Sunday football picks

Fiorentina V Cagliari

Hard to look past the home win here.
Their title hopes may be gone but theres still lots to play for in the Seria A, a place in the Champions league is now the target. The Viola have not picked up a victory in their last five matches and have a great chance to end a 2 game losing streak at home in which they lost to table toppers Inter and 4th placed Udinese.
With a Christmas break coming up 3 points is a must for Fiorentina and they have a fully fit squad to chose from.

How to describe Cagliari? A sinking ship maybe? Their manager is gone and they are propping up the table with an away record that’s as bad as their home record. Only 7 scored on the road to 16 conceded and they were turned over quite easily last week by a below par Inter Milan.

Verdict
Fiorentina really need 3 points right now and they won’t have a better chance than against Cagliari. Mutu finally hit the net last weekend and he will look to increase his goal tally. It wont be as one sided as people think though and Fiorentina will have to work hard for the win. However they should still have enough quality to cover the handicap and win 2 – 0 or so

PICK
Fiorentina –1.5 Asian hdcp ( 2.05 @ canbet) 4 points


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Barcelona V Real Madrid

One of the most anticipated games in the Spanish calendar.
Barca are sitting in 2nd place 4 points behind Real and are facing into a 2 week winter break so a win is important for them. Statistically Barcelona are one of the strongest home teams around and have averaged almost 3 goals a game at home. With attacking talent all over the field it will take an immense effort to keep them out for 90 minutes. The only problem they have is the injury to Messi who’s a star man at the Nou camp.

Real, win lose or draw will be in first place for the Xmas holidays. Their away record reads (4 – 2- 2) and they have only failed to score in one away fixture averaging 2 goals a game. Like Barca they are filled with attacking options and can call on the likes of Robinho, Raul, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Baptista amongst others.

Verdict

Rather than going for a winner here I think the safer option is to take the over 2.5 goals choice. Last year the corresponding fixture finished 3 – 3, we may not get as many goals this time but we should still see three at least

PICK
Barcelona/Real Madrid over2.5 goals (1.8 @ stanjames) 4 points

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Blackburn V Chelsea


Theres no need to go into great detail here, Blackburns strongest 11 couldn’t beat a young Arsenal side midweek so is it fair to rule them out here? No in my opinion, they may not be playing well at the moment but they are still a hard side to get the better of. They are the kind of side that up their game for the visit of the “big teams” and Chelsea will certainly not have it all their own way at Ewood Park.
Their home record is all over the place, having recorded impressive results against Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle but being completely outclassed by Villa and tasting defeat to West Ham last time out.

Chelsea are crammed with stars but still lack that world class striker they need to open up any defence. Drogba is immense but when he is out, as he is tomorrow, they struggle to score. The loss of Terry for 6 weeks is also a massive blow to Chelsea as Grant’s side has conceded just 2 goals in 10 matches. They must now change things around and try to continue to play solid football at the back with Carvalho likely to take Terry’s place.
It’s interesting to note that the last 8 Chelsea away games have finished under 2.5


Verdict

I cant see many, if any goals in this one. Despite having Ballack back Chelsea struggle to find the killer touch up front, especially without Drogba. One goal may be enough to win this for either side and 1 – 0 to the Chelsea could be the outcome

PICK
Blackburn/Chelsea under 2.5 goals (1.72 @ expect) 4 points

Scorecast
F Lampard to score first and Chelsea to win 1 – 0
(33 @ vc bet) 1 point