacking perspective have plenty of options.
Predicted Line-Up: Lehmann, Lahm, Metzelder, Mertesacker, Jansen, Frings, Ballack, Schweinsteiger, Podolski, Gomez, Klose
This is Polands first European championships and they have it all to do here as they have failed to beat Germany in the last 15 attempts. Midfielder Jakub Blaszczykowski suffered a hamstring injury and is ruled out for the entire tourney so his absense is a blow to Leo Beenhakker.
Predicted Line-Up: Boruc, Zewlakow, Wawrzyniak, Bak, Wasilewski, Lewandowski, Lobodzinski, Murawski, Dudka, Smolarek, Zurawski
There has been trouble in the media lately with the Polish press printing images of Beenhakker holding the severed heads of both Ballack and Löw, something that didn’t go down well in the German camp.

Verdict
In Arthur Boruc Poland have one of the best goalkeepers in the business and he will have to be on top form if Poland are to get anything from this game. The Germans are very sound defensively and Poland are going to have to be very clinical up front and not waste any chances they may get. Overall though it is the Germans who have the better balance and quality and with Ballack and Frings in the middle they will have the edge here. 1 – 0 to the Germans wouldn’t surprise me but I think that Poland's best chance is to frustrate and unders looks like good value here

PICK

Germany V Poland under 2.5 (2 @ totesport) 4 points

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Austria V Croatia

The Austrians have qualified as hosts and are the lowest ranked team in the competition. Its really hard to make a case for them taking anything from any of the games. Coming into this game they lack experience, form and preparation and do not have the players required to cope at this level.

In stark contrast Croatia have been installed as dark horses and why not. They are technically very good and in Niko Kranjcar they have a player of genuine class. Its vital to get off to a good start and they will be fully focused today. I couldnt be but impressed at the way they beat England in the qualifiers and it takes a good team to beat the English at Wembley.

Verdict
A shorter than usual preview but I havent too much to say on this one, Croatia are highly ranked in the world rankings and I am a little surprised at the odds on offer for them to win. I feel the odds on offer are more to do with Austria being at a home venue but I cant see this helping them as much as people think.
There is a huge gulf in class here and I expect the Croats to get off to winning ways

PICK
Croatia ( 1.91 @ paddy power) 6 points

Euro opening games

2008-06-07T13:48:00.001+01:00

Switzerland V Czech Republic

The hosts against the Czechs in what is sure to be a well supported first match to get us underway.
As I have mentioned elsewhere I think that Portugal are going to come out of the group as winners here so this game is vital for both sides. Its not all that bad an opening game for the Swiss though as I feel they can frustrate the Czechs. For me the Czech are not as strong this time around and they will be found out eventually. Rosicky is out and they will miss this playmaker badly.
The Swiss rely on a strong defence. They are not renowned for being prolific goalscorers and were eliminated from the last world cup having kept clean sheets in each of their games.
Home venue means massive local support for them but their lack of class up front will cost them.

Verdict
The longer that this game goes with no goal then the happier that both will be to settle for a draw. Senderos will be big and strong enough to match Jan Koller and if he can be kept from knocking down balls then its hard to see where the goals will come from.
A draw for me

PICK
Switzerland v Czech Republic Draw ( 3.1 @ vc bet) 3 points

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Portugal V Turkey

Portugals last game in the Euro championships was of course that defeat to Greece in the final. Pauleta and Figo are now gone but the Portuguese team still has plenty of potential. Ronaldo has just completed an amazing season and transfer talk has been rife in the last 2 weeks. Ricardo Carvalho Simao and Quaresma are more talented players and Quaresma in particular may be playing for a transfer deal if he plays well. Portugal look sound in defence but despite all their big name players they really lack a deadly striker. Gomes looks likely to be the lone man up front but should have plenty of support from both wings.
The Turks only scrapped through to the tournament but have enough quality to trouble teams. However their defence is suspect and keeping out Portugal will be extremely hard. Altintop is a serious doubt and Coach Terim will most likely stick with a 4-4-2, with either Senturk or Erdinc partnering Nihat up front. Aurelio is likely to be the man pulling the strings in the middle.

Verdict
The opening game is usually the hardest for teams but I think Portugal have the quality to take a vital win here. My only concern is the weight of expectation on Portugal and in particular on Ronaldo. However I think Turkey are a little slow at the back and will be caught out. Overs or a Portugal win? I'm a little weary of Portugal winning 2 – 0 so il stick with the win instead of overs.

PICK
Portugal ( 1.75 @ paddy power) 5 points

Euro 2008 outright bets

2008-06-07T12:33:00.003+01:00

Im really looking forward to the next 4 weeks or so with non-stop football to bring us closer to the kick off of the domestic leagues.
Il jump straight in and I think that Germany are going to be there or thereabouts come June 29th. Interestingly they have not won a game at the Euro championships since 1996! But I think they have a tough defensive unit and are once more a team to follow as I expect them to grind out a few 1 – 0 narrow wins. Ballack is 100% fit for a change and I think the draw has favoured them so they have a slightly easier run to the knock out stages then others.

Another candidate that I have is Spain. It sounds strange to say it, as they have been guilty of choking many times before but its just too hard to ignore a team with as many stars as they have. Fabregas, Torres, Casillas, Silva etc, the names are all familiar and if they gel together then they have potential to go all the way. As with the Germans the group draws have favoured them and they are favourites to get to the next round.

Winners

Germany (5 @ centrebet) 3 points
Spain (6.55 @ pinnacle) 3 points

Group stages.
Group A
Maybe not the most original of picks but its very hard to ignore Scolari and Portugal to emerge as group winners. The reason is simple. The Czech republic are second favourites and I was not at all impressed with them as they struggled to draw with Ireland away in Dublin and just about did enough to beat the Irish at home. Being from Ireland I know just how poor this current Irish side is and I would have expected the Czech team to be far more convincing. Take Rosicky out from the middle and to me they look a little tame, who can forget his piledrivers at the last world cup. Up front they don’t do enough to convince me.
The two others are Switzerland and Turkey in this group and who’s to say either of these two cant progress? The Swiss are built around a firm defensive unit but then again as an Arsenal fan I know just what Senderos is capable of. Home advantage will help but will it be enough?
Turkey are the outsiders for this group and im not sure why, fair enough they face Portugal in the opening game but at least will head into the Swiss game knowing exactly how important the win will be. This is their first finals appearance since their third-placed finish at World Cup 2002 but need to tighten up at the back to do well. I expect the Turkish to score a few goals and give themselves a fighting chance.

Il go with Portugal as group winners here, I fully expect them to take at least 2 wins and a draw in the group and emerge as winners. All the talk lately is of Ronaldo and he will be out to impress. Im expecting big things from Quaresma too. For second place I think there might be a surprise here and think the Swiss might be that surprise.

PICK
Portugal group A winners (2.38 @ bluesq) 5 points
Portugal 1st/ Switzerland 2nd (6.5 @ paddy power) – 2 points

Top goalscorer

This is a tricky market to predict but if you want to find the top goalscorer then you have to look to the teams that will be around the longest and I think that a German has the best chance of taking this award. Michael Ballack is coming into this tournament on form and fresh having missed a large chunk of Chelsea’s season. Take into consideration the teams in Germany’s group, Austria a team they should beat with ease, Poland and Croatia will be a little more difficult but they should still get through both of these games with maybe a 1 or 2 – 0 scoreline.
Ballack is likely to kick any free kicks or penalties that come up making the 40/1 about him getting the golden boot most generous.
It should also be mentioned that Ballack is the bookies favourite to be named player of the tournament and at 10/1 he is also worth a shout here too. His presence is immense and he always plays well for his country.
Not much more to say on him really, the prices are too big to ignore and well worth a shot considering how much of a lottery this market can be

PICK
Ballck to win the golden boot (41 @ canbet) 2 points
Ballack- player of the tournament (10 @ boylesports) 3 points

Euro 2008

2008-06-06T08:18:00.002+01:00

Its been a quiet few weeks for me since the EPL and English football finished but were back to business tomorrow with the kick off for Euro 2008. I will, time permitting be having a look at each and every game over the course of the month. Obviously some games will be a little easier to read than others but im looking forward to the next 4 weeks or so. So stay tuned and il be back later on tonight with a look at the first games and some early outright bets for the tournament.

Heineken Cup Final

2008-05-24T08:09:00.000+01:00

Munster V Toulouse
Date: Saturday, May 24
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17.00 (16.00 GMT)

What a game that’s in store for us here this evening and I can’t wait for it. I had tickets and was all set to go but unfortunately for me work commitments got the better of me so il have to make do with watching this one from the comfort of my home.
Anyone who knows what they are talking about will agree that these two are the best club teams in Europe and one couldn’t have asked for a better pairing in the final.
After both France and Ireland underachieved at the world cup a few months ago there is a sense of national pride resting on the outcome of this game and that is especially the case for the Munster side.
Munster boss Declan Kidney is in charge for his last outing before taking over the national job and he has named the same side that unconvincingly defeated Saracens in the semi final. As usual a lot today will depend on O Gara and his kicking ability. After the disaster he had at the world cup he is back on song and playing really well at club level. Munster are able to call upon the likes of Doug Howlett and Ian Dowling on the wings, whilst at scrumhalf, Tomas O'Leary has been chosen once more over Peter Stringer.

