More Tuesday night football

Theres a full bill of games to chose from tonight and plenty of good value out there.
Looking through the championship and theres actually nothing that interests me. So I shall skip straight to the first division where there are a few mismatches.

Carlisle V Luton

There is a serious gulf in quality between these two sides.
Carlisle are fighting it out with Doncaster for 2nd place and with Doncaster having a seemingly easy tie at home to Gillingham, 3 points here is crucial. Carlisle have a home record to be proud of, 14 wins from 16 games shows just how dominant they are at home. That’s 12 wins on the trot now and surely a record for them. Teams for some reason just don’t like to go there and Carlisle have kept 9 clean sheets at home.
Luton on the other hand seem resigned to relegation. 11 points from safety and they have lost 5 on the bounce away from home failing to score in the last three. At home it is not much better where they have failed to win since New years day. It’s hard to imagine that two years ago to the very day that they were comfortably mid table in the championship. How they have fallen.

Verdict
Im not going to go into this one too much more. Team with a tremendous home record averaging 2 goals a game at home against a doomed side with a bare squad who have failed to score in the last 3 away. Carlisle cannot afford to slip up here and should win comfortably.

PICK
Carlisle –1.25 ( 2.05 @ mansion) 6 points



Doncaster V Gillingham

Another seemingly one-sided affair. Doncaster must view this game as a must win because they know that Carlisle will win also tonight. Apart from that slip up to Swansea a few weeks back, Doncaster’s home form has been very good in recent times. 6 wins from the last 7 and 4 clean sheets in that period. Their overall play has been good with plenty of wins but being 8 points behind the league leaders with a game more played look like they will have to be content with aiming for second spot.
It would be hard to make a case for backing the visitors so il let the numbers do the talking, 14 defeats on their travels and 43 goals shipped in 18 away games. They tend to do their best work at home and 6 successive defeats on the road wont do much for their confidence. Neither will the fact that they have conceded 12 in the last 3 away games. They really are in terrible form away from home and going to Doncaster is not the place to try and get things back on track. A relegation battle is looming

Verdict
A win is crucial for the home side and if they play to their potential should get it without breaking too much of a sweat.

PICK
Doncaster –1asian hdcp (1.78 @ mansion) 6 points



Crewe V Port Vale

The reason this one jumps out at me is because of Vale's poor away form. Sure this is a local derby and anything can happen but take Port Vale out of their home patch and what do you find? 8 successive defeats, 15 games since a clean sheet and almost 2 goals conceded per game, the 2nd worst defensive record in the league away and the worst overall. 16 goals conceded in the last 6 away games.
Crewe may be in no great position either but to give them some credit their last three home games have been against Nottingham Forest, Carlisle and Swansea, that’s 3 of the top 4 right there and they managed to draw with 2 of them. That’s a tough run of games for any side and they have came out of it with immense credit.
This game is very important to both sides but realistically Port Vale are 15 points off having a fighting chance of survival and are beyond staying up. Crewe are not safe yet but have a bit more form coming into this one and if they can play the way they have in the last few games can take a vital 3 points. Not full stakes though as this is a local derby.

PICK
Crewe –0.5 ( 2.01 @ mansion) 4 points