League 1 Saturday afternoon

Carlisle V Crewe

Fourth placed Carlisle take on 19th placed Crewe as they attempt to make it 8 successive wins at Brunton Park.

Carlisle sit in fourth position in league One and are in a great position to push for promotion. For now il concentrate on their home record as it’s important to acknowledge the fact that they seem to be a completely different team on their travels. They have been completely overpowered in the last three away games conceding 6 goals and failing to score. But at home they are a more confident side and they owe most of their seasons points tally to a tremendous record in which they are second only to Leeds in the home table chart. Nine wins from a possible 11 at Brunton Park and as mentioned before they are going for 8 in a row, which is a remarkable run for any club. Averaging almost 2 goals a game and their defence has been tight with only 7 goals conceded, the best defensive (home) record in the league.
Carlisle are pretty much at full strength apart Paul Thirwell. They also have the benefit of an extra two day’s rest as Crewe were in action on Monday night.

Carlisle’s last 5 home games

Carlisle 3 1 Leeds 03/11/2007
Carlisle 3 0 Swindon 04/12/2007
Carlisle 1 0 Leyton O 15/12/2007
Carlisle 4 2 Hartlepool 01/01/2008
Carlisle 3 2 Port Vale 05/01/2008

Crewe are on an awful run of form lately having picked up only five points from a possible twenty seven in their last nine league games. With four points between them and the relegation zone, things are tight especially as they have played a game more than three teams below them. On their travels they have only the one victory, a win which came way back in early November against fellow strugglers Port Vale. I watched them against Leeds last Monday night and although they put it up to their more illustrious opponents for large parts of the game the thing that struck me was their lack of penetration up front. They have only recorded five goals in their last seven outings with four of those coming in the one game. Their away goals tally is not too impressive either with a disappointing two goals in the last five games. With twenty-five goals scored in total only Cheltenham and Port Vale have scored less and things need to change fast in that department if they are to survive. Ryan Lowe is out as is long term absentee Billy Jones. Ben Rix and James Bailey have been sick during the week and are rated as 50/50

Crewe’s last 5 away games

Port Vale 0 1 Crewe 06/11/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Crewe 24/11/2007
Hartlepool 3 0 Crewe 15/12/2007
Huddersfield 1 1 Crewe 26/12/2007
Millwall 2 0 Crewe 29/12/2007

Verdict
Carlisle lost out last weekend to Doncaster and will be keen to get back to winning ways. Promotion is a very realistic target but it will be tough with teams such as Leeds, Swansea and Nottingham forest fighting up there also. Games such as these will determine their finishing position and I expect them to make it another home victory on Saturday against a poor travelling, goal shy side.

Carlisle 2 – 0 Crewe




Millwall V Tranmere

Millwalls fortunes have changed since the arrival of manager Kenny Jackett and they will look to push themselves further away from danger when they take on 10th placed Tranmere on Saturday.
They have got their act together and won 5 of their last 6 in all competitions on home ground. Their 2 – 1 victory over Wallsall on Tuesday night was a great result for them which brought to an end the 18 game unbeaten run held by the visitors. Sitting just three points above relegation they still have a game in hand over the teams above them and will be looking to make it count and keep their mini revival going.
Striker Neil Harris returns from suspension and Jackett has had good news with Richard,Marcus Bignot and Marc Laird, Zak Whitbread and Adrian all back in contention for a place.
Chris Hackett, Mark Phillips, Chris Day, Ahmet Brkovic and Alan Dunne are all still absent.

Millwall’s last 5 home games

Millwall 2 2 Swansea 06/11/2007
Millwall 2 1 Yeovil 24/11/2007
Millwall 2 3 Oldham 15/12/2007
Millwall 3 0 Brighton 26/12/2007
Millwall 2 0 Crewe 29/12/2007

Tranmere have been in disappointing form of late. They crashed out of the FA Cup on Wednesday night losing 2 – 1 to Hereford. They are winless in the last 5 games and haven’t won an away game in the league since the start of October.
11 points taken from a possible 39 has seen them slip as realistic title contenders to a team that would be very happy just to make the playoffs at this stage. On the road they have conceded 7 in the last 2 games but with Ian Goodison back to marshall the defence this should change. The worst stat attached to their away record is the fact that they have failed to score in 6 of the last 8 games and with leading scorer Greenacre (9 goals) set to miss out its hard to see where the goals will come from.
As mentioned already, leading striker Chris Greenacre looks set to miss out with a thigh strain as does long term absentees Chris Shuker and Steve Davies. Skipper Ian Goodison returns from suspension to lead the side out again.

Tranmere’s last 5 away games

Hartlepool 3 1 Tranmere 04/12/2007
Port Vale 0 0 Tranmere 15/12/2007
Luton 1 0 Tranmere 22/12/2007
Crewe 4 3 Tranmere 01/01/2008
Leyton O 3 0 Tranmere 08/01/2008

Verdict
This is Millwall’s fist home game of 2008 and you can expect them to get a great reception in front of their own fans. Both teams had midweek games but crucially Millwall didn’t have to travel and have an extra days rest. Tranmere had to travel to Hereford on Wednesday night and now face another journey to London.
The Den has never been welcoming to other clubs and I feel that they have enough to take three points from a tired Tranmere outfit.

Millwall 1 – 0 Tranmere


PICKS
Carlisle (1.62 @ betfred) 6 points

Millwall ( 2.25 @ betdirect) 4 points
Millwall 1 - 0 correct score ( 8 @ betdirect) 1 point