Six nations feast of rugby

Massive day of rugby action today


Wales V Italy

Italy have done very well in their two matches to date but a lot of it was to do with the quality of the opposition. On both occasions I think that both Ireland and then England underestimated the Italians and though they were beaten twice they did bring some respectability to their game. The Italians won’t win over too many fans with their physical approach to things but it is effective. More or less stopping the other team play free flowing rugby and putting in some mammoth hits. Italy coach Nick Mallett has made several changes to his team and has brought in Andrea Marcato in place of David Bortolussi, who is out with a shoulder problem. Canavosio and Robertson are injured while Andrea Lo Cicero has dropped to the bench. Marco Bortolami returns as a replacement.
Wales have two wins to their name but its hard to judge them just yet as they beat an England side that fell apart and a Scotland side who look like they will be happy just to avoid the wooden spoon. James Hook has been in fantastic kicking form and is proving to be very reliable from set pieces. Warren Gatland has made several changes to the side that beat Scotland naming a whole new front row, with Gethin Jenkins, Rhys Thomas and hooker Matthew Rees all making their first starts this season. Mark Jones returns to the wing instead of Jamie Roberts and Stephen Jones and Dwayne Peel will start in the half-backs.
Wales lost in Rome last season and having viewed the two Italian games so far will not be taking their challenge lightly at all. As things stand it looks like Wales will be the team to challenge France for the title and they should win today, the question is by how much? The bookies look to have got it fairly accurate with the 13 – 14 point line but I think that if Wales can play the free flowing stuff that they are capable of then they should be able to cover the spread, if only just. Kicking may be crucial to our bet today but with Hook on his own patch and in form, I feel we have a huge advantage. small stakes for me

PICK
Wales – 13 (2 @ bet365) 4 points


Ireland V Scotland

There was a sense that everything was ok in the Irish camp after coming so close to catching France in Paris in the last round but for me it was a false feeling. Lets face it, France took their foot off the pedal and made a few changes but if they hadn’t then they could have beaten the Irish by a cricket score. Ireland have fallen a way back from previous glories and the absence of Paul O Connell is a huge loss to them, in the lineout especially but more so psychologically as his presence is a big help. He’s back on the bench today so hopefully we will see him at some stage.
Anyway onto today and Eddie O Sullivan has called up Tommy Bowe to the wing. Mick O'Driscoll is also promoted to the starting line-up in place of Malcolm O Kelly where he will start alongside Donncha O'Callaghan.
Scotland also ring the changes with Scott MacLeod and Alasdair Strokosch introduced to the pack, with Rory Lamont and Simon Webster returning from injury. Paterson has been moved to stand off. Scotland have two of the together games out of the way now so in a sense they should be able to relax and play within themselves. They have some very strong physical runners and need the likes of Lamont to play well and Paterson to have his shooting boots on. Ireland for some reason don’t seem to like playing the Scots and they have done nothing in this comp to suggest that they can beat the line which is set at 12.
This could go down to the wire and for me a lot will depend on who gets the kicking right, O Gara or Paterson. I can’t see a free flowing game with too many scores so I think the best option may be under on the points total. Neither side are renowned for their high scoring games and as mentioned before I think this could all cone down to accuracy from the frees.

PICK
Ireland V Scotland total points under 39 points ( 2 @ will hill) 4 points


France V England

France were very nearly caught by Ireland after relaxing a bit once they had taken a commanding lead. Im not so sure that they will do the same today if they are in the same position. Vincent Clerc was instrumental in the last victory with three tries and his confidence will be sky high. There is a lot riding on this game tonight. Lets not forget that England knocked France out of the world cup last year at the semi final stage on their own turf, so revenge will be a factor in this. However England have gone backwards since then while the French seem to have gone from strength to strength. Lievremont has dropped several players and came into this tournament with a virtually different team than the one that competed at the world cup. So far it has worked well. Pascal Pape makes the cut today as does Morgan for the injured Jean-Baptiste Elissalde. Parra will partner Montpellier fly-half Francois Trinh-Duc who comes in for David Skrela.
England have not made too many changes, scrum-half Richard Wigglesworth will make his debut while Sheridan and Vickery return to boost the pack.
I like watching the French play, they are exciting, fast and can create a score out of virtually nothing and we have all seen them do it. England lack a real pacy man to cut a defence open and need to find a match winner like they had in Jason Robinson( easier said than done I know! )
I just can’t see England lasting with the French for this one. The line is set at 7 and I think that over two halves that the French can cover this. They just look likely to score tries out of nothing and if England let their concentration dip for two minutes at any stage then they will be caught. The French also look to be in peak physical condition and if they get in front then I don’t expect them to let up at any point.

PICK
France –7 points ( 2 @ bet365) 5 points