Six Nations

France V Scotland

I was waiting and waiting all week to see the lines that the bookies would show for this. They were very slow to be the first to put out prices or set the lines for the total points and total tries but bet 365 were first to take the plunge!
France were unlucky to go down in Ireland last week, they played some good open rugby, a little ill disciplined at times but nonetheless some good open play and scored some nice tries.
Both teams have made changes and the French have brought lock Romain Millo-Chluski and props Fabien Barcella and Nicolas Mas into their pack with the one change in the backs sees winger Heymans come in for Malzieu. The introduction of Heymans is good for my bet of total tries because he is a good runner and adds a good creative edge to the side. I like watching the French play, they combine a good tough scrum with hard hitting but have a lot of pace and flair on the wings and their games are usually very open and easy on the eye. Having lost one game already its vital that they win each of the remaining games and I have a funny feeling that points total might yet come into play for the winners so France will be pushing right to the end.
Scotland were a huge disappointment last weekend. The heart and passion was missing and I had hoped that they would give the Welsh a decent game and even cause an upset but right from the get go they looked in danger, in fact every time Wales went forward they looked like scoring. Scotland attacked at times but lacked the killer punch at the business end and this cost them big time. They looked a lot sharper in the final 10 – 15 minutes but this was only because Wales had introduced a few replacements and had been reduced to 14 men. Gregor Townsend has spoke this week about how the Scottish have had a good record this season regarding Scottish clubs going to France but I think he’s only trying to give his players some confidence which wont be enough methinks!
Frank Hadden has made five changes, bringing back brothers Thom and Max Evans. Thom replaces the injured Simon Webster while Max is in for Ben Cairns. The other changes see Sean Lamont make way for Simon Danielli on the other wing, Strokosch for Ally Hogg in the back row and Alasdair Dickinson comes in for fellow prop Geoff Cross.

Verdict
Both sides are coming off defeats and both have points to prove but the French are definitely the stronger team and have all the advantages. What do Scotland do? Should they take on the French at their own game and run the ball or play a possession game and rely on Patterson to gain the hard yards? Neither will work for them im afraid and their best chance is to keep the score respectable. They just don’t have the creative edge needed. France can create something out of nothing and should win this by some 18 +

PICK
France to score over 3.5 tries ( 2.2 @ paddy power) 5 points

Cedric Heymans anytime tryscorer ( 3 @ boylesports) 4 points

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Wales V England

The big news here is that Shane Williams is out wit injury but I get the feeling this might pan out better for the Welsh than the English, simply because much is being made of his absence in the media and very often players can up their performance when one of their star players is missing. Wales could have beaten Scotland by 20 + points with ease last weekend but took their foot off the pedal when the game was out of reach in the closing quarter. There will be no easing off tomorrow though you can be sure if they are in the position to do so! For the record, Mark Jones has stepped in for the injured Williams. The most interesting part of this game will be how Wales cope with the pressure of being overwhelming favourites against their old foe. Not too many times in the past have Wales been installed as 10 point favourites and only time will tell if they survive under the weight of expectation.
England were effectively handed the game last weekend as error after error from the Italians handed them easy possession and they didn’t have to dig too deep to win. Martin Johnson may have been a fine player for England but he’s finding out now that being a good player doesn’t matter in this case as the media are sharpening their knifes for him. He has made several changes for this clash with Joe Worsley has been recalled in place of Steffon Armitage, Tindall has been brought back in after missing last weeks game with a back injury whilst Ben Foden and Jamie Noon have been dropped from the panel.

Verdict
Most are predicting an easy Welsh win but its not so clear cut for me. England are still a bit of an unknown force as last weeks game didn’t show too much, if any of what they have to offer. One things for sure and that is that they wont want to be humiliated at the Millennium stadium. The pressure is more on the hosts and teams in the same position as England are now can often produce shocks. Wales to win but closer than people expect.

PICK
Wales by 12 or less (2.87 @ bet365) 4 points