Munster:
Beat Saracens 18-16 in the semi-final
Beat Gloucester 16-3 in the quarterfinal
Beat London Wasps 19-3
Lost to Clermont Auvergne 19-26
Beat Llanelli Scarlets 22-13
Beat Llanelli Scarlets 29-16
Beat Clermont Auvergne 36-13
Lost to London Wasps 23-24

Toulouse are a typically strong French side and have plenty of experience. To be fair to them I think the draw has been a little kinder to them so far with them topping their group courtesy of 4 bonus points picked up along the way. That set up a home tie with Cardiff, which they were never going to lose. After that they had semi final debutantes London Irish to contend with which they won 20 – 15.
Names like Cédric Heymans, Yannick Jauzion, Jean-Baptiste Elissalde and Byron Kelleher would put fear into most teams and add in forward such as Thierry Dusautoir, Shaun Sowerby, Patricio Albacete, Fabien Pelous, William Servat and you know you have a good team. The clash of Pelous and O Connell will be crucial, as they will line up against each other in the line out

Toulouse:
Beat London Irish 21-15 in the semi-final
Beat Cardiff Blues 41-17 in the quarterfinal
Beat Edinburgh 34-10
Lost to Leinster 13-20
Beat Leicester Tigers 22-11
Lost to Leicester Tigers 9-14
beat Leinster 33-6
Beat Edinburgh 19-15

Verdict
I really can’t call this one as it’s a toss of a coin for me. Both are very strong and maybe the slight advantage is with the French. But Munster have over 60,000 fans making the journey and they are loud and fanatical which should create an electric atmosphere. With it being so tight I can only see the winner taking this game by the slimmest of margins so perhaps the best choice is to take both teams to win by 1 – 5 points margin with a tiny saver on the draw. Remember two of the previous finals have been drawn so it’s not impossible and at odds of 20/1 is worth a small shot

PICKS
Munster to win by 1 – 5 points = 6 @ ladbrokes – 3 points
Toulouse to win by 1 – 5 points = 7 @ ladbrokes – 3 points
Munster/ Toulouse draw = 21 @ paddy power – 1 point

FA Cup final

2008-05-17T09:17:00.002+01:00

Portsmouth V Cardiff

An amazing FA Cup comes to an end today and to be fair to everyone I don’t think many would have expected either of the finalists to get this far.
Lets start with Portsmouth first, They have beaten four Championship sides – Ipswich, Plymouth, Preston and West Brom on the way to the final though and with Lauren (three medals), Sol Campbell (two) and Kanu (two) on board they have the advantage in terms of experience.
Their final few matches in the season will have been an area of concern though as they lost four in a row and failed to score for the last five-and-a-half hours.
Jermaine Defoe is cup tied and his absence is a huge loss, considering his impact since he arrived at the club.
Cardiff will aim to be the first team outside the top flight to win the FA Cup since West Ham way back in 1980. The bluebirds have the one title, which came way back in 1927.
When you compare the path of each team to the final it is hard to make a big case for Cardiff, the only premiership team they beat along the way was Middlesborough who froze on the day compared to Pompeys run which included wins over Ipswich, Plymouth and the Baggies, teams who all finished above Cardiff in the league.
The only Cardiff players to have experienced a final before are veteran strikers Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Robbie Fowler, the latter who hasn’t played since December.

Verdict
When all is said and done this is still a final and anything is possible. Nobody has given Cardiff a sniff here and Portsmouth have been favourites for a long time now. In terms of experience Pompey have a crucial advantage and this may be a huge factor today. All their players have played on big occasions before and while it may be a bit unfair to say that Cardiff will buckle under the pressure, it will be very interesting to see how they cope with the thought of a packed stadium and millions watching on tv’s around the world.
Id expect a slow cautious start from both sides here and we may have to wait a while before things open up. Eventually though I expect Portsmouth’s class and experience to show through.

Two selections for me here

Draw HT/ Portsmouth FT- 4.5 @ bet365 (2 points)
Portsmouth win – 1.73 @ bet365 ( 6 points)

UEFA Cup final

2008-05-13T22:01:00.002+01:00

Zenit St. Petersburg - Glasgow Rangers

Not many had these two teams picked out as potential winners a few months ago but there is no doubting that both deserve to be here on the final day. Both have played different styles and taken different approaches to games so far with Rangers adopting a successful defensive approach to games whereas Zenit perfected the counter attack in the semi final scoring 4 goals against mighty Bayern Munich.
We’ll start with Zenit first, managed by Dick Advocat, a man who also spent 4 years in charge of Rangers. He brought Zenit to their first league title in 2007 and though this year has started of slowly it would appear that this final is the focus of their attention. Unfortunately for them Pogrebnyak, their top scorer is suspended and his absence is a huge loss. Andrei Arshavin is back from his own suspension, as are Radek Sirl and former Rangers player Fernando Ricksen. They are in the final courtesy of a resounding 4 – 0 win against Bayern Munich, a result which shocked many. They play fast open football and move it around fast though they may have their work cut out for them to score against a Rangers side that pinpointed defence as their main strength.
Rangers have frustrated sides at time this year and are here after two 0 – 0 games against Fiorentina, whom they eventually overcame on penalties. One of the main causes of concern for them is that they have a serious amount of games to get through in a congested fixture list. On the plus side for them, motivation will not be a problem as they are looking for their first European trophy since that 1972 European Cup Winners' Cup win. Over 100,000 fans are expected to make the journey to Manchester so they will be well cheered on.

Verdict
As with all finals anything is possible here. I just feel that Rangers have had too much to deal with lately with trying to keep the pressure on Celtic in the SPL and trying to cope with so many games coming so fast after each other its bound to have a negative effect on them. On the other hand Zenit have had a nice long break coming into this game and despite missing their top scorer have been installed as favourites.
For me it will be very interesting to see how Zenit’s attack cope with the Gers defence. Im all for Zenit here but am very wary of the draw.
Zenit draw no bet it is.

PICK
Uefa cup final
Zenit ST Petersburg +0 (1.62 @ boylesports) 5 points

Sunday picks

2008-05-04T11:37:00.000+01:00

Liverpool V Man City

Ok il probably get slated for this pick but im going to oppose the home side here. It’s been a tough week for Liverpool fans losing out on a champions league spot during the week. With that result went any last remaining thoughts of silverware and physically and mentally it was a very draining exercise. Skrtel went off injured and reports suggest that Torres is also absent today.
Both teams are similar in regards to off the field trouble. The ownership problems at Liverpool are well documented and City were rocked by the news this week that Sven Goran Eriksson’s ten month reign will be brought to an end shortly by Thaksin Shinawatra. Its bizarre to me really as Man City have had a great season, and it’s not a popular choice as Eriksson is a popular man at Eastlands. He is held in high regard by the players and the decision has angered many of the players and supporters, especially those players who appear to have signed contracts on the basis that Sven would be at the helm for the “three year plan” bandied about by the club owners.
With this in mind we should see a much better and determined performance from the visitors today as the target appears to be to embarrass Shinawatra. Man City left themselves down last week, throwing away a 2 – 0 lead to lose 3 – 2 to strugglers Fulham.

Verdict
Rafa will probably rotate the Liverpool team a bit and freshen it up but after the gruelling 120 minutes they played at Stamford bridge on Tuesday there will be some tired minds out there. They are already assured of 4th place too so the pressure is somewhat off them.
Manchester City have a point to prove to the club owners today and although they are without Dunne and Richards they can still give a good account of themselves.
An away win might sound unrealistic to some but remember Man City won away at Old Trafford when nobody gave them a sniff. Against all odds Wigan won away at Aston Villa yesterday so results like this are not so extraordinary. Man City to at least get a draw for me.

PICK
Manchester City +0.5 ( 2.58 @ 5dimes) 4 points

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Blackpool V Watford

One of the few championship games where something is riding on the result. Interestingly a draw may be enough for both teams so a cagey affair is to be expected here. Blackpool are in 18th place and a draw will be enough to keep them up as long as Southampton don’t win by 13 or more goals!
The mathematics tell us that Watford only need a point for a playoff spot but only if Wolves don’t win by three or more.
What does this all mean? It means that at this moment a draw is probably good enough for both teams and I feel that it will be a tight cagey low scoring affair. Blackpool are no mugs at home and have only been defeated once in the last eleven games.
Half time draw stands out as having a great shot as neither team will want to commit too much early on. If Wolves take a 3 – 0 lead elsewhere then Watford may have to go looking for a win but this situation should not come up until after half time. Remember a defeat for Watford would be a disaster so cagey and disciplined would be how I see them staring the game.
Anyhow, half time draw is the selection for me

PICK
Blackpool V Watford ht draw ( 2 @ paddy power) 4 points

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Sheffield Wednesday V Norwich

Sheffield will have the final say over their own destiny, as a win will ensure survival for another year. Luckily for them they are facing Norwich, a team who are safe and as such only playing for pride. Since they won 3 away on the trot back in Jan/Feb Norwich have stuttered along on the road picking up 1 point from a possible 18.
Sheffield have really responded well to the relegation threat and last weeks 3 – 1 win away to Leicester was a massive result. At home they are undefeated in 5 and they include games against teams such as Stoke and in form Coventry.
Ticket prices have been reduced for the home fans to encourage a sell-out crowd and with two teams with contrasting needs and form its just impossible to look past the home win today.
Sheffield Wednesday to stage a final day survival act and take 3 points.

PICK
Sheffield Wednesday (1.73 @ totesport) 6 points

Some weekend picks

2008-05-03T07:53:00.002+01:00

Sorry for my absense guys. Its been a tough few weeks workwise for me so ive been absent from any betting. Onto the weekend

Aston Villa V Wigan

Villa are probably one of the form teams in the premiership at the moment and it would be unwise to write them off at any venue. Agbonlahor has scored in each of the last 4 games and his pace should get him into some decent positions today against a Wigan side that is as good as safe.
The goals are flowing and 17 in the last 4 games are encouraging signs. They are fighting it out for 5th place with Everton and today is a great chance to get back on track as Everton have a tough fixture away at the Emirates to think about.
Wigans away record speaks volumes about them (1-5-12) with almost 2 goals a game conceded. Most of their points tally have came from a solid home record but take them on the road and they are wobbly at best. That being said they can be tough opposition and you can expect them to make Villa work hard for the 3 points today.
Villa are on song at the moment and could probably land the overs themselves in this game but ive a feeling that Wigan are good enough to snatch a goal here and make a game of it.
Overs for me.

PICK
Aston Villa/Wigan over 2.5 goals ( 1.9 @ unibet) 3 points

Blackburn V Derby

There is not much to say about this one that you guys don’t already know. Derby are just too poor for the top flight and have been whipping boys for most of the season.
They were thumped 6 – 2 by Arsenal midweek but were just delighted that they got on the scoresheet twice.
If an unmotivated side so comprehensively defeated them then how will they do against a Blackburn side in need of the 3 points? The home side are not known as prolific scorers but have scored in each of the last 5 at Ewood park and today should be more target practice for them. Benni McCarthy is out so Santa Cruz and Roberts will lead the line.
A comfortable home win should be in order here.

Blackburn –1.75 (1.98 @ bet365) 5 points

Wolves V Plymouth

Wolves look like serious nap material for me. I was at Molineux last week to see them beat Cardiff 3 – 0 and even though they didn’t play exceptional in any way they still showed enough desire to take 3 points.
In many ways this game is very similar. Wolves need the win badly whereas Plymouth are floating in mad table and planning the summer holidays. 3 points will take Wolves into the playoff zone but only if other results go their way.
With a pretty much full strength squad to chose from at home its hard to look past a home win here.
Plymouth are in 10th place and secure for another season. With little to play for here except pride its hard to see them crashing into 50/50 tackles with 100% commitment. However they are payed to do their job so it will be far from a walkover for the home side. The Pilgrims have actually been quite decent on the road with 8 wins but they have been conceding goals and lowly Coventry hit them for 3 a few weeks back.
A 1- 0 or 2 – 0 home win for me and the home side will just about do enough to give them a shot at the playoffs.

