Saturday Football picks

Portsmouth V Wigan

I know it’s easy to say at this stage of the year that every game is critical for both sides and the same can be said here. Pompey need the three points to keep their European challenge going whereas Wigan need 3 points for different reasons at the foot of the table.
Portsmouth are a tricky team to call. Either very hot or very cold. Their home form has been patchy but they are unbeaten at Fratton Park in the last 5 and showing signs of improvement. Jermaine Defoe has been a real boost to them and they will look to him again today to keep up his great strike rate. He missed last weeks clash with Spurs due to a clause in his contract so expect him to be raring to go today. 3 successive wins has put Portsmouth into 6th place and they will be trying to keep the pressure on Everton with another win today.
Wigan have given themselves a fighting chance of survival with good results against Bolton, Man City and Arsenal but it is their away form that is really hurting them. Just 1 away win (at Derby) and a shocking defensive record in which they have conceded almost 2 a game has done them no favours. Despite the arrival of Marlon King they have found goal hard to come by with only 1 in the last 4 away outings.

Verdict
Portsmouth just have too much firepower for this Wigan side. I do think they will stay up but wont have any satisfaction here today. It may also be worth a few bob to have Defoe as a first goalscorer.

PICK
Portsmouth win ( 1.8 @ expekt) 5 points
Defoe 1st goalscorer (5.5 @ bet365) 1 point


Coventry V Plymouth

Coventry’s recent home form has really pulled them out of a rut and given them a great chance at surviving the drop. Unbeaten in the last 6 with 6 clean sheets to their name they have become a much more organised defensive unit. On the road it’s a little different but for now we’ll concentrate on that home record.
Chris Coleman has done an excellent job since his arrival and has them working together. As I mentioned their success has been based around a tough backline which has proved hard to break down. The question is can they keep out Plymouth. The Pilgrims look set for a playoff spot and they too have being playing some decent football in recent times. On the road though they have only scored in 3 of the last 8 attempts and without Peter Halmosi, missing through suspension, it’s very hard to see where that creative spark will come from.

Verdict
Im torn between two bets here at pretty much the same odds. The two im stuck on is Coventry draw no bet as I feel there is the threat of a 0 – 0 draw. The other im stuck on is under 2.5. Coventry have a great defensive record but are not the best at scoring.
Unders is what il go with. Maybe a small punt on 1 – 0 to the home side is also worth a shout.

PICK
Coventry V Plymouth under 2.5 goals (1.67 @ betdirect) 4 points
Coventry 1 - 0 win (4.5 @ expekt) 1 point




Bournemouth V Millwall

Another home side that have played well at home recently and have a very slim yet possible chance of surviving. They have just gone after every game and played like it were their last and have looked a little more composed. More importantly they have been scoring goals and giving themselves a fighting chance. It was always going to be an uphill battle after having 10 points deducted from them but they are 4 games unbeaten at home now and really having a go at it. A 2-1 victory over play-off chasing Tranmere on Monday means that Bournemouth have won seven of their last 11 home matches, a very impressive stat.
Millwall had back-to-back away wins over Swansea and Yeovil but have failed to win in the three games since then. A goalless draw against Luton was a poor result for them. It still looks like they will beat the drop but there may be a few nervous times ahead and they wont get any loose change from Bournemouth today.

Verdict
Millwall have only kept 4 clean sheets from 18 in 2008 and given the scoring form that the home side are in its hard to oppose them. This match is critical for the home side but the draw is my biggest worry i think so it may be wiser to take them level ball

PICK
Bournemouth +0 ( 1.82 @ canbet) 5 points



Luton V Crewe

It would appear that Luton are heading for the 2nd division again. A squad lacking in numbers and off the field problems have ruined their season. Despite a battling 0 – 0 draw at the Den on Easter Monday things look bleak. Their recent home record looks ok mainly due to a 3 – 0 win over Oldham but on closer inspection you would find that on that day Oldham were struggling badly for numbers due to injuries and suspensions and never really travelled with any hope. Other than that 4 defeats in 7 has more or less sealed their fate.
Crewe on the other hand are much different. A run of only two defeats in the last 10 games has given them a massive chance to escape relegation for another year and they were most unlucky not to collect all three points against Walsall on Monday conceding in the 94 th minute to draw 1 – 1
Their away form has been most impressive and they are unbeaten in the last 5.

Verdict
It may be short but I think Crewe have the edge here and would sooner have my money on them. Luton are hard to predict but seem to be going through the motions at the moment and have possibly accepted their fate. A Crewe win or draw is my choice here.

PICK
Crewe 0, +0.5 ( 1.76 @ canbet) 4 points



Chester V Stockport


The home side are in a bit of dissaray at the moment and have lost 8 of the last 9 at home failing to score in 7 of them! On the road they have also lost 4 on the trot so they are a team bang out of form and have to be opposed.
They may have stopped the rot with a 2 – 1 win over Darlington last week but that will only focus the visitors even more in my book as they wont take the 3 points for granted.
Stockport are a team in tremendous form and have put together a nice little run of 3 pointers. On the road they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 8 of those. They were held 0 – 0 by Wycombe last week and I feel that maybe a little complacency had crept in but that was still a good result for them.

Verdict
Two teams in vastly contrasting form. The away side are winning for fun and look good to get another win.
The home side are bang out of form at the moment and have achieved better results away from home this year. I don’t see any reason to back them.

PICK
Stockport win ( 2 @ Betfred) 4 points