Some Saturday picks

Liverpool V Portsmouth

I just cant back the home side here. Home odds of 1.45 or so are far too short in my opinion. Liverpool lost all hope of winning the Premiership when they went down 1 – 0 to Man United last week.
Their home form has not been so hot and Anfield is no longer the tough venue it once was for visiting sides (3 – 4 – 1) is not the kind of record that will win you the league title and its something that Benitez has to sort out quickly.
Steven Gerrard will captain the side, while Xabi Alonso came through Wednesday in one piece and should start. Crouch is suspended.

Its strange for me that you can get odds of 7 on Portsmouth, a team with the best away record in the league and they also have the same points total as Liverpool. Fair enough they have never won at Anfield but they have won their last 6 away games, a feat that’s hard to ignore. With the African Nations coming soon, Pompey require a strong Christmas campaign before they lose the likes of Muntari and Kanu in January.
Defender Noe Pamarot is out with a hamstring injury, with Hermann Hreidarsson set to fill in at left-back. Sean Davis is doubtful so Pedro Mendes should start.

Verdict
On their day Liverpool can rip anyone apart but they are not playing so well at the moment. The pressure is really on them to perform but I think that this Portsmouth side is just too good to write off. Il take Pompey +1 on the Asian handicap, as the odds of 1.98 @ betfred are still appealing to me.

PICK

Portsmouth + 1 (1.98 @ betfred) 3 points


Middlesborough V West Ham

Middlesborough recorded only their 4th win of the season last week against lowly Derby. It was their second win on the bounce too coming a week after that tremendous win over the Gunners. However when all is said and done its hard not to see Boro being involved in relegation fight come next may. Their general play has been poor and their main problem has been the lack of action up front. Only 16 goals scored all season. A statistic that reflects badly on them when you consider that only Derby have scored less than them. Tomorrow they will be without the suspended Rochemback but hope to include J Arca again. Both the midfielders S Downing and O'Neill are doubtful.

West Ham are having a decent season so far. They sit in 12th place and have a good record on the road. (4 – 1 – 3) although it has to be said they still have to travel to the Emirates , Old Trafford and Anfield. Their away stats may be blinded slightly by their 5 – 0 thrashing of Derby but it still has to be said that they are playing with heart and determination, obviously they don’t want to leave it too late this year.
They do have selection concerns at the moment though, C Cole is out suspended. Freddie Ljungberg is sidelined again with migraine’s. And finally Bellamy is still injured.

Verdict
Middlesborough may have won their last two but I think many are reading a little too much into their win over Arsenal. They raised their game 200% that day and that is an effort that they seem to save only for the big guns. West Ham have picked up more points on their travels for some reason. They don’t concede many away (1 in their last 4) and Boro don’t score too many in general. Low scoring draw is possible but i fancy the Hammers to sneak it

PICK
West Ham level ball (2.25 @ centrebet) 5 points


Walsall V Millwall

As I write its 9th place Walsall who entertain 20th place Millwall in this League 1 clash at the Banks stadium.

Walsall haven’t exactly set the world alight in their home fixtures so far but in more recent times they seem to have got some kind of rhythm going. Unbeaten in the last 4 at home, a stat that is made more impressive in that those results include a draw against Leeds and a 1 – 0 victory over high flying Nottingham Forest.
They are coming into a tough Christmas period in which they have 4 games in 10 days, Millwall on Saturday and then have a trip to Port Vale on Boxing Day, followed by a visit to Oldham on December 29 and a home fixture against Doncaster on New Year’s Day. Daniel Fox will be suspended after chalking up five bookings but otherwise the Saddlers have a full squad to chose from.

Walsall last 4 home games

Walsall 2 0 Cheltenham 03/11/2007
Walsall 0 0 Luton 17/11/2007
Walsall 1 0 Nott'm Forest 04/12/2007
Walsall 1 1 Leeds 15/12/2007

Milwall come into this game struggling in 20th place and their last away game was a fantastic 1 – 0 win over Leyton Orient. However they were turned over at home in their next game, letting a 2 – 1 lead slip to be defeated 3 – 2 by Oldham. On the road this year they have been poor. Although they have scored in the last 4 away fixtures goals have been the problem for them, with only 5 away goals to 15 conceded. The fact is that they have only taken 6 points from a possible 27 on their travels. Following the departure of Will Hoskins back to Watford and with Jay Simpson suspended, the return to fitness of a few key players is news that’s most welcome to boss Kenny Jackett. Dave Brammer, Richard Shaw and Neil Harris are fit enough for selection once again.

Milwall last four away games

Gillingham 1 1 Millwall 13/10/2007
Leeds 4 2 Millwall 27/10/2007
Bristol R. 2 1 Millwall 17/11/2007
Leyton O 0 1 Millwall 04/12/2007

The two already clashed in mid September when Walsall took all three points courtesy of a late Troy Deeney effort.

Verdict
Walsall seem to have got it together in the last few home games. A hugely impressive performances against Leeds last week has hopefully set them on track and if they can reproduce the type of play that they showed there then they should have enough to take 3 points from Milwall. The price of evens at bodog is too hard to ignore for me.
Walsall to win 1 – 0 or 2 - 1

PICK
Walsall win (2 @ bodog) 5 points