PICK
Wolves (1.57 @ bet365) 5 points

Sunday picks

2008-04-20T10:31:00.002+01:00

Milan – Reggina

To say this is a season defining game for AC is quite appropriate. They must win here and nothing else will do. They face the unthinkable prospect of not qualifying for Europe and for such a big club this would be a disaster. They have 5 games to make up 7 points on Fiorentina with a game in hand and it all begins today. Anything other than 3 points will almost surely finish their season.
At the San Siro AC have been surprisingly poor with only 5 wins from 16 attempts. Only 3 teams have won fewer games at home and it’s a very strange stat for last years European champions.
Bonera and Pato are out but otherwise there is a full squad to chose from.
Reggina also are in desperate need of points but for different reasons. 2nd from bottom and every point is critical, as there are at least 6 teams still in danger of the drop. Only 7 points from a possible 48 on the road is a terrible record and evidence of why Reggina are so low in the table. Still no win and it’s a big ask to beat Milan on their own turf
Montiel and Cascione are the only absentees.

Verdict
Both need the points but in terms of quality Milan have the advantage. Not to qualify for Europe is unthinkable and it could all come down to today. The Milan players have all played on the big stage before so the pressure of today’s task should not faze them. Time to stand up and deliver.
Milan to win 2 – 0 for me

PICK

Milan –1, -1.5 ( 1.7 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Saturdays picks

2008-04-19T10:38:00.002+01:00

Fulham V Liverpool

This is a very tricky game for Liverpool here and the odds on their win have been rising all week. Since Everton lost to Chelsea on Thursday night the need for 3 points is not as great and they can afford the luxury of resting several key players. Torres is out and Benitez looks to give Crouch a run. Reports suggest Gerrard is also to be rested owing to a neck injury and without these two Liverpool are severely lacking in creativity.
It’s now or never for Fulham. 2nd from bottom with 4 games to save their season. They gave themselves a huge chance beating Reading away last weekend so confidence will be up. They also have beaten Liverpool on the last 2 trips to Craven Cottage so wont be one bit in awe of their opponents. Relegation would be a disaster for the club as they don’t necessarily have the fanbase or financial backing to insure that they can come back up to the premiership. It’s a case that if they go down then it may be a very long time before they reappear so a win here is crucial.

Verdict
Fulham have huge motivation for this one whereas Liverpool can afford to take their foot off the pedal. They have a season defining game against Chelsea next week and if I were a liverpool player then that is where my priorities would lie. The odds on Fulham are worth a shot in the circumstances, draw no bet in the even of a stalemate.

PICK

Fulham draw no bet (2.63 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Arsenal V Reading

Probably not a very original pick but I watched Reading last week and they were truly awful. They couldn’t pass it, there was no spirit and they never threatened Man City’s defence at all. Kevin Doyle hasn’t scored for months and they look pretty clueless up front.
Wenger has described the last few days as the worst of his Arsenal career. They crashed out of the champion’s league and despite playing well lost 2 – 1 to Man Utd last week ending any hopes of silverware. It may be beyond reach at this stage but 2nd place is still the target and Arsenal are desperate to get back to winning ways if only to restore a little credibility and confidence. If there is any consolation for Arsenal it is that they played exceptionally at times against both Liverpool and United, but had very little luck and were undone by some poor refereeing calls and some poor finishing. Interestingly they haven't won a League game at the Emirates since February 11th and are under pressure to give something back to the home fans.

Verdict
Reading need a result but I don’t think they are capable of threatening Arsenal. The Gunners need a win badly and should pass Reading off the field. If they convert even a quarter of the chances they will create then this should be comfortable.

PICK
Arsenal –1, -1.5 (1.8 @ betdirect) 6 points

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Wigan V Tottenham

Huge game for Wigan here. 3 points and they have one foot on safe soil. 1 points or a defeat and they are going to go down to the wire. Their recent home form is saving them and they are undefeated in 5 including a draw with Arsenal. The main reason they are so good at home is because of their pitch. For those of you who don’t know, they share their field with the rugby team and it is in appalling condition to say the very least. Teams can’t get any rhythm or movement going there and it is very difficult to string passes together.
Tottenham are a pacy side who rely on speed and a crisp passing pattern to cut through opponents. The field will not suit their style. They have taken their foot off the pedal in recent weeks and have very little to play for at this stage as a European spot is out of reach. With little or no motivation apparent it’s hard to see them getting a result. However they are capable of scoring goals at any time so always remain a threat. But and it’s a big but, their defence can be laughable sometimes and its no coincidence that they have the most goals per game ratio. Only 3 sides have conceded more than them.

Verdict
I see a home win here as they are more focused and have more to play for. As I said though Spurs attack always posses a threat so maybe draw no bet is the best option still at very nice odds.

PICK
Wigan DNB ( 1.85 @ game bookers) 7 points

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Southampton V Burnley

The hosts are in severe need of points here today and their recent good home form should be enough to see off a Burnley side who are settled nicely in mid table.
Southampton have picked up the tempo a little and are 4 home games, the last outing being a deserved 2 – 0 win over promotion contenders Bristol City. They have tightened up in the defence and look to keep a 4th consecutive clean sheet at home today.
Burnley are floating kind of aimlessly in mid table. They have lost the last 5 on their travels and appear to bethinking of their summer holidays already. Coming into this game in that form against a more motivated team then its hard to see any reason to side with the visitors.

Verdict
Southampton appear to have all that is needed today for a win. Motivation, better form and a tough team to play on their own patch. Home win

PICK
Southampton win (1.91 @ boylesports) 5 points

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Rochdale V Morecambe

The hosts are in fine form at the moment and can consolidate a playoff spot with a win today. At home they are banging goals in for fun and have scored 20 goals in the last 6 home games.
With Wycombe still searching for that last playoff place Rochdale are not yet home and dry so 3 points is still a requirement.
Morecambe are playing for nothing other than pride as they are out of reach of the playoff spots and their season is pretty much finished. Sitting in 10th spot they can be pretty content with their season so far but will probably see their away form as where they slipped up and they are winless in the last 5 on the road.

Verdict
Motivated against a team with little to play for. Home side are scoring freely and Morecambe have not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games.

PICK
Rochdale (1.62 @ centrebet) 6 points

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Nottingham Forest V Luton

Not much to say about this one. Forest can confirm their playoff spot with a win here today. More importantly the two sides above them Carlisle and Doncaster both have tricky ties today so 2nd place is still very much within their grasp providing they win today. This should provide enough motivation for the them, as they would much prefer to go up automatically instead of the lottery that is the playoffs.
Luton are down and out and already preparing for next season. Their away record (1 – 5 – 15) says it all really and they are only playing for pride. 1 clean sheet in the last 13away outings doesn’t inspire much confidence and they will be looking to get the year over and done with as soon as possible.

PICK
Forest – 1, -1.5 (1.9 @ vcbet) 5 points

Eircom League tonight

2008-04-18T18:07:00.000+01:00

Cork City V Finn Harps

Theres a huge gulf in class here and Cork should be more than able to take 3 points tonight. Cork City are one of the top 3 sides in this division and are traditionally strong at home. After a poor start to the campaign they have finally found their form with back to back wins over UCD and Galway Utd.
Finn Harps are located in the very North of Ireland and because of this they have many long journeys to deal with. Their squad is not as strong as others and they often struggle on the road. On home turf they are a different prospect and this is where they will pick up the majority of their points.

Verdict
This is as far a journey as Finn Harps will have to make this year and its hard to see them getting any result from the trip. Everything points to a home victory and I think they will do so with a bit to spare

PICK
Cork City –1 (1.81 @ mansion) 6 points

The Glasgow derby

2008-04-16T16:56:00.001+01:00

Celtic V Rangers

I’m not even going to begin dissecting the ins and outs of this game as it would take too long. It’s a very hard game to call for one simple reason, Celtic have to win. As with any team who have to win the longer the game goes on without a goal then the more adventurous they have to get. This kind of play can be effective if they score but can also be a disaster if they are caught on the counter attack. That’s why this game is far too risky to pick a winner in. Both are capable teams on their day but Rangers are playing much better this year and look set to take the title back to Ibrox. Celtic’s defeat at home to Motherwell almost 2 weeks ago typified their season. They are too inconsistant and have dropped points to too many of the “weaker” sides this year.
Anyway, these derby games usually make for very interesting viewing and have a habit of producing the unexpected, hence why its hard to find a decent betting angle.
I think the game will be very tight and expect a cautious approach from celtic. They have to score but to concede first will be a complete disaster. I think it will be at least the 60th + minute before the game opens up and up to then may be a bit of a bore.
Only one bet appeals to me for this one and that’s for the HT to be a draw. I think its worth a shot for small stakes. The HT draw is available at a best priced 2.1 and for the more adventurous its 2.75 (expekt) for a 0 – 0 HT score.

PICK

Celtic V Rangers – HT draw ( 2.1 @ bet365) 3 points

Sunday action

2008-04-13T14:53:00.001+01:00

Manchester United V Arsenal

Dam it ive been mulling over this pick for ages and finally decided to go with it.
As an Arsenal fan im gutted with how the season has turned out for us. Tired legs I guess as the squad is just 3 – 4 players short of the real deal. However onto today and I just cant see us getting anything from the game. Flamini is out injured and he is a huge loss to the midfield battle. Fabregas looks dead on his feet at the moment and is badly due a good rest. Man Utd had the luxury of resting Ronaldo, Rooney and Scholes during the week demonstrating their squad dept and this will be crucial to their success today.
Old Trafford is a hard place to visit at the best of times and the Gunners were thumped 4 – 0 there in the FA Cup not so long ago. 15 wins from 17 is a remarkable stat and shows their dominance there. They have 6 clean sheets in the last 7 and the return of Gary Neville is a further boost to them.
Arsenals title challenge has all but gone in my opinion. People will say that there is still an outside chance but lots of results need to work in their favour and it just aint going to happen.
Recent poor results against Boro, Birmingham Wigan and Chelsea have done nothing for their confidence and mentally they look shattered.

