An early saturday pick

First of all, apologies about last night. Shortly after posting my pick and placing my bets Kevin Keegan was unveiled as the new Magpies boss and if i had known that then i would have stayed well away.
Next up is an early value pick that I've found

Mansfield V Darlington

When looking through the coupon this game is hardly the one that jumped off the coupon for most but I think I've found some real value here with the away side.

We’ll get to Mansfield first, last week they recorded their first away win of the season with a battling 1 - 0 victory over Chester. However on closer inspection that Chester team is in somewhat of a freefall having only collected 1 point from the possible 12 before last weekend. Mansfield’s home form itself has been erratic with some excellent wins such as the 5 – 0 drubbing of Macclesfield and the 2 – 0 win over Peterborough. However, consistency has been a problem and they have lost the last two at Field Mill, the last game a 4 – 0 hiding at the hands of Wycombe. One of the reasons that I'm inclined to oppose Mansfield this weekend is because they are preparing for a FA Cup 4th round tie at home to Middlesborough, just to add to the excitement the TV cameras will be present also. The Boro game has been described as “the biggest cup match in 20 years” by Mansfield followers and manager Bill Dearden will have his work cut out for him to keep the players focused.

Mansfield last five home games

Mansfield 5 0 Macclesfield 03/11/2007
Mansfield 0 0 Bradford 05/12/2007
Mansfield 2 0 Peterborough 26/12/2007
Mansfield 1 2 Accrington Stanley 29/12/2007
Mansfield 0 4 Wycombe 08/01/2008


Darlington have pulled themselves back into promotion territory with two successive 3 – 0 wins over Bury and Morecambe respectively. After a poor Christmas period in which they only took one point for their efforts, they seem to have got a bit of momentum going again and will be keen to build on it as they go in search of a third win on the trot. Darlington have been less than impressive against some of the top teams in the division but against the lower ranked teams they have been top class. 27 points from a possible 33 against the teams in the bottom half of the table is a terrific return for any team. In fact a glimpse down through their away results and the results are impressive, averaging almost two goals a game on the road and with three 3 – 0 wins and two 4 – 0 wins. They have also taken more 3 pointers on the road so it seems they are not the kind of team to collapse when they leave their home patch. Their defensive efforts have been immense with 16 clean sheets collected to date and only five conceded in the last ten games.

Darlingtons last 5 away games

Brentford 0 2 Darlington 17/11/2007
Grimsby 0 4 Darlington 04/12/2007
Lincoln 0 4 Darlington 22/12/2007
Rochdale 3 1 Darlington 01/01/2008
Morecambe 0 3 Darlington 15/01/2008

Verdict
At the time of writing there has been 116 away wins in this league, which is, equal to the 116 home wins. The days of teams being impossible to beat on their own patch seems to be fading and in fact more and more teams look more comfortable on the road.
For me Darlington fit the bill here and with Mansfield eyeing up a possible FA Cup upset its hard to see a 100% committed performance from the home side. The 2.25 on the away side is good enough for me and I'm taking it now as I don’t see it lasting.
2 – 0 to the away side is the call


Pick
Darlington (2.25 @ VC) 5 points