Early Saturday picks

I said id post these two picks up early and try take advantage of the prices before they drop.

Carlisle V Port Vale

3rd place Carlisle take on bottom placed Port Vale on Saturday and the Blues will look to take advantage of an FA Cup interrupted weekend and go into second spot.
Their home form has been great in recent times and they have won six games on the bounce at home and will look to keep that record going. These wins have been made more impressive with convincing displays over the likes of Leeds, Swindon and Hartlepool. Their overall home record has been good having dropped only 5 from a possible 30, with the two points dropped coming way back in September. They have scored 20 goals, which averages out to 2 goals a game and only conceded 5.
They have a full squad to chose from at time of writing.

Carlisle’s last 5 home

Carlisle 2 0 Gillingham 20/10/2007
Carlisle 3 1 Leeds 03/11/2007
Carlisle 3 0 Swindon 04/12/2007
Carlisle 1 0 Leyton O 15/12/2007
Carlisle 4 2 Hartlepool 01/01/2008



Port Vale are rooted to the bottom of league one. Their main problem has been keeping clean sheets as only 4 from 24 games will clarify. They have only picked up 4 points in their last nine away games though they have got some of the more difficult away games out of the way such as Leeds and Nottingham Forest. However results are not going there way at the moment and despite deserving something from the midweek game against Cheltenham they went down 1 – 0 which is typical of their current streak. Incidentally this will be their second away trip inside four days where Carlisle have the advantage of an extra days rest and the comfort of playing a second consecutive game without travel. In the game against Cheltenham, striker Marc Richards limped off with suspected ligament damage and his absence will be a huge blow to Port Vale.

Port Vale’s last 5 away

Oldham 1 1 Port Vale 17/11/2007
Leeds 3 0 Port Vale 04/12/2007
Gillingham 1 2 Port Vale 08/12/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 0 Port Vale 22/12/2007
Cheltenham 1 0 Port Vale 02/01/2008


Verdict

Taking into account that Carlisle are one of the strongest home teams in the league and that they have the advantage of an extra days break it’s hard to look past them for 3 points. They have beaten much better opposition at home this year. Port Vale may be better than their current position suggest but only time will tell if they can pick things up and survive. I can’t see it happening at Carlisle though.



Leeds V Northampton

Have the wheels come off the Leeds express? Two defeats on the trot, one away, and on New Years day the home record went up in smoke as they were brought down to earth by Oldham losing 3 – 1.
That completes a miserable two weeks where they only took five points from a possible fifteen, not the stuff on champions elect.
However when all is said and done I still think they are the team to beat in this division and they are only seven points off the top, albeit with a game in hand. Maybe a bit of complacency had crept in? Who know, but one thing is certain, 3 points is a must against Northampton as its vital to stop the rot and get things moving again.
Before Tuesdays unexpected blip Leeds were on the back of an impressive home streak in which they have only dropped 5 points from a possible 36 at Elland road. They have put in some dominating performances as 26 goals scored and 8 conceded would suggest.
Leeds also have a few out through injury as Radostin Kishishev and Alan Thompson limped out of the action against Oldham. Jonny Howson is also out as is long term casualty Jonathan Douglas.

Leeds last 5 home games

Leeds 2 1 Swindon 17/11/2007
Leeds 3 0 Port Vale 04/12/2007
Leeds 4 0 Huddersfield 08/12/2007
Leeds 1 0 Bristol R. 22/12/2007
Leeds 1 3 Oldham 01/01/2008

Northampton are in 16th place on 28 points. Like most sides in the division they are stronger at home and have picked up more points there than on their travels. On their day they can compete with anyone though the problem has been maintaining consistency. An example of which, a highly impressive performance against Nottingham forest in which they could have taken 3 points if not for a last minute Forest equaliser was followed by a lacklustre 2 – 0 defeat at Doncaster.
Also a problem has been their defence with only one clean sheet on the road and eight teams scoring two or more against them. If they are that careless at Elland road then they will be severely punished.
Bradley Johnson will return to the Northampton Town squad for Saturday's clash at Leeds United. He has been the speculation of a move away from the club but with nothing sorted he is free to play.
Chris Doig, Giles Coke Ryan Giligan, Ian Henderson are all injured and Daniel Jones and Poul Hubertz are both suspended.

Northampton’s last 5 away

Crewe 1 0 Northampton 17/11/2007
Swansea 3 0 Northampton 04/12/2007
Nott'm Forest 2 2 Northampton 15/12/2007
Doncaster 2 0 Northampton 26/12/2007
Huddersfield 1 2 Northampton 29/12/2007


Verdict
3 points are crucial for Leeds. They have a few injury worries to contend with but they are much better than they showed on New years day and you can be sure Dennis Wise will have them pumped up for this one. Northampton can be tough on their day. They have demonstrated that they are capable of scoring goals so I would be a little cautious about taking Leeds to overcome a 1 goal handicap (for big stakes at least) Leeds to win 2 - 0 or 2 – 1 is my call.


PICKS
Carlisle win (1.57 generally available) 4 points

Leeds win ( 1.52 @ unibet) 4 points

Carlisle and Leeds double (2.35 @ betdirect) 6 points