Verdict
I feel like im rambling a little so il just cut to the chase. Man Utd will be fresher, more focused and have better attacking options for this game. If they want to then this could be a rout. Arsenals defence is shockingly poor at the moment and Senderos could be taken to the cleaners today

PICK
Manchester United (1.83 @ paddy power) 6 points

Saturday action

2008-04-12T13:28:00.000+01:00

Bristol City V Wolves

It would appear that Bristols luck has finally worn out and what better time to oppose them than today with the visit of an inform Wolves side. This is the case of two teams in very different form asWolves are making a late charge for the playoffs while Bristol seem to be doing their best to mess it up. Luckily for them some of the other teams knocking at the door are also slipping up so promotion places are still very much up for grabs.
Bristols recent form has seen then take 1 win from 7 and at home two wins from the last 5. In stark contrast Wolves have won 4 of the last 5 away and seem to have finally clicked. The goals are flowing for them and Ebanks-Blake is in top form .
Facing a home side that look like their luck has run dry wont faze them one bit and Mick McCarthy will have his team fired up.

Verdict
The selection of Wolves has more to do with their excellent recent form than anything else. They are coming to the boil at exactly the right time and are my pick to make it through the playoffs. Draw no bet as caution but I really like a Wolves win here today. Im not big into backing away sides in general but their away form is too good to ignore

PICK

Wolves draw no bet (2.2 @ bet365) 6 points

Saturday plans

2008-04-05T12:40:00.001+01:00

Man City V Chelsea

Normally I wouldn’t be so keen to follow an odds on shot away from home but even with a make or break tie against Fenerbache coming up, Chelsea have enough strength in dept to win this one.
Despite losing 2 – 1 midweek Chelsea created enough chances to win and if they are half as creative today then then they should win.
Man City started the season off very well but have since faded away and have only taken 9 points from the last 30 which says it all really. Their football has become a bit disorganised and it looks a little like their players have lost focus. Chelsea tend to do well against City and already beat the 6 – 0 earlier in the season.

Verdict
No matter what side Grant choses to put out he has enough quality on the bench that would shame other teams. He will want his side to go into next Tuesdays game on the back of a win so we should see a motivated Chelsea side today.

PICK
Chelsea –0.5 (1.74 @ mansion) 5 points

Carlisle V Yeovil

Carlisle’s promotion chances took a huge dent with the 2 – 0 reverse to Nottingham forest midweek but today they have a great chance to put it all back on track.
Despite that loss their home record is amazing with 16 wins from 19 attempts and they will be keen to get back to winning ways.
Yeovil really struggle on the road and this trip is not what they need right now, they have failed to score in the last 5 away games and face a Carlisle side that have kept 10 clean sheets at home.

Verdict
Carlisle will be determined to get back to winning ways and luckily for them they face a side who are just awful travellers. Carlisle to win here

PICK
Carlisle win (1.59 @ pinnacle) 5 points

Wednesday night review

2008-04-01T22:22:00.002+01:00

Where to start. Sincere apologies to anyone who followed. For some strange reason the first bets of the calender month always do badly. I have a system designed to pick in form home/away teams and it has worked fairly well up until the last few weeks for some reason, hence where the Carlisle and Doncaster picks came from.( i dont guess in case your wondering!) More annoyingly is the fact that Gillingham also qualified for tonight but i left them out as i figured i had enough selections.
For tomorrow i think i will keep my ideas to myself and play small as i dont wish to lose money for others. I shall be back at the weekend.

League action tonight

2008-04-01T11:21:00.000+01:00

Sheffield Wednesday V Coventry

It’s all to play for in this battle to avoid the drop. A win for the home side here will bring them level on points with the visitors.
Coventry have pulled away slowly from the dropzone with some excellent home displays but on the road they have been poor. Their last win came way back in early December and they have really struggled to score with just 3 goals in the last 9 away games.
Sheffield Wednesday are leaving it late and know that defeat tonight will be a disaster. Their home form has been ok considering some of the opposition they have had to face recently, Stoke, West Brom Cardiff and QPR have all been recent visitors and have been made to work hard for a result and a few of them have left empty handed.

Verdict
A real close encounter is to be expected. The result is critical for both sides and im swaying for the home side here. Their recent performances against better opposition have been notable and Coventry are not the best travellers. Home win draw no bet is my choice, as I really can’t see Coventry leaving with 3 points.

PICK
Sheffield Wednesday – Draw no bet (1.62 @ bet365) 5 points

Carlisle V Nottingham Forest

With a home record of 16 wins from 18 attempts its hard to see why bookies are offering 2+ for Carlisle here. Fair enough Nottingham are not so far behind in the league standings but one look at their away record doesn’t inspire much confidence in them. Just 2 wins in the last 11 against a side who have won 14 on the trot. Carlisle and Doncaster are fighting it out for that second place behind Swansea. Carlisle have 3 points more with a game in hand so another win tonight could possibly see them make a late charge for the title. At home they ooze confidence and Brunton Park has become a real fortress. Both sides have a few injury worries to contend with as Carlisle plan without Scott Dobie, Danny Graham, Jeff Smith, Joe Garner and skipper Paul Thirlwell.
Forest must do without Kris Commons, Davies and James Perch.

Verdict
While both are missing a few players I think the advantages still lie with Carlisle and with that home record as impressive as it is they have to be backed.

PICK
Carlisle –0.5 (2.21 @ canbet) 4 points

Doncaster V Leeds

The last of my Tuesday previews and once again I can only guess that the bookies are pricing this one up on reputation rather than current form and ability.
Doncaster are 14 points ahead of the visitors and have won 5 of the last 6 at home. Leeds have won 2 of the last 10 away from elland road and even failed to beat bottom side Port Vale last time out.
For Doncaster Sean O'Driscoll has no new injuries to worry about with Greer the only absentee.

Leeds United defender Rui Marques and midfielder David Prutton are both out after picking up knocks.

Verdict
Not one of my more detailed previews but I think that the bookies have made an error here in offering such good odds for the home side. Their home form compared to the away form of Leeds only points to one thing. Leeds have struggled a little because they are such a big club and every team wants to beat them. Doncaster already won at Elland road and should complete the double tonight. They need the win to keep up the fight for the second automatic promotion spot and wont give anything away softly tonight.

PICK
Doncaster win (2.26 @ pinnacle) 4 points

Champions league Tuesday night

2008-04-01T10:19:00.000+01:00

Roma V Manchester United

This is a hard one to call with Totti out. On one hand people will tell you that he goes missing in the big games and that he wont be missed, however I think he’s been pivotal in their good form of late and think he will be missed. This is the fifth time these two have met inside the last 12 months so they should be somewhat accustomed to each other at this stage.
Roma’s league run has had much success owing to their home record where they have 12 wins from 15 attempts. They now have 11 consecutive wins at the Stadio Olimpico scoring 23 and keeping 7 clean sheets in the process. They progressed to this round after beating Real Madrid home and away 2 – 1 on both occasions with Daniele De Rossi and Alberto Aquilani both impressing.
Francesco Totti is out with a thigh strain but De Rossi and Vucinic, who will take Totti’s place return from their suspensions, while Perrotta is suspended.
Manchester United have been in tremendous form in the last few months and it would take a brave man to bet against them winning the League title again. They cruised past Aston Villa 4 – 0 on Sunday and in truth it could have been 10 – 0 as they created so many chances. They seem to have everything in their favour for this one as they have all their big guns available and Ronaldo, Rooney are in excellent form. Despite an early season blip United have been just as dominant away from home and have 6 wins from the last 8 outings. Theres a real belief that this is the year that they can recapture the Champions league title and it will take a big effort to knock them out.

Verdict
I feel that Man Utd will be happy here with a draw as they should definitely be too strong on their own patch in the second leg. Roma are good in front of home fans but without Totti its very hard to see them break down a tough United defence. United would be happy to take a draw here and finish the job back in Old Trafford and this is how I see this one panning out. 1 – 1 would be a good result for Manchester as they would have an away goal. Personally il be having small stakes on the 0 – 0 and 1 – 1 scorelines and the draw as my selection.
Good luck

PICK
Roma/Manchester United – draw ( 3.1 @ paddy power) 3 points

Shalke 04 V Barcelona

It seems that when the draw was made for this round that everyone wanted to get Shalke. As time has progressed though now is the best time to play Barca as domestically they have been having trouble, especially away from home. With just 4 wins away from Camp Nou all season and just 1 win in the last 6 they have slipped back to third and have been overtaken by Villareal. They were 2 – 0 up at Betis on Saturday before eventually going down 3 – 2 and the fickle fans are getting restless.
Ronaldinho, Deco and Lionel Messi are all still out and Etoo faces a late fitness test.
So what they don’t need right now is an away tie to a somewhat unknown force. With three wins and a draw in their last four matches Shalke will go into this one fully confident of causing an upset. They have very little to lose and as ive mentioned this is the best time to be getting Barcelona to visit. They have scored in all but two home games this year and with Kuranyi and Altintop ready to go, it could make for an interesting night.
Jermaine Jones is suspended and Albert Streit and Ivan Rakitić are both out with injuries so a bit of re-jigging is needed to the midfield.

Verdict
Why not a home win? The home side will come out to win this one and I would never consider backing Barcelona without Messi, Deco or Ronaldinho. The atmosphere should be very intimidating and this could be one of those great European nights. I think the match has been priced up on reputation rather than recent form and ability and im siding with Shalke here.

PICK
Shalke win (3.75 @ expekt) 3 points

Real Madrid V Sevilla

2008-03-30T19:27:00.000+01:00

As soon as you see some fixtures you immediately think of goals and this one is no different. What really helps my chances here apart from the obvious goalscoring talents of both teams is the fact that I really fancy Sevilla to get a good result here. It’s a crucial time of the year for them and they badly need a win to help their chances of a top 4 finish. Barca have slipped up in the title race and allowed Villarreal to sneak back into it so there could be a few twists yet.
Reals home form reads with 12 wins from 14 attempts and their games have averaged 3.6 goals at the Bernabeau. They have a few injury worries in the defence which means that Heinze will be pushed into the middle which I cant say will suit him. At the best of times their defence looks suspect and its very hard to see them keeping Kanoute and Fabiano out.
Pepe is ruled out through injury as are Metzelder and van Nistlerooy.
Likewise Sevilla have a few problems in their defence also. Their away games have averaged over 3 goals a game also and they are a team that simply outscores other teams, even if they concede one or two goals. Kanoute is playing very well at the moment and Capel has also shone in the last few weeks especially. Losing to Atletico Madrid last week was a setback but they often keep their best performances for Real and will not be one bit afraid of taking the game to the hosts here. They have won the last 3 meetings between the two with an impressive goals difference and the pressure is on Real tonight as the fickle home fans are starting to lose patience. Ivica Dragutinovic (injury) and Maresca (suspension) are the only absentees

Verdict
I see plenty of goals coming here and hopefully an exciting open attacking game. For a fixed bet before the game starts il be taking over 3 goals. Il also be laying Real and taking that one in play.
Good luck!

