Six Nations on Saturday

Ireland V England

Ireland may never have a better chance to win the six nations than they do right now. Wales losing in Paris last night was a huge bonus to Ireland and it will be interesting to see how they will react as its now theirs to lose. As I see it, this could yet come down to points if Ireland lose to Wales in Cardiff on the last day. First though we have to beat England and as always this Ireland/England clash should be good. Ireland definitely hold the upper hand in the recent clashes and England will be eager to avenge to 30-point defeat here in 2007. Ireland were impressive in their first outing against France, to be fair they struggled against Italy and the scoreline probably didn’t reflect the game as Ireland scored late tries to flatter themselves. Still it was the kind of poor performance that woke them up and they will need to be wide-awake today and not make any errors as England will pounce. As usual O Gara will have a massive influence on the game. He has got a lot of bad press in the English media down through the years and seems to save his best for these kind of games.
England really did well against Wales. Sure they lost but restored a bit of pride as they were never expected to win in Cardiff in the first place. They have showed signs of improvement but the team is changed once again disrupting things and making it harder to predict. Toby Flood comes in for Andy Goode and this means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times and used five different players in 10 Test matches. That kind of chopping and changing is not good for anyone but I do think Flood is the best man at the moment. Im not sure where Cipriani has disappeared to? Flood is the only significant change for this game. One thing England need to clean up on is their discipline, 8 yellow card in the last 3 matches and they gave away needless penalties against Wales. This kind of indiscipline will hurt them, especially if O Gara is in the mood.

Verdict
Ireland should win this but it’s hard to gauge by how much. The handicap line has moved to 8 and 9 in places and this looks about right. As I said, much will depend on O Gara, he chipped in with 15 points against France, 11 against Italy and England did give away an awful amount of scoreable penalties against Wales. Therefore il go with O Gara to score more than 12 points or more. He beat it in the first game, would have beaten it in the second game only for a silly sin bin. If he has a good day then he’s obviously strong candidate for motm too. John Hayes is making a record number of appearances today for Ireland also and if he has a half decent game could be in the running for man of the match also to mark the occasion

PICK
Ronan O Gara 12 points or more (1.8 @ ladbrokes) 4 points
Ronan O Gara man of the match (9 @ Paddy power) 1 point
John Hayes man of the match (67 @ Paddy power) 1 point

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Scotland V Italy

Surely this will be the battle to avoid the wooden spoon as neither look like picking up points in the remaining games. Scotland played above themselves in France but I still keep thinking of that terrible performance in Murrayfield against Wales on day one. No heart and no bottle that day but surely they can’t be as poor at home again? Max and Thom Evans will be very important today as they have the pace and invention to hurt Italy. Scoring tries and showing a bit of creativity has been the Scots biggest problem so far and it will be tough against a hard Italian pack today. Scotland need no reminding about the threats Italy pose as they have lost the last 2 to them.
Italy played quite well against Ireland but never really looked like they believed that they could win it. They hit hard and not always fairly but should have kept the scoreline much closer than they did. Eventually they tired and it was visible in the last 10 that they were on their last legs. It was in this time that Ireland pulled away as the Italians made poor handling errors and lost concentration. Having won in Edinburgh two years ago and with a win in Rome last season, Italy might have the belief that they don’t have against the bigger nations and they have made a few changes for the game. Marcato replaces the suspended full-back Masi while Bortolami comes in for the dropped Reato. Hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini returns from injury and should play

Verdict
If Scotland play t their potential then they could win this at a canter. Italy are not fit enough and look kind of clueless outside the scrum. The scots are not renowned as a free scoring side but its time to restore a bit of pride in the jersey.

PICK
Scotland – 8 points (1.91 @ paddy power) 4 points