Euro 2008 - Day 6

Austria V Poland

Pre tournament everybody was saying how bad Austria were and that they would be the whipping boys. On opening day they were very unlucky not to get something from the game against Croatia. The big question is, did they play above themselves? And if the answer is yes then can they do it once more. Croatia looked very tired for some reason and despite some decent scoring chances the Austrians just could not score. Striker Roland Linz looks set to miss and if he is out his absence will be a huge blow.
Poland lost the opening game 2 – 0 but were always up against it against tournament favourites Germany. They still made 2 or 3 chances and maybe if a little sharper in front of goal could have got a result. Nevertheless the introduction of Roger Guerreiro at half time brought a new dimension to the Polish attack and he looked very dangerous. I hope he is starting tonight.
A result is vital for both sides tonight but I think people are over reacting on the opening day results and not giving Poland much credit. Remember they finished above Portugal in the qualifying group so the players are there. Austria are outside the top 100 in the world rankings and even though they played well on day 1 I still think they will finish bottom of the group. A Poland win would set them up nicely for the last game against Croatia and that is how I see this one going.

Verdict
A Poland win is where I see this one going. 1 – 0 or 2 – 0 perhaps. Im quite surprised at the odds but think this is a reaction to the opening fixtures. Just because you are the home nation does not entitle you to any advantage, just ask the Swiss about last night.

Pick
Poland ( 2.32 @ pinnacle) 4 points


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Croatia V Germany

Interesting tie here, both teams were well talked as pre tournament faves. Both won on opening day but under different circumstances. Germany were their usual selves and played some good football against Poland. Croatia looked very tired and were hanging on to a 1 – 0 lead for much of the game against whipping boys Austria. Maybe over confidence or whatever im not sure but they certainly didn’t do anything to convince me they should be backed as outside favourites. Germany powered through Poland. Two goals from Podolski and in truth they could have easily had 2 or 3 more. On saying that though they left a few spaces at the back but luckily for them Poland couldn't capitalise.
Now normally I would jump on a German win here but I'm cautious for one reason. If this game is level with say 10 or 15 minutes to go then you could see both sides sit back and take the foot off the pedal as a draw is good enough for both sides. Germany face Austria in the last game so realistically have 3 points there if they want. Croatia would then head into the game against Poland knowing a draw would be enough (presuming Poland win tonight)
On that basis I think it might just finish a draw. Therefore for me the better value is to find a first goalscorer
Klose and Gomez got into enough scoring chances against Poland but unselfishly laid the ball off. I think both of them will be well up for this again tonight so will go for either of them to score first with small stakes.

PICKS
Klose 1st goal – 7 @ coral ( 1 point)
Gomez 1st goal – 7 @ coral ( 1 point)