PICK
Over 3 goals (2.09 @ canbet) 5 points

Saturday Football picks

2008-03-29T12:46:00.005Z

Portsmouth V Wigan

I know it’s easy to say at this stage of the year that every game is critical for both sides and the same can be said here. Pompey need the three points to keep their European challenge going whereas Wigan need 3 points for different reasons at the foot of the table.
Portsmouth are a tricky team to call. Either very hot or very cold. Their home form has been patchy but they are unbeaten at Fratton Park in the last 5 and showing signs of improvement. Jermaine Defoe has been a real boost to them and they will look to him again today to keep up his great strike rate. He missed last weeks clash with Spurs due to a clause in his contract so expect him to be raring to go today. 3 successive wins has put Portsmouth into 6th place and they will be trying to keep the pressure on Everton with another win today.
Wigan have given themselves a fighting chance of survival with good results against Bolton, Man City and Arsenal but it is their away form that is really hurting them. Just 1 away win (at Derby) and a shocking defensive record in which they have conceded almost 2 a game has done them no favours. Despite the arrival of Marlon King they have found goal hard to come by with only 1 in the last 4 away outings.

Verdict
Portsmouth just have too much firepower for this Wigan side. I do think they will stay up but wont have any satisfaction here today. It may also be worth a few bob to have Defoe as a first goalscorer.

PICK
Portsmouth win ( 1.8 @ expekt) 5 points
Defoe 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ bet365) 1 point

Coventry V Plymouth

Coventry’s recent home form has really pulled them out of a rut and given them a great chance at surviving the drop. Unbeaten in the last 6 with 6 clean sheets to their name they have become a much more organised defensive unit. On the road it’s a little different but for now we’ll concentrate on that home record.
Chris Coleman has done an excellent job since his arrival and has them working together. As I mentioned their success has been based around a tough backline which has proved hard to break down. The question is can they keep out Plymouth. The Pilgrims look set for a playoff spot and they too have being playing some decent football in recent times. On the road though they have only scored in 3 of the last 8 attempts and without Peter Halmosi, missing through suspension, it’s very hard to see where that creative spark will come from.

Verdict
Im torn between two bets here at pretty much the same odds. The two im stuck on is Coventry draw no bet as I feel there is the threat of a 0 – 0 draw. The other im stuck on is under 2.5. Coventry have a great defensive record but are not the best at scoring.
Unders is what il go with. Maybe a small punt on 1 – 0 to the home side is also worth a shout.

PICK
Coventry V Plymouth under 2.5 goals (1.67 @ betdirect) 4 points
Coventry 1 - 0 win (4.5 @ expekt) 1 point

Bournemouth V Millwall

Another home side that have played well at home recently and have a very slim yet possible chance of surviving. They have just gone after every game and played like it were their last and have looked a little more composed. More importantly they have been scoring goals and giving themselves a fighting chance. It was always going to be an uphill battle after having 10 points deducted from them but they are 4 games unbeaten at home now and really having a go at it. A 2-1 victory over play-off chasing Tranmere on Monday means that Bournemouth have won seven of their last 11 home matches, a very impressive stat.
Millwall had back-to-back away wins over Swansea and Yeovil but have failed to win in the three games since then. A goalless draw against Luton was a poor result for them. It still looks like they will beat the drop but there may be a few nervous times ahead and they wont get any loose change from Bournemouth today.

Verdict
Millwall have only kept 4 clean sheets from 18 in 2008 and given the scoring form that the home side are in its hard to oppose them. This match is critical for the home side but the draw is my biggest worry i think so it may be wiser to take them level ball

PICK
Bournemouth +0 ( 1.82 @ canbet) 5 points

Luton V Crewe

It would appear that Luton are heading for the 2nd division again. A squad lacking in numbers and off the field problems have ruined their season. Despite a battling 0 – 0 draw at the Den on Easter Monday things look bleak. Their recent home record looks ok mainly due to a 3 – 0 win over Oldham but on closer inspection you would find that on that day Oldham were struggling badly for numbers due to injuries and suspensions and never really travelled with any hope. Other than that 4 defeats in 7 has more or less sealed their fate.
Crewe on the other hand are much different. A run of only two defeats in the last 10 games has given them a massive chance to escape relegation for another year and they were most unlucky not to collect all three points against Walsall on Monday conceding in the 94 th minute to draw 1 – 1
Their away form has been most impressive and they are unbeaten in the last 5.

Verdict
It may be short but I think Crewe have the edge here and would sooner have my money on them. Luton are hard to predict but seem to be going through the motions at the moment and have possibly accepted their fate. A Crewe win or draw is my choice here.

PICK
Crewe 0, +0.5 ( 1.76 @ canbet) 4 points

Chester V Stockport

The home side are in a bit of dissaray at the moment and have lost 8 of the last 9 at home failing to score in 7 of them! On the road they have also lost 4 on the trot so they are a team bang out of form and have to be opposed.
They may have stopped the rot with a 2 – 1 win over Darlington last week but that will only focus the visitors even more in my book as they wont take the 3 points for granted.
Stockport are a team in tremendous form and have put together a nice little run of 3 pointers. On the road they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 8 of those. They were held 0 – 0 by Wycombe last week and I feel that maybe a little complacency had crept in but that was still a good result for them.

Verdict
Two teams in vastly contrasting form. The away side are winning for fun and look good to get another win.
The home side are bang out of form at the moment and have achieved better results away from home this year. I don’t see any reason to back them.

PICK
Stockport win ( 2 @ Betfred) 4 points

League 1 on Easter Monday

2008-03-24T13:42:00.002Z

Carlisle V Northampton

A win tonight will move Carlisle to within 4 points of top placed Swansea pending other results. Swansea have dropped points in recent games giving a chance for their close opponents to close the gap.
Brunton Park has been a fortress with 15 wins from 17 attempts, a truly remarkable effort. A win tonight will make it 14 in a row and they have 9 clean sheets to their record. With 7 defeats away from home it is that remarkable home record that is keeping their title challenge alive. Manager John Ward has no injury worries to contend with and looks likely to start with the same side that beat Leyton Orient last weekend.
Northampton sit in 12th spot and are still in with a shot at the playoffs. Their recent form has good of late taking some decent results against out of sorts Swansea but were beaten 2 – 1 at home to Nottingham Forest. 11 points from the last possible 18 away from home is a good return and they have based their success on good defensive play. Manager Stuart Gray has injury concerns regarding Chris Doig, Brett Johnson, Danny May and Mark Hughes.

Verdict
Carlisle obviously need the three points but may have their work cut out for them here. Despite the fact that they have scored in all but one of their home games tonight will be a good test of them. I still expect them to get the result but im not sure whether to go with the Carlisle win or unders. Northampton have proven to be a difficult side to beat but I think Carlisle will have enough to eventually get the better of them. Carlisle to win 1 – 0

PICK
Carlisle win (1.8 @ betfred) 6 points

Doncaster V Oldham

Doncaster lost valuable points on Friday night losing 2 – 1 away to Yeovil. That makes the need for a win even far greater tonight as they look to gain automatic promotion to the championship. Their home form has been solid winning the last 4 averaging 2 goals a game. In general their home record has also been good with just 4 defeat and 10 clean sheets. Gordon Greer would appear to be the only absentee.
Oldham have felt the force of a long injury list lately and were easily defeated 3 – 0 to Luton town last weekend. Manager John Sheridan has to plan without John Thompson, Andy Liddell, Lee Hughes, Craig Davies, Lewis Alessandra, Mark Crossley but Reuben Hazell returns from suspension. Apart from their 3 – 0 win against bottom side Port Vale on March 1st they have found goals hard to come by only hitting the net in two of the last 7 games.

Verdict
Short and sweet, Doncaster need a win to get back on track and should do so with little fuss against an injury ravaged Oldham side. Oldham were made to look very ordinary against Luton town last time out so Doncaster should be able to notch up another 3 points with ease.

PICK
Doncaster (1.67 @ paddy power) 5 points

Super Sunday

2008-03-23T12:30:00.003Z

Manchester United V Liverpool

I was reading somewhere yesterday where Liverpool have not score against Man United in 3 years. If ever there was a time for them to break this trend then it could be today. A fascinating clash is in store and im really looking forward to the two games today.
From a betting perspective its very hard to see any real value in either game but I feel that both teams to score in the first game may be worth a wager.
It’s the head to head meeting of the two hot shots, Ronaldo and Torres that captures the imagination. Both are in serious form and are scoring for fun. Ronaldo has had to deal with a fair bit of criticism from his doubters who say he doesn’t do it in the big games. He has a point to prove today. Torres and Gerrard have developed a serious partnership and Liverpool fans must be already looking forward to next season where I see them as genuine title contenders for the first time in a long time.
Back to the game at hand though and it’s a hard one to call. Despite many saying this will be a low scoring affair I think the opposite. With 61 goals Man U lead the pack in the goalscoring charts. With 55 goals the Pool are not that far behind.
Manchester’s home form has been pretty impressive with 13 wins from 15attempts. However this is their first real challenge from one of the big 4 since they beat Chelsea 2 – 0 way back in September. A win today will stretch the lead out at the top and with things as tight as they are they need to take the three points on offer.
Liverpool are finally delivering some consistent displays. A win today will make it 6 in a row and make for a very interesting finish to the season. As mentioned above Torres is looking like a bargain buy and today will be a good gauge of his talent up against Ferdinand and a suspect looking Pique. At the back they are a little suspect with Hypia who can be really caught for pace at times. Javier Mascherano has being immense lately but will have his hands full if he is to stop the delivery to and from Ronaldo.

Verdict
Games have been very tight between these two in the past but finally I see there may be some value in siding with Liverpool. Over/under backers will all tell you to go with unders and its hard to argue with them as the last 5 meetings have gone under.
Overs is priced up at a high of 2.40 but for me im going with both sides to score. The reason I prefer this bet to overs is that I can see both sides scoring but as the game pushes on then both may be happy to settle for the 1 – 1 draw.
1 – 1 is my preferred scoreline for this game and il be having a wee punt on that also. Medium sized stakes for me. Good luck folks!

PICK
Manchester United/Liverpool - Both sides to score - yes (1.95 @ bet365) 3 points
1 - 1 scoreline - (7 @ unibet) 1 point

Chelsea V Arsenal

I have no bets for this game. Im going to sit down and root for the Gunners but its just too hard to call. Id love to see us winning and putting pressure on United but its a big ask. Im going to sit in peace and watch this one.
Good Luck!

La Ligo tonight

2008-03-22T18:42:00.001Z

Sevilla V Atletico Madrid

I had a pretty crappy day today but hope to get a bit of success in La Liga tonight.
Both teams are fighting for that 4th spot and it looks like being a very interesting match. Everyone seems to be on overs here and im no different. Sevilla are the kind of team that don’t worry about conceding as they score so many goals. They are second only to Real in the scoring charts yet have a poor defensive record. They have averaged 2 – 3 goals at home this season. Just 2 points separates them and their opponents tonight and there is still plenty of time to get back into the top four.
Atletico are having a fine if sometimes inconsistent season. Much like Sevilla they are in fine scoring form and have hit the net in the last 7 games. In more recent times they have had 2 important away wins at Valencia and Espanyol, two places that are never easy to visit.

Verdict
I see plenty of goals in this one. Both are noted for their attacking power and both need to good performance and a win tonight. We should see a few goals and hopefully the bet will be in well before full time.

PICK
Over 2.5 goals (1.75 @ bet365) 6 points

Saturday action

2008-03-22T13:02:00.000Z

Newcastle V Fulham

A huge game for both sides here, as relegation is a major issue for both. It’s a difficult game to call as Newcastle are in a dire run of form and haven’t won a home game since early December. Fulham haven’t won away all season though. Kevin Keegan is still waiting for that first win since taking charge at Newcastle and playing the second from bottom team is as good a chance as he is going to get. The only advantage that Fulham have is that they have actually won some games this year and taken a few draws in recent times. The return of Jimmy Bullard has been a huge boost to the club and they have actually played a bit better than their results suggest.
What to say about Newcastle? Just 3points gained in 2008 sees them in real difficulty and they could badly do with 3 points. Their defence has been a shambles and the loss of Shay Given is a big blow to them. To describe their home form should not take too long either, just 2 points taken from a possible 15 in the last 5 games, 2 scored to 9 conceded, it makes for poor reading for any fans out there.

Verdict
Newcastle have failed to beat fellow strugglers, Middlesborough, Bolton and Derby at home in the last few months. Fulham on their day are as good if not better than any of these. The Cottagers have looked to draw their games on the road and they have succeeded against the lower ranked clubs. This is a huge game for both sides and a point doesn’t really help either. Fulham beat an in form Everton last week so they definitely have a bit more in terms of confidence. Im siding with the visitors here to create a mini shock and take their first away win of the year. As Fulham have a tendency to draw games il take them level ball as insurance for small stakes.

PICK
Fulham +0 (3.4 @ paddy power) 2 points

Scunthorpe V Ipswich

Its sh*t or bust time for Scunny and they are desperately in need of 3 points today. The worst thing about their league position is that they have been playing quite well but are just lacking a little firepower, especially in their away performances.
At home they look a little better and recent wins over Plymouth, Coventry and Charlton have been massive results.
Survival is fading fast and anything but 3 points here will surely condemn them to relegation.
Ipswich are lying in 10th spot but have their sights firmly set on the play-offs. A great 2 – 0 win over Charlton last weekend will have helped their confidence but on the road they have struggled.
Just 2 wins from 19 attempts and they were hammered 4 – 1 last time out by Barnsley. They are one of the better teams in the championship when given time and space to play the ball, as they were last week v Charlton. However an away trip to a side battling for points and survival is not going to yield any time to play around with the ball and Scunthorpe’s style of play wont suit Ipswich.
Verdict
Im siding with the home side here. Their need is greater and im not so sure what Ipswich have achieved away from home to be perceived as favourites for this one. Scunthorpe have got some good results at home to beck me up here. 2.88 for the home win, though it may be tight, is too good for me to turn down.

Scunthorpe (2.88 @ bet365) 3 points

Stoke V Blackpool

Just going purely on recent form for this one. Stoke are sitting top of the pile in the championship and have been banging in goals for fun. They have scored in each of their last 8 home games and look good to take 3 points here against 15th placed Blackpool. However one look at Blackpool’s away stats suggests they will be no pushovers. They are not afraid to go forward either and 7 goals in the last 4 away games show this. In fact they have only been kept out twice on their travels so they like to score goals too. They have conceded 13 in their last 6 away games so over backers would be quite happy with their efforts

Verdict
Stoke have stumbled a bit recently and need a win here to steady the ship. I think they are more than capable but it wont be easy, they have only kept 4 clean sheets at home all season and I don’t see them holding Blackpool out. Overs looks a good call

PICK
Stoke V Blackpool over 2.5 goals ( 2.08 @ canbet) 4 points

football pick on Saturday

2008-03-15T11:43:00.003Z

Im very caught for time so previews are not available today
Picks that make the grade are as follows

QPR (1.75 @ expekt) 5 points

Coventry (2.15 @ canbet) 4 points

Cardiff (2.6 @ betdirect) 3 points

Leeds (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points

Apologies about the lack of detail for these games but these are my chosen selections for now

Six nations on saturday

2008-03-15T11:20:00.000Z

Italy V Scotland

This is an important game for both sides as Italy need to win by 5 point’s minimum to avoid the wooden spoon.
Italy have really improved this year despite not winning any game yet. Apart from that second half collapse against Wales they have battled well and hit hard. They played very well last weekend against France in Paris and were only defeated by 12 points, which is far from an embarrassment. Its also fair to say that if they worked a little more on the final pass then they could have had 1 - 2 more tries. Coach Nick Mallet has named an unchanged side for this clash with Bergamasco still suspended.
Scotland had a terrific result last weekend beating the English at Murrayfield. A poor day weather wise meant the game was a little scrappy and it all came down to kicking but the Scots wont mind that one bit. Despite that win over a very unpredictable English side I am not all that impressed by Scotland. One try in the campaign is a poor return and they have relied on frees for the majority of their scoring. They seemed to through in the towel against Ireland and they sure wont be given any respect by the Italians today. Ospreys back Nikki Walker will not be able to take his starting place on the wing for Scotland after an ankle injury flared up in training so Dan Parks will start at stand-off with Paterson on the wing Simon Danielli returns to the wing in place of Rory Lamont, who suffered a horrendous triple cheekbone fracture against England, and Fergus Thomson comes in for Ross Ford at hooker.

Verdict
So Scotland have more points on the board at this stage though I strongly fancy Italy to get the better of them today. They have a decent record against Scotland beating them in 2000, 2004 in Rome and thumping them by 20 points in Murrayfield last year.
They also met during the world cup stages where Scotland just overcame Italy 18 – 16 putting them out of the tournament.
I would imagine that this is the game that the Italians have being gearing up for all season. They knew from the start that it would be difficult with games away to Wales, Ireland and France. They ran England very close in Rome but don’t seem to have any fear of playing Scotland which should carry them through today. They made France work exceptionally hard for scores last week and should probably be able to keep a try shy Scottish side restricted to 3 pointers. If they get their handling errors sorted then they could win this easy.
Italy to win by 5 – 7 points for me.
I feel that Scotlands win over England has improved the price on Italy and only for that Italy might have been going off here at 1.75 or so

PICK
Italy –1 (2 @ bet365) 5 points

Uefa cup this thursday

2008-03-13T08:36:00.001Z

Sporting Lisbon V Bolton

After going so far in the tournament it would appear that Gary Megson and Bolton have decided that Premiership survival is now the main priority. When the first leg finished 1 – 1 Boltons dream was all but over as Sporting has that vital away goal which they deserved. Now, Megson has decided that the upcoming game with Wigan on Sunday is more important and this is reflected in the players he has rested for this game. Jussi Jaaskelainen and captain Kevin Nolan, Kevin Davies, Matt Taylor, Andy O'Brien, Ivan Campo, El-Hadji Diouf and Ricardo Gardner while Gavin McCann is suspended and Tamir Cohen, Grzegorz Rasiak and Gretar Steinsson are ineligible. That right there is some of Bolton most influential players and with all them missing you would fancy Derby County to give them a beating.
Sporting Lisbon are undefeated at home in the league and have score in each home game averaging 2 a game.
In stark contrast, Bolton are pretty feeble away from the Reebok and have lost 9 times in the premiership conceding almost 2 a game.
After more than matching Bolton in England Sporting look great value to win here. Bolton have many inexperienced players travelling and performing on a big european night away from home. Also, just a though, it must have been very disheartening for Bolton to see Everton and Tottenham to go out of the cup. Both sides are much better than Bolton and the fact is that Bolton don’t possess the quality to go any further in the Uefa cup.

Verdict
Sporting to win this with a bit to spare. They have the attacking quality to get 2 or 3 goals here. Bolton have had some notable results beating Red Star Belgrade and drawing with Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid but this is a much weaker team.
Lisbon to win with a bit to spare. They should also cover the handicap but right now im just content with the odds on the straight home win.

PICK
Sporting Lisbon ( 1.62 @ stanjames) 7 points

Wednesday night action

2008-03-11T22:51:00.005Z

Aston Villa V Middlesborough

I almost missed this game so this preview may be a little short. Two teams here in very contrasting form at the moment. Villa's last match was at the emirates where they went so close to beating Arsenal. They played some great stuff and even though im a gunner they probably deserved the 3 points. On a completely different note, Middlesborough didnt even turn up against Cardiff in the FA Cup semi on Sunday. They were outplayed and never got into the game. An area of weakness that cropped up very visably was their poor defence of set pieces and this is an area where i feel that the likes of Mellberg could well expose tonight.
Villa are pretty solid at home where they are undefeated since early December. Recent results include a 4 - 1 thumping of Newcastle and wins over Spurs and Reading.
Boro put up a good fight at Anfield a few weeks back before eventually losing out to a Torres hatrick. Relegation is still an issue for them and in the near future they have Derby at home which is a vital game. They have a tough run coming up against Arsenal , Chelsea , Tottenham and Man Utd and this may sound strange but they seem to play their best against these strong teams often frustrating them with their defensive style.
Its games such as tonight where Boro seem to lack the motivation for some reason and this is why they wont win at Villa Park. A european spot is very much the prize that Aston Villa are looking at and they should have the motivation and ability to take 3 easy points against Boro.

PICK
Aston Villa (1.63 @ paddy power) 6 points

Chelsea V Derby

If there was ever a right time to play the league whipping boys then the time is now for Chelsea. If the carling cup final defeat to Tottenham was a blow, an FA Cup exit to Barnsley was a complete disaster. There are many problems at Stamford Bridge and now the pressure is on Grant to deliver.
Chelsea have loads of attacking talent and the names roll off the tongue, a choice of Ballack, Essien, Wright-Phillips, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka, Drogba etc etc is the kind of arsenal that any team would wish to have.
Despite all the talk of the title being between Arsenal and Chelsea people must realise that Chelsea are only 3 points off Man Utd if they win here so its all to play for yet.
Derby on the other hand are heading for the championship and for them the quicker it comes the better. In more recent times they have at least battled a bit better but their away form does not lie. 0 wins, 11 defeats, 33 conceded in 14 games and failure to score in 10 of those games.
Chelsea at home are undefeated at home and have 9 clean sheets to their name. The need for an impressive display is at its greatest right now and if the players have any belief in Grant then they should take care of Derby with ease. In Derby’s 3 away games with the remaining of the “big 4” they conceded 15 goals. I don’t expect it to be anywhere as easy as that for Chelsea but they should still win.
Odds of 1.10 for the home win is only for the big hitters and there are various handicaps out there but the best value in my opinion is Chelsea to win both halves. For that bet to win, all Chelsea need to do is score in both halves, as I don’t see Derby scoring at all. The price of 1.91 at bet365 represents great value in my opinion and that’s my choice for this game.

Pick
Chelsea to win both halves (1.91 @ bet365) 5 points

More Tuesday night football

2008-03-10T23:53:00.003Z

Theres a full bill of games to chose from tonight and plenty of good value out there.
Looking through the championship and theres actually nothing that interests me. So I shall skip straight to the first division where there are a few mismatches.

Carlisle V Luton

There is a serious gulf in quality between these two sides.
Carlisle are fighting it out with Doncaster for 2nd place and with Doncaster having a seemingly easy tie at home to Gillingham, 3 points here is crucial. Carlisle have a home record to be proud of, 14 wins from 16 games shows just how dominant they are at home. That’s 12 wins on the trot now and surely a record for them. Teams for some reason just don’t like to go there and Carlisle have kept 9 clean sheets at home.
Luton on the other hand seem resigned to relegation. 11 points from safety and they have lost 5 on the bounce away from home failing to score in the last three. At home it is not much better where they have failed to win since New years day. It’s hard to imagine that two years ago to the very day that they were comfortably mid table in the championship. How they have fallen.

Verdict
Im not going to go into this one too much more. Team with a tremendous home record averaging 2 goals a game at home against a doomed side with a bare squad who have failed to score in the last 3 away. Carlisle cannot afford to slip up here and should win comfortably.

PICK
Carlisle –1.25 ( 2.05 @ mansion) 6 points

Doncaster V Gillingham

Another seemingly one-sided affair. Doncaster must view this game as a must win because they know that Carlisle will win also tonight. Apart from that slip up to Swansea a few weeks back, Doncaster’s home form has been very good in recent times. 6 wins from the last 7 and 4 clean sheets in that period. Their overall play has been good with plenty of wins but being 8 points behind the league leaders with a game more played look like they will have to be content with aiming for second spot.
It would be hard to make a case for backing the visitors so il let the numbers do the talking, 14 defeats on their travels and 43 goals shipped in 18 away games. They tend to do their best work at home and 6 successive defeats on the road wont do much for their confidence. Neither will the fact that they have conceded 12 in the last 3 away games. They really are in terrible form away from home and going to Doncaster is not the place to try and get things back on track. A relegation battle is looming

Verdict
A win is crucial for the home side and if they play to their potential should get it without breaking too much of a sweat.

PICK
Doncaster –1asian hdcp (1.78 @ mansion) 6 points

Crewe V Port Vale

The reason this one jumps out at me is because of Vale's poor away form. Sure this is a local derby and anything can happen but take Port Vale out of their home patch and what do you find? 8 successive defeats, 15 games since a clean sheet and almost 2 goals conceded per game, the 2nd worst defensive record in the league away and the worst overall. 16 goals conceded in the last 6 away games.
Crewe may be in no great position either but to give them some credit their last three home games have been against Nottingham Forest, Carlisle and Swansea, that’s 3 of the top 4 right there and they managed to draw with 2 of them. That’s a tough run of games for any side and they have came out of it with immense credit.
This game is very important to both sides but realistically Port Vale are 15 points off having a fighting chance of survival and are beyond staying up. Crewe are not safe yet but have a bit more form coming into this one and if they can play the way they have in the last few games can take a vital 3 points. Not full stakes though as this is a local derby.

PICK
Crewe –0.5 ( 2.01 @ mansion) 4 points

Inter V Liverpool

2008-03-09T21:46:00.002Z

Im back! Got some winners together eventually after a poor run and i had a great weekend. Hopefully things will continue to move in the right direction and i have this one up a little early.

Inter Milan V Liverpool

Liverpool are 2 – 0 up from the first leg so what way do they approach this game? If I were Rafa I would have my team going out to play as normal and try to score a goal. That crucial away goal will send them through because if they score once then Inter will have to score at least 4 to progress and that ain’t going to happen.
Liverpool are coming into this one with high confidence after their season has gone from strength to strength. The battle to get 4th place between them and Everton is very much alive and it will be interesting to see who gets it because both are playing very well. Anyway back to the champions league. Liverpool rode their luck a little in the first leg, Materazzi was booked twice, a little harshly in my view and Liverpool didn’t really look like scoring until two late goals sealed the deal.
Inter on the other hand looked stale and didn’t really create much of note. With 10 men from an early stage it always was a mountain to climb and at 1 – 0 they would have fancied their chances but at 2 – 0 it going to be very tough.
Liverpool cant afford to sit back and defend because if they happen to go 1 – 0 down then they will be treading very dangerously. Inter cant commit to throwing everything forward either though as if they concede 1 goal then they are most probably out.
I’m not too convinced by Liverpool’s defence, lets not forget they have conceded goals to lowly Derby, Bolton, Middlesborough and a poor Reading on the road. Inter scored 9 in the San Siro in the group stages in three games and have scored in every single home game in the Seria A this year averaging just over 2 a game so I can definitely see them scoring at some stage.

Heres how I see this one panning out, a tight cagey affair for the first 45 or so minutes. Eventually Inter will have to go for goal which they will most likely get. I can see it getting a bit desperate and there will be gaps at the back. As Liverpool demonstrated against Newcastle they are well able to score on the counter attack and I can see it happening again. Torres is simply unstoppable at the moment and he and Gerrard are working well together. My pick? Both sides to score pays out at 2 @ bet365 and ive taken it a little early as I don’t see it staying that high. 1.85 - 1.9 or so would be more along the right line.
Final score will be something like 1 – 1 or 2 – 1 to Inter I feel.

PICK
Inter V Liverpool – both sides to score ( 2 @ bet365) 5 points

Sunday Fa Cup

2008-03-08T19:45:00.004Z

Some decent winners today. Some days there are strange results. I just watched the Chelsea game and cant believe that Barnsley beat them , deservingly i know but an amazing result all the same, and Manchester United!!! I was lucky enough to get a few quid on Pompey at 15 in running but that was down to luck more than anything else.
Anyway i hope that all the upsets are not over yet...

Middlesborough V Cardiff

Based on league form it would be safe to jump to the conclusion that Boro have the upper hand. Mid table in the premiership but still not quite safe from relegation.
Boro have taken 4 wins from a possible 14 at the Riverside this season and were unlucky not to take something from Liverpool last week at Anfield losing 3 – 2. Their main problem is creativity and although Downing is playing quite well, they tend to rely heavily on his delivery from set pieces to create any clear cut scoring chances.
Cardiff are on the back of a poor run in which they have failed to win any of the last 6 league games. However they have blossomed in the FA Cup and it might be fair to say that they seem to have one eye on the cup games. Despite the recent poor results they have not been playing all that badly and I really fancy them to get a result here.
A chance to play at Wembley for the semi final is a huge incentive for any team and this is the furthest Cardiff have been in the FA Cup since they became the only Welsh side to lift the trophy way back in 1927. Now they are a mere 90 minutes away from a big day out and at this stage of the competition with Arsenal and Manchster United out, anything is possible. Winning this game for Cardiff would be no more surprising than Coventry’s victory at Blackburn in the third round, Sheffield United’s success over Manchester City in the fourth round or indeed Barnsley’s shock win at Liverpool in the fifth round. Bear in mind that Cardiff are as good if not better than any of those championship sides and Middlesborough are arguably as poor as any of the premiership teams left in the cup.

Verdict
With only 4 wins at home this year Boro are far from a great home side. Cardiff have only been beaten 5 times on the road from 18 and you can expect them to be well up for this clash. I feel that this means a bit more to Cardiff and theres not a big difference between the sides in terms of ability. Given that this is a cup tie anything can happen so im siding with the visitors. They are best priced at 6 but il take them draw no bet as they have a tendency to draw away from home.

PICK
Cardiff draw no bet (4.2 @ boylesports) 3 points

Bristol Rovers V West Brom

Im approaching this one a little cautiously, as there has been so many shocks this weekend in the fa cup.
Theres a difference in class here as Bristol rovers are just hovering above the drop zone in Division one albeit with a few games in hand. The Baggies on the other hand are pushing for a place in the top flight and whether it’s automatic or via the play-offs I think they will get there.
Bristol’s results have improved over the last few weeks but a 1 – 0 defeat midweek to Doncaster highlighted their lack of creativity and firepower up front. They have based their gameplan around a good defence but it will be hard to see them keeping out a West Brom side who have amassed an amazing 71 goals in 35 league games, about two goals a game.

Verdict
West Brom have already gone to tough venues like Coventry and Peterborough in the FA Cup and won with ease. A journey to lower league opposition who struggle to score should not be too tough for them. Obviously a semi-final place is a huge incentive for both sides and with no major opposition left in the cup the Baggies will quietly fancy their chances of going all the way. West Brom to win this one for me.

PICK
West Brom -0.25 ( 1.8 @ stan james) 6 points

Saturdays football

2008-03-08T12:22:00.006Z

Im having some serious pc problems today so i havehad to borrow a laptop from a friend which im not used to and can hardly use. Unfortunayely there will be no previews today only the picks that make the grade. Hopefully il have things up and running again shortly.

Coventry (2.5 @totesport) 3 points`

Hull (1.8 @bet365) 6 points

Stoke (1.95 @bet365) 5 points

Carlisle (1.8 @bet365) 6 points

Six ntions on saturday

2008-03-08T10:54:00.005Z

Ireland V Wales

A vital game here which could yet decide just where the title goes. With one defeat already Ireland badly need to win here. Warren Gatland has had a huge influence on Wales and wins over England, Scotland and Italy have left them in a good position. However outside of that win over England i don't feel that they have been tested for the full 80 minutes yet and this could backfire on them today.
Ireland have a few positional problems with Dempsey and Murphy out as Kearney moves to full back. He may be young but is an exciting talent so his selection should not worry potential backers. Ulster's Tommy Bowe switches flanks to take Kearney's place on the left, Shane Horgan is promoted from the bench at 14.
Jones has retained his place over Hook after an impressive game in the victory over Italy - but he will have a new half-back partner. Mike Phillips has been chosen over Dwayne Peel at scrum-half as one of four changes made by Gatland. Jones returning to the second row in place of Evans after recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the win over England. Bennett returns at hooker while prop Adam Jones regains the tight-head role from Rhys Thomas.

Verdict
Ireland have had more problems in recent times than Wales but should be fired up for this one. As i mentioned before anything but a win for the Irish and their dreams are over for another year. The confidence has been restored after a decent 2nd half display against the French and a resounding win over Scotland. I do not expect the Welsh to give in as easy as the Scots or not to make as many mistakes as them either but i do expect them to get a tougher challenge than they have had to this point. I like to watch Wales play as they can create from nothing but i think the Irish have learned from the defeat to France and will be looking out for the wide expansive play and especially the threat of Shane Williams. Home advantage and Ronan O Gara's kicking should see them through by 5 - 7 points.

PICK
Ireland -3 points (2 @ bet365) 4 points

Scotland V England

Another very interesting game.
How will England react to the win over France? Im prepared to think they may be a little over confident going into this one. Here's the story of the last two game, England were magnificent against France. Scotland were rotten against Ireland. There can only be one winner right? Im not so sure, lets face it, as good as England were against France, i couldn't believe that the French continued to run the ball as it wasn't working. Time after time they ran when kicking for touch would have made more sense. Also the fact that the French had no out and out kicker meant they missed some vital frees. England sat back, played basic rugby and lapped up all the pressure for a deserved win.
Scotland on the other hand were cruel to watch against Ireland, too many basic handling errors cost them and by the end of the game they looked like they wanted to be far far away from Croke park. Do not under any circumstances expect them to give up so easy today. Playing England at Murrayfield always brings out the best in the Scots id be expecting a much more committed display today. Scotland have recalled number eight Simon Taylor for Saturday's game but there is no room for Scott Murray in Hadden's squad.
Ian Balshaw is back in the England side in place of Danny Cipriani who was dropped from the panel after some late night action on Thursday night at a night club ended his starting place.

Verdict
The 5 on Scotland is too big. This is a game that England wont have easy. They could either trounce Scotland or else as i suspect have a very difficult afternoon ahead of them. In my opinion i think that Scotland will show us today that they can play and that they are no pushovers making the English work hard for every point. Kicking will be crucial and it may come down to a battle between Wilkonson and Patterson. Im not at all convinced by Balshaw and think that he may be in for a rough afternoon if targeted by the Scots. Very tight game in store where i think taking Scotland with a 9 point start may be the way to go.

PICK

Scotland + 9 ( 2 @ bet365) 4 points

Weekend preview

2008-03-07T19:48:00.003Z

Ive got a lot to post over the next two days. Lots of football on offer and some rugby also. My rugby punting has been poorly this year so far but im fairly confident i can turn it around tomorrow. Ive a busy time of typing ahead of me so check back. At worst i shall have most of the stuff posted up early tomorrow morning, before 11 am or so.
To tonights games i decided to leave them alone. The Eircom Irish league is starting up again so we shall let that run for a few rounds before committing to any bets there. Swansea are playing Millwall tonight and will probably win but theres a few side issues in that one so its best left alone.
As i stated earlier the blog numbers are badly in need of an updating but my schedule is crammed at the moment.
Anyhow, check back later if you wish to view the weekends picks.

Uefa cup this thursday

2008-03-06T17:50:00.007Z

Rangers V Werder Bremen

Important clash for both sides here tonight in what will be a very cagey affair in my view. Rangers have scored more goals away from Ibrox in Europe this season and go into this game having not scored in their last three European games at home, against Barcelona, Lyon and Panathinaikos.
Rangers are in goo form at the moment and are currently on an nineteen game unbeaten run in all competitions since their Champions League defeat at Ibrox to Lyon in January.
Rangers results on the road have been a bit more impressive which leads me to believe that keeping a clean sheet tonight will be a priority for them. Away goals are crucial and if they can achieve a 0 - 0 tonight then they will quietly fancy their chances in the next leg.
Werder Bremen are currently the main challengers to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and the favourites to progress to the next round. In Diego they have one of the best playmakers around and Rangers will need to keep a close eye on him. They seem to keep their best performances for their home games and have struggled to score on the road at times with just two goals away from home in the group stages of the Champions League and a slender 1-0 victory over Braga in the last 32 of the UEFA Cup.

Verdict
I cant see too many goals in this one. rangers will be happy to prevent Werder from scoring the crucial away goal and so should defend accordingly. Werder on the other hand will seek out that away goal but will still not want to concede either as this may leave a mountain to climb for the return leg. Over the two legs i think Bremen will do enough to progress but tonight i think 0 - 0 scoreline is a good looking selection as is under 2.5 goals

PICK
Rangers/Bremen under 2.5 goals (1.86 @ canbet) 5 points
Rangers/Bremen 0 - 0 correct score (10 @ sportingbet) 1 point

Bolton V Sporting Lisbon

Tough fixture for Bolton here. il cut to the chase, Bolton knocked Athletico Madrid out in the last round but i was not at all convinced by their efforts. Tonight El-Hadji Diouf is suspended and Nolan is a big doubt so its very hard to see them scoring at all. They have drawn two blanks in their last three at home so thats more evidence of their lack of firepower.
Sporting are not a bad outfit and could go far in this tournament. They are fighting for third place in the Portuguese League behind Porto and Benfica. If you compare the two sides its fair to say that Sporting have much more experience in the line of European football and this should stand to them. Im not going to go any further into this one. Not one of the Uefa Cup matches Bolton have played in this season have given us more than two goals. In fact they have never scored more than two goals in any of their 16 Uefa Cup games over two separate campaigns so unders looks safe. However the bookies have twigged onto this and unders is as low as 1.45 in places

Verdict
I cant see Bolton scoring and its going to take a big effort to keep Sporting out for 90 minutes. With away goals critical i think if Sporting can get 1 - 0 then they will hold onto that lead as it may be enough to see them through in the next leg. As i mentioned before unders is priced too low for my liking so 1 - 0 correct score to the away side may be a better investment.

Bolton/Sporting Lisbon- Lisbon 1 - 0 correct score (8.5 @ expect) 1 point

Wednesday night action

2008-03-05T18:58:00.002Z

Porto V Shalke

I really like the look of the home side here. Porto played rather poorly in the first leg but were still only beaten 1 – 0. At home they are a different prospect and have won 10 from 11 this season scoring 24 and only conceding 1. In the group stages they beat both Marseille and Besiktas and drew with Liverpool. Overall, the Portuguese giants have only ever lost one Champions League game at the Estadio do Dragão.
Probable starting XI: Helton - Bosingwa, Bruno Alves, Pedro Emanuel, Fucile - Lucho Gonzalez, Paulo Assuncao, Raul Meireles - Lisandro Lopez, Farias, Ricardo Quaresma

Shalke know exactly what is needed to progress. Holding a 1 – 0 first leg win means that if they score one goal then Porto need at least 3 to go through. They’re away record in Europe surprised many this season with a 2 - 0 win at Rosenborg, before securing an impressive 0 - 0 draw at the Mestala against Valencia.
Despite being beaten by Chelsea at Stanford bridge they played quite well and possibly looked like they lacked the self-belief to take the game to Chelsea as they should have.
Probable starting XI: Neuer - Rafinha, Bordon, Krstajic, Westermann - Jones, Ernst - , Kobiashvili, Rakitic, Streit – Kuranyi

Verdict
Porto at home are a tough nut to crack and can mix it with the best when they play to their capabilities. Realistically this could go either way but the bottom line is that Porto have to win. If Shalke happen to score then I still don’t believe all will be lost for the home side as they are a team capable of scoring out of nothing. I think Porto have enough not only to win here but to progress to the next stage too.

PICK
Porto win (1.75 @ totesport) 5 points
Porto to qualify (2.38 @ paddy power) 3 points

Chelsea V Olympiakos

Chelsea look to be good things here. Greek sides traditionally struggle away from home and playing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is a big ask. Add in that Chelsea are finally coming to form and confidence is high after that 4 – 0 drubbing of West Ham at the weekend.
Chelsea don’t tend to give teams big beatings but here they may have to. An away goal may wreck their chances and holding a 1 – 0 lead may be dodgy. This leads me to believe that they will go out and try to get at least 2 goals or 3 just in case their usually dependable defence will be breached.
Olympiakos are in poor condition at the moment. 4 points off the top of the league and their away form is not as impressive as it has been in the past. They are struggling to create any real chances of note and to break down the Chelsea rearguard they will need to create something special.

Verdict
I just can’t see Chelsea conceding tonight and cannot see past a comfortable win. As I mentioned before a 1 – 0 lead is dodgy and they will strive to kill off this game as early as possible. I think Chelsea will be there or thereabouts come final time and can win comfortably tonight.

PICK
Chelsea –1.5 ( 1.83 @ stanjames) 6 points

Tuesday night action

2008-03-04T19:05:00.004Z

Im skipping on the champions league tonight. Going to watch and pray for an Arsenal win though.

Plymouth V Colchester United

Plymouth were well beaten at the weekend but I firmly believe they are one of the better sides in the championship. Playoff places are still within their grasp and with their decent record at home I think they can take three points here and get back on track.
With just one defeat in the last 8 home games they are a decent home side and have a good record.
Colchester are going to have to seriously turn things around to stay in the league this year. With just one win in 2008 Colchester are not in the best of shape and their squad is being stretched at the moment.
Im not going to go into this one in too much detail. Plymouth are a step above Colchester and after a poor result at the weekend will be looking to get back on track. A home tie against the bottom side should do the trick

PICK
Plymouth (1.8 @ pinnacle) 6 points

Oldham V Hartlepool

Considering the form that Oldham are in, I find the odds quite strange and had to check if I was missing something. Evens for a good side who have proved they can play to a high standard, against Hartlepool, a side with only two draws in the last 11 away games? Oldham are still in with a shot at the playoff places and need three points tonight. Since the turn of the year they have yet to lose at home and have recorded notable wins over form sides like Carlisle .

Hartlepool have conceded 3o goals on the road this season and havent kept a clean sheet since early November.

Oldham have 9 goals in the last 4 home games and all in all have improved their recent performances at home.

I cant see anything but a solid home win here and I cant skip on the price

Pick
Oldham -0.5 (2 @ canbet) 4 points